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Terrorism clusters and inbound tourism flows: Unravelling the complex relationship using panel data and explainable machine learning 恐怖主义集群和入境旅游流量:使用面板数据和可解释的机器学习揭示复杂关系
IF 12.4 1区 管理学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2025.105355
Kun Zhang , Chaowu Xie , Hai Zhu , Jiangchi Zhang , Jun Yu , Songshan (Sam) Huang
The impact of terrorism clusters on inbound tourism flows remains underexplored. This study categorizes terrorism clusters into temporal, spatial, quantity, and casualty clusters and develops corresponding measurement tools. Using panel data from 152 countries and regions (2006–2019), we employ fixed-effects models and interpretable machine learning to investigate the complex relationship between terrorism clusters and inbound tourism flows. The findings reveal that all cluster types negatively impact inbound tourism flows, with casualty clusters exerting the greatest influence, followed by quantity and spatial clusters. Nonlinear relationships between inbound tourism flows and terrorism clusters exhibit threshold effects and inverted U-shaped relationships. Synergistic interactions among clusters, particularly those involving casualty clusters, significantly amplify the negative impact on inbound tourism flows. By elucidating these dynamics from a cluster perspective, this study advances the theoretical framework linking terrorism and inbound tourism flows and provides practical strategies for destination managers to mitigate the risks of terrorism clusters.
恐怖主义集群对入境旅游流量的影响仍未得到充分探讨。本研究将恐怖主义集群分为时间、空间、数量和伤亡集群,并开发相应的测量工具。利用来自152个国家和地区(2006-2019)的面板数据,我们采用固定效应模型和可解释性机器学习来研究恐怖主义集群与入境旅游流量之间的复杂关系。结果表明:所有集聚类型均对入境旅游流量产生负向影响,其中伤亡集聚对入境旅游流量的影响最大,其次是数量集聚和空间集聚;入境旅游流量与恐怖主义集群的非线性关系表现出阈值效应和倒u型关系。集群之间的协同作用,特别是涉及伤亡集群的协同作用,显著放大了对入境旅游流量的负面影响。本研究从集群的角度对这些动态进行了阐释,提出了恐怖主义与入境旅游流量关联的理论框架,并为目的地管理者降低恐怖主义集群风险提供了实践策略。
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引用次数: 0
Breaking the chain of contagion: Governing customer-to-customer misbehavior in tourism services 打破传染链:治理旅游服务中顾客对顾客的不当行为
IF 12.4 1区 管理学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2025.105354
Yu-Hao Zheng , Lu-Zi Lin , Tao Xu , Weiling Zhuang , Cai-Yao Li
Customer-to-customer (C2C) misbehavior is prevalent in tourism services, undermining tourists’ experiences and posing a significant management challenge due to its contagious nature. While frontline employee (FLE) intervention is critical for service recovery, the efficacy of different strategies remains underexplored. This study examines two types of normative appeals: descriptive appeals (emphasizing behavioral prevalence) and injunctive appeals (emphasizing rule enforcement). Across four experiments, the findings show that injunctive appeals such as enforcing rules or issuing warnings significantly increase bystanders compliance. Furthermore, individual differences in perceptions of organizational motives moderate these effects, as consumers with high levels of cynicism respond more positively to injunctive appeals. These findings refine the “customer-first” doctrine by demonstrating that rule-based interventions more effectively restore order and achieve genuine customer-centricity than undue accommodation. Over, this study advances theoretical understanding of bystander cognition and behavior in service encounters and provides actionable guidance for FLEs dealing with C2C misbehavior.
