Agricultural and Forest Meteorology最新文献_第4页

Warming-induced changes in leaf phenology could amplify the effects of spring drought on tree seedlings 暖化引起的叶片物候变化可以放大春旱对树苗的影响

IF 5.7 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Pub Date : 2026-03-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111022

Miguel Muñoz-Mazón , Rupert Seidl

Droughts are not only becoming more frequent and intense but are also increasingly occurring at different times of the year. Seasonal shifts in water availability, including changes in early growing-season precipitation, could lead to more frequent spring droughts in temperate ecosystems. However, the ecological effects of warming combined with water shortages at the start of the vegetation period remain incompletely understood. We conducted a climate chamber experiment to examine how warming temperatures (current, + 2 °C and + 4 °C) and the timing of drought (spring vs. summer) interact to affect seedling survival and growth of four temperate tree species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris, Fagus sylvatica, Sorbus aria) with contrasting leaf habit (deciduous vs. evergreen) and drought tolerance (low vs. high).

Using high temporal resolution data from regional weather stations we simulated realistic seasonal changes in weather and drought conditions at the submontane-montane ecotone of the northern Alps. We found that spring drought impacted seedling survival more strongly than summer drought. Under warmer climate, these effects were potentially amplified via two pathways: (i) higher atmospheric water demand and (ii) shifts in phenology that, when not matched by shifts in drought timing, expose seedlings to drought during particularly vulnerable development stages. Our results highlight that warming-induced advances in leaf phenology may compound the effects of drought. The simultaneously reduced efficiency of species adaptations to drought under higher temperatures suggests that hotter droughts could increasingly challenge tree regeneration in temperate forest ecosystems in a warming world.

干旱不仅变得更加频繁和严重，而且越来越多地发生在一年中的不同时间。水分供应的季节性变化，包括生长季早期降水的变化，可能导致温带生态系统中更频繁的春季干旱。然而，在植被期开始时，气候变暖和水资源短缺对生态的影响仍不完全清楚。我们进行了一个气候室实验，研究了温度升高（当前，+ 2°C和+ 4°C）和干旱时间（春季与夏季）如何相互作用，影响四种温带树种（云杉，西尔松，Fagus sylvatica, Sorbus aria）的幼苗存活和生长，这些树种具有不同的叶片习性（落叶与常绿）和耐旱性（低与高）。利用区域气象站的高时间分辨率数据，我们模拟了阿尔卑斯山北部亚山地-山地过渡带的天气和干旱条件的真实季节变化。春季干旱对幼苗成活率的影响大于夏季干旱。在气候变暖的情况下，这些影响可能通过两种途径被放大：(i)更高的大气需水量；（ii）物候变化，如果与干旱时间的变化不匹配，将使幼苗在特别脆弱的发育阶段暴露于干旱。我们的研究结果强调，变暖引起的叶片物候变化可能会加剧干旱的影响。在高温下，物种适应干旱的效率同时降低，这表明，在一个变暖的世界里，更热的干旱可能会日益挑战温带森林生态系统中的树木再生。

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引用次数: 0

Cropland evapotranspiration based on Sentinel-2 shortwave infrared data and ensemble Kalman filter 基于Sentinel-2短波红外数据和集合卡尔曼滤波的农田蒸散发

IF 5.7 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Pub Date : 2026-03-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111035

Lu Liu , Yunjun Yao , Qingxin Tang , Xueyi Zhang , Yufu Li , Joshua B. Fisher , Jiquan Chen , Jia Xu , Xiaotong Zhang , Ruiyang Yu , Zijing Xie , Jing Ning , Jiahui Fan , Luna Zhang

The latent heat of evapotranspiration (LE) is a vital element of agricultural water resources; accurately estimating cropland LE at a fine spatial resolution is crucial for monitoring agricultural drought and estimating crop water requirements. In this study, we propose a shortwave infrared-transformed reflectance (STR)-and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-based Priestley–Taylor (STR–EnKF–PT) model to simulate daily cropland LE using Sentinel-2 data. To evaluate the STR–EnKF–PT model’ performance, we conducted an assessment using ground observations derived from 10 eddy covariance (EC) sites situated in various regions of the United States over the two-year period from 2019 through 2020.The results revealed that STR–EnKF–PT yielded better performance than the competing methods did at four validation sites; additionally, the coefficient of determination (R²) was 0.54∼0.84 at the 99 % confidence level, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 26.1∼38.0 W/m², the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) value was 0.69∼0.91, and the bias was -16.3∼9.4 W/m². Crucially, the ensemble system demonstrated robust probabilistic forecasting capabilities across different validation sites, with an excellent mean reliability score of 0.0010, a mean continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) of 29.91 W/m², and appropriate spread-error relationships with a mean ratio of 1.239, providing reliable probability distributions of LE forecasts beyond deterministic estimates. STR–EnKF–PT was then used to depict the spatial patterns of cropland LE at a 20-m resolution in six different regions across the United States, and the results revealed that it is possible to accurately distinguish the LE status of cultivated land. One innovation is the use of soil moisture (SM) constraints derived from the STR to achieve high-resolution (20-m) cropland LE estimation. Furthermore, the incorporation of EnKF significantly enhances the estimated accuracy of the STR–EnKF–PT model and enables reliable probabilistic forecasting. This approach has significant practical implications for achieving the efficient utilization of cropland irrigation water and agricultural risk management processes.

