The global COVID-19 pandemic interacted with existing societal challenges, including homelessness, to create a potentially transformative moment for public policy. Framed within the broader concept of a “polycrisis”—a convergence of interwoven and compounding crises—this study asks whether the pandemic produced a “critical juncture” in two European federal states, Germany and Italy, one that durably moved homelessness policy in a new direction. Drawing on neo- institutionalist theory, which posits that critical junctures can lock in new trajectories through self- reinforcing institutional changes, the paper analyzes whether the pandemic disrupted entrenched approaches centered on emergency shelters and catalyzed a shift toward “Housing First” and housing rights frameworks. With documentary research and expert interviews, it traces the evolution of pandemic-era housing policy innovations in the two countries, including eviction moratoriums, rental assistance, deconcentration of shelters, and hotel accommodations. While these measures were significant short-term adaptations, the research finds that many of these changes revert to pre-crisis arrangements, despite increasing EU and national interventions to end homelessness. This analysis contributes to understanding how crises can set in motion institutional change at different governmental levels. It also addresses the broader implications of emergency innovations in the context of global interconnectedness and risk.
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