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Terror, Output, and Institutions in Africa 非洲的恐怖、产出和制度
IF 1.5 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1111/polp.70067
C. O. Iheonu

This study examined the role of institutional quality in mitigating the negative effect of terrorism on real output in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The study employed data from 42 SSA countries between 2001 and 2020 and used the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) as an estimation strategy to account for endogeneity bias. Two indicators of terrorism, which include the number of terrorist attacks and the number of deaths from terrorism, are used as a proxy for terrorism, and six indicators, which include the control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, voice/accountability, and the polity score, are used to proxy institutional quality. The study finds evidence of the negative influence terrorism has on real output in the region. Additionally, the findings show that improving the quality of institutions in Africa significantly improves real output in the region. However, the study does not find that improving institutional quality can mitigate the negative effect of terrorism on output in the region. These findings suggest that while strong institutions are vital for economic progress, their ability to counter the negative impact of terrorism is limited if deep-rooted security challenges in the region are not addressed. I provide policy recommendations based on these findings.

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Antwi-Boateng, Osman. 2015. “No Spring in Africa: How Sub-Saharan Africa Has Avoided the Arab Spring Phenomenon.” Politics & Policy 43(5): 754–84. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12129.

Iheonu, Chimere O., Princewill U. Okwoche, and Shedrach A. Agbutun. 2024. “The Impact of Democracy on Peace in Africa: Empirical Evidence.” Politics & Policy 52(5): 1038–1058. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12632.

Antwi-Boateng, Osman. 2017. “The Rise of Pan-Islamic Terrorism in Africa: A Global Security Challenge.” Politics & Policy 45(2): 253–284. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12195.

本研究考察了制度质量在减轻恐怖主义对撒哈拉以南非洲实际产出的负面影响方面的作用。该研究使用了2001年至2020年期间来自42个SSA国家的数据,并使用两步系统广义矩量法(GMM)作为估计策略来解释内生性偏差。恐怖主义的两个指标,包括恐怖袭击的次数和恐怖主义造成的死亡人数,被用来代表恐怖主义,六个指标,包括腐败控制、政府效率、监管质量、法治、发言权/问责制和政策得分,被用来代表制度质量。该研究发现了恐怖主义对该地区实际产出产生负面影响的证据。此外,研究结果表明,提高非洲机构的质量可以显著提高该地区的实际产出。然而,该研究并未发现提高制度质量可以缓解恐怖主义对该地区产出的负面影响。这些发现表明,虽然强大的制度对经济发展至关重要,但如果不解决该地区根深蒂固的安全挑战,它们应对恐怖主义负面影响的能力是有限的。我根据这些发现提出了政策建议。安特维-博阿滕,奥斯曼。2015。“非洲没有春天:撒哈拉以南非洲如何避免了阿拉伯之春现象”。政治与政策43(5):754-84。https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12129。Iheonu, Chimere O., Princewill U. Okwoche, and Shedrach A. Agbutun. 2024。“民主对非洲和平的影响:经验证据”。政治与政策52(5):1038-1058。https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12632。奥斯曼·安特维·博阿滕,2017。泛伊斯兰恐怖主义在非洲的崛起:一个全球安全挑战。政治与政策45(2):253-284。https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12195。
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引用次数: 0
A Threshold Effect Analysis of Households' Ability to Maintain Economic Welfare: Rural–Urban Dichotomy in Ghana 家庭维持经济福利能力的阈值效应分析:加纳农村-城市二分法
IF 1.5 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1111/polp.70064
Alhassan A-. W. Karakara, Evans S. Osabuohien, Simplice A. Asongu

This study examines the ability of households to maintain economic welfare and the threshold at which it occurs. We use the Mobile Financial Service Survey (MFSS) data comprising a probability sampling of all Ghanaian households for the econometric analysis. Also, we engage two waves of the Ghana Living Standard Survey (GLSS 6 & 7) and the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS 2008 & 2014) to analyze household poverty trends. Using multinomial logistic regression and Lowess smoothing techniques, we find that poverty is a matter of the nature of residence in Ghana as rural households are poorer than their urban counterparts. Also, education negatively correlates with poverty, and household characteristics influence the poverty status of households through the household's ability to have an emergency fund, to self-finance their typical expenditures, and to pay their bills. Other findings and policy implications are discussed.