蒸散发潜热是农业水资源的重要组成部分；在精细空间分辨率下准确估算农田LE对于监测农业干旱和估算作物需水量至关重要。在这项研究中，我们提出了一个基于短波红外变换反射率（STR）和集合卡尔曼滤波（EnKF）的Priestley-Taylor （STR - EnKF - pt）模型，利用Sentinel-2数据模拟农田日LE。为了评估STR-EnKF-PT模型的性能，我们利用2019年至2020年两年期间来自美国不同地区的10个涡动相关（EC）站点的地面观测数据进行了评估。结果表明，STR-EnKF-PT在4个验证位点的性能优于竞争对手的方法；此外，在99%置信水平下，决定系数（R2）为0.54 ~ 0.84，均方根误差（RMSE）为26.1 ~ 38.0 W/m2，克林-古普达效率（KGE）值为0.69 ~ 0.91，偏差为-16.3 ~ 9.4 W/m2。重要的是，该集成系统在不同验证点显示出稳健的概率预测能力，平均可靠度得分为0.0010，平均连续排序概率得分（CRPS）为29.91 W/m2，平均差差比为1.239，提供了可靠的LE预测概率分布，超出确定性估计。利用STR-EnKF-PT在20 m分辨率下对美国6个不同地区的耕地LE进行了空间特征描述，结果表明，STR-EnKF-PT能够准确区分耕地LE状况。其中一个创新是利用STR导出的土壤湿度（SM）约束来实现高分辨率（20米）农田LE估计。此外，EnKF的引入显著提高了STR-EnKF-PT模型的估计精度，实现了可靠的概率预测。这种方法对实现农田灌溉用水的有效利用和农业风险管理过程具有重要的实际意义。

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引用次数: 0

Patterns and drivers of African carbon recovery after disturbance 扰动后非洲碳恢复的模式和驱动因素

IF 5.7 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Pub Date : 2026-03-15 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111061

Haotian Li , Xianfeng Liu , David Makowski , Jean-Pierre Wigneron

Climate extremes and persistent deforestation pose significant threats to Africa's vegetation carbon stocks. However, the patterns of aboveground carbon (AGC) loss, recovery, and their driving factors in Africa remain poorly understood. Here, we utilize low-frequency microwave satellite data to analyze AGC dynamics across Africa during 2010-2020. Results indicate a small net AGC increase of +0.16 ± 0.03 PgC yr^-1 during the study period, composed of gross losses of −1.56 ± 0.26 PgC yr⁻¹ offset by gross gains of +1.72 ± 0.29 PgC yr⁻¹. The total loss in forested areas amount to -0.50 ± 0.07 PgC yr⁻¹, of which degradation accounting for twice as much loss as deforestation. In non-forested areas, the total AGC loss was −1. 06 ± 0.21 PgC yr⁻¹, primarily driven by wildfires (-0.78 PgC yr^-1). Following the 2015–2016 El Niño event, 66 % of affected regions exhibited AGC recovery ratios exceeding 100 % during 2015-2020, predominantly in non-forest vegetation, suggesting a higher recover ratio for non-forest vegetation. In contrast, the remaining 34 % of regions did not fully recover, with an average recovery rate of 58 %, predominantly concentrated in forested areas. A machine learning analysis based on random forest suggests that recovery ratios are primarily influenced by vapor pressure deficit (VPD), followed by precipitation and human footprint. Our study provides a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of African AGC by distinguishing the loss into forest and non-forest vegetation, and also highlights the key drivers of AGC recovery after disturbances. These findings offer valuable insights for ecological conservation, climate adaptation, and global carbon budget assessments.

