Journal of Biological Dynamics最新文献

In this paper, we use an adaptive modeling framework to model and study how nutritional status (measured by the protein to carbohydrate ratio) may regulate population dynamics and foraging task allocation of social insect colonies. Mathematical analysis of our model shows that both investment to brood rearing and brood nutrition are important for colony survival and dynamics. When division of labour and/or nutrition are in an intermediate value range, the model undergoes a backward bifurcation and creates multiple attractors due to bistability. This bistability implies that there is a threshold population size required for colony survival. When the investment in brood is large enough or nutritional requirements are less strict, the colony tends to survive, otherwise the colony faces collapse. Our model suggests that the needs of colony survival are shaped by the brood survival probability, which requires good nutritional status. As a consequence, better nutritional status can lead to a better survival rate of larvae and thus a larger worker population.

Although pneumococcal vaccines are quite effective in reducing disease burden, factors such as imperfect vaccine efficacy and serotype replacement present an important challenge against realizing direct and herd protection benefits of the vaccines. In this study, a novel mathematical model is designed and used to describe the dynamics of two Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) serotypes, in response to the introduction of a cohort vaccination program which targets one of the two serotypes. The model is fitted to a pediatric SP carriage prevalence data from Atlanta, GA. The model, which is rigorously analysed to investigate the existence and asymptotic stability properties of the associated equilibria (in addition to exploring conditions for competitive exclusion), is simulated to assess the impact of vaccination under different levels of serotype-specific competition and illustrate the phenomenon of serotype replacement. The calibrated model is used to forecast the carriage prevalence in the pediatric cohort over 30 years.

Previous works using different mathematical techniques, however, show that the concavity of the trade-off relationship can alter the expected life history strategies. Thus we developed a model and found that the concavity of the reproduction-survival curve can still have a large impact on life history strategies in an ecological model with Darwinian evolution.

The turnover rate of producer biomass in aquatic ecosystems is generally faster than in terrestrial. That is, aquatic producer biomass grows, is consumed, and is replaced considerably faster than terrestrial. The WKL model describes the flow of phosphorus and carbon through a grazer-producer system, hence varying the model parameters allows for analysis of different ecosystems of this type. Here we explore the impacts of the intrinsic growth rate of the producer and the maximal ingestion rate of the grazer on these dynamics because these parameters determine turnover rate. Simulations show that for low intrinsic growth rate and maximal ingestion rate, the grazer goes extinct; for higher values of these parameters, coexistence occurs in oscillations. Sensitivity analysis reveals the relative importance of all parameters on asymptotic dynamics. Lastly, the impacts of changing these two parameters in the LKE model appears to be quantitatively similar to the impacts in the WKL model.

We use a mixed time model to study the dynamics of a system consisting of two consumers that reproduce only in annual birth pulses, possibly at different times, with interaction limited to competition for a resource that reproduces continuously. Ecological theory predicts competitive exclusion; this expectation is met under most circumstances, the winner being the species with the greater 'power', defined as the time average consumer level at the fixed point. Instability of that fixed point for the stronger competitor slightly weakens its domination, so that a resident species with an unstable fixed point can sometimes be invaded by a slightly weaker species, leading ultimately to coexistence. Differences in birth pulse times can lead to qualitatively different long-term coexistence behaviour, including cycles of different lengths or chaos. We also determine conditions under which the timing of an annual pulse of a toxin can change the balance of power.

We prove bifurcation theorems for evolutionary game theoretic (Darwinian dynamic) versions of nonlinear matrix equations for structured population dynamics. These theorems generalize existing theorems concerning the bifurcation and stability of equilibrium solutions when an extinction equilibrium destabilizes by allowing for the general appearance of the bifurcation parameter. We apply the theorems to a Darwinian model designed to investigate the evolutionary selection of reproductive strategies that involve either low or high post-reproductive survival (semelparity or iteroparity). The model incorporates the phenotypic trait dependence of two features: population density effects on fertility and a trade-off between inherent fertility and post-reproductive survival. Our analysis of the model determines conditions under which evolution selects for low or for high reproductive survival. In some cases (notably an Allee component effect on newborn survival), the model predicts multiple attractor scenarios in which low or high reproductive survival is initial condition dependent.

In Nature, species coexistence is much more frequent than what the classical competition model predicts, so that scientists look for mechanisms that explain such a coexistence. We revisit the classical competition model assuming that individuals invest time in competing individuals of the other species. This assumption extends the classical competition model (that becomes a particular case of the model presented) under the form of a Holling type II term, that we call competitive response to interfering time. The resulting model expands the outcomes allowed by the classical model by (i) enlarging the range of parameter values that allow coexistence scenarios and (ii) displaying dynamical scenarios not allowed by the classical model: namely, bi-stable conditional coexistence in favour of i (either species coexist or species i wins) or tri-stable conditional coexistence (either species coexist or any of them goes extinct), being exclusion in both cases due to priority effects.

Vector-borne infectious diseases may involve both horizontal transmission between hosts and transmission from infected vectors to susceptible hosts. In this paper, we incorporate these two transmission modes into a vector-borne disease model that includes general nonlinear incidence rates and the age of infection for both hosts and vectors. We show the existence, uniqueness, nonnegativity, and boundedness of solutions for the model. We study the existence and local stability of steady states, which is shown to be determined by the basic reproduction number. By showing the existence of a global compact attractor and uniform persistence of the system, we establish the threshold dynamics using the Fluctuation Lemma and the approach of Lyapunov functionals. When the basic reproduction number is less than one, the disease-free steady state is globally asymptotically stable and otherwise the disease will be established when there is initial infection force for the hosts. We also study a model with the standard incidence rate and discuss the effect of different incidence rates on the disease dynamics.

In this paper, we consider a nonautonomous predator-prey system with Beddington-DeAngelis functional response and explore the global stability of boundary solution. Based on the dynamics of logistic equation, some new sufficient conditions on the global asymptotic stability of boundary solution are presented for general time-dependence case. Our main results indicate that (i) the long-term ineffective predation behaviour or high mortality of predator species will lead the predator species to extinction, even if the intraspecies competition of predator species is weak or no intraspecies competition; (ii) the long-term intense intraspecific competition may lead the predator species to extinction, even though the long-term accumulative predation benefit is higher than the death lose. When all parameters are periodic functions with common period, a necessary and sufficient condition on the global stability of boundary periodic solution is obtained. In addition, some numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the theoretical results.