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Deriving weeklong activity-travel dairy from Google Location History: survey tool development and a field test in Toronto 从谷歌位置历史记录中推导出一周的活动-旅行乳制品:调查工具的开发和在多伦多的实地测试
IF 4.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-08-10 DOI: 10.1007/s11116-024-10523-3
Melvyn Li, Kaili Wang, Yicong Liu, Khandker Nurul Habib

This paper introduces an innovative travel survey methodology that utilizes Google Location History (GLH) data to generate travel diaries for transportation demand analysis. By leveraging the accuracy and omnipresence among smartphone users of GLH, the proposed methodology avoids the need for proprietary GPS tracking applications to collect smartphone-based GPS data. This research utilizes the existing travel survey software, TRavel Activity Internet Survey Interface (TRAISI), which allows for the design and implementation of surveys through highly modular and customizable components. A new module was developed within this software to serve as a repository for GLH, enabling the derivation of activity-travel diaries from each respondent’s GLH. The feasibility of this data collection approach is showcased through the Google Timeline Travel Survey (GTTS) conducted in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada. The resultant dataset from the GTTS is demographically representative and offers detailed and accurate travel behavioural insights.

本文介绍了一种创新的旅行调查方法,该方法利用谷歌位置历史(GLH)数据生成旅行日记,用于交通需求分析。通过利用 GLH 在智能手机用户中的准确性和无所不在性,所提出的方法无需使用专有 GPS 跟踪应用程序来收集基于智能手机的 GPS 数据。本研究利用现有的旅行调查软件 TRavel Activity Internet Survey Interface (TRAISI),该软件允许通过高度模块化和可定制的组件设计和实施调查。在该软件中开发了一个新模块,作为 GLH 的存储库,可以从每个受访者的 GLH 中推导出活动-旅行日记。在加拿大大多伦多地区进行的谷歌时间轴旅行调查(GTTS)展示了这种数据收集方法的可行性。GTTS 得出的数据集在人口统计学上具有代表性,可提供详细、准确的旅行行为分析。
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引用次数: 0
More bus subsidies, better bus benefits? Evidence from the effect of bus subsidy policies in 33 key cities of China 公交补贴越多,公交效益越好?中国 33 个重点城市公交补贴政策效果的证据
IF 4.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1007/s11116-024-10530-4
Chunqin Zhang, Meng Liu, Yi Huang, Jinpei Li, Martin Skitmore

To explore the effectiveness of China's current bus subsidy policies, we select 33 key cities in China that have implemented operation subsidies and dedicated bus lane policies from 2016 to 2019 as the study objects. Utilizing a propensity score matching approach to control for urban characteristic variables, we examined the relationship between different levels of subsidy policies and bus benefits. We calculated the propensity scores of the samples, matched them accordingly, and then derived quantitative results on the impact of the bus subsidy policy. We used lagged variable and whether a city is a coastal city as an instrumental variable to conduct an endogeneity test and found no evidence of endogeneity. The results show that a high proportion of dedicated bus lanes has a significant boosting effect on the improvement of bus benefit, and theoretically the promotion effect reaches 8.3%. A high level of operation subsidies can improve bus benefits by 3.5%, but it is not significant. The larger the sidewalk area per capita, the less likely a city will receive high levels of operation subsidies. Cities with higher population density and larger urban road area per capita may not construct a higher proportion of dedicated bus lanes, while cities with more car ownership and bus parking area are likely to construct more dedicated bus lanes. Our study contributes to bus subsidy research by employing a propensity score matching method that minimizes sample selection bias, ensuring the reliability of the results. This paper provides a theoretical basis for the adjustment of China’s urban bus subsidy policy and enriches bus subsidy research.