极端气候和持续的森林砍伐对非洲的植被碳储量构成了重大威胁。然而，非洲地上碳（AGC）损失、恢复的模式及其驱动因素仍然知之甚少。本文利用低频微波卫星数据分析了2010-2020年非洲地区的AGC动态。结果表明，在研究期间，AGC的净增长为+0.16±0.03 PgC -1，其中总损失为- 1.56±0.26 PgC -1，总收益为+1.72±0.29 PgC -1。森林面积的总损失为-0.50±0.07 PgC - 1年，其中退化造成的损失是毁林造成的损失的两倍。在非森林地区，总AGC损失为−1。6±0.21 PgC -1年（-0.78 PgC -1年）。2015-2016年El Niño事件发生后，2015-2020年期间，66%的受影响地区的AGC恢复率超过100%，主要是非森林植被，表明非森林植被的恢复率更高。相比之下，其余34%的地区没有完全恢复，平均恢复率为58%，主要集中在森林地区。基于随机森林的机器学习分析表明，回收率主要受蒸汽压差（VPD）的影响，其次是降水和人类足迹。我们的研究通过区分森林和非森林植被的损失，提供了对非洲AGC动态的全面理解，并强调了干扰后AGC恢复的关键驱动因素。这些发现为生态保护、气候适应和全球碳预算评估提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating the impact of different freezing-point depression equations on permafrost hydrothermal processes in the Arctic and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with CLM5.0 基于CLM5.0评价不同冰点下降方程对北极和青藏高原冻土热液过程的影响

IF 5.7 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Pub Date : 2026-03-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111034

Shenning Wang , Ren Li , Tonghua Wu , Junjie Ma , Wenhao Liu , Shuhua Yang , Yizhen Du , Yao Xiao , Xiaodong Wu , Guojie Hu , Jimin Yao , Shengfeng Tang , Xiaofan Zhu , Jianzong Shi , Yongping Qiao

Soil hydrothermal processes in permafrost regions are critical for land-atmosphere exchange but are challenging to simulate accurately in models, largely due to the parameterization of unfrozen water content. This study evaluated 11 freezing-point depression schemes, derived from combinations of three soil water characteristic curves (SWCCs) and four soil matric potential schemes, using CLM5.0 at six sites across the Arctic and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Results showed regionally dependent optimal schemes. For soil temperature, a combined effective porosity and cryosuction scheme (TEST3) reduced the RMSE by 0.51–0.52°C (7.1–8.3%) in the Arctic, while a cryosuction scheme (TEST10) was best on the QTP, reducing RMSE by 0.04–0.06°C. For soil moisture, a Van Genuchten SWCC scheme with effective porosity (TEST5) reduced RMSE by up to 0.018 m³/m³ (13.2%) in the Arctic, and TEST4/TEST5 performed best on the QTP. The explicit parameterization of residual water content in Brooks & Corey and Van Genuchten SWCCs was a key mechanism, correcting the default scheme's large soil moisture bias by up to 53% during freezing. Cryosuction increased unfrozen water, while effective porosity decreased it. However, model structural limitations caused unreliable matric potential output during freezing. Persistent biases at specific sites were attributed to inaccurate soil texture data, unaccounted lateral flow, and insufficient snow insulation representation. This study highlights the regional applicability of schemes and provides critical insights for improving permafrost simulations.

多年冻土区的土壤热液过程对陆地-大气交换至关重要，但由于未冻水含量的参数化，在模式中难以准确模拟。本研究利用CLM5.0软件对北极和青藏高原6个站点的11个冰点降低方案进行了评价，这些方案由3种土壤水分特征曲线（swcc）和4种土壤基质势方案组合而成。结果显示了区域相关的最优方案。对于土壤温度，有效孔隙度和低温吸力组合方案（TEST3）在北极降低RMSE 0.51 ~ 0.52°C(7.1 ~ 8.3%)，而低温吸力方案（TEST10）在QTP上效果最好，降低RMSE 0.04 ~ 0.06°C。对于土壤水分，具有有效孔隙度（TEST5）的Van Genuchten SWCC方案在北极减少RMSE高达0.018 m3/m3(13.2%)，而TEST4/TEST5在QTP上表现最好。在Brooks & Corey和Van Genuchten swcc中，剩余水分的显式参数化是一个关键机制，它在冻结期间纠正了默认方案中高达53%的土壤水分偏差。低温吸吸增加了未冻水，而有效孔隙率降低了。然而，模型结构的限制导致冻结过程中矩阵电位输出不可靠。特定地点的持续偏差归因于不准确的土壤质地数据、未考虑的横向流动和不充分的雪绝缘表征。这项研究强调了方案的区域适用性，并为改进永久冻土模拟提供了重要的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Disentangling the climatic controls of maximum daily gross primary productivity across terrestrial ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere 解开北半球陆地生态系统最大日总初级生产力的气候控制