本研究考察了家庭维持经济福利的能力及其发生的门槛。我们使用移动金融服务调查(MFSS)数据,包括所有加纳家庭的概率抽样进行计量经济学分析。此外,我们利用两波加纳生活水平调查(GLSS 6 & & 7)和人口与健康调查(DHS 2008 & & & 2014)来分析家庭贫困趋势。使用多项逻辑回归和Lowess平滑技术,我们发现贫困是加纳居住性质的问题,因为农村家庭比城市家庭更贫穷。此外,教育与贫困负相关,家庭特征通过家庭拥有应急基金、自筹典型支出和支付账单的能力影响家庭的贫困状况。本文还讨论了其他研究结果和政策影响。
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引用次数: 0
Naeronambul: The Progressive Paradox in Educational Inequality 教育不平等的进步悖论
IF 1.5 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1111/polp.70063
Seungwoo Han

This study examines the influence of subjective social class on attitudes towards education, arguing that it outweighs ideological orientation. Analyzing cross-national survey data, the findings challenge conventional assumptions about ideological divides, revealing a convergence between progressives and conservatives when subjective class is considered. While progressives traditionally believe that success is independent of familial educational background and conservatives emphasize education's role in achievement, this distinction diminishes as subjective class rises. Both groups increasingly justify the right of high-income individuals to secure superior educational opportunities for their children. This study underscores the primacy of class-based perceptions in shaping educational attitudes, highlighting the limitations of ideological explanations. By demonstrating that subjective class drives perspectives on educational fairness, it contributes to research on inequality and policy debates. The findings illustrate the difficulties of achieving consensus in stratified societies, where socioeconomic status, rather than ideology, determines attitudes towards educational competition and access.

Related Articles

Ayhan, K. J., and N. Snow. 2021. “Introduction to the Special Issue—Global Korea Scholarship: Empirical Evaluation of a Non-Western Scholarship Program from a Public Diplomacy Perspective.” Politics & Policy 49, no. 6: 1282–1291. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12440.

Istad, F., E. Varpahovskis, E. Miezan, and K. J. Ayhan. 2021. “Global Korea Scholarship Students: Intention to Stay in the Host Country to Work or Study after Graduation.” Politics & Policy 49, no. 6: 1323–1342. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12436.

Tam, L., and K. J. Ayhan. 2021. “Evaluations of People, Affection, and Recommendation for a Host Country: A Study of Global Korea Scholarship (GKS) Recipients.” Politics & Policy 49, no. 6: 1292–1307. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12438.

本研究考察了主观社会阶层对教育态度的影响,认为它超过了意识形态取向。通过分析跨国调查数据,研究结果挑战了关于意识形态分歧的传统假设,揭示了在考虑主观阶级时进步派和保守派之间的趋同。虽然进步派传统上认为成功与家庭教育背景无关,而保守派则强调教育在成就中的作用,但这种区别随着主观阶级的上升而减弱。这两个群体越来越多地证明,高收入个人有权为自己的孩子提供更好的教育机会。这项研究强调了阶级观念在塑造教育态度方面的首要作用,强调了意识形态解释的局限性。通过证明主观阶级驱动对教育公平的看法,它有助于研究不平等和政策辩论。研究结果表明,在分层的社会中,社会经济地位而不是意识形态决定了人们对教育竞争和机会的态度,因此很难达成共识。相关文章:李建军,李建军。“专题导论——全球韩国奖学金:公共外交视角下的非西方奖学金项目的实证评价”政治与政策49,不。6: 1282 - 1291。https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12440。F. Istad, E. Varpahovskis, E. Miezan, K. J. Ayhan。2021。“全球韩国奖学金学生:毕业后留在所在国工作或学习的意向。”政治与政策49,不。6: 1323 - 1342。https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12436。Tam, L.和k.j. Ayhan. 2021。“人的评价、情感和东道国推荐:全球韩国奖学金(GKS)获得者的研究”。政治与政策49,不。6: 1292 - 1307。https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12438。
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引用次数: 0
The Economic and Political Legacy of Trump's First Term: Implications for the Second Presidency 特朗普第一任期的经济和政治遗产:对第二任总统的影响
IF 1.5 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1111/polp.70066
Ermir Shahini, Elti Shahini