为探讨中国现行公交补贴政策的有效性,我们选取了 2016 年至 2019 年实施运营补贴和公交专用道政策的 33 个中国重点城市作为研究对象。利用倾向得分匹配法控制城市特征变量,我们考察了不同水平的补贴政策与公交效益之间的关系。我们计算了样本的倾向得分,并进行了相应的匹配,然后得出了公交补贴政策影响的量化结果。我们使用滞后变量和城市是否为沿海城市作为工具变量进行了内生性检验,没有发现内生性证据。结果表明,高比例的公交专用道对公交效益的提升有显著的促进作用,理论上促进作用达到 8.3%。高水平的运营补贴可以提高公交效益 3.5%,但并不显著。人均人行道面积越大的城市,获得高水平运营补贴的可能性越小。人口密度越高、人均城市道路面积越大的城市可能不会建设更多的公交专用道,而汽车保有量和公交停车场面积越大的城市则可能建设更多的公交专用道。我们的研究采用了倾向得分匹配法,最大程度地减少了样本选择偏差,确保了研究结果的可靠性,从而为公交补贴研究做出了贡献。本文为中国城市公交补贴政策的调整提供了理论依据,丰富了公交补贴研究的内容。
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引用次数: 0
Place Generator and Place Interpreter: a new methodology to collect data on regular mobility patterns 地点生成器和地点解释器:收集常规流动模式数据的新方法
IF 4.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1007/s11116-024-10526-0
Benjamin Gramsch-Calvo, Kay W. Axhausen

When observing the temporal trajectory of an individual, there is a high probability of them visiting an already-known place due to habit and routine in human mobility behavior. To collect data and understand these routine activities, we propose the Place Generator and the Place Interpreter, a survey adapted from the Name Generator and Name Interpreter methodology of social network studies for travel behavior. In the survey, we asked the participants to name the venues they regularly visit for leisure by category. This methodology captures the characteristics of the venues and the reasons to be chosen. We tested this method in the Zurich Metropolitan Area in Switzerland, focusing on leisure activities and the social environment of the venues. Hence, we ask the individuals to describe the reasons for choosing that specific location and the sociodemographic characteristics of the other visitors. This methodology worked well when compared with earlier long-duration GPS tracking surveys. Respondents report, on average, 9.85 locations for nine types of venues, mainly supermarkets and restaurants or cafes, and respondents can describe their similarities with other visitors to that location. The survey is complemented with a survey of sociodemographic characteristics and the respondent’s ego-centric social network to get information on social connections and their impact on leisure activity.

在观察一个人的时间轨迹时,由于人类移动行为的习惯性和常规性,他们很有可能会访问一个已经熟知的地方。为了收集数据并了解这些常规活动,我们提出了 "地点生成器 "和 "地点解释器",这是一项调查,改编自旅行行为社会网络研究中的 "名称生成器 "和 "名称解释器 "方法。在调查中,我们要求参与者按类别说出他们经常去的休闲场所。这种方法可以捕捉到这些场所的特点和被选择的原因。我们在瑞士苏黎世大都会区对这一方法进行了测试,重点关注休闲活动和场所的社会环境。因此,我们要求个人描述选择特定地点的原因以及其他游客的社会人口特征。与之前的长时间 GPS 跟踪调查相比,这种方法效果很好。受访者平均报告了九类场所的 9.85 个地点,主要是超市和餐馆或咖啡馆,受访者可以描述他们与该地点其他游客的相似之处。调查还辅以社会人口特征调查和受访者以自我为中心的社交网络调查,以获取有关社交关系及其对休闲活动影响的信息。
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引用次数: 0
The TimeUse+ data set: 4 weeks of time use and expenditure data based on GPS tracks TimeUse+ 数据集:基于 GPS 轨迹的 4 周时间使用和支出数据
IF 4.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11116-024-10517-1
Caroline Winkler, Adrian Meister, Kay W. Axhausen

