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Low-carbon transition risks in the energy sector: A systematic review 能源行业的低碳转型风险:系统回顾
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.07.025

As the low-carbon energy transition advances, various risks emerge, potentially causing delays in the transition process. Here, we presented a systematic literature review on low-carbon transition risks in the energy sector. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we identified 89 articles for analysis. In this review, we found that: (1) Research on low-carbon transition risks in the energy sector has attracted increasing attention, with many studies focusing on the exploration of risks in European countries. (2) Various risks may arise during the low-carbon transformation of the energy sector. These risks can be classified according to the causes/potential consequences of risk and the phase of risk occurrence. (3) Low-carbon transition risks differ in their triggering causes. (4) Case studies, optimization models, prediction models, and macroeconomic models are widely used to assess low-carbon transition risks. (5) A variety of risk mitigation strategies (e.g., applying technical and financial assistance, developing unbiased energy policies) can be adopted to cope with low-carbon transition risks. We concluded this review with an outlook on future research directions. Future research should be directed at expanding the research regions beyond the commonly studies European countries, formulating tailored risk mitigation strategies for neglected categories of risks, providing guidelines on the selection of appropriate assessment methods for specific categories of risks, etc.

随着低碳能源转型的推进,各种风险不断涌现,有可能导致转型进程的延误。在此,我们对能源行业的低碳转型风险进行了系统的文献综述。根据系统综述和元分析首选报告项目(PRISMA)指南,我们确定了 89 篇文章进行分析。在本次综述中,我们发现(1) 有关能源行业低碳转型风险的研究已引起越来越多的关注,其中许多研究侧重于欧洲国家的风险探索。(2) 能源行业低碳转型过程中可能出现各种风险。这些风险可根据风险的原因/潜在后果和风险发生的阶段进行分类。(3) 低碳转型风险的触发原因各不相同。(4) 案例研究、优化模型、预测模型和宏观经济模型被广泛用于评估低碳转型风险。(5) 可采取多种风险缓解策略(如提供技术和资金援助、制定不偏不倚的能源政策)来应对低碳转型风险。最后,我们对未来的研究方向进行了展望。未来的研究应着眼于将研究区域扩大到通常研究的欧洲国家之外,为被忽视的风险类别制定有针对性的风险缓解战略,为特定风险类别选择适当的评估方法提供指导等。
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引用次数: 0
Rethinking environmental sustainability in rainfed cropping systems 重新思考雨水灌溉种植系统的环境可持续性
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.07.028

Activity data from a 30-year on-farm experiment with six soil-management treatments were used to develop inventory data for environmental partial life-cycle assessment (LCA). The purpose was to compare the treatments based on environmental outcomes and evaluate conservation agriculture (CA) in Australia's dryland cropping zone. Multiple trade-offs were revealed that highlight the need for a nuanced approach to sustainable intensification and show that rules-based CA is not sufficient to guarantee low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, nor low overall environmental impact. Nutrient mining in dryland cropping even under CA can lead to losses in soil carbon that can double GHG intensity. In these systems, additional nutrient inputs can reduce the loss of soil carbon as well as net GHG emissions, demonstrating the critical need to include the effects of soil carbon change in LCA to prevent perverse outcomes.

The treatment involving strategic tillage and nutrient balancing, along with stubble retention, had the lowest GHG intensity, but there was a trade-off with the higher embedded impacts across several other environmental categories. Higher fertiliser input could lead to toxicity impacts, due to heavy-metal content, that contribute significantly to the Human health endpoint. However, limitations in modelling such local, site-specific impacts were considerable and more research is needed to address this.

In general, trade-offs were found to exist between impacts from on-farm activities versus upstream manufacture of inputs; between GHG emissions and land use (yield) versus other environmental categories; and between different on-farm GHG emission sources. Despite these trade-offs, the treatments all had similar overall scores in the Human health and Ecosystems damage categories. There was no single treatment with low, or high, impact scores across all environmental indicators, indicating that trade-offs need to be carefully considered when making farm-management decisions in the context of net-zero or carbon-neutral farming.