IF 5.7 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Pub Date : 2026-03-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111027

Zhaogang Liu , Miao Dou , Ming Zhao , Yirui Xin , Weikang Zhang

Gross primary productivity (GPP), along with its spatial and temporal variations, is a critical component of the global carbon cycle. Maximum daily GPP (GPP_max) is an important indicator of vegetation's physiological capacity and a primary determinant of ecosystem-level GPP. However, the spatial and temporal dynamics of GPP_max and the underlying climatic controls remain poorly understood. This study synthesized GPP_max data from 859 site-years of eddy covariance observations across 103 flux tower sites in the Northern Hemisphere. We examined spatial patterns, interannual variability, and climatic drivers of GPP_max. GPP_max ranged from 0.87 g C m⁻² d⁻¹ to 16.87 g C m⁻² d⁻¹, with a mean of 9.07 ± 3.15 g C m⁻² d⁻¹. Temperate ecosystems exhibited the highest GPP_max, with a mean value of 11.06 ± 2.32 g C m⁻² d⁻¹, whereas arid zones showed the lowest, averaging 6.14 ± 3.24 g C m⁻² d⁻¹. Forest ecosystems showed significantly higher GPP_max than other vegetation types. GPP_max increased with latitude up to 50 °N, then declined. Climatic factors, including radiation, temperature, and water availability, explained 46 % of the spatial variability. Interannual variability in GPP_max ranged from 0.37 % to 56.14 %, with the highest variability in arid zones. Radiation, temperature, and water availability were the dominant climatic drivers at 41 %, 30 %, and 29 % of sites, respectively. These findings provide new insights into the climatic controls and variability of ecosystem photosynthetic capacity, which can improve GPP estimates and contribute to more accurate carbon modeling and enhance predictions of vegetation responses to climate change.

总初级生产力（GPP）及其时空变化是全球碳循环的重要组成部分。最大日GPPmax是植被生理容量的重要指标，也是生态系统水平GPP的主要决定因素。然而，GPPmax的时空动态和潜在的气候控制仍然知之甚少。本研究综合了北半球103个通量塔站点859个站点年涡动相关方差观测的GPPmax数据。研究了GPPmax的空间格局、年际变化和气候驱动因素。GPPmax的范围从0.87 g cm - d⁻¹到16.87 g cm - d⁻¹，平均为9.07±3.15 g cm - d⁻¹。温带生态系统的GPPmax最高，平均为11.06±2.32 g C m⁻²d⁻¹，而干旱地区的GPPmax最低，平均为6.14±3.24 g C m⁻²d⁻¹。森林生态系统的GPPmax显著高于其他植被类型。GPPmax在50°N以内随纬度的增大先增大后减小。气候因素，包括辐射、温度和水的可用性，解释了46%的空间变异。GPPmax的年际变异在0.37% ~ 56.14%之间，以干旱区变异最大。辐射、温度和水分供应分别在41%、30%和29%的站点上是主要的气候驱动因素。这些发现为气候控制和生态系统光合能力的变化提供了新的见解，可以改善GPP估算，有助于更准确的碳模型和加强植被对气候变化响应的预测。

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引用次数: 0

Annual dynamics of net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange in differently managed tallgrass prairies under variable rainfall 降雨变化下不同管理方式高草草原生态系统净二氧化碳交换的年动态

IF 5.7 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Pub Date : 2026-03-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111047

Pradeep Wagle , Brian K. Northup , Xiangming Xiao , Tanka Kandel , Andres Cibils , Stacey A. Gunter