This data paper introduces the TimeUse+ data set and outlines the comprehensive survey methodologies employed in its collection. The TimeUse+ study comprised two online questionnaires and a smartphone-based diary, recording travel, time use, and expenditure data. Participants were instructed to utilize the TimeUse+ application over a 4-week period. The app passively tracked participants’ movements via GPS and enabled them to annotate their trips and time spent at fixed locations with relevant time use and expenditure information. We begin by providing an overview of extant research on smartphone-based activity-travel diaries and the survey methodological research that informed the TimeUse+ app’s design. We then delineate the study design and components of TimeUse+, highlighting insights derived from prior focus groups and pretests. The data analyzed in this study were collected during the main study wave of TimeUse+, conducted in German-speaking Switzerland from July 2022 to February 2023. Approximately 63,000 individuals were invited to participate, of which approximately 10% initially indicated interest. Despite the study’s extensive and burdensome nature, we observed a net response rate of 2.1%. We present findings related to travel behavior, time use patterns, and expenditure habits, and discuss the challenges faced and lessons learned during each stage of development and execution of the TimeUse+ study. These extensive longitudinal data, which include validated information on travel mode and purpose, as well as detailed data on duration, social partners, and expenditures associated with activities performed at each destination, are being made available for further research.

本数据报告介绍了 TimeUse+ 数据集,并概述了收集数据时所采用的综合调查方法。TimeUse+ 研究包括两份在线问卷和一份基于智能手机的日记,记录旅行、时间使用和支出数据。参与者被要求在 4 周内使用 TimeUse+ 应用程序。该应用程序通过全球定位系统被动跟踪参与者的行动,使他们能够在旅行和在固定地点花费的时间上标注相关的时间使用和支出信息。我们首先概述了基于智能手机的活动-旅行日记的现有研究,以及为 TimeUse+ 应用程序的设计提供参考的调查方法研究。然后,我们介绍了 TimeUse+ 的研究设计和组成部分,并强调了从先前的焦点小组和预测试中获得的启示。本研究分析的数据是在 TimeUse+ 的主要研究阶段收集的,研究于 2022 年 7 月至 2023 年 2 月在瑞士德语区进行。约有 63,000 人受邀参与,其中约 10%的人初步表示有兴趣。尽管这项研究涉及面广、任务繁重,但我们观察到的净回复率为 2.1%。我们介绍了与旅行行为、时间使用模式和支出习惯相关的研究结果,并讨论了 TimeUse+ 研究在开发和执行的各个阶段所面临的挑战和吸取的经验教训。这些广泛的纵向数据包括关于旅行方式和目的的有效信息,以及关于持续时间、社会合作伙伴和在每个目的地开展活动的相关支出的详细数据,这些数据可供进一步研究使用。
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引用次数: 0
Promoting active transportation: A comparative assessment of paths and prices 促进主动交通:路径和价格比较评估
IF 4.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11116-024-10520-6
Darja Mihailova, Colin Vance

The time people spend traveling has far reaching implications for their health and for environmental outcomes. Urban planning paradigms—such as that of the "15-minute city"—have consequently endeavoured to bring key services and amenities to residents within a walkable or cycleable 15–20-minute distance. These efforts notwithstanding, the policy levers that influence travel-related time allocation remain poorly understood. Drawing on a panel of household travel data from Germany covering 2005–2020, the present study analyses the role of 2 such levers—bicycle/pedestrian paths and fuel prices—as determinants of time allocation across modes. We start with a descriptive analysis that identifies a stable average travel time expenditure ranging between 65–70 min for women and 75–80 min for men until 2020, when it dropped precipitously as COVID-19 spread. We subsequently estimate fractional response models to identify the influence of the policy variables on time expenditures across motorized, nonmotorized, and public transit modes. We complete the analysis by feeding the model estimates into the World Heath Organization’s on-line Health and Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) to quantify the health and environmental impacts of the planned expansion of the bike path network in the city of Munich, comparing this with the impact of Germany’s recently introduced carbon tax on fuel. Both measures result in substantial benefits, with the implementation of the tax yielding a considerably higher benefit/cost ratio owing to its lower cost of implementation.