通过对六种土壤管理方法进行为期 30 年的农场试验,我们获得了活动数据,并利用这些数据为环境部分生命周期评估(LCA)编制了清单数据。目的是根据环境结果对处理方法进行比较,并对澳大利亚旱地种植区的保护性农业(CA)进行评估。结果显示了多重权衡,突出了采用细致方法实现可持续集约化的必要性,并表明基于规则的保护性农业不足以保证低温室气体(GHG)排放或低总体环境影响。在旱地耕作中,即使是在 CA 条件下,养分的开采也会导致土壤碳的损失,从而使温室气体强度增加一倍。在这些系统中,额外的养分投入可以减少土壤碳的损失以及温室气体的净排放量,这表明将土壤碳变化的影响纳入生命周期评估以防止出现不正常的结果至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
An investigation into the extent to which sustainable product development practices are implemented in manufacturing companies 对制造企业实施可持续产品开发实践程度的调查
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.07.022

In recent decades, the pressure from regulations and consumers for products with enhanced sustainability performance has escalated the implementation of sustainability actions by companies. For manufacturing companies specifically, Sustainable Product Development (SPD) is a key approach for reducing the sustainability impacts of the developed products, across their entire life cycle. Despite the availability of wide range of management practices for SPD to support embedding sustainability into the product development process, the extent of their application by companies remains underexplored. To fulfil this gap, an industry survey was conducted to investigate the capability of manufacturing companies to apply a consolidated set of 61 SPD management practices. The overall results which comprised 20 companies across 14 sectors revealed that most of the practices are still applied at a low capability level by most companies. This result indicates a large theory-practice gap particularly in understanding the influence of the type of business, variation in capability levels across different business processes and stages of the product development that influence the successful implementation of sustainability actions in companies. Hence, stronger collaboration between the academia and industry sectors are essential to transform new knowledge into actionable strategies.

近几十年来,由于法规和消费者要求产品具有更高的可持续发展性能,企业实施可持续发展行动的压力越来越大。具体到制造企业,可持续产品开发(SPD)是减少所开发产品在整个生命周期中对可持续发展影响的关键方法。尽管可持续产品开发(SPD)有广泛的管理实践来支持将可持续发展融入产品开发过程,但企业对这些实践的应用程度仍未得到充分探索。为了填补这一空白,我们开展了一项行业调查,以了解制造企业应用 61 项 SPD 管理实践的综合能力。由 14 个行业的 20 家公司组成的调查结果显示,大多数公司应用这些管理方法的能力仍然较低。这一结果表明,在理解企业类型、不同业务流程和产品开发阶段的能力水平差异对企业成功实施可持续发展行动的影响方面,理论与实践之间存在巨大差距。因此,加强学术界与工业部门之间的合作对于将新知识转化为可操作的战略至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Development and application of a nutritional quality model for life cycle assessment of protein-rich foods 开发和应用营养质量模型,对富含蛋白质的食品进行生命周期评估
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.07.026

Alternative protein sources (APSs) have emerged as a potentially healthy and, presumably, environmentally sustainable solution for meeting future food demand. Here we develop a new complex nutrient profile model to assess the nutritional quality of protein-rich foods, which, concurrently, allows to evaluate their environmental implications efficiently through the application of life cycle assessment (LCA). The development of the index was guided by the identification of priority nutrients in APSs and main deficiencies of similar models, which gave rise to the ‘quality Nutrient Rich Food 1.10.2’ (qNRF1.10.2). This model is the first nutrient profile system that combines various essential nutrients and a protein quality scoring system, namely Digestible Indispensable Amino Acid Score (DIAAS). From a nutritional perspective, its accuracy was proven and its application identified animal products as the most nutritionally complete food group, surpassing plant-based alternatives. However, when using the index as functional unit in LCA of protein-rich foods, we discovered that seeds, nuts, and mixtures of vegetable foods reported the lowest environmental impacts as a function of their nutrient density. Some exceptions were found for algae or insects, which performed worse than animal-derived foods in terms of resources consumption, or for cereals, which shown an important water deprivation potential. These results suggest that we should find a trade-off between the production of emerging and conventional foodstuffs, and that main environmental issues of each region should condition the location of production systems.

