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Economic Annals-XXI最新文献

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The effects of accounting information system quality on financial performance 会计信息系统质量对财务绩效的影响
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-19 DOI: 10.21003/ea.v193-16
A. F. Anggraeni, S. Winarningsih
Decision-making by management is supported by quality accounting information, which is produced by a quality accounting the current research is to determine empirically the impact of organizational framework on the accounting information systems quality and their effects on the financial status. In this study, we use structural equation modeling with the PLS approach to analyze 72 respondents who come from star hotels in the city of Bandung, West Java, Indonesia. The results show that the overall organizational framework has a dominant impact on the application of quality accounting information systems and directly and indirectly supports the production of quality accounting information. In addition, a quality accounting information system has a strong influence in producing quality accounting information.
管理层的决策是由质量会计信息支持的,质量会计信息是由质量会计产生的,目前的研究是实证地确定组织框架对会计信息系统质量的影响及其对财务状况的影响。在本研究中,我们使用结构方程模型与PLS方法来分析来自印度尼西亚西爪哇万隆市星级酒店的72名受访者。结果表明,整体组织框架对质量会计信息系统的应用具有主导影响,并直接或间接地支持质量会计信息的产生。此外,一个高质量的会计信息系统对产生高质量的会计信息有着重要的影响。
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引用次数: 2
The economic impact of digitalization and the creation of digital products on the development of the state 数字化和数字产品的创造对国家发展的经济影响
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-19 DOI: 10.21003/ea.v193-01
Anton Dziatkovskii, Uladzimir Hryneuski, Aleksandr Dudov, Aleksandra Krylova
The main components of the development of the digital economy as the next stage in the formation of a modern model of the production, technological and social system of society based on the results of the Fourth Industrial Revolution are regulatory regulation, infrastructure, network security (cybersecurity), training of professionals and the formation of technological platforms. This is exactly what the function of the state in partnership with business should be aimed at, the implementation of which requires an appropriate investment policy. The government must continue to strengthen the digital foundations by attracting investment in scalable, smart, and secure infrastructure capable of accelerating the pace of digital development. When implementing an investment strategy, it is important to identify sources in the field of investment - public and private, whose shares should be regulated by a special program «Digital Economy» and pay attention not only to large businesses that are interested in developing all aspects of the digital economy but also to small investors who are mainly represented by Portfolio Investment. An important component is to encourage investment in digitalization. To do this, in the field of investment activity to ensure the support of investment projects, it is necessary to form general rules for creating and evaluating special investment regimes: a list of new approaches to obtaining tax benefits, reducing insurance premiums for both private investors and investment companies implementing various projects, the development of specific measures of state support in one of the following forms: providing benefits for project financing; provision of benefits for the payment of property tax and land tax; compensation of investor investments through various tax revenues from the investment project, stabilization of regulatory and tax conditions. Scientific novelty. The article examines the digital economy as an emerging phenomenon of the annual increase in the share of the world economy, in comparison with the raw materials and commodity part of it. The article considers the latest technologies and their impact on the traditional economy of various countries of the world. The purpose of the article is to study the basic principles of digitalization of the economy, which allow the digital economy to become a full-fledged part of the globalized world.
