Climate Risk Management最新文献_第9页

The role of climate and urbanization in compound meteorological event exposure in China’s megacities 气候和城市化在中国特大城市复合气象事件暴露中的作用

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100722

Liling Chu , Chao Xu , Yanwen Wang , Chaoqing Huang , Zhaoliang Zeng , Yilin Li , Yiqi Zhou , Qian Wu , Pingan Jiang , Xusheng Gong , Yujia Hong , Chao He

Compound precipitation and wind speed extremes (CPWE) pose significant threats to the sustainable development of urban areas. This study investigated the spatial evolution characteristics, potential population exposure risk, and multidimensional inequality of CPWE within nine urban agglomerations in China, each containing at least one city with a GDP exceeding one trillion yuan, utilizing spatiotemporal statistics and attribution analysis. The results indicated that the intensity of CPWE in these urban agglomerations decreased from southeast to northwest, and the population exposed to mild, moderate, severe, and extreme levels accounted for 58 %, 28.3 %, 11.4 %, and 2.3 % of the total, respectively. Changes in exposure risk were driven by climate effect (58.29 % ± 12.77 %), followed by population (32.15 % ± 6.20 %) and interaction effect (9.55 % ± 5.14 %). Pearl River Delta (PRD) and Yangtze River Delta (YRD), identified as particularly vulnerable, experienced an increase in CPWE intensity exceeding 0.015 /10a. An increase of approximately 0.62 × 10⁴ people per decade was observed for exposure risk, with over 20 % of the population facing severe or extreme levels, mainly due to the climate effect. CPWE exposure risk was significantly unequal across various dimensions (spatial autocorrelation: Moran’s I = 0.3798, P = 0.001; Gini coefficient: 0.08–0.5). Areas characterized by high-risk and balanced development (e.g., PRD, YRD) exhibited lower inequality, whereas regions featuring low-risk and concentrated development (e.g., GPZ) demonstrated higher inequality. The climate effect was the predominant influence in the low-risk areas as well as most high-risk areas. These findings support the targeted implementation of appropriate climate adaptation policies to promote regional sustainable development.

复合降水和极端风速（CPWE）对城市地区的可持续发展构成了重大威胁。利用时空统计和归因分析方法，研究了中国9个城市群（每个城市群至少包含一个GDP超过万亿元的城市）CPWE的空间演化特征、潜在人口暴露风险和多维不平等。结果表明：城市群CPWE强度由东南向西北递减，轻度、中度、重度和极端暴露人群分别占总量的58%、28.3%、11.4%和2.3%；气候效应（58.29%±12.77%）是影响暴露风险的主要因素，其次是人群效应（32.15%±6.20%）和相互作用（9.55%±5.14%）。特别脆弱的珠江三角洲和长江三角洲的CPWE强度增幅超过0.015 /10a。观测到暴露风险每十年增加约0.62 × 104人，其中20%以上的人口面临严重或极端水平，主要是由于气候影响。CPWE暴露风险在各维度上存在显著不平等(空间自相关：Moran’s I = 0.3798, P = 0.001；基尼系数：0.08-0.5)。高风险和均衡发展地区（如珠三角、长三角）的不平等程度较低，而低风险和集中发展地区（如GPZ）的不平等程度较高。在低风险区和大部分高风险区，气候效应是主要影响因素。这些发现支持有针对性地实施适当的气候适应政策，以促进区域可持续发展。

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引用次数: 0

Disaster vulnerability hotspots in the Portland metro-region: Converging indices for equitable resilience 波特兰都市圈的灾害脆弱性热点：公平复原力的趋同指数

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100714

Idowu Ajibade , Matthew Walter , Jason Sauer , Aswatha Raghunathasami , James M. Done , Paul Loikith , Chris Lower , Heejun Chang , Arun Pallathadka , Mae E. Sowards , Ming Ge