Tallgrass prairies are vital ecosystems that support regional biodiversity and play a crucial role in global carbon cycling. However, the management practices and disturbances they face can significantly alter their roles as carbon sinks or sources. Despite their importance, the carbon source-sink status of differently managed tallgrass prairies, especially under varying weather conditions, remains uncertain. This study utilized eddy covariance measurements of carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes from four co-located tallgrass prairie pastures with different management regimes, including prescribed spring burns, intensive and rotational grazing, and haying. The primary objectives were to thoroughly evaluate the dynamics of net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE) and to investigate how diverse weather conditions affected carbon exchange across differently managed tallgrass prairies in central Oklahoma. The study period (2019-2024) experienced substantial variability in rainfall patterns. As expected, aboveground biomass and satellite-derived enhanced vegetation index (EVI) displayed distinct interannual variations. During the growing season (April-October, DOY ∼100-300), pastures generally behaved as net carbon sinks, with NEE ranging from -33 to -478 g C m⁻². However, the magnitude and duration of the carbon sink and the overall annual carbon balance showed considerable interannual variations. Annual NEE ranged from 104 g C m⁻² (carbon source) to -362 g C m⁻² (carbon sink). Interannual variations in forage production, vegetation dynamics, and NEE were mainly influenced by rainfall variability, with growing season rainfall strongly correlating with peak biomass and EVI (R² = 0.67-0.71). Although management practices modulated these rainfall effects on carbon exchange, random forest analysis showed that EVI was the primary predictor of NEE across pastures, reflecting its capacity to integrate the combined effects of meteorological factors on carbon uptake. Our findings emphasize the need for adaptive management strategies tailored to local rainfall patterns and forecasts to optimize forage production, increase carbon sequestration, and strengthen the resilience of grassland ecosystems.

高草草原是支持区域生物多样性和在全球碳循环中发挥关键作用的重要生态系统。然而，它们面临的管理实践和干扰可能显著改变它们作为碳汇或碳源的作用。尽管它们很重要，但不同管理方式的高草草原的碳源-汇状况仍然不确定，特别是在不同的天气条件下。本研究利用涡流相关方差测量了4个共地高草草原的二氧化碳（CO2）通量，这些牧场采用不同的管理制度，包括规定的春季焚烧、集约放牧和轮牧以及干草。主要目标是全面评估净生态系统二氧化碳交换（NEE）的动态，并调查不同天气条件如何影响俄克拉何马州中部不同管理的高草草原的碳交换。在研究期间（2019-2024年），降雨模式发生了实质性变化。正如预期的那样，地上生物量和卫星反演的增强植被指数（EVI）表现出明显的年际变化。在生长季节（4 - 10月，DOY ~ 100-300），牧场通常表现为净碳汇，NEE范围为-33至-478 g C m - 2。然而，碳汇的大小和持续时间以及年总体碳平衡表现出较大的年际变化。年NEE范围为104g cm−2（碳源）~ -362 g cm−2（碳汇）。牧草产量、植被动态和NEE的年际变化主要受降雨变率的影响，生长期降雨量与峰值生物量和EVI呈强相关（R2 = 0.67 ~ 0.71）。尽管管理措施调节了降雨对碳交换的影响，但随机森林分析表明，EVI是整个牧场新能源经济的主要预测因子，反映了其综合气象因子对碳吸收的综合影响的能力。我们的研究结果强调，需要针对当地降雨模式和预测制定适应性管理策略，以优化牧草生产，增加碳固存，增强草地生态系统的恢复力。

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引用次数: 0

Studying the impact of historical land use/land cover change (1900s–2020s) on land–atmosphere interactions in the Dongting Lake region 洞庭湖区历史土地利用/土地覆被变化（1900 - 2020年代）对陆气相互作用的影响

IF 5.7 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Pub Date : 2026-03-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111033

Liu Yang , Lunche Wang , Qian Cao , Deqing Yu , Shuchen Yu , Zigeng Niu , Qiuhua He , Jiankun Du

Unprecedented land use/land cover changes (LULCC) have occurred in the Dongting Lake region of China. However, the impact of fine-scale LULCC on land–atmosphere interactions on a centennial timescale in regions with complex geographical backgrounds remained unclear. In this study, historical records and remote sensing data were collected and interpreted to derive high-quality land use change datasets for the past century. Based on these datasets, high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations were conducted during a typical summer period (July–August 2018) for three different land cover scenarios: potential natural vegetation (L1900s), agricultural disturbance pattern (L1950s), and urban disturbance pattern (L2020s). The results showed that cropland expansion at the expense of lakes and forests was the most substantial LULCC. Centennial LULCC was associated with regional temperature increases, with lake shrinkage and urbanization both being key factors in driving daytime warming exceeding 1°C, while lake shrinkage induced nighttime cooling that exceeded daytime warming, leading to asymmetric diurnal temperature changes. Lake shrinkage appeared to play a major role in shaping the spatial pattern of atmospheric drying across the region, with a more pronounced reduction approximately 1.9 g/kg, in nighttime atmospheric moisture content. It also weakened wind speeds and caused more dispersed wind directions, while urban expansion enhanced rural-to-urban wind flows. LULCC reduced overall precipitation, with increased rainfall near the lake and decreased precipitation in distant mountainous areas. Our results offered critical insights for understanding lake regions with rapid land use transitions, helping to develop mitigation and adaption strategies under the global warming threat.