作为在第四次工业革命成果的基础上形成现代社会生产、技术和社会体系模式的下一阶段,数字经济发展的主要组成部分是监管、基础设施、网络安全、专业人员培训和技术平台的形成。这正是国家与企业合作职能的目标,实施这一职能需要适当的投资政策。政府必须通过吸引对能够加快数字发展步伐的可扩展、智能和安全基础设施的投资,继续加强数字基础设施。在实施投资战略时,重要的是要确定投资领域的来源——公共和私人,其股份应受到“数字经济”特别计划的监管,不仅要关注有兴趣发展数字经济各个方面的大企业,还要关注主要以组合投资为代表的小投资者。一个重要组成部分是鼓励对数字化的投资。为此,在确保投资项目得到支持的投资活动领域,有必要制定建立和评估特殊投资制度的一般规则:一份获得税收优惠的新方法清单,降低私人投资者和实施各种项目的投资公司的保险费,制定具体的国家支持措施,采取以下形式之一:为项目融资提供福利;为缴纳财产税和土地税提供福利;通过投资项目的各种税收收入补偿投资者投资,稳定监管和税收条件。科学新颖性。本文将数字经济视为一种新兴现象,与其中的原材料和商品部分相比,数字经济在世界经济中的份额每年都在增加。文章考虑了最新技术及其对世界各国传统经济的影响。本文的目的是研究经济数字化的基本原则,这些原则使数字经济成为全球化世界的一个完整组成部分。
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引用次数: 1
Risk management practices in the insurance industry with regard to supply chain management 保险业供应链管理方面的风险管理实践
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-19 DOI: 10.21003/ea.v193-13
L. Budovich
Today, fierce competition between manufacturers, increasing the level of innovation and reducing the life cycle of products have led to the design, production and marketing of products with various goals and a variety of risks in macro designs for supply chains. The purpose of this study is to design a strategic supply chain risk management system with a systematic approach to assess and control risks in the insurance industry. This article is an applied research and descriptive, correlational, and multiple regression analysis and path analysis techniques have been used to determine the factors affecting supply chain risk. This research is one-time cross-sectional taken place in 2021. The participant cases were 150, which resulted in 110 samples using Cochran’s sampling formula. Risk assessment and rating determines the superiority of each risk based on relevant indicators and thus provides the opportunity to provide an appropriate response to each risk. In this research, by presenting a comprehensive and hierarchical model for risk assessment, while identifying the main risks of the supply chain by relying on the method of risk failure structure and determining measurement criteria, a comprehensive questionnaire has been prepared based on the relative importance of each risk in the insurance industry. It has been determined as a case study using analytical method.
在厂商竞争激烈、创新水平不断提高、产品生命周期不断缩短的今天,导致供应链宏观设计中产品的设计、生产和营销目标各异,风险也多种多样。本研究的目的是设计一个策略性供应链风险管理系统,以系统的方法来评估和控制保险业的风险。本文应用描述性、相关性、多元回归分析和路径分析等技术来确定影响供应链风险的因素。该研究是在2021年进行的一次性横断面研究。参与案例有150个,使用科克伦抽样公式得到110个样本。风险评估和评级是根据相关指标确定每种风险的优越性,从而提供对每种风险作出适当反应的机会。在本研究中,通过提出一个综合的、分层的风险评估模型,同时依靠风险失效结构的方法和确定度量标准来识别供应链的主要风险,并根据保险业中各风险的相对重要性编制了一份综合性的问卷。用分析方法确定为个案研究。
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引用次数: 0
Market performance of SMEs in the creative economy and the mediating role of innovation practices 创新经济中中小企业的市场表现与创新实践的中介作用
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-19 DOI: 10.21003/ea.v193-09
Sarli Rahman, Budiyanto, Suwitho
Nowadays in Indonesia, the creative economy is currently expected to a new power that will be the Indonesian economic foundation in the future. The primary aim of this article is to investigate the market and the SMEs’ performance in the creative economy section and the mediating role of innovation practices until the year 2021. To meet that aim, the analysis technique called Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) assisted by AMOS 21 software is utilized through the survey of 300 SMEs. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is an integrated of factor or path investigation. The result of this study reveals that the most important factor that can improve the SMEs’ performance in the creative economy sector is innovation practices.