顾客对顾客(C2C)不当行为在旅游服务中普遍存在,破坏了游客的体验,并因其具有传染性而对管理构成重大挑战。虽然一线员工(FLE)干预对服务恢复至关重要,但不同策略的有效性仍未得到充分探讨。本研究考察了两种类型的规范性诉求:描述性诉求(强调行为的普遍性)和禁令性诉求(强调规则的执行)。在四个实验中,研究结果表明,强制执行规则或发出警告等禁令性上诉显著提高了旁观者的依从性。此外,组织动机感知的个体差异缓和了这些影响,因为愤世嫉俗程度高的消费者对禁令呼吁的反应更积极。这些发现通过证明基于规则的干预比过度迁就更有效地恢复秩序和实现真正的以客户为中心,从而完善了“客户至上”原则。此外,本研究对服务遭遇中旁观者的认知和行为进行了理论理解,并为员工应对C2C不当行为提供了可操作的指导。
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引用次数: 0
Seniors and the cessation of travel 老年人和停止旅行
IF 12.4 1区 管理学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2025.105344
Bob McKercher
This study examines why seniors might stop travelling. It is framed within lifespan development theory that posits that development is continuous and malleable throughout one's life, noted by a series of gains and losses. Losses are more prevalent as one ages, including the inevitable decision, forced or unforced, to stop travelling. Using a mixed method approach, the study determined that a broad array of reasons will influence the end of travel. Most seniors expect to continue to travel as long as they remain healthy. Ultimately, though, they will pass a threshold after which interest and/or ability will decline due to their own physical or cognitive decline, that of their spouse or travel partner, loss of independence and lower satisfaction. In the end, the diminished reward is not worth the effort involved in travelling. Interestingly, those who have stopped travelling rarely framed their decision as a function of constraints, and instead identified it as simply a reality of the aging process.
这项研究调查了老年人停止旅行的原因。它是在生命发展理论的框架内提出的,该理论认为,在一个人的一生中,发展是连续的和可塑的,由一系列的得与失引起。随着年龄的增长,损失会越来越普遍,包括被迫或非被迫停止旅行的不可避免的决定。该研究采用混合方法,确定了一系列广泛的原因将影响旅行的结束。大多数老年人只要身体健康就会继续旅行。然而,最终,他们会越过一个门槛,在这个门槛之后,由于他们自己的身体或认知能力的下降、他们的配偶或旅行伙伴的身体或认知能力的下降、独立性的丧失和满意度的降低,他们的兴趣和/或能力会下降。最终,减少的回报不值得你在旅行中付出努力。有趣的是,那些停止旅行的人很少把他们的决定归结为约束的作用,相反,他们认为这只是衰老过程的现实。
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引用次数: 0
Do good, feel luckier: How cause-related marketing in unpredictable tourism products boosts tourists’ purchase intention? 做得好,感觉更幸运:在不可预测的旅游产品中,原因营销如何促进游客的购买意愿?
IF 12.4 1区 管理学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2025.105349
Luqing Wang, Shanshi Li
Many attractive tourism products, such as the aurora borealis viewing or wildlife watching, inherently involve uncertainty, posing unique challenges for marketing. However, research on enhancing purchase intention for such unpredictable products remains limited. This study proposes that cause-related marketing, which links sales to charitable causes, offers a promising solution. Based on the karmic investment hypothesis, we argue that cause-related marketing is more effective than discounts in boosting purchase intention for unpredictable tourism products by activating karmic investment mechanisms—self-luck expectancy. Through an eye-tracking experiment, a quasi-experimental field study, and three scenario-based experiments, this research aims to investigate whether and how cause-related marketing (vs. discount) enhances purchase intention, and how this effect varies with different protagonist focus (consumer-focused vs. company-focused). The anticipated outcomes of this study will provide valuable insights for optimizing marketing strategies for unpredictable tourism products.
许多吸引人的旅游产品,如北极光观赏或野生动物观赏,本质上涉及不确定性,对营销提出了独特的挑战。然而,对于这种不可预测的产品,如何增强其购买意愿的研究还很有限。本研究提出,公益营销,将销售与慈善事业联系起来,提供了一个有希望的解决方案。基于因缘投资假说,我们认为因缘营销通过激活因缘投资机制——自我运气预期,在促进不可预测旅游产品购买意愿方面比折扣更有效。本研究通过眼动追踪实验、准实验实地研究和三个基于场景的实验,旨在探讨因果营销(vs.折扣)是否以及如何增强购买意愿,以及这种效果如何随着主角关注(消费者关注vs.公司关注)的不同而变化。本研究的预期结果将为优化不可预测旅游产品的营销策略提供有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Which message resonates with you? Unveiling effective framing strategies for regenerative tourism 哪条信息引起了你的共鸣?揭示再生旅游的有效框架战略
IF 12.4 1区 管理学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2025.105351
Dini Hajarrahmah , Nancy Gard McGehee , Juan Luis Nicolau , Mario Pandelaere
This study examines the effectiveness of framing strategies—diagnostic, prognostic, and motivational—in marketing regenerative tourism, drawing on the framing perspective within social movement theory and the concept of frame resonance. Using a sequential mixed-methods approach, Study 1 features 23 semi-structured in-depth interviews with Destination Management Organization (DMO) leaders and regenerative practitioners. Participants report that positive messaging combined with clear calls to action resonate strongly with tourists. Study 2 employs a between-subjects online experiment with respondents from the United States, the United Kingdom, and New Zealand to test these insights. Results reveal that framing strategies and frame resonance significantly influence tourists’ attitudes toward and intentions to participate in regenerative tourism. Theoretically, this research advances the application of framing strategies, frame resonance, and social movement theory in the context of regenerative tourism. Practically, it recommends that DMOs apply prognostic (solution-oriented) and motivational (call to action) framing that emphasizes experiential benefits and provides actionable steps to engage target audiences effectively.