This comprehensive study investigates the profound and enduring economic consequences of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory on the global economy, as observed through 2024. Utilizing a sophisticated mixed-methods approach, the research combines rigorous quantitative analysis of economic indicators with qualitative assessment of policy shifts, providing a nuanced understanding of long-term changes in international trade relations, financial markets, and socioeconomic dynamics over the past 8 years. The study's key findings reveal that Trump's “America First” policies and protectionist measures, including tariffs on China and the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement into the Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States, and Canada, have had lasting effects on global trade patterns and supply chains. Quantitative analysis demonstrates that stock market volatility remains elevated by 10%–15% above pre-Trump levels, while currencies in countries heavily dependent on United States (US) trade continue to be undervalued by 5%–7%. Foreign direct investment inflows to the US are observed to be 20% lower compared to 2016 levels, and domestic income inequality has increased by 15%. Furthermore, the research identifies significant shifts in global economic power dynamics, with emerging economies, particularly in Asia, gaining increased influence. The study notes a 25% increase in intra-regional trade agreements outside of US influence, indicating a diversification of global economic partnerships. Additionally, the analysis reveals a 30% rise in investments in renewable energy sectors globally, partly in response to the US withdrawal from climate agreements during Trump's tenure. The study concludes that Trump's economic policies have induced structural changes in the global economy, accelerated the rebalancing of global economic powers, and fundamentally altered the nature of international economic relations.

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Garrett Terence M. Sementelli Arthur J. 2023. “Revisiting the Policy Implications of COVID-19, Asylum Seekers, and Migrants on the Mexico–U.S. Border: Creating (And Maintaining) States of Exception in the Trump and Biden Administrations.” Politics & Policy 51, 458 475. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12537.

Moynihan Donald. 2025. “Trump, Personalism, and US Administrative Capacity.” Politics & Policy 53, e70059. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.70059.

Stockemer Daniel. 2025. “Is the US Moving Towards Autocracy? A Critical Assessment.” Politics & Policy 53, e70032. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.70032.

这项全面的研究调查了唐纳德·特朗普2016年大选胜利对全球经济的深远和持久的经济影响,观察到2024年。该研究采用复杂的混合方法,将对经济指标的严格定量分析与对政策变化的定性评估相结合,对过去8年国际贸易关系、金融市场和社会经济动态的长期变化提供了细致入细的理解。该研究的主要发现表明,特朗普的“美国优先”政策和保护主义措施,包括对中国征收关税,以及将北美自由贸易协定重新谈判为美利坚合众国、墨西哥合众国和加拿大之间的协定,对全球贸易格局和供应链产生了持久影响。定量分析表明,股市波动率仍比特朗普上任前高出10%-15%,而严重依赖美国贸易的国家的货币继续被低估5%-7%。据观察,流入美国的外国直接投资比2016年下降了20%,国内收入不平等扩大了15%。此外,该研究还指出,全球经济实力动态发生了重大变化,新兴经济体(尤其是亚洲经济体)的影响力越来越大。该研究指出,不受美国影响的区域内贸易协定增加了25%,表明全球经济伙伴关系的多样化。此外,分析显示,全球可再生能源领域的投资增长了30%,部分原因是美国在特朗普任期内退出气候协议。该研究得出结论,特朗普的经济政策引发了全球经济的结构性变化,加速了全球经济大国的再平衡,从根本上改变了国际经济关系的性质。相关文章加勒特·特伦斯·m·塞门泰利·阿瑟·2009。“重新审视2019冠状病毒病、寻求庇护者和移民对墨西哥-美国的政策影响。《边境:在特朗普和拜登政府中创造(并维持)例外状态》政治与政策51,458 475。https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12537。莫伊尼汉·唐纳德,2025年。“特朗普、个人主义和美国行政能力。”政治与政策53,e700 - 59。https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.70059。斯托克默·丹尼尔,2025。“美国正在走向独裁吗?”一个关键的评估。”政治与政策[j];https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.70032。
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引用次数: 0
Mapping the Perceived Importance of Actors in Social Policy Accountability Across Welfare State Regimes: An Assessment Made by Academic Experts 绘制福利国家制度中社会政策问责行为者的感知重要性:学术专家的评估
IF 1.5 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1111/polp.70062
Ixchel Pérez-Durán, Joaquín Rozas-Bugueño

ABSTRACT

This article examines the role of a range of actors in social policy accountability across different welfare regimes, with a focus on Austria, Denmark, Switzerland, and Spain. Using a survey conducted with academic experts in these four countries, we examine the perceived importance attributed to political institutions, public bodies, and stakeholders. These include governments, political parties, parliaments, autonomous bodies, market-oriented actors, and societal actors. We examine the perceived role of each actor in influencing relationships of social policy accountability between governments and citizens. By doing so, we identify whether social policy accountability modes are primarily based on a supply-side/proactive pattern, where governments responsible for implementing policies play a key role in implementing accountability measures, or on a demand-side/reactive pattern, where the various forums (such as political institutions, autonomous watchdogs, and societal actors) are seen as the most important actors for accountability.

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Luypaert, Anouk, and Peter Thijssen. 2024. “The comparative politics of solidarity: Political party discourse across three welfare state regimes.” Politics & Policy 52 (5): 935–962. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12625.

