The COVID-19 pandemic catalyzed potential long-term shifts in the way people move. This research examined how individuals transitioned between work-related mobility patterns throughout the pandemic by conducting a 3‑wave longitudinal survey of Brazilian workers from 2020 to 2022. A combination of latent Markov models and exploratory data analysis was used to understand these transitions. Early in the pandemic, there was a significant shift towards telework, driven largely by the suitability of certain occupations for remote work, car-oriented mobility patterns with lower physical accessibility and increased concerns about contracting the coronavirus. However, after vaccination coverage surpassed 80%, coinciding with eased mobility restrictions and fewer COVID-19 cases, telework frequency decreased and commuting became more widespread. Nevertheless, the data suggest that car-dependent mobility patterns rebounded more strongly than others. Indeed, roughly 20% of those predominantly walking and using public transit before the pandemic were still working remotely at a later stage, whereas this figure was approximately 8% for car users. More concerning, carless-oriented individuals and teleworkers were more likely to switch to car-dependent travel at a later stage than the reverse. The research further reveals that the pandemic may have exacerbated existing disparities, particularly affecting low-income women with lower educational levels who were most vulnerable to COVID-19 exposure before widespread vaccination. These findings underscore the potential negative consequences of the pandemic on urban mobility and highlight the urgency of implementing effective policies to discourage car use and preserve urban density, particularly along mass transit routes and in city centers.
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