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Implications of water conservation measures on urban water cycle: A review 节水措施对城市水循环的影响:综述
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.08.026
Hugo Jacque , Behzad Mozafari , Recep Kaan Dereli , Sarah Cotterill

Water conservation measures are a means of adapting to the increasing pressures on water supply in cities. However, its widespread adoption requires knowledge of its implications at the different levels of the urban water cycle. This paper aims to provide a holistic overview and global understanding of the opportunities, challenges and implications associated with the widespread adoption of water conservation measures on the urban water cycle. A systematic search was conducted to identify water conservation case studies within the municipal sector. The analysis of studies' results highlighted that water conservation can significantly reduce buildings' water use while also providing energy savings in both buildings and water utilities. Water conservation measures were found to be economically feasible in most cases, with relatively short payback periods, although conclusions were more nuanced when adopting alternative water sources. This suggests that water conservation measures may be a better option than supply-side solutions to maintain water supply in cities. However, their performance may be undermined by design problems or user behaviour. Therefore, education and communication are key drivers for their widespread adoption. Lower water demand resulting from the implementation of conservation measures may reduce the need for water systems upgrades, delaying major investments, but this may also adversely impact these systems, causing water quality issues in distribution networks, degrading the hydraulic performances of sewers, and altering wastewater treatment efficiencies. The widespread deployment of water conservation measures requires technical, financial, social, and political considerations. Further research is still required to better understand its implications for water systems, assess its impact on water and energy use, and support decision-makers in developing water conservation programmes.

节水措施是适应城市供水压力不断增加的一种手段。然而,要广泛采用节水措施,就必须了解其对城市水循环不同层面的影响。本文旨在对城市水循环中广泛采用节水措施所带来的机遇、挑战和影响进行全面概述和全球理解。为确定市政领域的节水案例研究,我们进行了系统搜索。对研究结果的分析突出表明,节水可以显著减少建筑物的用水量,同时还能为建筑物和供水部门节约能源。在大多数情况下,节水措施在经济上是可行的,投资回收期相对较短,但在采用替代水源时,结论则更为细微。这表明,在维持城市供水方面,节水措施可能是比供应方解决方案更好的选择。然而,设计问题或用户行为可能会影响节水措施的效果。因此,教育和宣传是广泛采用节水措施的关键因素。实施节水措施后,需水量的减少可能会降低对供水系统改造的需求,从而推迟重大投资,但这也可能会对这些系统产生不利影响,导致配水管网出现水质问题,降低下水道的水力性能,改变污水处理效率。广泛采用节水措施需要考虑技术、财政、社会和政治因素。为了更好地理解节水对供水系统的影响,评估节水对用水和用能的影响,支持决策者制定节水计划,还需要开展进一步的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Seeking a better path for the circular economy of solar panels: Global sensitivity analysis focused on socioeconomic and physical factors 为太阳能电池板的循环经济寻求更好的途径:以社会经济和物理因素为重点的全球敏感性分析
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.08.027
Ken Matsuoka , Yusuke Fujii , Nobuaki Shinojima , Tatsuya Kojima , Ryu Koide , Shinsuke Murakami

As more solar photovoltaic panels are expected to be introduced globally to promote the stabilization and decarbonization of electricity supply, concerns have been raised about the associated resource constraints and the environmental impacts. To promote circular economy initiatives, this study aims to provide insight into the variables and the conditions that play a key role in the expression of environmental impacts and find the better path for a circular economy of solar panels, which requires analyzing impacts on multiple indicators as a result of various factors and their cross-interactions. To achieve this goal, we constructed a resource circulation simulator that considers factors related to the business environment as well as physical factors. The simulation model was then applied to the largest administrative region in Japan, and the parameter space was explored by combining Regional Sensitivity Analysis, a global sensitivity analysis method, and Random Forest to consider the interactions among these variables. As a result of 30,000 Monte Carlo simulations performed on 26 input variables, it was found that the key parameters in final disposal and resource consumption potential differ between the two purposes; avoiding catastrophic loads and achieving ambitious reductions. In contrast, for greenhouse gas emissions, it is important to maintain or increase the efficiency of photovoltaic panel power generation for both purposes. Additionally, in the case where the key variables were optimized in terms of final disposal/resource consumption potential, it will effectively reduce the two impacts to 0.7 % and 12.6 %, respectively, with a minimal negative impact on greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, in the case when optimized in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, it has only a small impact on greenhouse gas emissions and large negative impacts on final disposal and resource consumption potential. Further refinement of the parameter space and thresholds in the analysis is a topic for future research.