替代蛋白质来源(APSs)已成为满足未来食品需求的一种潜在的健康解决方案,而且可能是环境可持续的解决方案。在此,我们开发了一种新的复杂营养成分分析模型,用于评估富含蛋白质食品的营养质量,同时还能通过应用生命周期评估(LCA)有效评估其对环境的影响。该指数的开发以确定 APS 中的优先营养素和类似模型的主要缺陷为指导,并由此产生了 "优质富含营养素食品 1.10.2"(qNRF1.10.2)。该模型是首个将各种必需营养素和蛋白质质量评分系统(即可消化不可或缺氨基酸评分系统)结合在一起的营养成分分析系统。从营养学的角度来看,该系统的准确性已得到证实,其应用确定了动物产品是营养最全面的食品类别,超过了植物性食品。然而,当在富含蛋白质食品的生命周期评估中使用该指数作为功能单位时,我们发现种子、坚果和混合蔬菜食品的营养密度对环境的影响最小。但藻类或昆虫食品或谷物食品除外,前者在资源消耗方面比动物源性食品差,后者则显示出严重的缺水潜力。这些结果表明,我们应该在新兴食品和传统食品的生产之间找到一个平衡点,而且每个地区的主要环境问题应该成为生产系统选址的条件。
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引用次数: 0
Life cycle assessment of Beefy-9 and Beefy-R serum-free culture media for cell-cultivated beef production 用于细胞培养牛肉生产的 Beefy-9 和 Beefy-R 无血清培养基的生命周期评估
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.07.023

The sustainable production of cell-cultivated meat requires the use of environmentally friendly nutrients. Culture media, which provides the necessary nutrients for cell proliferation and differentiation is a major contributor to the environmental impacts of cultivated meat production. Fetal bovine serum (FBS) is problematic due to animal sourcing, ethical concerns, and high cost. Beefy-R and Beefy-9 are experimentally validated, serum-free cell culture media designed for bovine myoblast culture. While both formulations include basal media, ascorbic acid, sodium selenite, recombinant proteins, and growth factors, Beefy-9 and Beefy-R contain recombinant albumin and rapeseed protein isolates (RPI) to replace FBS, respectively. While these culture media do not include animal-sourced components, their environmental impacts have not yet been investigated. In this study, life cycle assessment (LCA) was performed to estimate the environmental burdens of Beefy-9 and Beefy-R culture media production and identify hotspots for optimization. Uncertainty was assessed through sensitivity and scenario analyses, as well as Monte Carlo simulation. Our results demonstrate that Beefy-R has significantly lower environmental impacts compared to Beefy-9 in 13 out of 18 evaluated impact categories. For instance, the global warming potential (GWP) of Beefy-R was almost five times lower when compared against that of Beefy-9 production. In Beefy-R, despite the absence of recombinant albumin, recombinant proteins and growth factors were hotspots, accounting for 41 %, 5.9 %, and 12 % of GWP, land use, and water consumption impacts, respectively. This study confirms that RPI can be a more sustainable substitute for recombinant albumin in bovine myoblast serum-free media formulations. Additional research is required to identify low-impact alternatives for other recombinant proteins and growth factors in culture media.

细胞培养肉类的可持续生产需要使用环境友好型营养物质。培养基为细胞增殖和分化提供了必要的营养物质,是造成培养肉生产环境影响的主要因素。胎牛血清(FBS)因其动物来源、道德问题和高成本而存在问题。Beefy-R 和 Beefy-9 是经过实验验证的无血清细胞培养基,专门用于牛肌母细胞培养。虽然两种配方都包括基础培养基、抗坏血酸、亚硒酸钠、重组蛋白和生长因子,但 Beefy-9 和 Beefy-R 分别含有重组白蛋白和菜籽蛋白分离物 (RPI),以取代 FBS。虽然这些培养基不含动物源成分,但它们对环境的影响尚未得到研究。在本研究中,我们进行了生命周期评估(LCA),以估算 Beefy-9 和 Beefy-R 培养基生产的环境负担,并确定优化的热点。通过敏感性和情景分析以及蒙特卡罗模拟评估了不确定性。结果表明,与 Beefy-9 相比,Beefy-R 在 18 个评估影响类别中的 13 个类别中对环境的影响明显较小。例如,与 Beefy-9 生产相比,Beefy-R 的全球升温潜能值(GWP)几乎低五倍。在 Beefy-R 中,尽管没有重组白蛋白,但重组蛋白和生长因子是热点,分别占全球升温潜能值、土地使用和水消耗影响的 41%、5.9% 和 12%。这项研究证实,在牛肌母细胞无血清培养基配方中,RPI 可作为重组白蛋白的一种更具可持续性的替代品。还需要进行更多的研究,以确定培养基中其他重组蛋白和生长因子的低影响替代品。
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引用次数: 0
A review of life cycle assessment studies of maritime fuels: Critical insights, gaps, and recommendations 海洋燃料生命周期评估研究综述:重要见解、差距和建议
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.07.016