如今,在印度尼西亚,创意经济有望成为一种新的力量,这将是印尼未来的经济基础。本文的主要目的是调查2021年之前市场和中小企业在创意经济领域的表现,以及创新实践的中介作用。为了实现这一目标,通过对300家中小企业的调查,使用了AMOS 21软件辅助的结构方程建模(SEM)分析技术。结构方程建模(SEM)是一种综合因素或路径研究。研究结果表明,创新实践是提高中小企业在创意经济领域绩效的最重要因素。
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引用次数: 0
Project performance in a toll road infrastructure with a public-private partnership scheme 采用公私合作方案的收费公路基础设施项目绩效
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-19 DOI: 10.21003/ea.v193-14
Laode Nusriadi, Ilya Avianti, Nanny Dewi Tanzil, D. Parikesit
Public-private partnership (PPP) models were employed, especially in the toll road sector, by many governments to boost the development of the infrastructure and build strong connections among regions. PPPs are chosen as a scheme to fill the financial gap. Good project governance is one of the crucial points that should be supported by several significant factors, which will significantly affect projects’ performance. This study analyzes the influence of projects’ intellectual capital, investor protection mechanism, and ownership structure on the implementation of good project governance and the implications for their performance. The data were obtained through questionnaires sent to 43 public-private partnerships in toll road projects in Indonesia. The partial-least-square structural equation model (SEM) was subsequently employed to analyze the data. The study findings showed that (1) projects’ intellectual capital and ownership structure affect the implementation of good project governance, (2) the implementation of good project governance affects projects’ performance, and (3) projects’ intellectual capital and ownership structure affect their performance through the implementation of good project governance. However, the other five hypotheses investigated, namely those concerning projects’ intellectual capital, investor protection mechanism, ownership structure in project performance, investor protection mechanism for the implementation of good project governance, and project performance through the implementation of good project governance, were not supported. This study provides a knowledge basis enabling decision makers to understand precisely the factors that affect project performance through the implementation of good project governance.
许多政府采用公私合作(PPP)模式,特别是在收费公路部门,以促进基础设施的发展,并在各地区之间建立强有力的联系。购买力平价被选为填补财政缺口的方案。良好的项目治理是几个重要因素支持的关键点之一,这些因素将对项目的绩效产生重大影响。本研究分析了项目的知识资本、投资者保护机制和所有权结构对实施良好项目治理的影响及其对其绩效的影响。这些数据是通过向印度尼西亚43个收费公路项目的公私伙伴关系发送的问卷获得的。随后采用偏最小二乘结构方程模型(SEM)对数据进行分析。研究结果表明:(1)项目的智力资本和所有权结构影响良好项目治理的实施。然而,调查的其他五个假设,即关于项目的知识资本、投资者保护机制、项目绩效中的所有权结构、实施良好项目治理的投资者保护机制以及通过实施良好项目管理实现项目绩效的假设,都没有得到支持。这项研究提供了一个知识基础,使决策者能够通过实施良好的项目治理来准确了解影响项目绩效的因素。
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引用次数: 1
Educational dominant of the information economy development: a case of Latvia for Ukraine 教育对信息经济发展的主导作用:以拉脱维亚为例
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-21 DOI: 10.21003/ea.v192-09
A. Djakona, N. Kholiavko, M. Dubyna, A. Zhavoronok, M. Fedyshyn
Introduction. In recent years, digitalization is one of the defining trends of the development in the leading countries of the world. The development of information economy is influenced by a combination of factors; however, the most powerful is an educational dominant. The higher education institutions (HEIs) carry out training activities for information economy, the development of digital skills of the personnel, as well as carrying out studies of the personnel’s digital skills, and conducting research, generating innovations and their transfer to the real sector of economy. The purpose of the paper is to analyze the impact of higher education on the dynamics of information economy on the example of Latvia with further identification of the best practices and their adaptation to the Ukrainian social and economic conditions. The research methodology is conditioned by the implementation of the in-depth comparative analysis of the development of higher education systems in Latvia and Ukraine; within the study, were used the method of constructing cubic regression models of the relationship between indicators. The hypothesis: 1) there is an objective interaction between the level of economic development of the country and the amount of public funding for higher education; 2) the information economy development is largely determined by the level of higher education development, and