为促进电力供应的稳定化和去碳化,预计全球将采用更多的太阳能光伏板,与此同时,相关的资源限制和环境影响也引起了人们的关注。为了推动循环经济倡议,本研究旨在深入了解对环境影响的表现起关键作用的变量和条件,并找到太阳能电池板循环经济的更好路径,这需要分析各种因素及其交叉相互作用对多个指标的影响。为了实现这一目标,我们构建了一个资源循环模拟器,考虑了与商业环境相关的因素以及物理因素。然后将该模拟模型应用于日本最大的行政区域,并通过结合区域敏感性分析、全局敏感性分析方法和随机森林来探索参数空间,以考虑这些变量之间的相互作用。对 26 个输入变量进行了 30,000 次蒙特卡罗模拟,结果发现,最终处置和资源消耗潜力的关键参数在避免灾难性负荷和实现大幅减排这两个目的之间存在差异。相比之下,在温室气体排放方面,维持或提高光伏板发电效率对这两种目的都很重要。此外,如果从最终处置/资源消耗潜力的角度对关键变量进行优化,将有效地把这两种影响分别降低到 0.7% 和 12.6%,而对温室气体排放的负面影响则微乎其微。相反,如果从温室气体排放的角度进行优化,则对温室气体排放的影响很小,而对最终处置和资源消耗潜力的负面影响很大。进一步完善分析中的参数空间和阈值是今后的研究课题。
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引用次数: 0
Driving EU sustainability: Promoting the circular economy through municipal waste efficiency 推动欧盟的可持续发展:通过提高城市废物效率促进循环经济
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.08.022
Idiano D'Adamo , Cinzia Daraio , Simone Di Leo , Massimo Gastaldi , Edouard Nicolas Rossi

The need to balance ecosystems and ensure the well-being of all people underlines the urgency of closing product life cycles. In recent years, the circular economy (CE) has emerged as one of the most relevant factors in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. This paper presents a systematic literature review (SLR) of waste management efficiency at the European level. Furthermore, it presents a standard data envelopment analysis (DEA) of 27 European countries over the period 2017–2021, focused on municipal waste. Three models (i.e., economic, technical, sustainable) are proposed to optimise the rates of municipal waste recycling and circular material use.

The SLR, based on an initial set of 216 articles that was subsequently refined through double screening to 31, highlights the strategic role of the waste management, recycling and municipal solid waste triangle. The results of the DEA indicate stronger synergy between technical and sustainability dimensions than between economic and sustainability components. Moreover, they highlight fragmented performance in Europe, with distinct clusters of countries emerging as top performers in each of the three models, and the Netherlands, Slovenia, France, Italy, Germany and Sweden demonstrating superior performance for both CE outcomes and sustainable performance. Overall, the results emphasise the strategic role played by technology in facilitating an efficient circular model of municipal waste management to minimise landfilling and other environmentally detrimental practices, thereby stimulating the development of sustainable communities for optimised waste management, in line with broader sustainability objectives.