The shift from fossil-based to alternative fuels has been identified as a means of reducing the maritime transportation sector's environmental footprint. However, deciding which alternative fuels will make up the future fuel mix requires comprehensive knowledge on the environmental impacts of these fuels, which can be assessed using life cycle assessment (LCA). A detailed review of 43 peer-reviewed scientific articles of maritime fuel LCAs was performed according to i) their coverage of fuels and fuel technologies, ii) the methodological choices made when conducting these LCAs, and iii) the transparency when documenting them. It was found that, despite an increasing focus on alternative, non-fossil fuels, there is no clear picture of the potential impacts of future fuel mixes due to a lack of transparent disclosure of the methodological choices and assumptions. Additionally, only 8 of the reviewed articles (19 %) provide a complete life cycle inventory. Uncertainty analyses, which are a key methodological element of LCAs and particularly relevant for emerging fuels and technologies, are only included in 16 % of the reviewed articles. Consequently, current LCA studies of maritime fuels are unable to provide clear guidance on the potential environmental impacts of maritime fuels, in particular those relating to emerging fuel types. To support this need and enhance the reliability of decision-making regarding fuel choices, practical recommendations for future maritime fuel LCAs are provided. These include a focus on emerging fuels for long-distance shipping, increased transparency in reporting choices and assumptions, and inclusion of key methodological elements such as uncertainty analyses.

从化石燃料向替代燃料的转变已被确定为减少海运部门环境足迹的一种手段。然而,要决定哪些替代燃料将构成未来的燃料组合,就需要全面了解这些燃料对环境的影响,而这些影响可以通过生命周期评估(LCA)进行评估。我们对 43 篇经同行评审的海事燃料生命周期评估科学文章进行了详细审查,审查内容包括:i) 燃料和燃料技术的覆盖范围;ii) 进行生命周期评估时所选择的方法;iii) 记录这些评估时的透明度。结果发现,尽管人们越来越关注替代性非化石燃料,但由于缺乏对方法选择和假设的透明披露,因此对未来燃料组合的潜在影响还没有清晰的认识。此外,仅有 8 篇文章(19%)提供了完整的生命周期清单。不确定性分析是生命周期评估的关键方法要素,与新兴燃料和技术尤为相关,但只有 16% 的综述文章包含不确定性分析。因此,目前的海运燃料生命周期评估研究无法为海运燃料的潜在环境影响提供明确指导,尤其是与新兴燃料类型相关的影响。为了满足这一需求并提高燃料选择决策的可靠性,本文为未来的海运燃料生命周期评估提供了实用建议。这些建议包括重点关注用于长途航运的新兴燃料,提高报告选择和假设的透明度,以及纳入不确定性分析等关键方法要素。
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引用次数: 0
European consumers' intention to buy sustainable aquaculture products: An exploratory study 欧洲消费者购买可持续水产养殖产品的意向:探索性研究
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.07.021

Given the increasing global importance of low trophic level aquaculture (LTA) products (e.g. seaweed and mussels) for sustainable and healthy seafood supply, this study examined consumer intentions towards LTA products among European consumers. This study performed an extended theory of planned behaviour to focus on the influence of health consciousness, subjective knowledge, food neophobia, and sociodemographic and lifestyle factors on consumers' intentions to buy LTA products. We conducted an online questionnaire survey in Denmark, the United Kingdom and France (~500 respondents per country). Consumer segmentation analysis, based on food-related lifestyles, employing K-means clustering techniques, revealed five distinct segments, namely ‘Adventurous’, ‘Uninvolved’, ‘Foodies’, ‘Rational’, and ‘Conservative’, each reflecting unique consumer behavioural patterns. Furthermore, partial least squares structural equation modelling analysis revealed that subjective norms are the main predictor of LTA product buying intention, followed by attitude, food neophobia, subjective knowledge, and health consciousness. Furthermore, food neophobia seems to moderate the influence of subjective norms and subjective knowledge on LTA product buying intention. This dual approach explains the predictive power of the model while identifying targeted segments for sustainable aquaculture product marketing, ensuring that the distinction between the model's test and the subsequent segmentation analysis is clearly articulated. To enhance the adoption of LTA products, marketers should primarily target the ‘Foodies’ segment, characterised by high involvement and innovation, by emphasizing attitudes, health consciousness, subjective knowledge, and food quality attributes, while mitigating food neophobia and leveraging subjective norms.