As climate-related extreme events intensify across the globe, governments, practitioners, and communities have focused on reducing vulnerability and building resilience. However, debates persist about the validity, differences, and similarities between social vulnerability and resilience indices. This study combines the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) (26 indicators) and the Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities (BRIC) (52 indicators) to assess the Portland Metro region using ACS (2016–2020) and 2020 Census data. Through hotspot analysis, Pearson’s correlation, and linear regression, we identify key drivers as well as areas of convergence and divergence between the two indices. Results show a strong overlap between SoVI and BRIC, with distinct drivers across counties and census tracts. High SoVI/low BRIC hotspots were found in Clackamas and Multnomah counties. In Clackamas, vulnerability was due to limited hospital access, weak infrastructure and institutions, mobile homes, and inadequate community resources. In Multnomah, poverty, low educational attainment, and single-parent households were the primary drivers of vulnerability. While Clackamas had stronger environmental resilience, Multnomah showed higher resilience than Washington County due to better transportation, institutions, and community capital. Having a high proportion of migrant populations, institutionalized residents, and mobile homes reduced resilience in Washington County. These findings support the combined use of SoVI-BRIC indices for targeted resilience planning and equitable resource allocation for infrastructure development, environmental protection, social programs, and emergency preparedness across multiple scales.

随着与气候相关的极端事件在全球范围内不断加剧，各国政府、从业者和社区都将重点放在降低脆弱性和增强抵御能力上。然而，关于社会脆弱性和恢复力指数之间的有效性、差异性和相似性的争论仍然存在。本研究结合了社会脆弱性指数（SoVI）（26个指标）和社区基线弹性指标（BRIC）（52个指标），使用ACS（2016-2020）和2020年人口普查数据对波特兰地铁地区进行了评估。通过热点分析、Pearson’s correlation和线性回归，我们发现了两个指数之间的关键驱动因素以及趋同和分化区域。结果显示，SoVI和金砖四国之间有很强的重叠，不同国家和人口普查区的驱动因素不同。高SoVI/低金砖国家热点地区位于克拉克马斯县和摩特诺玛县。在克拉卡马斯，脆弱性是由于医院服务有限、基础设施和机构薄弱、流动住房和社区资源不足。在摩特诺玛，贫困、受教育程度低和单亲家庭是造成脆弱性的主要因素。克拉克马斯县具有更强的环境恢复力，而摩特诺玛县由于交通、制度和社区资本的改善而比华盛顿县表现出更高的恢复力。高比例的移民人口、机构居民和流动房屋降低了华盛顿县的恢复能力。这些发现支持将SoVI-BRIC指数结合使用，在多个尺度上为基础设施发展、环境保护、社会项目和应急准备进行有针对性的复原力规划和公平的资源分配。

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引用次数: 0

Climate extremes are critical to maize yield and will be severer in North China 极端气候对玉米产量至关重要，在中国北方将更为严重

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100710

Yan Wang , Yan-Jun Shen , Shui Yu , Xiaolong Zhang , Dengpan Xiao

With climate change, the frequency and intensity of climate extremes have increased significantly, exerting remarkable impacts on agricultural production in China. Irrigation, as an efficient agricultural management approach to maintaining the crop yield, was widely but unevenly implemented in China. Elucidating the impacts of climate change on maize yield and the role of irrigation in mitigating the climate change impacts on maize yield is critical to enhance the resilience of the national food system. Here, the key growing period and the sensitive meteorological indicators to maize yield variation in two major maize producing regions of China were revealed using the multiple regression models. The results indicate that the reproductive growing period and the precipitation-related indicators are more prominent for the maize yield variation in the North China Plain, whereas in Northeast China Plain, the vegetative growing period and the temperature-related indices contribute more to the maize yield. Among all meteorological indicators, the heat degree days and the consecutive dry days are the most influential meteorological factors to maize yield, and the heat degree days are projected be increasing drastically in the future, bring more heat threats to the maize yield. Result show that agricultural irrigation could significantly mitigate the dependence of maize yields variation on climate change, the determination coefficients of climate indices on maize yield decreased by 0.10 and 0.15 for the North China Plain and Northeast China Plain as the irrigation intensity increased. Adaptable solutions concerning the impact of extreme climates and the construction of agricultural irrigation facilities should be taken into consideration to cope with climate change and ensure the food security.