平衡生态系统和确保全人类福祉的必要性凸显了关闭产品生命周期的紧迫性。近年来,循环经济(CE)已成为实现可持续发展目标的最重要因素之一。本文对欧洲层面的废物管理效率进行了系统的文献综述(SLR)。此外,本文还介绍了 2017-2021 年期间 27 个欧洲国家的标准数据包络分析(DEA),重点关注城市废物。SLR以最初的216篇文章为基础,经过双重筛选,最终精简为31篇,突出了废物管理、回收利用和城市固体废物三角的战略作用。DEA 的结果表明,技术和可持续性层面之间的协同作用要强于经济和可持续性组成部分之间的协同作用。此外,这些结果还凸显了欧洲的分散绩效,在三种模式中,每种模式都有表现最佳的国家集群,荷兰、斯洛文尼亚、法国、意大利、德国和瑞典在行政首长协调会成果和可持续绩效方面都表现出色。总体而言,研究结果强调了技术在促进城市废物管理的高效循环模式方面所发挥的战略作用,以最大限度地减少填埋和其他有害环境的做法,从而促进可持续社区的发展,优化废物管理,实现更广泛的可持续发展目标。
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引用次数: 0
Barriers and enablers for the adoption of sustainable design practices using new design methods – Accelerating the sustainability transformation in the manufacturing industry 使用新设计方法采用可持续设计做法的障碍和推动因素 - 加快制造业的可持续转型
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.08.023
Adam Mallalieu , Sophie Isaksson Hallstedt , Ola Isaksson , Matilda Watz , Lars Almefelt
Product development and manufacturing organizations struggle in their sustainability transformation and do not sufficiently contribute to sustainable production and consumption. Design researchers, at the same time, develop and propose a plethora of new and improved design methods that can support the manufacturing industry in such transformation. It is, despite this, well-documented in literature that the industrial adoption of such proposed design methods is challenging. Previous research in the design domain has mainly studied this issue from a process and methodological perspective, whereas previous research in the management domain instead has focused on organizational, and human-behavioral aspects. This poses a research gap for more interdisciplinary research that studies the adoption of design methods from all three perspectives (i.e., process and methodology, organization, and human behavior). Six parallel case studies were carried out with three different product development and manufacturing organizations to collect qualitative empirical data. Glaserian grounded theory was used to analyze the collected data. This resulted in a descriptive framework that captures 53 interdisciplinary factors influencing the adoption of sustainable design practices using new and improved design methods. The descriptive framework is compared to interdisciplinary literature to further clarify and explain the findings, highlighting both practical and theoretical implications. This research provides three main contributions to theory and practice: (1) Two new concepts are introduced and used to explain the empirical findings, which are referred to as the dualism of design methods, and the situational design problem; (2) Nine systemic barriers and eight propositions are formulated, which highlight the need for a paradigm shift in how design is practiced in industry, how cognitive biases inside organizations can lead to a state of pseudo-sustainability, and the need for improved information and data management capabilities in organizations; (3) Sustainable design thinking is proposed as an potential enabler to address several of the main barriers, as it aims to provide a base competence of sustainable design to systematically challenge cognitive biases inside organizations.
产品开发和制造组织在可持续发展转型方面举步维艰,没有为可持续生产和消费做出足够的贡献。与此同时,设计研究人员开发并提出了大量新的、经过改进的设计方法,以支持制造业进行这种转型。尽管如此,有文献充分证明,工业界采用这些建议的设计方法具有挑战性。以往在设计领域的研究主要是从流程和方法的角度来研究这个问题,而以往在管理领域的研究则侧重于组织和人类行为方面。这就造成了一个研究空白,需要更多的跨学科研究,从所有三个角度(即过程和方法、组织和人类行为)来研究设计方法的采用。我们对三个不同的产品开发和制造组织进行了六项平行案例研究,以收集定性经验数据。格拉塞基础理论被用来分析收集到的数据。最终形成了一个描述性框架,其中包含 53 个影响采用新的和改进的设计方法进行可持续设计实践的跨学科因素。该描述性框架与跨学科文献进行了比较,以进一步澄清和解释研究结果,突出了实践和理论意义。本研究为理论和实践做出了三大贡献:(1) 引入并使用了两个新概念来解释实证研究结果,这两个概念被称为设计方法的二元论和情境设计问题;(2) 提出了九个系统性障碍和八个命题,这些障碍和命题强调了工业设计实践范式转变的必要性、组织内部的认知偏差如何导致伪可持续性状态,以及提高组织信息和数据管理能力的必要性;(3) 可持续设计思维旨在提供可持续设计的基本能力,系统地挑战组织内部的认知偏差,因此被认为是解决几个主要障碍的潜在推动因素。
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引用次数: 0
Regional carbon inequality prediction in China based on shared socioeconomic pathways: A human well-being equity perspective 基于共同社会经济路径的中国地区碳不平等预测:人类福祉公平视角
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.08.020
Miaomiao Yang , Xiaoying Liang , Hai Chen , Yuhe Ma , Gulibaiheremu Aihemaiti