funding for research at HEIs. Results. The study revealed the following constraints on the development of the national higher education system: complex geopolitical, demographic, migration situation, which affects the parameters of the student body of HEIs; low competitiveness level of HEIs in the global educational services market; low level of financial autonomy of HEIs; lack of financing, low level of diversification of the financing sources for HEIs, etc. These problems negatively affect the pace of the information economy development in Ukraine. The authors proved that the Latvian experience in the implementation of the digitalization strategy could be useful for Ukraine, because of some similar economic, social, mental, historic conditions and factors of development of both countries. The calculations on the econometric models of relationship between funding and basic indicators of higher education development in Ukraine and Latvia showed: the amount of funding for higher education systems does not depend on the number of HEIs; the number of students depends on the amount of public funding (this indicates the important role of the state in the higher education development, in increasing the level of accessibility of higher education for citizens); close relationship between the amount of funding for higher education and the number of graduate students; positive trend in funding for higher education. Conclusions. The authors conclude that strengthening the impact of the educational dominant on the information economy development requires: ensuring a proactive positio
介绍。近年来,数字化是世界主要国家发展的决定性趋势之一。信息经济的发展受到多种因素的综合影响;然而,最强大的是教育主导。高等教育机构开展信息经济培训活动,培养人员的数字技能,开展人员数字技能研究,开展研究、创新并将其转化为实体经济。本文的目的是分析高等教育对信息经济动态的影响,以拉脱维亚为例,进一步确定最佳做法及其对乌克兰社会和经济条件的适应。研究方法以拉脱维亚和乌克兰高等教育系统发展的深入比较分析的实施为条件;在研究中,我们采用了构建三次回归模型的方法来分析各指标之间的关系。假设:1)国家的经济发展水平与高等教育公共经费之间存在客观的相互作用;2)信息经济的发展在很大程度上取决于高等教育的发展水平和高等学校的研究经费。结果。研究发现,制约我国高等教育体系发展的因素主要有:复杂的地缘政治、人口、移民形势影响了高等学校生源参数;高等学校在全球教育服务市场的竞争力不强;高校财政自主程度低;缺乏资金,高等学校的资金来源不多样化等。这些问题影响了乌克兰信息经济发展的步伐。作者证明,拉脱维亚在实施数字化战略方面的经验可能对乌克兰有用,因为两国的经济、社会、精神、历史条件和发展因素相似。对乌克兰和拉脱维亚高等教育发展基本指标与资金关系的计量经济模型计算表明:高等教育系统的资金数额不取决于高等教育机构的数量;学生的数量取决于公共资金的数量(这表明国家在高等教育发展中的重要作用,在提高公民接受高等教育的机会水平方面);高等教育经费数额与研究生人数密切相关;高等教育拨款呈积极趋势。结论。加强教育主导权对信息经济发展的影响需要:确保高等学校的主动地位(通过教育、研究和创新活动的现代化);激活政府部门在保护知识产权方面的作用,刺激创新活跃企业的发展及其与大学的合作,包括投资发展高等教育机构的创新基础设施,将创新研究成果在实体经济领域商业化。
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引用次数: 16
Specialized Financial Court: experience of the United Kingdom and prospects for Ukraine 专门金融法院:联合王国的经验和乌克兰的前景
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-21 DOI: 10.21003/ea.v192-13
T. Hudima, Olena Chaban, V. Oliukha
The increase of loan defaults is one of the major factors which adversely influence the activity of the banking institutions and banking system in general. Moreover, it results in the financial destabilization and the deterioration of the Ukrainian investment climate. The issues of arrears in the sphere of Banking and Finance together with the inconsistency in judicial approach applied in the course of litigation related to the loan defaults have a negative impact on the Banking ability and willingness to support the development of the national economy. All the mentioned factors lead to the decline of the pace and scale of social production, the welfare of the society. Therefore, the amount of credit debt owed by banking institutions in Ukraine amounts to almost half of their total loan portfolio. This proves the necessity to find new approaches to resolve the challenging situation that exists on the financial market. The international experience of high working standard is deemed to be of a particular importance. Our study is devoted to the analysis of the relevance of establishing the separate specialized financial or credit court in Ukraine. The experience of the United Kingdom in this regard has been analysed and proposals have been made to improve the national judicial system. It has been proved that the creation of a specialized financial court may complicate the work of the judicial system and affect their efficiency. It is argued that the appropriate specialization of individual judges within the commercial jurisdiction and implementation of particular criteria and thresholds for the financial cases to be allocated to and heard by the commercial courts of Ukraine are much more efficient and effective steps.
