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How cognitive skills affect strategic behavior: Cognitive ability, fluid intelligence and judgment 认知技能如何影响战略行为:认知能力、流动智能和判断力
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.09.007
David Gill , Zachary Knepper , Victoria Prowse , Junya Zhou
We explore the influence of cognitive ability and judgment on strategic behavior in the beauty contest game (where the Nash equilibrium action is zero). Using the level-k model of bounded rationality, cognitive ability and judgment both predict higher level strategic thinking. However, individuals with better judgment choose zero less frequently, and we uncover a novel dynamic mechanism that sheds light on this pattern. Taken together, our results indicate that fluid (i.e., analytical) intelligence is a primary driver of strategic level-k thinking, while facets of judgment that are distinct from fluid intelligence drive the lower inclination of high judgment individuals to choose zero.
我们探讨了认知能力和判断力对选美比赛博弈(纳什均衡行动为零)中战略行为的影响。利用有界理性的 level-k 模型,认知能力和判断力都能预测更高层次的战略思维。然而,判断力更强的个体选择零的频率更低,我们发现了一种新的动态机制来揭示这种模式。综合来看,我们的研究结果表明,流体智力(即分析性智力)是策略水平-k 思维的主要驱动力,而与流体智力不同的判断力因素则会降低高判断力个体的零选择倾向。
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引用次数: 0
Stability vs. no justified envy 稳定与没有正当理由的嫉妒
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.10.002
Assaf Romm , Alvin E. Roth , Ran I. Shorrer
Stability and “no justified envy” are used almost synonymously in the matching theory literature. However, they are conceptually different and have logically separate properties. We generalize the definition of justified envy to environments with arbitrary school preferences, feasibility constraints, and contracts, and show that stable allocations may admit justified envy. When choice functions are substitutable, the outcome of the deferred acceptance algorithm is both stable and admits no justified envy.
在匹配理论文献中,稳定性和 "没有合理的嫉妒 "几乎是同义词。然而,它们在概念上是不同的,在逻辑上也有各自的属性。我们将有理由嫉妒的定义推广到具有任意学校偏好、可行性约束和合约的环境中,并证明稳定的分配可能承认有理由嫉妒。当选择函数可替代时,延迟接受算法的结果既稳定又不允许合理嫉妒。
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引用次数: 0
Towards data auctions with externalities 实现具有外部性的数据拍卖
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.09.008
Anish Agarwal, Munther Dahleh, Thibaut Horel, Maryann Rui
The design of data markets has gained importance as firms increasingly use machine learning models fueled by externally acquired training data. A key consideration is the externalities firms face when data, though inherently freely replicable, is allocated to competing firms. In this setting, we demonstrate that a data seller's optimal revenue increases as firms can pay to prevent allocations to others. To do so, we first reduce the combinatorial problem of allocating and pricing multiple datasets to the auction of a single digital good by modeling utility for data through the increase in prediction accuracy it provides. We then derive welfare and revenue maximizing mechanisms, highlighting how the form of firms' private information – whether the externalities one exerts on others is known, or vice-versa – affects the resulting structures. In all cases, under appropriate assumptions, the optimal allocation rule is a single threshold per firm, where either all data is allocated or none is.