本研究利用社会运动理论中的框架视角和框架共振的概念,考察了框架策略(诊断、预测和激励)在再生旅游营销中的有效性。研究1采用顺序混合方法,对目的地管理组织(DMO)领导人和再生从业者进行了23次半结构化深度访谈。参与者表示,积极的信息与明确的行动呼吁相结合,在游客中产生了强烈的共鸣。研究2采用受试者之间的在线实验,来自美国,英国和新西兰的受访者来测试这些见解。结果表明,框架策略和框架共振显著影响游客参与再生旅游的态度和意愿。在理论上,本研究推进了框架策略、框架共振和社会运动理论在再生旅游中的应用。实际上,它建议dmo应用预测(面向解决方案)和动机(呼吁行动)框架,强调经验效益,并提供可操作的步骤,以有效吸引目标受众。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of tourism intensity on destination economic resilience: Quasi-natural experiments based on double machine learning 旅游强度对目的地经济弹性的影响:基于双机器学习的准自然实验
IF 12.4 1区 管理学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2025.105353
Xuanming Ni , Yixuan Liu , Huimin Zhao
Some cities have become "internet celebrity cities" through the promotion of new media. Sudden tourism surges, typical of “internet-famous cities”, trigger resource misallocation and structural rigidity, reducing cities’ ability to withstand external shocks. Utilizing panel data from 279 Chinese cities spanning 2003 to 2022 and using a double machine learning (DML) model, we aims to unbiasedly estimate the linear average treatment effect of tourism intensity on destination economic resilience. Findings indicate that tourism intensity reduces destination economic resilience. Mechanism tests confirm that tourism intensity impedes both industrial rationalization and advancement, with stronger negative effects in midwestern, industry led, and lacking in resource endowments cities. These findings highlight the risks of overtourism and offer policy insights for fostering sustainable economic resilience through industrial diversification and strategic tourism management.
一些城市在新媒体的推动下成为“网红城市”。作为“网红城市”的典型特征,突如其来的旅游热潮引发了资源配置不当和结构僵化,降低了城市抵御外部冲击的能力。利用2003年至2022年279个中国城市的面板数据,利用双机器学习(DML)模型,无偏估计旅游强度对目的地经济弹性的线性平均处理效应。研究结果表明,旅游强度降低了目的地的经济弹性。机制检验证实,旅游强度对产业合理化和产业进步都有阻碍作用,在中西部、工业主导、资源禀赋不足的城市,其负面效应更强。这些发现突出了过度旅游的风险,并为通过产业多样化和战略性旅游管理促进可持续经济弹性提供了政策见解。
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引用次数: 0
Rivalry and market value: Extending event studies to competitive analysis in tourism firms 竞争与市场价值:将事件研究扩展到旅游公司的竞争分析
IF 12.4 1区 管理学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2025.105352
Hoyoung Shin , Abhinav Sharma , María Jesús Santa-María , Juan Luis Nicolau
The hospitality and tourism industry is characterized by oligopolistic market structures where firms' strategic actions have competitive implications. This study extends the application of the event study methodology to competitive analysis, examining how a subject hotel's promotional activity influences the market value of its rivals. While event studies in tourism research have primarily focused on firm-specific and industry-wide effects, limited attention has been given to competitive spillovers. With a sample of 441 competitive actions and 2,442 reactions we assess— in a two-dimensional framework—the role of firm size asymmetry and market perceptions of promotion success or failure. Our findings indicate that successful promotions generate positive spillovers for large rivals but no effect on small competitors. Conversely, failed promotions trigger market value reaction in rivals. These results provide new insights into competitive dynamics in tourism markets, demonstrating that firm size moderates the impact of promotional actions on rival firms' valuation.