Carbon inequality is strongly related to economic development and human well-being (HWB) improvements. However, relatively little research has been undertaken to predict future interregional carbon inequality in China from an HWB equity perspective based on scenarios combining shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and carbon reduction policies. The biproportional scaling method named after economist Richard Stone (RAS) was used to predict China's 2020 to 2050 multiregional input–output (MRIO) tables. Then, these MRIO tables were used to simulate future net carbon emissions (NCEs) and net human well-being (NWB) transfers under the SSP1–1.5 °C, SSP1-NEU, SSP2-2 °C and SSP5-BAU scenarios. China's interregional carbon inequality was predicted under different scenarios to clarify the ideal path for mitigating carbon inequality. In the SSP1–1.5 °C, SSP1-NEU, SSP2-2 °C and SSP5-BAU scenarios, the total carbon emissions (CEs) clearly decrease, whereas the total HWB clearly increases. Transfers of NCEs between regions increases, and transfers of NWB between regions decreases in each of the four scenarios. According to the mean regional environmental inequality (REI) value, China's interregional carbon inequality is relatively low under the SSP1–1.5 °C and SSP1-NEU scenarios and relatively high under the SSP2–2 °C and SSP5-BAU scenarios. Mitigating interregional carbon inequality is a long-term and arduous task that requires commitments from governments, businesses and society. These findings clarify the optimal path for China to reduce carbon inequality in the future and provide a theoretical basis for government agencies to rationally adjust the current development model. Furthermore, they provide a supportive reference to help other economies achieve equitable and sustainable development.

碳不平等与经济发展和人类福祉(HWB)改善密切相关。然而,基于共同社会经济路径(SSP)和碳减排政策的情景,从人类福祉公平的角度预测中国未来区域间碳不平等的研究相对较少。以经济学家理查德-斯通(Richard Stone)命名的双比例缩放法(RAS)被用来预测中国 2020 至 2050 年的多区域投入产出表(MRIO)。然后,在 SSP1-1.5°C、SSP1-NEU、SSP2-2°C 和 SSP5-BAU 情景下,使用这些 MRIO 表模拟未来的净碳排放(NCEs)和净人类福祉(NWB)转移。通过预测不同情景下中国区域间的碳不平等,明确减缓碳不平等的理想路径。在SSP1-1.5 °C、SSP1-NEU、SSP2-2 °C和SSP5-BAU情景下,碳排放总量(CEs)明显减少,而碳排放总量(HWB)明显增加。在这四种情景中,区域间的净碳排放转移增加,而区域间的净生物量转移减少。根据区域环境不平等(REI)均值,在SSP1-1.5 °C和SSP1-NEU情景下,中国区域间碳不平等程度相对较低,而在SSP2-2 °C和SSP5-BAU情景下,中国区域间碳不平等程度相对较高。减缓区域间碳不平等是一项长期而艰巨的任务,需要政府、企业和社会的承诺。这些研究结果明确了中国未来减少碳不平等的最优路径,为政府部门合理调整当前发展模式提供了理论依据。此外,它们还为帮助其他经济体实现公平和可持续发展提供了支持性参考。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating emerging technologies deployed at scale within prospective life cycle assessments 将大规模部署的新兴技术纳入预期生命周期评估
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.08.016
Margarita A. Charalambous , Romain Sacchi , Victor Tulus , Gonzalo Guillén-Gosálbez