Mioni, Michele, 2021. “The ‘Good Citizen’ as a ‘Respectable Worker:’ State, Unemployment, and Social Policy in the United Kingdom and Italy, 1930 to 1950.” Politics & Policy 49 (4): 913–39. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12425.

Wagle, Udaya R. 2014. “The Heterogeneity Politics of the Welfare State: Changing Population Heterogeneity and Welfare State Policies in High-Income OECD Countries, 1980-2005.” Politics & Policy 41 (6): 947–84. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12053.

本文考察了不同福利制度中一系列行为者在社会政策问责制中的作用,重点是奥地利、丹麦、瑞士和西班牙。通过对这四个国家的学术专家进行的调查,我们研究了政治机构、公共机构和利益相关者的感知重要性。这包括政府、政党、议会、自治机构、以市场为导向的行动者和社会行动者。我们研究了每个行动者在影响政府和公民之间的社会政策问责关系中的感知作用。通过这样做,我们确定社会政策问责模式是否主要基于供给侧/主动模式,其中负责实施政策的政府在实施问责措施中发挥关键作用,还是基于需求侧/被动模式,其中各种论坛(如政治机构、自治监督机构、社会行为者被视为最重要的问责行为者。吕佩尔特、阿努克和彼得·蒂耶森。2024。“团结的比较政治:三个福利国家政权的政党话语。”政治与政策52(5):935-962。https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12625。米歇尔·米奥尼,2021年。“作为‘受人尊敬的工人’的‘好公民’:1930年至1950年英国和意大利的国家、失业和社会政策。”政治与政策,49(4):913-39。https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12425。瓦格尔,2014。福利国家的异质性政治:经合组织高收入国家人口异质性和福利国家政策的变化,1980-2005。政治与政策41(6):947-84。https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12053。
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引用次数: 0
Personalization and Elite Rhetoric: How the Autocrat's Popularity and Political Repression Influence Policy Speech of Regime Officials 个人化与精英修辞:独裁者的声望与政治压制如何影响政权官员的政策言论
IF 1.5 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1111/polp.70058
Alexander Baturo, Nikita Khokhlov

We study the implications of regime personalization on the incentives of political elites to politicize their policy agenda and express loyalty to the ruler. Because revering the autocrat is one of the observable manifestations of personalization, while the process of personalization may be, in turn, influenced by an increased prevalence of leader-centered rhetoric, isolating the effects of personalization on policy and political rhetoric is difficult. We distinguish between the negative, fear-driven motivation to politicize speech by regime officials and the positive motivation linked to their expectations of regime durability. The former is influenced by political repression, whereas the latter is moored to the ruler's poll standing—of importance for electoral autocracies in particular. Drawing from over 1000 annual legislative addresses of Russian governors in 2007–2023, we show that elites politicize their rhetoric following arrests of their peers, and they also closely track the autocrat's popularity. We contribute to the literature on personalization and authoritarian speech.

我们研究了政权个人化对政治精英将其政策议程政治化和表达对统治者忠诚的激励的影响。因为尊崇独裁者是个人化的一种可观察到的表现,而个人化的过程反过来又可能受到日益流行的以领袖为中心的修辞的影响,孤立个人化对政策和政治修辞的影响是困难的。我们区分了政权官员将言论政治化的消极、恐惧驱动的动机和与他们对政权持久性的期望相关的积极动机。前者受到政治压迫的影响,而后者则与统治者的民意支持率挂钩——这对选举专制国家尤其重要。从2007-2023年俄罗斯州长的1000多个年度立法演讲中,我们发现,精英们在同龄人被捕后,会将他们的言论政治化,他们也会密切关注独裁者的受欢迎程度。我们对个人化和专制言论的文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Africa's Personalist Regimes and Their Foreign Policies: The Exigencies of Regime Security Under Mafia Rule 非洲的个人主义政权及其外交政策:黑手党统治下政权安全的紧迫性
IF 1.4 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1111/polp.70054
John F. Clark

This study examines the foreign policies of African personalist regimes, connecting their internal politics with their external behavior. The study begins by describing the nature of these regimes, distinguishing them from two other regime types common in contemporary Africa. Although these regimes arise through different “pathways to power,” they all exhibit the qualities of mafia organizations, as described herein. The domestic logic of these personalist regimes leads to many similarities in their foreign policies. Yet interstate relations among sets of contiguous personalist regimes display variation in the degree of enmity with them, reflecting significant differences in foreign policies. This variation presents a puzzle: Why do some personalist regimes intervene in the affairs of neighboring states, whereas others do not? This article both traces the overall foreign policy logic of African personalist regimes and attempts to account for the variation in their external behavior.