酒店和旅游业的特点是寡头垄断的市场结构,其中公司的战略行动具有竞争影响。本研究将事件研究方法的应用扩展到竞争分析,研究主题酒店的促销活动如何影响其竞争对手的市场价值。虽然旅游研究中的事件研究主要集中在特定公司和全行业的影响上,但对竞争溢出的关注有限。我们以441个竞争行为和2442个反应为样本,在二维框架中评估了企业规模不对称和市场对促销成功或失败的认知的作用。我们的研究结果表明,成功的促销对大型竞争对手产生积极的溢出效应,但对小型竞争对手没有影响。相反,促销失败会引发竞争对手的市场价值反应。这些结果为旅游市场的竞争动态提供了新的见解,表明公司规模调节了促销行为对竞争对手公司估值的影响。
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引用次数: 0
How senses matter? Exploring the diverse impact of haptic and auditory clues in online reviews on hotel ratings 感官是如何起作用的?探索触觉和听觉线索对酒店评级在线评论的不同影响
IF 12.4 1区 管理学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2025.105350
Yi Liu , Xuan Gao , Ke Zhong , Kuiyi Liu
This paper conducts mixed methods, lexicon-based content analysis and experiments to explore the different influences of auditory and haptic sensory clues embedded in online reviews towards the hotel rating scores. In the first study, we innovatively created a dictionary for accurately capturing the haptic and auditory sensory clues from a well-known online booking platform. It was found that haptic and auditory sensory clues significantly influence user ratings, surpassing visual clues and sentiment scores, with haptic clues showing stronger predictive power (Study 1). The moderating role of experience valence was confirmed: in negative experiences, haptic clues had a greater impact on ratings than auditory clues, but this effect was not observed in positive experiences (Studies 1, 2, and 3). While haptic experiences lead to higher perceived hotel responsibility, this attribution significantly affects ratings only in negative sensory conditions (Study 3).
本文通过混合方法、基于词典的内容分析和实验来探讨在线评论中嵌入的听觉和触觉线索对酒店评分的不同影响。在第一个研究中,我们创新地创建了一个词典,用于准确捕获来自知名在线预订平台的触觉和听觉线索。研究发现,触觉和听觉线索显著影响用户评分,超过视觉线索和情绪得分,触觉线索表现出更强的预测能力(研究1)。经验效价的调节作用得到证实:在消极体验中,触觉线索比听觉线索对评分的影响更大,但在积极体验中没有观察到这种影响(研究1、2和3)。虽然触觉体验导致更高的感知酒店责任,但这种归因仅在负面感官条件下显著影响评分(研究3)。
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引用次数: 0
Stuck in place, the virtual sells: The influence of perceived social mobility on tourist responses to virtual influencers 停留在原地,虚拟销售:感知社会流动性对游客对虚拟影响者的反应的影响
IF 12.4 1区 管理学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2025.105347
Jihao Hu , Hanyu (Yuki) Chen , Yujie Zhao
Conventional wisdom suggests that consumers in regions with high perceived social mobility are more open and receptive to AI agents, such as virtual influencers. Contrary to this intuition, the current research (n = 11,731) reveals a counterintuitive effect in the tourism marketplace. Specifically, tourists with lower perceived social mobility tend to respond more favorably to virtual (vs. human) influencers (Study 1), and this effect is driven by an increased competitive mindset (Study 2). This effect is replicated by either measuring or manipulating social mobility perceptions (Study 3). Interestingly, the proposed effect reverses in a prosocial context, e.g., cause marketing, wherein low perceived social mobility instead reduces tourists’ preferences for virtual influencers (Study 4). Our supplementary study also replicates the effect in a real-world TikTok setting, featuring a real virtual influencer to enhance ecological validity. This work contributes to the virtual influencer marketing literature and provide managerial insights for tourism managers.