人们花费在出行上的时间对其健康和环境影响深远。因此,城市规划范例--如 "15 分钟城市"--致力于为居民提供 15-20 分钟步行或骑行距离内的关键服务和便利设施。尽管做出了这些努力,但人们对影响出行相关时间分配的政策杠杆仍然知之甚少。本研究利用德国 2005-2020 年的家庭出行数据面板,分析了自行车/步行道和燃料价格这两个杠杆对不同出行方式时间分配的决定性作用。我们首先进行了描述性分析,发现女性和男性的平均出行时间支出在 65-70 分钟和 75-80 分钟之间保持稳定,直到 2020 年,随着 COVID-19 的扩散,平均出行时间支出急剧下降。我们随后估算了分数响应模型,以确定政策变量对机动车、非机动车和公共交通模式的时间支出的影响。最后,我们将模型估算结果输入世界卫生组织的在线健康与经济评估工具(HEAT),以量化慕尼黑市计划扩大自行车道网络对健康和环境的影响,并将其与德国最近推出的燃料碳税的影响进行比较。这两项措施都带来了可观的收益,而碳税由于实施成本较低,收益/成本比要高得多。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring commuters’ mode preference to autonomous vehicles based on a personalized travel experience survey 基于个性化出行体验调查,探索乘客对自动驾驶汽车的模式偏好
IF 4.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11116-024-10529-x
Huanmei Qin, Binhai Yu, Yonghuan Zhang

With the rapid development of autonomous driving technology and the sharing economy, autonomous driving has significant potential to offer a broader range of travel choices for travelers. To explore different commuters’ autonomous vehicles—related behavioral decisions and choice preference, this study designed a personalized travel experience survey and established travel choice models incorporating individual perceptions and attitudes for two groups. It was found that commuters’ perceptions of autonomous vehicles were significantly improved by travel experience. Travel time is the most concerned factor in travel mode choice for private car commuters, while travel cost is the most important factor for public transport commuters. Therefore, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing the energy consumption of autonomous vehicles could effectively encourage commuters to adopt new travel modes. Improving travelers’ travel experiences and positive attitudes towards using autonomous vehicles is conducive to the adoption of private autonomous vehicles by private car commuters and the choice of shared autonomous vehicles by public transport users. By promoting people’s acceptance of ride-sharing and awareness of its benefits through user experience, publicity, and guidance, a substantial increase in the adoption of shared autonomous vehicles can be achieved among both commuter groups. Suitable thresholds for crucial factors, including travel time and cost, perception, and attitudes towards ride-sharing, were determined for both groups to facilitate their mode transfer among traditional travel modes and autonomous vehicles. The research findings can provide a reference for anticipating travel demand and guiding the formulation of transport policies for future transportation systems.

随着自动驾驶技术和共享经济的快速发展,自动驾驶技术具有为旅行者提供更广泛旅行选择的巨大潜力。为探究不同通勤者与自动驾驶汽车相关的行为决策和选择偏好,本研究设计了个性化出行体验调查,并建立了包含两组个体认知和态度的出行选择模型。研究发现,通勤者对自动驾驶汽车的感知会因出行体验而显著改善。私家车乘客在选择出行方式时最关心的因素是出行时间,而公共交通乘客最关心的因素是出行成本。因此,提高自动驾驶汽车的运行效率和降低能耗可以有效鼓励乘客采用新的出行方式。改善乘客的出行体验和对使用自动驾驶汽车的积极态度,有利于私家车乘客采用私人自动驾驶汽车,也有利于公共交通用户选择共享自动驾驶汽车。通过用户体验、宣传和引导,提高人们对共享出行的接受度和对其益处的认知度,可以大幅提高两个通勤群体对共享自动驾驶汽车的采用率。针对这两个群体的出行时间和成本、对共享出行的认知和态度等关键因素,确定了合适的阈值,以促进他们在传统出行方式和自动驾驶汽车之间进行模式转换。研究结果可为预测出行需求和指导未来交通系统的交通政策制定提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
Unveiling the effect of social media communication on urban mobility 揭示社交媒体传播对城市交通的影响
IF 4.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11116-024-10512-6
Carlos Martínez-de-Ibarreta, Jenny A. Cifuentes, Carlos M. Vallez, Alejandro Betancourt