本研究考察了非洲个人主义政权的外交政策,将其内部政治与外部行为联系起来。该研究首先描述了这些政权的性质,将它们与当代非洲常见的另外两种政权类型区分开来。尽管这些政权是通过不同的“权力途径”产生的,但正如本文所述,它们都表现出黑手党组织的特征。这些个人主义政权的国内逻辑导致其外交政策有许多相似之处。然而,相邻的个人主义政权之间的州际关系表现出对它们敌意程度的差异,反映出外交政策的显著差异。这种差异带来了一个难题:为什么一些个人主义政权会干涉邻国的事务,而另一些则不会?本文既追溯了非洲个人主义政权的总体外交政策逻辑,又试图解释其对外行为的变化。
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引用次数: 0
Introduction to the Special Issue: Personalism and Good Governance 特刊导言:人格与善治
IF 1.4 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1111/polp.70060
Tatiana Kostadinova, Milena I. Neshkova
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引用次数: 0
Personalist Leadership and Corruption: Evidence From Third Wave Democracies 个人主义领导与腐败:来自第三波民主的证据
IF 1.4 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1111/polp.70056
Tatiana Kostadinova, Milena I. Neshkova

This study investigates whether having parties with a dominant leader in the national government is associated with more corruption in political institutions. We argue that personalist regimes tend to foster clientelist networks while weakening the institutions of oversight. Engagement in corrupt activities is shaped by actors' expectations for gains and costs, but in a system where power is concentrated at the top, loyalty is valued more than professionalism, and the behavior of the leader is hard to predict. Data from 32 Eastern European and Latin American countries relate personalist governments to higher levels of grand (political) and petty (bureaucratic) corruption. This relationship becomes more pronounced the longer a regime stays in power. Our findings carry implications for how personalist leadership brought through democratic elections may undermine accountability, fair governance, and the quality of democracy in general.

这项研究调查了在国家政府中拥有一个占主导地位的领导人的政党是否与政治机构中的更多腐败有关。我们认为,个人主义政权往往会助长庇护网络,同时削弱监督机构。参与腐败活动是由参与者对收益和成本的预期决定的,但在一个权力集中在高层的体制中,忠诚比专业更受重视,领导者的行为很难预测。来自32个东欧和拉丁美洲国家的数据表明,个人主义政府与更严重的大(政治)和小(官僚)腐败有关。一个政权掌权的时间越长,这种关系就越明显。我们的研究结果揭示了通过民主选举产生的个人主义领导如何破坏问责制、公平治理和民主的总体质量。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing Political Brand Equity in Policy: Trump and the Centers for Disease Control's “Slow the Spread” Campaign Card 评估政策中的政治品牌资产:特朗普和疾病控制中心的“减缓传播”竞选卡
IF 1.4 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1111/polp.70055
William G. Resh, Temirlan T. Moldogaziev, John D. Marvel, Jochelle Greaves Siew

This study examines the effect of a political actor's brand equity in relation to a salient policy domain. The premise of this work is that political actors establish brands, akin to commercial counterparts, which can accumulate equity in the form of approval ratings. These brands are conveyed through various mechanisms, including symbolic imagery, name, personal appearance, and slogans. Establishing a political brand is important to personalist leaders. Therefore, we explore President Trump's brand equity in the March 2020 “Slow the Spread” public service announcement (PSA) campaign postcard. Using a click heatmap methodology, we test whether subjects' implicit attributions of the PSA to President Trump's brand are associated with approval of his presidency and his handling of the COVID-19 crisis. We find that those who click on Trump's name (rather than other institutional brands presented in the material) exhibit lower approval ratings of his presidency and his performance during the crisis.

本研究检视政治行动者的品牌资产对显著政策领域的影响。这项工作的前提是,政治行为者建立品牌,类似于商业对手,可以以支持率的形式积累权益。这些品牌通过各种机制来传达,包括符号形象、名字、个人形象和口号。建立政治品牌对个人主义领导人来说非常重要。因此,我们在2020年3月的“减缓传播”公益广告(PSA)竞选明信片中探讨了特朗普总统的品牌资产。使用点击热图方法,我们测试了受试者对特朗普总统品牌的隐性归因是否与对他的总统任期和他对COVID-19危机的处理有关。我们发现,那些点击特朗普名字(而不是材料中出现的其他机构品牌)的人,对他的总统任期和危机期间的表现的支持率较低。
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引用次数: 0
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