随着气候变化，极端气候发生的频率和强度显著增加，对中国的农业生产造成了巨大影响。灌溉作为保持作物产量的一种高效农业管理方法，在中国得到广泛实施，但实施情况参差不齐。阐明气候变化对玉米产量的影响以及灌溉在减轻气候变化对玉米产量影响方面的作用，对于提高国家粮食系统的抗灾能力至关重要。本文利用多元回归模型揭示了中国两个玉米主产区玉米产量变化的关键生长期和敏感气象指标。结果表明，在华北平原，生殖生长期和降水相关指标对玉米产量变化的影响更为显著；而在东北平原，营养生长期和温度相关指标对玉米产量的影响更大。在所有气象指标中，高温日数和连续干旱日数是对玉米产量影响最大的气象因素，预计未来高温日数将急剧增加，给玉米产量带来更大的高温威胁。结果表明，农业灌溉可以显著缓解玉米产量变化对气候变化的依赖，随着灌溉强度的增加，华北平原和东北平原气候指数对玉米产量的决定系数分别下降了 0.10 和 0.15。应对极端气候影响和农田水利设施建设应考虑适应性解决方案，以应对气候变化，确保粮食安全。

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引用次数: 0

Resilience as a Gateway: Private foundations and the financialization of disaster assistance 韧性作为门户：私人基金会与灾害援助的金融化

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100707

Gaélane Wolff

International aid, including contributions from private foundations, assumes a pivotal role within the neoliberal framework, particularly in its utilization of resilience as a strategy for adapting to disasters exacerbated by climate change. The increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters necessitate innovative responses, and private foundations inhabit a unique space that straddles the realms of the public and private sectors, blurring the lines between them. The discourse surrounding these foundations aligns closely with the concept of resilience, which regards disaster survivors as agents capable of catalyzing their own transformation. The concept of resilience might lead us to believe that non-state actors working on the ground are motivated by a desire to empower individuals in the face of such calamities. Examining the intricate interplay between private foundations, resilience, and the neoliberal system allows for an exploration of how disasters, particularly those driven by climate change, are perceived as opportunities for development within a neoliberal society. This research endeavors to answer the question: How does the instrumentalization of resilience by private foundations contribute to the development of financialization in disaster assistance? To address this inquiry, a discourse analysis of 200 documents from the year 2000 to the present, originating from two private foundations actively involved in disaster assistance, was conducted. Approximately thirty semi-structured interviews complete this analysis. The theoretical framework of this paper is rooted in the critical post-structuralist approach and provides a critical examination of post-humanitarianism within the context of the adaptive conception of resilience within contemporary neoliberal societies.

国际援助，包括来自私人基金会的捐款，在新自由主义框架内扮演着关键角色，特别是在利用复原力作为适应气候变化加剧的灾难的战略方面。气候灾害的发生频率和强度越来越高，需要创新的应对方式，而非公募基金会处于一个独特的空间，它跨越了公共和私营领域，模糊了两者之间的界限。围绕这些基础的论述与复原力的概念密切相关，复原力将灾难幸存者视为能够催化自身转变的代理人。弹性的概念可能会让我们相信，在面对此类灾难时，在实地工作的非国家行为体是出于赋予个人权力的愿望。考察私人基金会、恢复力和新自由主义体系之间错综复杂的相互作用，可以探索灾害，特别是由气候变化驱动的灾害，如何在新自由主义社会中被视为发展的机会。本研究试图回答这样一个问题：私人基金会对复原力的工具化如何促进灾害援助金融化的发展？为了回答这个问题，我们对两个积极参与救灾的私人基金会从2000年到现在的200份文件进行了话语分析。大约30个半结构化访谈完成了这个分析。本文的理论框架植根于批判性的后结构主义方法，并在当代新自由主义社会中适应性弹性概念的背景下对后人道主义进行了批判性的考察。

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引用次数: 0

The role of gender in firm-level climate change adaptation behaviour: Insights from small businesses in Senegal and Kenya 性别在企业层面气候变化适应行为中的作用：来自塞内加尔和肯尼亚小企业的见解

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100699

Kate Elizabeth Gannon , Shaikh M.S.U. Eskander , Antonio Avila-Uribe , Elena Castellano , Mamadou Diop , Dorice Agol