洞庭湖区出现了前所未有的土地利用/土地覆盖变化（LULCC）。然而，在复杂地理背景区域，精细尺度LULCC对百年尺度陆地-大气相互作用的影响尚不清楚。在这项研究中，收集并解释了过去一个世纪的历史记录和遥感数据，以获得高质量的土地利用变化数据集。基于这些数据集，在典型的夏季（2018年7 - 8月）对三种不同的土地覆盖情景进行了高分辨率天气研究与预报（WRF）模拟：潜在的自然植被（l1900）、农业干扰模式（l1950）和城市干扰模式（l2020）。结果表明，以牺牲湖泊和森林为代价的耕地扩张是最大的土地利用损失。百年LULCC与区域温度升高有关，湖泊萎缩和城市化都是推动白天升温超过1°C的关键因素，而湖泊萎缩导致夜间降温超过白天升温，导致昼夜温度变化不对称。湖泊萎缩似乎在形成整个区域大气干燥的空间格局中发挥了主要作用，夜间大气水分含量减少了约1.9 g/kg。它还削弱了风速，造成了更分散的风向，而城市扩张增强了城乡风的流动。LULCC减少了总体降水，湖附近降水增加，远山区降水减少。我们的研究结果为理解土地利用快速转型的湖泊地区提供了重要见解，有助于制定全球变暖威胁下的减缓和适应策略。

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引用次数: 0

From past exceptional extremes to frequent future risks: How climate change shapes the fate of common wheat in France 从过去的异常极端天气到未来频繁的风险：气候变化如何影响法国普通小麦的命运

IF 5.7 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Pub Date : 2026-03-15 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111054

Mael Aubry , Benjamin Renard , Thomas Opitz , Renan Le Roux , Marie Launay , Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri , Carina Furusho-Percot

Climate change is reshaping the agroclimatic conditions for wheat, taking some past decennial events to frequent climatic features, substantially increasing the probability of crop stress and yield loss. We propose a method using ecoclimatic indicators combined with probability models, continuous-time regression and copulas, to evaluate — in non-stationary context —the future climate suitability of common wheat in France expressed as the probability of exceeding past decennial thresholds. Under a high-emission scenario, our analysis identifies four emerging risks from 2050 onward: early heat stress and warm nights during the flag-leaf-to-anthesis stage, late warm nights from anthesis to grain maturity, and devernalisation. Precipitation- and humidity-related extremes during the vegetative phase are projected to slightly increase or stagnate, with strong regional and model-specific variability. Mild winters are likely to become a dominant climatic feature by century’s end, while late cold stress events decline sharply. In contrast, reproductive-phase heat stress intensifies markedly, becoming a dominant agroclimatic constraint by century’s end, whereas risks linked to excess moisture or precipitation decrease. Drought-related stress remains mostly stable, due to shorter phenological cycles. By century’s end, under high emission scenario, compound hazards —such as simultaneous drought and heat stress during key reproductive stages—are projected to become 3 to 6 times more frequent than in the historical baseline. Compound mild-winter and wet- or damp-condition events increase 2.5- to 12-fold. Regional disparities emerge: the English Channel coast and the Paris Basin appear comparatively less exposed to these climatic risks, positioning them as potential, though not risk-free, future refuges for wheat cultivation. A low-emission mitigation pathway would reduce the frequency of these risks by a factor of 2 to 6, and reduce interannual risk variability by up to 45% relative to high emissions. These findings highlight priority targets for adaptation and underscore the urgent need for mitigation to safeguard wheat production.

气候变化正在重塑小麦的农业气候条件，使过去十年的一些事件成为频繁的气候特征，大大增加了作物胁迫和产量损失的可能性。我们提出了一种使用生态气候指标结合概率模型、连续时间回归和copulas的方法，来评估在非平稳背景下法国普通小麦的未来气候适宜性，该方法表示为超过过去十年阈值的概率。在高排放情景下，我们的分析确定了从2050年起出现的四个新风险：从旗叶到开花阶段的早期热应激和温暖的夜晚，从开花到谷物成熟的晚温暖的夜晚，以及去化。植被期与降水和湿度相关的极端事件预估将略有增加或停滞，具有很强的区域和模式特异性变率。到本世纪末，暖冬可能成为主要的气候特征，而晚冷应激事件将急剧减少。相反，生殖期热应激显著加剧，到本世纪末成为主要的农业气候制约因素，而与过量水分或降水有关的风险则减少。由于物候周期较短，与干旱相关的胁迫基本保持稳定。到本世纪末，在高排放情景下，复合危害——如关键生殖阶段同时发生干旱和高温胁迫——预计将比历史基线高出3至6倍。复合暖冬和潮湿或潮湿条件事件增加2.5至12倍。区域差异出现了：英吉利海峡沿岸和巴黎盆地受这些气候风险的影响相对较小，使它们成为未来小麦种植的潜在避难所，尽管并非没有风险。低排放缓解途径将使这些风险的发生频率降低2至6倍，并使年际风险变异率相对于高排放降低45%。这些发现突出了适应气候变化的优先目标，并强调了为保障小麦生产而采取减缓措施的迫切需要。