随着企业越来越多地使用由外部获取的训练数据推动的机器学习模型,数据市场的设计变得越来越重要。一个关键的考虑因素是,当数据固有的可自由复制性被分配给竞争企业时,企业所面临的外部性问题。在这种情况下,我们证明了数据卖方的最优收入会增加,因为企业可以付费防止数据被分配给他人。为此,我们首先将多个数据集的分配和定价的组合问题简化为单一数字商品的拍卖问题,通过提高预测准确性来模拟数据的效用。然后,我们推导出福利和收益最大化的机制,并强调了企业私人信息的形式--企业对他人施加的外部效应是已知的,还是反之--如何影响由此产生的结构。在所有情况下,在适当的假设条件下,最优的分配规则是每个公司只有一个阈值,即要么分配所有数据,要么不分配任何数据。
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引用次数: 0
Ambiguity and informativeness of (non-)trading 非)贸易的模糊性和信息性
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.10.001
Yinxiao Chu
We study a sequential trading mechanism with ambiguity-averse agents modeled by multiple prior preferences. Informed traders generally mix between trading and non-trading, and their trading probability decreases with ambiguity. If agents are sufficiently ambiguous, informed traders do not trade, and only noise traders place orders; trading becomes uninformative. When signal accuracy is ambiguous, trading can make public beliefs more ambiguous over time, which leads to social learning failures in the long run. Moreover, since informed traders may not trade, no-trade can also be informative when signal accuracy is asymmetric. Even with continuous action spaces, sufficiently high ambiguity stops social learning.
我们研究的是一种以多重先验偏好为模型的模糊规避代理的顺序交易机制。知情交易者通常在交易和不交易之间进行混合,他们的交易概率随着模糊性的降低而降低。如果代理足够模糊,知情交易者就不会交易,只有噪音交易者才会下单;交易变得不具信息性。当信号准确性模糊时,交易会使公众信念随着时间的推移变得更加模糊,从而导致长期的社会学习失败。此外,由于知情交易者可能不会进行交易,因此当信号准确性不对称时,不交易也会提供信息。即使是连续的行动空间,足够高的模糊性也会阻止社会学习。
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引用次数: 0
Time for memorable consumption 值得纪念的消费时间
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.09.010
Stefania Minardi , Andrei Savochkin
A consumption event is memorable if the memory of the event affects well-being at times after the material consumption, as originally introduced by Gilboa et al. (2016). Our main contribution is to develop an axiomatic foundation of memorable consumption in a dynamic setting. Preferences are represented by the present value of the sum of utilities derived at each date from the current consumption and from recollecting the past. Our model accommodates well-known phenomena in psychology, such as the peak-end rule, duration neglect, and adaptation trends. We also provide foundations for a prominent special case of the representation with the Markovian property. The model is illustrated with applications in two different contexts: risk-taking behavior in a principal-agent problem and life-cycle consumption-savings decisions.
根据 Gilboa 等人(2016 年)的最初介绍,如果对消费事件的记忆会在物质消费之后的一段时间内影响人们的幸福感,那么该消费事件就是值得纪念的。我们的主要贡献是为动态环境中的记忆性消费建立了一个公理基础。偏好由每个日期从当前消费和回忆过去中获得的效用总和的现值来表示。我们的模型适用于心理学中众所周知的现象,如峰值结束规则、持续时间忽略和适应趋势。我们还为具有马尔可夫特性的表征的一个突出特例提供了基础。该模型在两种不同情况下的应用进行了说明:委托-代理问题中的冒险行为和生命周期消费-储蓄决策。
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引用次数: 0
Equilibria in matching markets with soft and hard liquidity constraints 具有流动性软约束和硬约束的匹配市场均衡点
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.09.014
P. Jean-Jacques Herings , Yu Zhou
We consider a one-to-one matching with contracts model in the presence of liquidity constraints on the buyer's side. Liquidity constraints can be either soft or hard. Competitive equilibria do exist in economies with soft liquidity constraints, but not necessarily in the presence of hard liquidity constraints. The limit of a convergent sequence of competitive equilibria in economies with increasingly stringent soft liquidity constraints may fail to be a competitive equilibrium in the limit economy with hard liquidity constraints. We establish equivalence and existence results for two alternative notions of competitive equilibrium, quantity-constrained competitive equilibrium and expectational equilibrium, together with stable outcomes and core outcomes, in economies with both types of liquidity constraints. We argue that these notions of equilibrium and stability do not suffer from discontinuity problems by showing appropriate limit results.