Literature on gender and climate change adaptation tends to propose that women are both especially vulnerable to climate change and especially valuable to climate change adaptation, but these ideas have been little considered in the context of adaptation within small businesses and have rarely been tested through quantitative empirical analysis. This paper responds to this gap within existing literature and explores how female representation in the ownership or management structures of micro and small businesses shapes firm-level adaptive capacity, as implied through adaptation behaviour. Using firm-level survey data from semi-arid regions of Senegal and Kenya, we employ a Poisson regression model to empirically investigate how female representation in ownership and management of micro and small businesses affects adoption of firm-level sustainable and unsustainable adaptation strategies, with increasing exposure to extreme weather events. Our results show that businesses with female leadership that faced a larger number of extreme events adopt more sustainable and fewer unsustainable strategies than those with only male leadership. We interpret this result recognising that unsustainable adaptation strategies, such as selling business assets, require a business to have access to business assets and resources and thus are an outcome of a business’ coping capacity. Consistent with literature, we then identify that adaptation assistance can mitigate some of the harmful effects of climate shocks and additionally support micro and small businesses with female leadership to adopt more adaptation strategies (both sustainable and unsustainable) – and to a greater extent than businesses with only male leadership. Results evidence the value and efficiency of developing an inclusive business enabling environment for adaptation that targets women entrepreneurs, not just for delivering on equitable climate justice agendas, but also for strategic upscaling of resilience.

关于性别与气候变化适应的文献倾向于提出，女性对气候变化特别脆弱，对气候变化适应也特别有价值，但这些观点在小企业适应的背景下很少得到考虑，也很少通过定量实证分析进行检验。本文回应了现有文献中的这一差距，并探讨了女性在微型和小型企业的所有权或管理结构中的代表性如何通过适应行为暗示公司层面的适应能力。利用来自塞内加尔和肯尼亚半干旱地区的企业层面调查数据，我们采用了Poisson回归模型，实证研究了随着极端天气事件的增加，女性在微型和小型企业所有权和管理中的代表性如何影响企业层面采用可持续和不可持续的适应策略。我们的研究结果表明，与只有男性领导的企业相比，女性领导的企业面临更多极端事件，采取的可持续战略更多，不可持续战略更少。我们对这一结果的解释是，不可持续的适应战略，如出售商业资产，要求企业能够获得商业资产和资源，因此是企业应对能力的结果。与文献一致，我们发现适应援助可以减轻气候冲击的一些有害影响，并额外支持女性领导的微型和小型企业采取更多的适应战略（可持续和不可持续）-并且在更大程度上比只有男性领导的企业。研究结果表明，为适应气候变化打造一个以女性企业家为目标的包容性商业环境具有价值和效率，不仅有助于实现公平的气候正义议程，还有助于战略性地提升适应能力。

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引用次数: 0

Gender-group membership intersectionality and determinants of indigenous climate adaptation of smallholder farmers for climate risk management in northern Ghana 加纳北部小农气候风险管理的性别、群体成员、交叉性和土著气候适应的决定因素

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100737

Lawrence Guodaar

This study examined the intersection of gender and group membership as well as the factors influencing indigenous adaptation strategies of male and female smallholder farmers to moderate climate risks for sustainable food security in dryland communities. It used survey data from 299 farming households with 12 focus group discussions across six rural communities in northern Ghana. Household data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a binary logistic regression model. The results reveal that smallholder farmers’ indigenous solutions, such as soil and water management strategies, are gender-differentiated. The most significant indigenous adaptation strategies employed by smallholder farmers include the use of organic manure, rainwater harvesting, and spiritual consultations. From an intersectional perspective, group membership is gendered and facilitates the reduction of climate adaptation costs. Several factors differently shape the indigenous adaptation strategies of male and female smallholder farmers. Generally, age, education, and wealth status influence gender responses to climate change. Specifically male farmers’ indigenous strategies are significantly affected by farm size, whereas female farmers’ practices are mainly shaped by farm experience, farm ownership, and membership in local associations. These findings indicate that social, economic, demographic, and farm-related characteristics are essential for building climate resilience. The findings offer insightful guidance for policymakers and practitioners to develop adaptation plans that are gender-responsive, strengthen farming groups, and enhance adaptive capacity, ultimately promoting resilient and sustainable food systems in dryland indigenous communities.