贷款违约的增加是对银行机构和整个银行体系的活动产生不利影响的主要因素之一。此外,它还造成了金融不稳定和乌克兰投资环境的恶化。银行和金融领域的拖欠问题以及在贷款违约诉讼过程中适用的司法方法的不一致,对银行支持国民经济发展的能力和意愿产生了负面影响。所有这些因素导致社会生产的速度和规模下降,社会福利下降。因此,乌克兰各银行机构所欠的信贷债务数额几乎占其贷款组合总额的一半。这证明有必要寻找新的方法来解决金融市场上存在的具有挑战性的情况。高工作标准的国际经验被认为是特别重要的。我们的研究致力于分析在乌克兰建立独立的专门金融或信贷法院的相关性。对联合王国在这方面的经验进行了分析,并提出了改进国家司法制度的建议。事实证明,设立一个专门的财政法庭可能使司法系统的工作复杂化,并影响其效率。有人认为,在商事管辖范围内使个别法官适当专业化,并执行分配给乌克兰商事法庭和由其审理的金融案件的特定标准和门槛,是效率高得多的有效步骤。
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引用次数: 0
Marketing management risks of online business: taxonomy, verification and assessment 网络商务营销管理风险:分类、验证与评估
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-21 DOI: 10.21003/ea.v192-11
A. Natorina, M. Butko
Introduction. Digital transformation, which is characterized by the rapid pace of changes in the marketing environment, aggressive actions of competitors, high heterogeneity of consumer requests and preferences, has a significant impact on the business, namely, it requires the generation and implementation of new approaches to solving business problems, as well as achieving the set goals. In order to effectively conduct and develop an online business, it is necessary to follow new tendencies and trends in meeting the constantly growing requests, needs and preferences of online buyers, simultaneously levelling or eliminating risks that may arise in the short and long term with the greatest probability, as well as have negative effects for business. Purposes of our research are to develop the taxonomy marketing and management risks of online business by using multidimensional systematization and decomposition methods; to substantiate the scientific and methodical approach to verification and qualitative assessment of probability of the marketing and management risks for online business; to formulate recommendations regarding the formation of an intelligent IT security system for levelling and / or eliminating the risks of online business in the context of the implementation of the relevant risk management plan; to develop and test applied tools for effective risk management of online business. Methods. The symbiosis of general and specific methods is used to achieve the purposes, including: methods of dialectical cognition, generalization and systematization, abstraction, synthesis; statistical, dynamic and cluster analysis; formalization method; expert survey; calculation-analytical and comparative methods; matrix method. Results. The marketing management risks of online business in the digital transformation context are explicated and concretized. The taxonomy of marketing-management risks of online business is developed and represented like a multi-dimensional risks systematization as a result of their decomposition. The scientific and methodical approach to verification and qualitative assessment of the probability of the marketing and management online business risks is substantiated. The algorithm for the identification of the online business risks status is proposed. It reflects the consecutive stages of the qualitative risks groups assessment and determines the choice of a method for its levelling and / or elimination. The framework of the risk management plan for online business is developed. This framework takes into account triggers and consequences of risks onset. The matrix for monitoring the implementation of the risk management plan for online business is compiled. The phases of the intelligent IT security system development are substantiated. Conclusions. The proposed scientific and methodical approach and the developed applied tools are tested by the example of Ukrainian retailers’ online businesses. The testing results reflect the