鉴于低营养级水产养殖(LTA)产品(如海藻和贻贝)对全球可持续健康海产品供应的重要性与日俱增,本研究考察了欧洲消费者对LTA产品的消费意向。本研究采用了扩展的计划行为理论,重点研究健康意识、主观知识、食品新恐惧症以及社会人口和生活方式等因素对消费者购买 LTA 产品意向的影响。我们在丹麦、英国和法国进行了在线问卷调查(每个国家约有 500 名受访者)。根据与食品相关的生活方式,采用 K-means 聚类技术进行了消费者细分分析,发现了五个不同的细分市场,即 "冒险"、"不参与"、"美食家"、"理性 "和 "保守",每个细分市场都反映了独特的消费者行为模式。此外,偏最小二乘法结构方程模型分析表明,主观规范是预测 LTA 产品购买意向的主要因素,其次是态度、食物新恐惧症、主观知识和健康意识。此外,食物新恐惧症似乎可以缓和主观规范和主观知识对 LTA 产品购买意向的影响。这种双重方法解释了模型的预测能力,同时确定了可持续水产养殖产品营销的目标细分市场,确保模型测试和后续细分分析之间的区别得到清晰阐述。为提高长期协议产品的采用率,营销人员应主要针对 "美食家 "这一具有高参与度和创新性的细分市场,强调态度、健康意识、主观知识和食品质量属性,同时减轻食品新恐惧症并利用主观规范。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring determinants of collaboration in circular supply chains: A social exchange theory perspective 探索循环供应链合作的决定因素:社会交换理论视角
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.07.017

In the transition to a circular economy, the supply chain plays a pivotal role in implementing successful circular models. While literature underscores the significance of social relationships and collaboration among supply chain stakeholders for this transition, there remains a gap in understanding how to effectively implement and enhance these collaborations in circular supply chains to improve sustainable performance. This study aims to address this gap by examining the factors that determine social relationships and collaboration within circular supply chains and their impact on sustainable performance, drawing from the perspective of Social Exchange Theory. Through a literature review (44 papers) and a multiple case study involving 10 companies, this research identifies trust, commitment, reciprocity, and power as key determinants in the collaborative relationships among stakeholders in circular supply chains and elucidates their influence on sustainable performance. Our results have enabled the creation of a conceptual model to better understand how social relationships within circular supply chains influence the quality of collaboration among stakeholders, which in turn affects overall supply chain performance. This model has implications for both academia and industry because it suggests that social relationships impact performance with partial mediation by collaboration quality and a moderating effect of circular economy strategies.

在向循环经济转型的过程中,供应链在实施成功的循环模式方面发挥着关键作用。虽然文献强调了供应链利益相关者之间的社会关系和协作对这一转型的重要意义,但在了解如何在循环供应链中有效实施和加强这些协作以提高可持续绩效方面仍存在差距。本研究旨在从社会交换理论的角度出发,研究决定循环供应链中社会关系和协作的因素及其对可持续绩效的影响,从而弥补这一空白。通过文献综述(44 篇论文)和涉及 10 家公司的多案例研究,本研究将信任、承诺、互惠和权力确定为循环供应链中利益相关者之间合作关系的关键决定因素,并阐明了它们对可持续绩效的影响。我们的研究结果有助于建立一个概念模型,从而更好地理解循环供应链中的社会关系如何影响利益相关者之间的合作质量,进而影响供应链的整体绩效。这个模型对学术界和工业界都有意义,因为它表明社会关系对绩效的影响部分受合作质量的调节,部分受循环经济战略的调节作用。
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引用次数: 0
Closing the loop: Structural, environmental and regional assessments of industrial symbiosis 闭环:工业共生的结构、环境和区域评估
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.07.015

Regional symbiosis, based on industrial symbiosis principles, is one possible strategy for managing the environmental impact of human activities and the increasing risks associated with resource availability. An assessment is needed to ensure the benefits of implementing synergies in a region. Current research focuses on the environmental and structural analysis of symbiosis networks but lacks frameworks that consider the benefits of symbiosis at the regional scale. By combining ecological network analysis (ENA), circularity metrics and the life cycle assessment (LCA) approach, this study intends to analyze the benefits brought by expanding industrial symbiosis to a broader region. Through the analysis of different symbiosis scenarios under two energetic cases (electricity and biomethane production), the study showed that implementing regional symbiosis was a lever to improve the robustness, the circularity and the environmental impact of the system. The environmental dimension was lowly affected by the scenario changes, but they provided a wider effect on regional metrics. The change in energetic production did not bring significant differences in the results. This study also showed that the structural metrics followed a different trend than the regional and environmental metrics, revealing the complementary views that were brought by the multidimensional analysis. It advocates for a holistic assessment of systems and highlights network structural organization, which should be accounted for in regional sustainability planning.