本研究考察了性别与群体成员关系的交集，以及影响旱地社区男女小农为缓解气候风险、促进可持续粮食安全而采取土著适应策略的因素。它使用了来自加纳北部6个农村社区299个农户的12个焦点小组讨论的调查数据。采用描述性统计和二元logistic回归模型对住户数据进行分析。结果表明，小农的土着解决方案（如水土管理战略）存在性别差异。小农采用的最重要的本土适应策略包括使用有机肥料、雨水收集和精神咨询。从交叉的角度来看，群体成员是性别化的，有助于降低气候适应成本。有几个因素不同地塑造了男性和女性小农的本土适应策略。一般来说，年龄、教育程度和财富状况影响性别对气候变化的反应。具体而言，男性农民的本土策略受农场规模的显著影响，而女性农民的做法主要受农场经验、农场所有权和当地协会成员资格的影响。这些发现表明，社会、经济、人口和农业相关特征对于建设气候适应能力至关重要。研究结果为政策制定者和实践者制定性别敏感的适应计划、加强农业群体和增强适应能力提供了有见地的指导，最终在旱地土著社区促进有抵御力和可持续的粮食系统。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of climate change on household dietary diversity in Afghanistan 气候变化对阿富汗家庭饮食多样性的影响

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100687

Jamshid Yolchi, Huaiyu Wang

Climate change adaptation policies and research have traditionally focused on dietary quantity, neglecting dietary quality, particularly in developing countries like Afghanistan. This study aims to identify how climate change affects household dietary diversity and whether the impacts are consistent across different food groups. To examine the impact of climate change on dietary diversity in Afghanistan, a climate change proxy variable (temperature) was created at the district level by calculating the difference from its long-term mean. Meanwhile, the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) was obtained from three rounds of household survey data conducted between 2011 and 2017, which included information from 60,099 households. Negative binomial regression analysis reveals a positive association between climate change and HDDS. That is, higher temperatures would lead to the higher availability of diverse diets in Afghanistan. Interestingly, climate change appears to affect food groups heterogeneously. While staple food consumption frequency remains unaffected, non-staple food consumption increases with higher temperatures. The results remain consistent after incorporating precipitation and two lagged versions of temperature and precipitation into the model. Therefore, the climate adaptation policies of the government of Afghanistan should consider different policy implications for staple and non-staple foods. These findings have policy implications for achieving food security and climate change-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as SDG 2 (zero hunger) and SDG 13 (climate action).

气候变化适应政策和研究传统上侧重于饮食数量，而忽视了饮食质量，特别是在阿富汗等发展中国家。本研究旨在确定气候变化如何影响家庭饮食多样性，以及这种影响在不同的食物群体中是否一致。为了研究气候变化对阿富汗饮食多样性的影响，通过计算其长期平均值的差异，在地区一级创建了一个气候变化代理变量（温度）。同时，从2011年至2017年进行的三轮家庭调查数据中获得了家庭饮食多样性评分（HDDS），其中包括来自60,099个家庭的信息。负二项回归分析显示气候变化与hds呈正相关。也就是说，更高的温度将导致阿富汗更容易获得多样化的饮食。有趣的是，气候变化对食物群体的影响似乎各不相同。虽然主食的消费频率不受影响，但副食品的消费随着温度的升高而增加。将降水和两个滞后版本的温度和降水纳入模型后，结果保持一致。因此，阿富汗政府的气候适应政策应考虑对主粮和副粮的不同政策影响。这些发现对实现可持续发展目标2（零饥饿）和可持续发展目标13（气候行动）等与粮食安全和气候变化相关的可持续发展目标具有政策意义。

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引用次数: 0

Informing adaptation pathway approaches for vulnerable coastal infrastructure 为沿海脆弱基础设施的适应途径提供信息