介绍数字化转型的特点是营销环境的快速变化、竞争对手的积极行动、消费者需求和偏好的高度异质性,它对业务产生了重大影响,即需要制定和实施解决业务问题的新方法,以及实现既定目标。为了有效地开展和发展在线业务,有必要遵循新的趋势和趋势,满足在线买家不断增长的要求、需求和偏好,同时最大限度地降低或消除短期和长期可能出现的风险,以及对业务产生的负面影响。我们研究的目的是通过多维系统化和分解的方法,开发在线业务营销和管理风险的分类;证实对在线业务营销和管理风险概率进行验证和定性评估的科学和有条理的方法;在实施相关风险管理计划的背景下,制定关于建立智能信息技术安全系统的建议,以平衡和/或消除在线业务的风险;开发和测试用于在线业务有效风险管理的应用工具。方法。采用一般方法与具体方法共生的方法来达到目的,包括:辩证认识方法、概括系统方法、抽象综合方法;统计、动态和聚类分析;形式化方法;专家调查;计算分析和比较方法;矩阵方法。后果对数字化转型背景下网络企业的营销管理风险进行了阐述和具体化。网络企业营销管理风险的分类是通过对其进行分解而形成的一个多维风险系统。科学而有条理的方法来验证和定性评估营销和管理网上商业风险的可能性是有根据的。提出了在线商业风险状态识别算法。它反映了定性风险组评估的连续阶段,并确定了对其进行调平和/或消除的方法的选择。制定了在线业务风险管理计划的框架。该框架考虑了风险发生的诱因和后果。编制了在线业务风险管理计划执行情况监测矩阵。论证了智能信息技术安全系统的发展阶段。结论。以乌克兰零售商的在线业务为例,对所提出的科学、有条理的方法和所开发的应用工具进行了测试。测试结果反映了作者的发展和建议的重要性,以及实施这些建议对数字化转型背景下成功建立和发展在线业务的便利性。
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引用次数: 0
Conceptual changes of fiscal regulation of agricultural land use: international experience and Ukrainian practice 农业用地财政管制的观念变迁:国际经验与乌克兰实践
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-21 DOI: 10.21003/ea.v192-06
O. Garazha, D. Shyian, I. Cherneha, A. Burliai, O. Zharun, N. Blenda
On the basis of the analysis of international standards of land and real estate valuation and modern scientific researches devoted to the actual issues of land and real estate valuation for fiscal purposes, the authors substantiate the problematic aspects of the formula «land valuation - land payment - budget», which are becoming the basis of public fiscal policy in many countries of the world, and including Ukraine, are grounded. The authors of the article show that the effective valuation of land in the national context depends on the fiscal policy of the state in relation to the tax burden of agricultural enterprises in three-dimensional space, according to the first option - using market prices to determine of the land tax, according to the second option - if it is necessary to establish land rent on the basis of the market prices when the real value of land will be reflected instead of the normative, according to the third option - it is possible if there is market for agricultural land. The authors substantiate the problem of land valuation in its global and general economic measure, and, simultaneously, on the example of the Ukrainian practice, which proves the need to develop a sound methodology for fiscal regulation of agricultural land use, taking into account national specific.
在分析土地和房地产估价的国际标准和现代科学研究的基础上,为财政目的而致力于土地和房地产估价的实际问题,作者证实了公式“土地估价-土地支付-预算”的问题方面,这正在成为世界上许多国家,包括乌克兰的公共财政政策的基础。文章的作者表明,土地在国家背景下的有效的估值取决于国家的财政政策与农业企业的税收负担在三维空间中,根据第一个选项——使用市场价格确定的土地税,根据第二个选项——如果有必要建立土地租金的基础上时,市场价格将反映土地的实际价值而不是规范,根据第三种选择——如果有农业用地市场,这是可能的。作者在其全球和一般经济措施中证实了土地估价问题,并同时以乌克兰的做法为例,证明有必要在考虑到各国具体情况的情况下制定一种健全的农业土地使用财政管制方法。
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引用次数: 0
Export concentration and diversification impact on economic growth in the developed and developing countries of the world 出口集中和多样化对世界发达国家和发展中国家的经济增长都有影响
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-21 DOI: 10.21003/ea.v192-03
V. Dergachova, A. Dunska, V. Holiuk, I. Lutsenko, Maryna Pichugina
There is much evidence that export diversity has a positive effect on economic growth, but there is some evidence that the concentration of exports may be also related to economic growth. The paper is dedicated to the relationship between export diversification and economic growth in developed and developing countries for 25 years (1996-2020) and 10 years (2011-2020). Correlation between concentration index (Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index), diversification index (modified Finger-Kreinin measure of similarity in trade) and economic growth was studied to confirm or deny the statements concerning positive or negative influence of export diversification and concentration on economic growth. The results of the study