传统观点认为,在社会流动性较高的地区,消费者对虚拟网红等人工智能代理更开放、更容易接受。与这种直觉相反,目前的研究(n = 11,731)揭示了旅游市场的反直觉效应。具体而言,社会流动性较低的游客倾向于对虚拟(与真人)影响者做出更积极的反应(研究1),这种效应是由竞争心态增强所驱动的(研究2)。这种效应可以通过测量或操纵社会流动性感知来复制(研究3)。有趣的是,在亲社会背景下,所提出的效应相反,例如,在公益营销中,低感知的社会流动性反而降低了游客对虚拟影响者的偏好(研究4)。我们的补充研究还在现实世界的TikTok环境中复制了这一效果,其中包括一个真实的虚拟影响者,以提高生态有效性。这项工作有助于虚拟网红营销文献,并为旅游管理者提供管理见解。
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引用次数: 0
Not worth the paper they are printed on? The effectiveness of table signs in reducing buffet plate waste 不值得印在上面的纸?桌标在减少餐盘浪费方面的有效性
IF 12.4 1区 管理学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2025.105348
Anna K. Zinn , Danyelle Greene , Sergey Kozlov , Bettina Grün , Yash Pandey , Marius Portmann , Sara Dolnicar
All-you-can-eat buffets generate a substantial amount of food waste. Food production accounts for 26% of the world's total greenhouse gas emissions. Less food waste translates directly to carbon emission reductions. Buffet table signs are a frequently used communication tool in hotels and, if effective, represent a simple, cost-effective way to encourage guests not to overfill their plates. We tested several theory-based messages on table signs in a survey experiment (N = 500) and in a quasi-experimental field study at a hotel breakfast buffet, using average plate waste per guest in grams as the dependent variable. Several messages appeared promising in the survey. However, none reduced plate waste in the field, and two of them lowered guest satisfaction. With table signs widely used in hotels, this study demonstrates that this might be a risky strategy, which fails to achieve the intended outcome and can backfire in terms of the guest experience.
自助餐会产生大量的食物浪费。粮食生产占世界温室气体排放总量的26%。减少食物浪费直接转化为减少碳排放。自助餐桌上的标志是酒店里经常使用的沟通工具,如果有效的话,它是一种简单、经济的方式,可以鼓励客人不要吃得过多。我们在一个调查实验(N = 500)和一个准实验的酒店自助早餐现场研究中测试了几个基于理论的餐桌标志信息,以克为单位的每位客人的平均盘子浪费作为因变量。在调查中,有几条信息显得很有希望。然而,没有一家减少了现场的盘子浪费,其中两家降低了客人的满意度。随着餐桌标志在酒店的广泛使用,这项研究表明,这可能是一个有风险的策略,无法达到预期的结果,并可能在客人体验方面适得其反。
{"title":"Not worth the paper they are printed on? The effectiveness of table signs in reducing buffet plate waste","authors":"Anna K. Zinn ,&nbsp;Danyelle Greene ,&nbsp;Sergey Kozlov ,&nbsp;Bettina Grün ,&nbsp;Yash Pandey ,&nbsp;Marius Portmann ,&nbsp;Sara Dolnicar","doi":"10.1016/j.tourman.2025.105348","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tourman.2025.105348","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>All-you-can-eat buffets generate a substantial amount of food waste. Food production accounts for 26% of the world's total greenhouse gas emissions. Less food waste translates directly to carbon emission reductions. Buffet table signs are a frequently used communication tool in hotels and, if effective, represent a simple, cost-effective way to encourage guests not to overfill their plates. We tested several theory-based messages on table signs in a survey experiment (<em>N</em> = 500) and in a quasi-experimental field study at a hotel breakfast buffet, using average plate waste per guest in grams as the dependent variable. Several messages appeared promising in the survey. However, none reduced plate waste in the field, and two of them lowered guest satisfaction. With table signs widely used in hotels, this study demonstrates that this might be a risky strategy, which fails to achieve the intended outcome and can backfire in terms of the guest experience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48469,"journal":{"name":"Tourism Management","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 105348"},"PeriodicalIF":12.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145528686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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Tourism Management
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