Conventional methods to understand urban transportation mode choice primarily revolve around assessing the relation costs/benefits among the different mobility alternatives. However, emerging research has emphasized the significance of comprehending intricate social processes that shape decision-making in urban mobility. This study delves into the impact of social networks on aggregated travel behavior, using a comprehensive dataset encompassing multiple data sources such as Twitter/X messages, bicycle sharing system (BSS) and traffic counts, weather and socio-demographic information. Focusing specifically on the city of Madrid, Spain, the dataset covers an extensive period, capturing daily data from 2018 to 2021. To gain deeper insights into the underlying influences, a combination of panel regression models and a topic modeling approach were employed for analysis. The study’s findings highlight the significant impact of social media communication on transportation behavior, revealing a positive correlation between higher social media message volume and increased usage of public and sustainable transportation options like subways and BSS, while private car usage decreased. Although there is message salience, i.e., a sudden surge in tweet numbers leads to a temporary shift in behavior, the findings suggest that municipalities can effectively influence transportation behavior by strategically communicating messages related to sustainable transportation through social networks.

了解城市交通模式选择的传统方法主要围绕评估不同交通选择之间的成本/收益关系。然而,新出现的研究强调了理解影响城市交通决策的复杂社会过程的重要性。本研究通过使用包含多种数据源(如 Twitter/X 消息、共享单车系统(BSS)和交通流量统计、天气和社会人口信息)的综合数据集,深入研究了社交网络对综合出行行为的影响。数据集特别关注西班牙马德里市,涵盖了从 2018 年到 2021 年的大量日常数据。为了深入了解潜在的影响因素,研究采用了面板回归模型和主题建模相结合的方法进行分析。研究结果凸显了社交媒体传播对交通行为的重大影响,揭示了社交媒体信息量增加与地铁和 BSS 等公共和可持续交通方式使用率增加之间的正相关关系,而私家车使用率则有所下降。虽然存在信息显著性,即推文数量的突然激增会导致行为的暂时转变,但研究结果表明,市政当局可以通过社交网络有策略地传播与可持续交通相关的信息,从而有效地影响交通行为。
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引用次数: 0
Role of environmental awareness & self-identification expressiveness in electric-vehicle adoption 环保意识和自我认同表达能力在电动汽车使用中的作用
IF 4.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1007/s11116-024-10515-3
Sohaib Mustafa, Yangyan Shi, Dur e Adan, Wen Luo, Eias Al Humdan

Global warming is a serious threat to humanity, and greenhouse gases are behind it. CO2 is one of the main greenhouse gasses that cause global warming. The second most important reason behind CO2 emission is the transport sector. Electric-powered Vehicles introduced by the automobile sector are regarded as the main alternative to cope with this issue. Despite their advantages, EV adoption rates vary by country, and the expected reductions in energy shortages and pollution are not fully achieved. We took the opportunity to assess the consumer EV adoption intention by using the Value-based technology adoption model. We integrated Environmental awareness (EA) and Self-identification expressiveness (SIE) as new factors in this model to assess the role of EA and SIE in EV adoption intentions. We have collected the response of 704 EV users from China and applied the SEM-ANN dual-stage hybrid model to test proposed hypotheses and rank the variables according to their importance. Study findings revealed that Environmental awareness is a significant predictor of EV adoption but is not the most important factor. Study results also revealed that the perceived benefits of EV adoption and perceived sacrifices for its adoption have a significant impact on the perceived value of EV, and this value leads to the adoption intentions. PV is revealed as a significant mediator in our proposed model. We conclude that people need to educate about environmental issues and the benefits of using EVs to achieve the CO2 reduction and EV sale target. The study has several theoretical and practical implications for the government and the electric vehicle manufacturing industry.