show that concentration index is lower in developed countries and does not varies much over time. While developing countries show higher magnitudes of this index and higher volatility level of this index and its relationship to the world business cycles. Level of export diversification is higher in developed countries, which show more similar export structure to the world pattern comparing with other national economies. Diversification index dynamics in developed and developing countries was getting closer to each other in 2012-2020 and now they are almost the same, though export diversification level of developed countries is a bit closer to the world export pattern comparing to the developing countries index. The findings show that in developing countries export concentration index has sufficient correlation with their GDP growth rates in both periods. That means the more key goods they sell the higher GDP growth rate they get. There is no long-time influence on economic development of these states according to this lagged correlation study of 1996-2020 period. Study based on 10-year period show sufficient 1-year lagged correlation rate, but the hypothesis concerning lagged positive impact of export concentration of economic development of these countries during the last decade needs proof. Developed countries have weak or moderate correlation between export concentration and GDP growth. Hence, developing countries mostly concentrate their export on a few primary goods but there is a need of additional research to find out if they use this money to develop other industries. Eventually there are different economies in these groups and some of them have different exports patterns and development models. Correlation analysis of the relationship between diversification index and GDP growth in 25-year period has shown weak or rather moderate association that does not give us possibility to make an assumption concerning the sufficient impact of export diversification on economic growth. However, in 10-year study we observe high correlation between these data in developing countries, especially in 5-year lag study. If in case of developing countries we observe positive relationship, analysis of developed countries indices shows negative relationsh
大量证据表明,出口多样性对经济增长有积极影响,但也有一些证据表明,出口集中度也可能与经济增长有关。本文研究了25年(1996-2020)和10年(2011-2020)的发达国家和发展中国家出口多样化与经济增长的关系。本文研究了集中度指数(Herfindahl-Hirschmann指数)、多样化指数(修正的Finger-Kreinin贸易相似性测度)与经济增长的相关性,以证实或否定出口多样化和集中度对经济增长的积极或消极影响。研究结果表明,发达国家的浓度指数较低,且随时间变化不大。而发展中国家则表现出较高的指数幅度和较高的波动性及其与世界商业周期的关系。发达国家出口多样化程度较高,出口结构与世界格局的趋同程度高于其他国家。2012-2020年,发达国家和发展中国家出口多样化指数动态趋近,但发达国家出口多样化水平比发展中国家出口多样化指数更接近世界出口格局。研究结果表明,在发展中国家,出口集中度指数与两个时期的国内生产总值增长率有充分的相关性。这意味着他们销售的关键商品越多,他们的GDP增长率就越高。根据1996-2020年的滞后相关性研究,这些州的经济发展不存在长期影响。以10年为周期的研究显示出足够的1年滞后相关率,但关于出口集中度对这些国家近10年经济发展的滞后正向影响的假设有待证实。发达国家出口集中度与GDP增长的相关性较弱或中等。因此,发展中国家的出口主要集中在少数初级产品上,但需要进一步研究,以查明它们是否利用这些钱发展其他行业。最终,这些集团中有不同的经济体,其中一些有不同的出口模式和发展模式。对出口多样化指数与国内生产总值(GDP)增长25年的相关性分析表明,出口多样化指数与GDP增长之间的相关性较弱或较为温和,这使得我们无法对出口多样化对经济增长的充分影响做出假设。然而,在10年的研究中,我们观察到这些数据在发展中国家之间具有很高的相关性,特别是在5年的滞后研究中。如果在发展中国家的情况下,我们观察到正相关,发达国家指数的分析显示负相关,这证实了关于出口多样化在发达国家经济增长中的作用和发展中经济体出口集中度的说法。出口模式越偏离全球结构(相当多样化),其增长水平越高。因此,他们的出口主要由几种产品组成。发达国家多样化指数与GDP增长呈负相关关系,证实了出口多样化应促进经济增长的著名论断。这些情况下的滞后动力学需要进一步的研究。以下研究的问题清单还包括在不同发展水平的经济体中寻找出口多样化指数与增长率之间非线性关系的模型。这项研究也集中于转型期经济组,其结果与发达经济体相比,与发展中国家更为相似。转型经济体的出口集中指数比发展中国家高,也更不稳定;与发展中国家和发达国家相比,出口多样化指数要大得多。我们认为,这些结果反映了转型经济体现有的初级产品出口战略。能源出口国家的集中和多样化指数最高。研究结果证实了出口多样化对经济增长有积极作用的说法。研究表明,在发达国家,经济增长通常与多样化的出口篮子有关。该研究还表明,在过去的25年里,发展中经济体提供增长并不一定需要多样化的出口。一些国家在初级产品出口的推动下经济持续增长。
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引用次数: 2
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Economic Annals-XXI
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