{"title":"From past exceptional extremes to frequent future risks: How climate change shapes the fate of common wheat in France","authors":"Mael Aubry , Benjamin Renard , Thomas Opitz , Renan Le Roux , Marie Launay , Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri , Carina Furusho-Percot","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111054","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111054","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is reshaping the agroclimatic conditions for wheat, taking some past decennial events to frequent climatic features, substantially increasing the probability of crop stress and yield loss. We propose a method using ecoclimatic indicators combined with probability models, continuous-time regression and copulas, to evaluate — in non-stationary context —the future climate suitability of common wheat in France expressed as the probability of exceeding past decennial thresholds. Under a high-emission scenario, our analysis identifies four emerging risks from 2050 onward: early heat stress and warm nights during the flag-leaf-to-anthesis stage, late warm nights from anthesis to grain maturity, and devernalisation. Precipitation- and humidity-related extremes during the vegetative phase are projected to slightly increase or stagnate, with strong regional and model-specific variability. Mild winters are likely to become a dominant climatic feature by century’s end, while late cold stress events decline sharply. In contrast, reproductive-phase heat stress intensifies markedly, becoming a dominant agroclimatic constraint by century’s end, whereas risks linked to excess moisture or precipitation decrease. Drought-related stress remains mostly stable, due to shorter phenological cycles. By century’s end, under high emission scenario, compound hazards —such as simultaneous drought and heat stress during key reproductive stages—are projected to become 3 to 6 times more frequent than in the historical baseline. Compound mild-winter and wet- or damp-condition events increase 2.5- to 12-fold. Regional disparities emerge: the English Channel coast and the Paris Basin appear comparatively less exposed to these climatic risks, positioning them as potential, though not risk-free, future refuges for wheat cultivation. A low-emission mitigation pathway would reduce the frequency of these risks by a factor of 2 to 6, and reduce interannual risk variability by up to 45% relative to high emissions. These findings highlight priority targets for adaptation and underscore the urgent need for mitigation to safeguard wheat production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"379 ","pages":"Article 111054"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146110713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Interannual climatic sensitivity of surface energy flux densities and evapotranspiration in a disturbed and rewetted ombrotrophic bog” [Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 367 (2025) 110501] “扰动和再湿润的共生沼泽中地表能量通量密度和蒸散的年际气候敏感性”[农林气象367(2025)110501]的勘误表

IF 5.7 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Pub Date : 2026-03-15 Epub Date: 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111043

J.L. Exler , J. Skeeter , S.H. Knox , A. Christen , R.D. Moore

引用次数: 0

Tidal irrigation-based rice cultivation enhances coastal blue carbon and decreases GHG emissions in brackish mudflats 以潮汐灌溉为基础的水稻种植增加了沿海蓝碳，减少了咸淡泥滩的温室气体排放

IF 5.7 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.111010

Lang Zhang , Linlin Li , Hualei Yang , Wenbang Tang , Ji Chen , Hongkai Zhou , Ying Huang , Xuechu Chen , Xiuzhen Li , Ming Luo , Xingyun Huang , Faming Wang , Zhenming Ge