全球变暖是对人类的严重威胁,而温室气体正是其幕后黑手。二氧化碳是导致全球变暖的主要温室气体之一。二氧化碳排放的第二大原因是交通部门。汽车行业推出的电动汽车被认为是应对这一问题的主要选择。尽管电动汽车具有诸多优势,但各国的电动汽车采用率不尽相同,预期的减少能源短缺和污染的目标也没有完全实现。我们利用基于价值的技术采用模型来评估消费者采用电动汽车的意向。我们将环境意识(EA)和自我认同表达能力(SIE)作为新因素纳入该模型,以评估 EA 和 SIE 在电动汽车采用意向中的作用。我们收集了 704 名中国电动汽车用户的反馈,并应用 SEM-ANN 双阶段混合模型检验了提出的假设,并根据变量的重要性对其进行了排序。研究结果显示,环境意识是电动汽车采用的一个重要预测因素,但不是最重要的因素。研究结果还显示,采用电动汽车的感知利益和采用电动汽车的感知牺牲对电动汽车的感知价值有显著影响,而这种价值会导致采用意向。在我们提出的模型中,感知价值是一个重要的中介因素。我们的结论是,人们需要了解环境问题和使用电动汽车的好处,以实现二氧化碳减排和电动汽车销售目标。这项研究对政府和电动汽车制造业具有若干理论和实践意义。
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引用次数: 0
Electric vehicle adoption intentions among UK residents parking in shared and public spaces 在共享和公共空间停车的英国居民采用电动汽车的意向
IF 4.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1007/s11116-024-10518-0
Hannah Budnitz, Toon Meelen, Tim Schwanen

A lack of charging opportunities is cited as one of the main barriers to the adoption of plug-in battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Charging opportunities are even more limited for the millions of households across Europe without the space to charge a vehicle at home, but research has not previously targeted these households. This study aims to fill this gap by assessing whether and how such residential parking constraints shape norms, attitudes and perceived behavioural control over charging, and thus intentions to adopt a BEV. Data from a nationally representative survey of car drivers in the UK without a private driveway or garage captures the perspective of these individuals who have different characteristics from early adopters of BEVs. The results show that personal norms around the environmental benefits of BEVs and positive attitudes towards BEV technology have the greatest influence on intentions to adopt, whilst social norms and perceived behavioural control over charging are less influential. The results also show that high income men are most likely to hold positive social norms that boost their intentions to adopt BEVs, whilst geographical context affects both social norms and perceived behavioural control over charging. In summary, the psychological approach applied shows that a more inclusive transition to BEVs is best supported by policies that first focus on emphasising their environmental benefits and that they are fun and economical to drive, and then look to increase social expectations and awareness of BEVs and charging infrastructure.

缺乏充电机会被认为是采用插电式电池电动汽车(BEV)的主要障碍之一。对于欧洲数百万没有空间在家中为车辆充电的家庭来说,充电机会更为有限,但以前的研究并没有针对这些家庭。本研究旨在通过评估这种住宅停车限制是否以及如何影响对充电的规范、态度和感知行为控制,进而影响采用 BEV 的意愿,来填补这一空白。对英国没有私人车道或车库的汽车驾驶者进行的一项具有全国代表性的调查数据捕捉到了这些人的视角,他们与早期采用 BEV 的人具有不同的特征。结果表明,围绕 BEV 环境效益的个人规范和对 BEV 技术的积极态度对采用意向的影响最大,而社会规范和对充电的感知行为控制的影响较小。研究结果还显示,高收入男性最有可能持有积极的社会规范,从而提高他们采用 BEV 的意愿,而地理环境则会影响社会规范和对充电的感知行为控制。总之,所采用的心理学方法表明,要想以更具包容性的方式过渡到纯电动汽车,最好的办法是制定相关政策,首先强调纯电动汽车的环境效益以及驾驶乐趣和经济性,然后努力提高社会对纯电动汽车和充电基础设施的期望和认识。
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引用次数: 0
Current and future European culture of mobility: insights from in-depth conversations with thinkers 当前和未来的欧洲流动文化:与思想家深入对话的启示
IF 4.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1007/s11116-024-10519-z
Maxime Hachette, Alain L’Hostis, Daniel Cassolà, Andreu Ulied, Ghadir Pourhashem, Silvia Gaggi