我们考虑的是在买方存在流动性限制的情况下的一对一匹配合同模型。流动性约束可以是软约束,也可以是硬约束。在存在流动性软约束的经济中确实存在竞争性均衡,但在存在流动性硬约束的情况下则不一定。在流动性软约束越来越严格的经济体中,竞争性均衡的收敛序列的极限可能无法成为流动性硬约束的极限经济体中的竞争性均衡。我们为具有两种流动性约束的经济体中的两种竞争性均衡概念,即数量约束竞争性均衡和预期均衡,以及稳定结果和核心结果,建立了等价性和存在性结果。我们通过展示适当的极限结果,论证了这些均衡和稳定概念并不存在不连续性问题。
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引用次数: 0
Ridge distributions and information design in simultaneous all-pay auction contests 同步全酬拍卖竞赛中的脊分布和信息设计
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.09.009
Zhonghong Kuang , Hangcheng Zhao , Jie Zheng
Two privately informed contestants compete in a contest, and the organizer ex-ante designs a public anonymous disclosure policy to maximize the contestants' total effort. We fully characterize ridge distributions, under which the organizer achieves the first-best outcome in equilibrium: the allocation is efficient, and the entire surplus goes to the organizer. When the prior is a mixture of a ridge distribution and a perfectly correlated distribution, the first-best outcome is achievable by a signal that solely generates ridge distributions as posteriors.
两个私下知情的参赛者在比赛中竞争,组织者事先设计了一个公开的匿名披露政策,以最大化参赛者的总努力。我们充分描述了脊分布的特征,在脊分布下,组织者会获得第一最优的均衡结果:分配是有效的,全部盈余都归组织者所有。当先验分布是脊分布和完全相关分布的混合物时,只产生脊分布作为后验的信号就能实现第一最优结果。
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引用次数: 0
Robust dynamic contracts with multiple agents 有多个代理的稳健动态合同
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.09.012
Yingjie Niu , Zhentao Zou
We develop a continuous-time dynamic multi-agent contracting model in which the principal is unsure about the distributions of the project's terminal payoffs and worries about model misspecification. With model uncertainty, workers' wages depend on the outputs of other unrelated projects and the optimal contracts exhibit overdetermination. We demonstrate an inverse U-shaped relationship between the extent of overdetermination and group size. Moreover, model uncertainty induces wage compression, especially in small firms as the empirical evidence demonstrates. Finally, expanding the group size increases the average project value by mitigating the negative impacts of ambiguity.
我们建立了一个连续时间动态多代理合同模型,在这个模型中,委托人不确定项目最终收益的分布,并担心模型的错误规范。在模型不确定的情况下,工人的工资取决于其他无关项目的产出,最优合同表现出过度确定性。我们证明了过度决定的程度与群体规模之间的反 U 型关系。此外,正如经验证据所证明的那样,模型的不确定性会导致工资压缩,尤其是在小企业中。最后,扩大集团规模可以减轻不确定性的负面影响,从而增加项目的平均价值。
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引用次数: 0
Commitment to the truth creates trust in market exchange: Experimental evidence 对真相的承诺在市场交换中产生信任:实验证据
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.09.011
Nicolas Jacquemet , Stéphane Luchini , Jason F. Shogren , Adam Zylbersztejn
Under incomplete contracts, the mutual belief in reciprocity facilitates how traders create value through economic exchange. Creating such beliefs among strangers can be challenging even when they are allowed to communicate, because communication is cheap. In this paper, we first extend the literature showing that a truth-telling oath increases honesty to a sequential trust game with pre-play, fixed-form, and cheap-talk communication. Our results confirm that the oath creates more trust and cooperative behavior thanks to an improvement in communication; but we also show that the oath induces selection into communication — it makes people more wary of using communication, precisely because communication speaks louder under oath. We next designed additional treatments featuring mild and deterrent fines for deception to measure the monetary equivalent of the non-monetary incentives implemented by a truth-telling oath. We find that the oath is behaviorally equivalent to mild fines. The deterrent fine induces the highest level of cooperation. Altogether, these results confirm that allowing for interactions under oath within a trust game with communication creates significantly more economic value than the identical exchange institutions without the oath.