Climate policies will strongly affect future supply chains in ways that can be predicted using integrated assessment models (IAMs). The outcomes of IAMs are now being used to conduct prospective life cycle assessments (pLCA) where the background data reflects expected future changes in the economy. However, the technological representation of emerging technologies is often limited in IAMs, which cover a reduced number of routes, thus offering limited insights into their role in future scenarios. This study addresses this gap by integrating emerging technologies omitted in IAMs into future markets, providing a more robust foundation for pLCAs. Diesel, widely used in transportation, heating, and power systems, has established itself as an integral part of the world's infrastructure. Hence, to illustrate our approach, here we analyze the future environmental impacts of heavy-duty trucks fueled with synthetic Fischer-Tropsch e-diesel, incorporating our technology in the diesel market of the background system, through an integrated LCA approach. The standard non-integrated LCA would analyze these technologies in the foreground, assuming that the background is given. In contrast, our integrated LCA, which is particularly suited for cases where technologies in the foreground are deployed at scale, makes both systems consistent with each other. Our findings reveal mismatches in climate impacts depending on the climate pathway and technology of up to 35 % between the integrated and non-integrated approaches, which increase over time, particularly from 2020 to 2050, and are more pronounced when assessing highly carbon-negative or carbon-positive technologies. Overall, we stress the importance of having consistent foreground and background systems for performing more meaningful and accurate LCAs. Moreover, we provide detailed guidelines on implementing such integrated analysis in current software packages, aiming to enhance the reliability of pLCAs for emerging technologies.

气候政策将对未来的供应链产生重大影响,而这些影响的方式可以通过综合评估模型(IAMs)进行预测。目前,综合评估模型的结果正被用于开展前瞻性生命周期评估(pLCA),其背景数据反映了未来经济的预期变化。然而,在综合评估模型中,新兴技术的技术代表性往往有限,所涵盖的路线数量也较少,因此对新兴技术在未来情景中的作用所提供的见解有限。本研究通过将 IAMs 中遗漏的新兴技术整合到未来市场中,为 pLCAs 提供了更坚实的基础,从而弥补了这一不足。柴油广泛应用于交通、供热和电力系统,已成为全球基础设施不可或缺的一部分。因此,为了说明我们的方法,我们在此通过综合生命周期评估方法,分析以合成费托合成电子柴油为燃料的重型卡车的未来环境影响,并将我们的技术纳入背景系统的柴油市场。标准的非综合生命周期评估将在假设背景已给定的情况下,对前景中的这些技术进行分析。相比之下,我们的综合生命周期评估特别适用于前景技术大规模部署的情况,使两个系统相互一致。我们的研究结果表明,根据不同的气候路径和技术,综合方法与非综合方法之间的气候影响不匹配程度高达 35%,这种不匹配程度随着时间的推移而增加,尤其是从 2020 年到 2050 年,在评估高碳负或碳正技术时这种不匹配程度更为明显。总之,我们强调了拥有一致的前景和背景系统对于执行更有意义、更准确的生命周期评估的重要性。此外,我们还提供了在现有软件包中实施此类综合分析的详细指南,旨在提高新兴技术的 pLCAs 的可靠性。
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引用次数: 0
System simulation and multi-objective optimization methodology for sustainable municipal solid waste classification management: A case study in China 可持续城市固体废物分类管理的系统模拟和多目标优化方法:中国案例研究
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.08.014
Jiayue Zhang , Zongguo Wen , Yupeng Hu , Fan Fei , Yihan Wang , Yiling Xie