以工业共生原则为基础的区域共生是管理人类活动对环境的影响以及与资源可用性相关的日益增长的风险的一种可行战略。需要进行评估,以确保在区域内实施协同效应的益处。目前的研究侧重于共生网络的环境和结构分析,但缺乏考虑区域范围内共生效益的框架。本研究结合生态网络分析(ENA)、循环度量和生命周期评估(LCA)方法,旨在分析将工业共生扩展到更广泛区域所带来的效益。通过分析两种能源情况(电力和生物甲烷生产)下的不同共生方案,研究表明,实施区域共生是改善系统稳健性、循环性和环境影响的杠杆。环境维度受情景变化的影响较小,但对区域指标的影响较大。能源生产的变化并没有带来显著的结果差异。这项研究还表明,结构指标与区域和环境指标的趋势不同,这揭示了多维分析带来的互补观点。该研究提倡对系统进行整体评估,并强调了网络结构组织,这在区域可持续发展规划中应加以考虑。
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引用次数: 0
Sectoral impacts of climate change in Iran: A dynamic analysis with emphasis on agriculture 气候变化对伊朗各部门的影响:以农业为重点的动态分析
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.07.020

Iranian agriculture, the largest consumer of water, is highly vulnerable to sever climate change-induced droughts. This study aimed to analyze the impact of climate change on various sectors, with a focus on agricultural output and gross domestic product (GDP). To achieve this, a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model incorporating a climate damage function was utilized to project the consequences of climate change on various sectors of Iran's economy. The damage function is based on the temperature anomaly. This study simulated the impact of shocks caused by climate scenarios by 2060. The modified Social Accounting Matrix served as the primary dataset for CGE modeling. By simulating climate scenarios up to 2060, the findings indicated that certain agricultural products, such as cereals and livestock, have the potential for an annual output expansion of 2–3.5 % under the most severe climatic scenarios. This expansion is attributed to their lower reliance on capital inputs and their increased final demand for agricultural commodities. Conversely, the growth rates of output expansion and final demand for services products are lower than those for agricultural products. With climate change options, there may be a shift in output composition, favoring crops, agricultural industries, and energy products, while the growth of services output remains comparatively lower. The GDP growth path also deviates from the current path of 1.8 %, reaching rates of 1.5–1.7 %. In the most restrictive scenario, the GDP is projected to decline in the mid-2050s. Similarly, the range for consumption growth is estimated to be 1.8–2.1 %. Climate change does not significantly alter the income distribution within rural and urban income groups. However, it exacerbates rural-urban inequality by favoring urban households with higher consumption levels. The current state of the Iranian economy, especially the agricultural sector, faces increased vulnerability due to climate change. Nevertheless, certain agricultural activities may experience a relatively greater increase in output because of the growing demand for these products.

伊朗农业是最大的用水户,极易受到气候变化引起的严重干旱的影响。本研究旨在分析气候变化对各部门的影响,重点是农业产出和国内生产总值(GDP)。为此,利用了一个包含气候损害函数的动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型来预测气候变化对伊朗各经济部门的影响。损害函数以温度异常为基础。这项研究模拟了到 2060 年气候情景造成的冲击影响。修改后的社会核算矩阵是专家咨询小组建模的主要数据集。通过模拟 2060 年前的气候情景,研究结果表明,在最严重的气候情景下,谷物和牲畜等某些农产品的年产量有可能增加 2-3.5%。这种增长归因于它们对资本投入的依赖较低,以及对农产品的最终需求增加。相反,服务产品的产出扩张和最终需求增长率低于农产品。在气候变化的影响下,产出构成可能会发生变化,向农作物、农业产业和能源产品倾斜,而服务业产出的增长仍然相对较低。国内生产总值的增长路径也会偏离目前 1.8%的路径,达到 1.5-1.7%。在限制性最强的情况下,预计国内生产总值将在 2050 年代中期下降。同样,消费增长的范围估计为 1.8-2.1%。气候变化不会明显改变农村和城市收入群体的收入分配。但是,气候变化会有利于消费水平较高的城市家庭,从而加剧城乡不平等。伊朗经济的现状,尤其是农业部门,在气候变化面前更加脆弱。不过,由于对某些农业产品的需求不断增长,这些产品的产量可能会有较大幅度的增长。
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Sustainable Production and Consumption
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