This paper deals with the foundations of current and past mobility cultures, identifies emerging trends and main drivers that contribute to the shaping of the future European mobility cultures, and focuses on the role of communication. The methodology adopted to better understand this complex concept involved 3 major steps: first a literature exploration, then a foresight involving strategic application of forward-looking approaches in shaping and informing public policy decisions which needed, and finally backcasting exercise to mainly build future scenarios. During these steps, we aimed to identify, involve and create a community of high level experts and thinkers in various fields: philosophy, psychology, sociology, geography, urbanism, architecture, economics, poetry, art. This involvement led to 29 scientific discussions of 3 types: 15 Talks with 16 experts, 5 Explorative Conversations with 11 experts and 9 Generative Dialogues with 11 experts. We have also organized 3 focus groups and 5 workshops to deepen our thinking on specific topics and involve a larger group of experts: Mobility values, Imagining future scenarios on mobility cultures, Public interest definition, Design a roadmap and outline feasible strategies. A survey of European citizens was carried out to involve them in an open consultation of the vision. Experts and thinkers were interviewed to stimulate discussion on how they understand mobility cultures and what drives it, to identify trends in mobility cultures and how they perceive mobility’s future. The idea was also to confront different or conflicting ideas and to identify the nuances and uncertainties, particularly with regard to the trends and future mobility cultures. As a result, we developed a vision not only of current and past mobility cultures, but especially of the expected and likely mobility future. We created 4 (extreme) political and societal scenarios for the mobility future and named them according to Greek divinities: Hercules, Themis, Hermes, and Gaia. The final results are a combination of several elements from different scenarios. The most desired future mobility clearly tends towards the Themis and Gaia cultural values of equity and well-being, while the Hermes cultural value of efficiency is perceived as driving the most likely future. This mismatch between expected and desired futures clearly expresses tensions between elements of mobility cultures. This gap points to a direction for future European mobility policy, away from efficiency and towards alternative values of sufficiency, care, and justice. Although we intended to cover the whole of Europe, Western Europe has remained relatively over-represented.

本文论述了当前和过去流动文化的基础,确定了有助于塑造未来欧洲流动文化的新趋势和主要驱动力,并重点论述了传播的作用。为更好地理解这一复杂的概念,我们采用的方法包括三个主要步骤:首先是文献探索,然后是前瞻,包括战略性地应用前瞻性方法来制定所需的公共政策决定并为其提供信息,最后是反向预测,主要是构建未来情景。在这些步骤中,我们的目标是确定、吸纳和创建一个由哲学、心理学、社会学、地理 学、城市规划、建筑学、经济学、诗歌和艺术等不同领域的高级专家和思想家组成的社 区。这种参与促成了 3 种类型的 29 次科学讨论:与 16 位专家进行了 15 次会谈,与 11 位专家进行了 5 次探索性对话,与 11 位专家进行了 9 次生成性对话。我们还组织了 3 个焦点小组和 5 个研讨会,以深化我们对特定主题的思考,并让更多专家参与其中:流动价值观、对未来流动文化情景的想象、公共利益定义、设计路线图并概述可行战略。对欧洲公民进行了一项调查,让他们参与对愿景的公开咨询。对专家和思想家进行了访谈,以激发他们对流动文化的理解和驱动因素的讨论,确定流动文化的趋势,以及他们如何看待流动文化的未来。我们的想法还包括面对不同或相互冲突的观点,找出细微差别和不确定因素,特别是在流动文化的趋势和未来方面。因此,我们不仅对当前和过去的流动文化进行了展望,而且还对预期的和可能的未来流动文化进行了展望。我们为未来的流动性创造了 4 种(极端)政治和社会情景,并根据希腊神灵为其命名:海格力斯(Hercules)、忒弥斯(Themis)、赫尔墨斯(Hermes)和盖亚(Gaia)。最终结果综合了不同情景中的若干元素。最理想的未来交通显然倾向于公平和福祉的忒弥斯和盖亚文化价值,而效率的赫尔墨斯文化价值则被认为是最有可能的未来的驱动力。预期未来与理想未来之间的这种不匹配清楚地表明了流动文化要素之间的紧张关系。这种差距为欧洲未来的流动性政策指明了方向,即从效率转向充足、关爱和公正等其他价值观。尽管我们的目标是覆盖整个欧洲,但西欧的代表性仍然相对较高。
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