Cities worldwide are actively implementing waste classification policies to develop efficient waste management systems that address the growing challenges of waste disposal and promote sustainable development. However, selecting tailored waste classification solutions is challenging due to the intricate interrelationships within the system and the complex trade-offs between different management objectives. This study presents a comprehensive methodology that simulates the entire waste classification management system by integrating the stages of waste generation, source classification, and final disposal, all linked by waste quantities and properties. A multi-objective optimization model is employed to identify optimal technical pathways that balance economic, environmental, and energy objectives. This methodology was applied in Zhangjiagang, a medium-sized city in China, revealing that economically optimal solutions focusing on landfill and composting as disposal pathways could exacerbate environmental impacts, with indicators deteriorating by 23.1 %–419.1 % except for freshwater eutrophication potential. In contrast, a multi-objective optimization solution prioritizing incineration and anaerobic digestion achieves environmental and energy benefits valued at 18.7 USD/t, with a modest increase in economic costs of 5.7 USD/t compared to the base year. The unconstrained optimal scenarios achieve net negative environmental costs and recover 2.0 × 106 MJ of energy. The study recommends moderate and dynamically adjusted kitchen waste separation rates depending on the stage of implementation. Additionally, the findings reveal that the “lock-in” effects of mismatched disposal facilities can significantly escalate costs. In conclusion, this study underscores the importance of systematic design and multi-objective optimization, offering a comprehensive methodology for cities aiming to enhance their waste classification strategies.

世界各地的城市都在积极实施垃圾分类政策,以建立高效的垃圾管理系统,应对日益严峻的垃圾处理挑战,促进可持续发展。然而,由于系统内部错综复杂的相互关系以及不同管理目标之间复杂的权衡,选择量身定制的垃圾分类解决方案具有挑战性。本研究提出了一种综合方法,通过整合废物产生、源头分类和最终处置等阶段,模拟整个废物分类管理系统,所有这些阶段都与废物数量和属性相关联。采用多目标优化模型来确定兼顾经济、环境和能源目标的最佳技术路径。该方法被应用于中国的一个中等城市张家港,结果表明,以填埋和堆肥为处置途径的经济最优解决方案可能会加剧对环境的影响,除淡水富营养化潜力外,其他指标会恶化 23.1 %-419.1 %。相比之下,优先考虑焚烧和厌氧消化的多目标优化方案可实现 18.7 美元/吨的环境和能源效益,与基准年相比,经济成本略微增加 5.7 美元/吨。无约束的最佳方案实现了环境成本的净负值,并回收了 2.0 × 106 兆焦耳的能量。研究建议根据实施阶段适度动态调整厨余垃圾分类率。此外,研究结果表明,不匹配的处理设施所产生的 "锁定 "效应会大大增加成本。总之,这项研究强调了系统设计和多目标优化的重要性,为旨在加强垃圾分类战略的城市提供了一套全面的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of carbon peak achievement at the provincial level in China: Construction of ensemble prediction models and Monte Carlo simulation 中国省级碳峰值成果分析:集合预测模型的构建与蒙特卡罗模拟
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.08.015
Xinyu Xia , Bin Liu , Qinxiang Wang , Tonghui Luo , Wenjing Zhu , Ke Pan , Zhongli Zhou

As China advances toward its carbon peaking goals, many regions face the challenge of balancing rapid economic growth with sustainable development. Evaluating carbon emissions at the provincial level is crucial for formulating effective strategies to achieve China's carbon peak targets. This study aims to construct an accurate model for predicting carbon emissions and to explore the evolution of these emissions across Chinese provinces, as well as their contributions to national carbon peak targets. Using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory, the 30 provinces were categorized into groups. An ensemble carbon emissions forecasting model was developed by integrating time-series models with multifactor models. Three scenarios were established within the framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Monte Carlo simulations were employed to explore potential pathways to achieve carbon peaks. The results indicate that China will reach its carbon emission peak between 2030 and 2031, with peak values expected to range between 11,499.65 and 11,629.51 Mt. Significant differences were observed among the provincial groups in their contributions to carbon peaking. Groups II and III are projected to peak in 2030 and 2022, respectively, while Groups I and IV face greater challenges, with peak years projected between 2032–2035 and 2031–2034, respectively. Four tiers with different emission reduction responsibilities were identified by comparing the peak times of the 30 provinces under the three scenarios, and optimal recommendations for achieving carbon peaks were proposed for each province. The accurate prediction models and Monte Carlo simulations provide reliable results for achieving carbon peak targets across Chinese provinces, offering a scientific basis for optimizing national carbon emission reduction policies.