Coastal agriculture has been adopted to increase agricultural productivity, whereas its effects on blue carbon ecosystem function and greenhouse gas (GHG) exchange dynamics are unclear. This research examined the impact of tidal saltwater irrigation on agronomic traits, CO₂ uptake, and CH₄ and N₂O emissions within a coastal rice ecosystem (tidal-influenced and saline), and explored the microbial mechanisms responsible for GHGs mitigation. The study was conducted over 2 years on Chongming island, Shanghai, China. Here, the use of 6‰ saltwater for irrigation in sea rice cultivation led to an increase in net ecosystem CO₂ exchange and gross primary productivity, mitigated CH₄ and N₂O emissions through tidal saltwater treatment with a projected decrease in CH₄ emissions during the tillering stage, and was accompanied by a marked upregulation of the AcsB gene associated with CO₂ fixation as well as the PmoA and Nirk2 genes involved in CH₄ and N₂O oxidation. Despite a decrease in plant height, this approach promoted tillering, thereby increasing shoot dry mass and ultimately maintaining rice yields without reduction. The study further revealed the combined CO₂-equivalent emissions of CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O during the tidal saltwater irrigation period, with reductions ranging from 22 % to 39 % for two different sea rice varieties. Therefore, the experimental simulation of tidal saltwater in a coastal rice system demonstrated its ability to sustain yield, increase carbon uptake and mitigate GHG emissions, although the effects were not statistically significant. We suggest that coastal rice cultivation using natural tidal irrigation is an effective approach to strengthen the ecological of coastal tidal mudflats by reducing GHG emissions and enhancing rice yields.

沿海农业已成为提高农业生产力的重要手段，但其对蓝碳生态系统功能和温室气体交换动态的影响尚不清楚。本研究考察了潮汐盐水灌溉对沿海水稻生态系统（潮汐影响和咸水影响）农艺性状、CO2吸收、CH4和N2O排放的影响，并探讨了温室气体缓解的微生物机制。这项研究在中国上海崇明岛进行了两年多的研究。本研究表明，在海稻种植中，使用6‰的盐水灌溉导致生态系统净CO2交换和总初级生产力的增加，通过潮汐盐水处理减轻了CH4和N2O的排放，预计分蘖期CH4排放量将减少，并伴有与CO2固定相关的AcsB基因以及与CH4和N2O氧化相关的PmoA和Nirk2基因的显著上调。尽管降低了株高，但这种方法促进了分蘖，从而增加了茎干质量，最终保持了水稻产量而不减少。该研究进一步揭示了潮汐盐水灌溉期间CO2、CH4和N2O的总CO2当量排放量，两种不同的海稻品种减少了22%至39%。因此，沿海水稻系统中潮汐盐水的实验模拟表明，潮汐盐水具有维持产量、增加碳吸收和减少温室气体排放的能力，尽管这种影响在统计学上并不显著。研究结果表明，利用自然潮汐灌溉进行滨海水稻种植是一种通过减少温室气体排放和提高水稻产量来加强滨海潮滩生态的有效途径。

{"title":"Tidal irrigation-based rice cultivation enhances coastal blue carbon and decreases GHG emissions in brackish mudflats","authors":"Lang Zhang , Linlin Li , Hualei Yang , Wenbang Tang , Ji Chen , Hongkai Zhou , Ying Huang , Xuechu Chen , Xiuzhen Li , Ming Luo , Xingyun Huang , Faming Wang , Zhenming Ge","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.111010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.111010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coastal agriculture has been adopted to increase agricultural productivity, whereas its effects on blue carbon ecosystem function and greenhouse gas (GHG) exchange dynamics are unclear. This research examined the impact of tidal saltwater irrigation on agronomic traits, CO<sub>2</sub> uptake, and CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O emissions within a coastal rice ecosystem (tidal-influenced and saline), and explored the microbial mechanisms responsible for GHGs mitigation. The study was conducted over 2 years on Chongming island, Shanghai, China. Here, the use of 6‰ saltwater for irrigation in sea rice cultivation led to an increase in net ecosystem CO<sub>2</sub> exchange and gross primary productivity, mitigated CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O emissions through tidal saltwater treatment with a projected decrease in CH<sub>4</sub> emissions during the tillering stage, and was accompanied by a marked upregulation of the <em>AcsB</em> gene associated with CO<sub>2</sub> fixation as well as the <em>PmoA</em> and <em>Nirk2</em> genes involved in CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O oxidation. Despite a decrease in plant height, this approach promoted tillering, thereby increasing shoot dry mass and ultimately maintaining rice yields without reduction. The study further revealed the combined CO<sub>2</sub>-equivalent emissions of CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub>, and N<sub>2</sub>O during the tidal saltwater irrigation period, with reductions ranging from 22 % to 39 % for two different sea rice varieties. Therefore, the experimental simulation of tidal saltwater in a coastal rice system demonstrated its ability to sustain yield, increase carbon uptake and mitigate GHG emissions, although the effects were not statistically significant. We suggest that coastal rice cultivation using natural tidal irrigation is an effective approach to strengthen the ecological of coastal tidal mudflats by reducing GHG emissions and enhancing rice yields.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"378 ","pages":"Article 111010"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145883948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0