在不完全契约下,互惠的共同信念有助于交易者通过经济交换创造价值。由于交流成本低廉,即使允许陌生人交流,在他们之间建立这种信念也是一项挑战。在本文中,我们首先将表明说真话的誓言会提高诚实度的文献扩展到一个具有预先博弈、固定形式和廉价交流的连续信任博弈中。我们的研究结果证实,由于沟通的改善,宣誓会产生更多的信任和合作行为;但我们也表明,宣誓会诱发对沟通的选择--它使人们更加警惕使用沟通,这正是因为在宣誓下沟通的声音更大。接下来,我们设计了额外的处理方法,对欺骗行为处以轻微的、具有威慑力的罚款,以衡量讲真话宣誓所实施的非货币激励的货币等效性。我们发现,宣誓在行为上等同于轻度罚款。具有威慑力的罚款则会诱发最高程度的合作。总之,这些结果证实,在有交流的信任博弈中,允许在宣誓的情况下进行互动所创造的经济价值远远高于没有宣誓的相同交换机构。
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引用次数: 0
Cognitive reflection in experimental anchored guessing games 实验锚定竞猜游戏中的认知反思
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.09.003
Coralio Ballester , Antonio Rodriguez-Moral , Marc Vorsatz
The cognitive reflection test or CRT (Frederick, 2005) has been found to be a reliable predictor of the degree of strategic sophistication of subjects in a variety of laboratory experiments. These studies have found that subjects who score higher in the CRT make choices that are closer to Nash equilibrium (i.e., Brañas-Garza et al., 2012). In an extended level-k model with free subjective beliefs, we theoretically decompose the closeness to equilibrium for the class of anchored guessing games introduced in Ballester et al. (2023) into two effects: subjects with a smaller distance to equilibrium must possess a higher reasoning level in the level-k hierarchy or their level-k iteration process must begin from a starting point (called “seed”) that is inherently more advantageously positioned, which translates into the concept of “seed distance” (or both). Our main experimental finding is that subjects with a higher CRT score play closer to equilibrium due to the fact that they iterate more often in their reasoning process (as in Brañas-Garza et al., 2012), yet we find no clear evidence that they have a smaller seed distance. We also find evidence of a learning or adaptation process, which can be characterized by a warm-up phase (in which subjects reduce their seed distance), followed by a learning phase (in which they increase their reasoning level, at a faster rate in subjects with higher CRT) and then a saturation phase in which no further improvements are made.
在各种实验室实验中,人们发现认知反思测试(CRT)(弗雷德里克,2005 年)可以可靠地预测受试者的战略复杂程度。这些研究发现,在 CRT 中得分较高的受试者做出的选择更接近纳什均衡(即 Brañas-Garza 等人,2012 年)。在一个具有自由主观信念的扩展水平-k 模型中,我们从理论上将 Ballester 等人(2023 年)中引入的锚定猜测博弈的均衡接近度分解为两种效应:与均衡距离较小的被试必须在水平-k 层次结构中拥有较高的推理水平,或者他们的水平-k 迭代过程必须从一个先天位置更有利的起点(称为 "种子")开始,这就转化为 "种子距离 "的概念(或两者兼而有之)。我们的主要实验发现是,CRT 分数较高的受试者在推理过程中迭代次数较多(如 Brañas-Garza et al.我们还发现了学习或适应过程的证据,这一过程的特点是热身阶段(在这一阶段,受试者会缩小他们的种子距离),随后是学习阶段(在这一阶段,受试者会提高他们的推理水平,CRT 越高的受试者推理水平提高得越快),然后是饱和阶段,在这一阶段,受试者的推理水平不会进一步提高。
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Games and Economic Behavior
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