随着中国向碳峰值目标迈进,许多地区都面临着如何平衡经济快速增长与可持续发展的挑战。评估省一级的碳排放量对于制定有效战略以实现中国的碳峰值目标至关重要。本研究旨在构建一个准确的碳排放预测模型,并探索中国各省碳排放的变化情况,以及它们对全国碳峰值目标的贡献。利用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论,对 30 个省份进行了分组。通过将时间序列模型与多因素模型相结合,建立了碳排放集合预测模型。在共同社会经济路径(SSPs)和代表性浓度路径(RCPs)的框架内,建立了三种情景。采用蒙特卡罗模拟来探索实现碳峰值的潜在路径。结果表明,中国将在 2030 至 2031 年达到碳排放峰值,峰值预计在 11,499.65 至 11,629.51 兆吨之间。第二组和第三组预计分别在 2030 年和 2022 年达到峰值,而第一组和第四组面临的挑战更大,预计峰值年份分别在 2032-2035 年和 2031-2034 年之间。通过比较三种情景下 30 个省份的峰值时间,确定了减排责任不同的四个层级,并为每个省份提出了实现碳峰值的最优建议。精确的预测模型和蒙特卡洛模拟为中国各省实现碳峰值目标提供了可靠的结果,为优化国家碳减排政策提供了科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
Advancing circular economy approaches in plastic waste management: A systematic literature review in developing economies 在塑料废物管理中推进循环经济方法:发展中经济体的系统文献综述
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.08.018
Abu Hanifah Mohammad Ramli , Latifah Abd Manaf , Zufarzaana Zulkeflee , Sapto Andriyono
Global plastic pollution is a major environmental problem, and regions with developing economies have particular obstacles in properly managing plastic waste. Despite growing awareness of the need for sustainable solutions, research on implementing circular economy principles in plastic waste management remains insufficient, especially in the developing economies. In response to this research gap, this study aims to conduct a systematic literature review focusing on circular economy strategies for plastic waste management in developing economies. The current research employed a synthesis of various research methodologies, adhering to the ROSES (RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Syntheses) publication standard. Utilizing a systematic approach, this study identified relevant articles from two primary online databases, Scopus and Science Direct. Four (4) main themes where identified, namely (i) the Circular Economy Strategies; ii) Policy and Regulation; iii) Community Engagement and Awareness; and lastly; iv) Technological Innovations and sub-divided into another eleven (11) sub-themes. In the end, sixteen (16) articles were meticulously selected and thoroughly analyzed to provide an in-depth comprehension to meet the study's objectives. For future study recommendations, it is suggested for scholar to integrate Policy and Regulation with Circular Economy Strategies in developing economies, include region-specific studies to understand local challenges and solutions, and conduct longitudinal research to evaluate the long-term environmental, economic, and social impacts of circular economy strategies implementation at which will benefits the people from the developing economies regions.
全球塑料污染是一个重大的环境问题,发展中经济体地区在妥善管理塑料废物方面面临特殊障碍。尽管人们越来越意识到需要可持续的解决方案,但有关在塑料废物管理中实施循环经济原则的研究仍然不足,尤其是在发展中经济体。针对这一研究空白,本研究旨在对发展中经济体塑料废物管理的循环经济战略进行系统的文献综述。目前的研究采用了多种研究方法的综合,并遵循了 ROSES(RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Syntheses)出版标准。本研究采用系统方法,从 Scopus 和 Science Direct 两个主要在线数据库中确定了相关文章。研究确定了四(4)个主题,即(i)循环经济战略;(ii)政策和法规;(iii)社区参与和意识;以及(iv)技术创新,并将其细分为另外十一(11)个次主题。最后,对十六(16)篇文章进行了精心挑选和全面分析,以提供深入的理解,从而实现研究目标。对于未来的研究建议,建议学者将政策和法规与发展中经济体的循环经济战略结合起来,纳入针对特定地区的研究以了解当地的挑战和解决方案,并开展纵向研究以评估循环经济战略实施对环境、经济和社会的长期影响,从而造福发展中经济体地区的人民。
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引用次数: 0
Greenhouse gas emissions and crop-specific emission factors of eight upland crops based on a six-year field experiment in the North China Plain 基于华北平原六年田间试验的八种高地作物的温室气体排放量和作物特定排放因子
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.08.013
Xiaolin Yang , Sien Li , Taisheng Du , Shaozhong Kang , Kadambot H.M. Siddique , Klaus Butterbach-Bahl