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100759

David A. Dawson , Tamsin Mortleman , Angie C. Lamprea-Pineda , David P. Connolly

Hard-engineered defences protect critical coastal infrastructure that, without long-term adaptation planning, will face increased risk of flooding from sea-level rise (SLR). The adaptation pathway (AP) approach has been developed to improve long-term planning for climate change under future uncertainties, however, there remains a lack of asset level examples to inform coastal infrastructure decisions at a sector level. In this paper, a ‘performance-orientated’ AP approach is developed which provides a technique for generating future decision ‘pathways’ for coastal transport infrastructure using open-source data and standard guidance techniques. The application and method are novel because they combine a modified fragility curve approach with climate change projections of sea-level rise and also easily accessible satellite observational data (InSAR) related to local coastal ground movement. Applied to a local railway branch line it is demonstrated, that absent of any adaptation, approximately

83 %

of the assets will fail the set standard of protection (

SoP

) by

2050

. It is also shown that combinations of adaptation options can delay defence protection ‘tipping points’ beyond the study period (

> 2150

). Finally, the use of satellite observations in AP approaches can allow for more detailed and localised information regarding defence failure timings. The ‘performance-orientated’ AP approach can be an insightful tool for strategic planning and policy, and can be achieved without significant organisational capacity.

硬工程防御保护着关键的沿海基础设施，如果没有长期的适应规划，这些基础设施将面临海平面上升（SLR）带来的洪水风险增加。适应路径（AP）方法已经被开发出来，以改善未来不确定性下气候变化的长期规划，然而，仍然缺乏资产层面的例子来为部门层面的沿海基础设施决策提供信息。在本文中，开发了一种“以绩效为导向”的AP方法，该方法提供了一种技术，可以使用开源数据和标准指导技术为沿海运输基础设施生成未来决策“路径”。应用和方法是新颖的，因为它们结合了改进的脆弱性曲线方法与海平面上升的气候变化预测，以及与当地沿海地面运动相关的易于获取的卫星观测数据（InSAR）。应用于某地方铁路支线，结果表明，如果不进行任何调整，到2050年，约83%的资产将达不到设定的保护标准（SoP）。研究还表明，适应选择的组合可以将防御保护的“临界点”推迟到研究期之后（>2150）。最后，在AP方法中使用卫星观测可以获得有关防御故障时间的更详细和更局部的信息。“以绩效为导向”的AP方法可以成为战略规划和政策的深刻工具，并且可以在没有显著组织能力的情况下实现。

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引用次数: 0

Increased risk for damages from the dry-rot fungus Serpula lacrymans on buildings in a changing climate 在气候变化的情况下，干腐菌对建筑物造成损害的风险增加

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100695

Mikael Martinsson , Itai Danielski

Weather-based damages in housing insurance correspond to 23 % of all insurance claims in Sweden and include damages from fungi. Some fungi could cause health risks to the tenants, while others can cause rapid structural failure for the building itself, like the dry-rot fungus Serpula lacrymans.

The study aims to analyse a possible connection between the increased rate of insurance claims related to S. lacrymans fungi and climate change. This study uses historical data of 2446 damaged properties from insurance companies and current and future climate data. In addition, eight geographical areas within Sweden with 567 damaged properties were analysed in relation to changes in outdoor temperature over a decade. Finally, a full onsite inspection of 20 infected properties by S. lacrymans fungi was conducted to evaluate common conditions for fungi infections.

The results of this study showed that the S. lacrymans fungus is expected to spread to the northern parts of Sweden even in areas where it could not exist before, while the rate of infected buildings in the southern part of Sweden might decline but not drop to zero. Wooden buildings older constructed before 1980 with chimneys and self-ventilation are at higher risk of infection. Economic implications are significant, with high repair costs rendering some buildings economically unviable, particularly in rural areas. Insurance reimbursement is typically limited to market value loss, indicating location, design, and maintenance status as crucial factors. The results may raise a concern for insurance companies and property owners, especially related to locations in the sparse parts of North of Sweden.