Nitrous oxide is a significant greenhouse gas (GHG) contributor in crop production, yet detailed documentation, including crop yields and specific emission factors (EFd of N2O), are lacking for the North China Plain. A six-year (2016–2022) diversified crop rotation experiment in this region examined GHG emissions from eight crops (sweet potato, peanut, soybean, spring maize, sweet sorghum, ryegrass, summer maize, and winter wheat) and fallow seasons. The results revealed that summer maize had the highest cumulative soil N2O emissions (5.07 kg N ha−1), with an average flux value of 225.3 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1 during the growing season. Summer maize emitted 16–75 % more N2O than spring crops and winter wheat and 85–86 % more than ryegrass (cover crop) and the winter fallow season. All eight crops acted as weak net CH4 sinks. Annual average CO2-equivalents of N2O and CH4 emissions reflected N2O emissions from all crops and fallow seasons. In addition, GHG footprint metrics (GFa, per unit area; GFy, per kg equivalent yield; GFb, per kg biomass; GFe, per unit economic benefit) based on life cycle assessment thinking showed that intensive cereal crops (winter wheat and summer maize) had the highest GHG footprints, while sweet potato had the lowest due to its greater biomass and lower N input. Other crops had 19–90 % lower GHG footprints than wheat and maize. Furthermore, we also quantified specific-crop EFd of N2O, with ryegrass having the lowest EFd (0.48 ± 0.02 %), followed by winter wheat (0.81 ± 0.43 %), and other crops ranging from 1.00 ± 0.13 % to 2.36 ± 0.85 %. This study provides important emissions data for different crops and winter fallow periods, enhancing our understanding of GHG footprints and emission factors, which are essential for the advancement of sustainable agriculture practices.

氧化亚氮是农作物生产中的重要温室气体(GHG)来源,但华北平原缺乏包括作物产量和具体氧化亚氮排放因子(EFd of N2O)在内的详细记录。在该地区进行的一项为期六年(2016-2022 年)的多样化轮作试验考察了八种作物(甘薯、花生、大豆、春玉米、甜高粱、黑麦草、夏玉米和冬小麦)和休耕季节的温室气体排放量。结果表明,夏玉米的土壤 N2O 累积排放量最高(5.07 千克 N 公顷-1),生长季节的平均通量值为 225.3 μg N2O-N m-2 h-1。夏玉米的 N2O 排放量比春播作物和冬小麦高 16-75%,比黑麦草(覆盖作物)和冬季休耕期高 85-86%。所有八种作物都是微弱的甲烷净吸收汇。N2O 和 CH4 的年均 CO2 排放当量反映了所有作物和休耕季节的 N2O 排放量。此外,基于生命周期评估思想的温室气体足迹指标(GFa,单位面积;GFy,每公斤当量产量;GFb,每公斤生物量;GFe,单位经济效益)显示,密集型谷类作物(冬小麦和夏玉米)的温室气体足迹最高,而甘薯由于生物量较大且氮投入较少,温室气体足迹最低。其他作物的温室气体足迹比小麦和玉米低 19-90%。此外,我们还量化了特定作物的 N2O EFd,黑麦草的 EFd 最低(0.48 ± 0.02 %),其次是冬小麦(0.81 ± 0.43 %),其他作物的 EFd 从 1.00 ± 0.13 % 到 2.36 ± 0.85 % 不等。这项研究为不同作物和冬季休耕期提供了重要的排放数据,加深了我们对温室气体足迹和排放因子的了解,这对推进可持续农业实践至关重要。
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Sustainable Production and Consumption
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