在瑞典，住房保险中基于天气的损害占所有保险索赔的23%，其中包括真菌造成的损害。一些真菌可能会给租户带来健康风险，而另一些真菌可能会导致建筑物本身的结构迅速破坏，比如干腐真菌Serpula泪人。这项研究的目的是分析与葡萄球菌真菌相关的保险索赔率上升与气候变化之间的可能联系。本研究使用了来自保险公司的2446个受损财产的历史数据以及当前和未来的气候数据。此外，研究人员还分析了瑞典境内8个地理区域的567处受损财产与十年来室外温度变化的关系。最后，对20种被泪泪链球菌感染的真菌进行了全面的现场检查，以评估真菌感染的常见情况。这项研究的结果表明，即使在瑞典北部以前不存在这种真菌的地区，这种真菌也有望传播到瑞典北部，而瑞典南部的建筑物感染率可能会下降，但不会降至零。1980年以前建造的带有烟囱和自通风的旧木结构建筑感染风险较高。经济影响很大，高昂的维修费用使一些建筑物在经济上无法使用，特别是在农村地区。保险补偿通常限于市场价值损失，表明位置、设计和维护状态是关键因素。研究结果可能会引起保险公司和财产所有者的关注，尤其是与瑞典北部稀疏地区有关的地区。

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引用次数: 0

The role of local knowledge in enhancing climate change risk assessments in rural Northern Ireland 地方知识在加强北爱尔兰农村气候变化风险评估中的作用

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100702

Alan T. Kennedy-Asser , Oliver D. Andrews , Jill Montgomery , Katie L. Jenkins , Ben A.H. Smith , Elizabeth Lewis , Stephen J. Birkinshaw , Helen He , Richard F. Pywell , Matt J. Brown , John W. Redhead , Rachel Warren , Craig Robson , Adam J.P. Smith , Robert J. Nicholls , Donal Mullan , Ryan McGuire

Climate risk modelling provides valuable quantitative data on potential risks at different spatiotemporal scales, but it is essential that these models are evaluated appropriately. In some cases, it may be useful to merge quantitative datasets with qualitative data and local knowledge, to better inform and evaluate climate risk assessments. This interdisciplinary study maps climatic risks relating to health and agriculture that are facing rural Northern Ireland. A large range of quantitative national climate risk modelling results from the OpenCLIM project are scrutinised using local qualitative insights identified during workshops and interviews with farmers and rural care providers. In some cases, the qualitative local knowledge supported the quantitative modelling results, such as (1) highlighting that heat risk can be an issue for health in rural areas as well as urban centres, and (2) precipitation is changing, with increased variability posing challenges to agriculture. In other cases, the local knowledge challenged the national quantitative results. For example, models suggested that (1) potential heat stress impacts will be low, and (2) grass growing conditions will be more favourable, with higher yields as a result of future climatic conditions. In both cases, local knowledge challenged these conclusions, with discomfort and workplace heat stress reported by care staff and recent experience of variable weather having significant impacts on grass growth on farms across the country. Hence, merging even a small amount of qualitative local knowledge with quantitative national modelling projects results in a more holistic understanding of the local climate risk.

气候风险模型为不同时空尺度上的潜在风险提供了宝贵的定量数据，但对这些模型进行适当评估至关重要。在某些情况下，将定量数据集与定性数据和当地知识结合起来可能是有用的，以便更好地为气候风险评估提供信息和评估。这项跨学科研究绘制了北爱尔兰农村面临的与健康和农业有关的气候风险。OpenCLIM项目的大量定量国家气候风险建模结果是通过研讨会和对农民和农村护理提供者的访谈中确定的当地定性见解进行仔细审查的。在某些情况下，定性的当地知识支持了定量的建模结果，例如(1)强调高温风险对农村地区和城市中心的健康都是一个问题；(2)降水正在发生变化，变异性的增加对农业构成挑战。在其他情况下，地方知识挑战了国家定量结果。例如，模型表明：(1)潜在的热胁迫影响将很低，(2)由于未来的气候条件，草的生长条件将更加有利，产量将更高。在这两种情况下，当地的知识挑战了这些结论，护理人员报告的不适和工作场所热应激以及最近的变化天气对全国各地农场的草生长产生了重大影响。因此，即使将少量定性的地方知识与定量的国家建模项目结合起来，也会对当地气候风险有更全面的了解。

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引用次数: 0