Climate Risk Management最新文献

Adaptation to ever intensifying climate change is of paramount importance to reduce its impacts, in particular for those at the frontlines of climate change such as the Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS). However, a range of constraints make it harder to plan and implement adaptation and thus hinder adaptation progress. Here, we provide an assessment on regional perceptions of adaptation constraints and avenues to overcome them based on a mixed-method approach, combining an online survey and semi-structured interviews with adaptation experts from Caribbean SIDS. We find that finance is the largest constraint being faced which closely interacts with information, human capacity and governance constraints throughout the entire adaptation process. Such interacting constraints can lead to vicious cycles profoundly hindering adaptation and therefore need to be addressed in parallel. Our results highlight how adaptation actors at the national level, in particular national governments, have a key role to play when overcoming constraints for the implementation of adaptation projects at the local level, alongside regional and international organisations.

The Cotabato River Basin, located on the island of Mindanao in the Philippines, holds paramount importance for local communities and the national economy. However, over the past few decades, the region has been severely affected by the consequences of climate change, such as flooding and drought, along with long-standing socio-political conflicts that threaten livelihood security. This article analyzes the interplay between livelihood security, climate fragility, and state fragility to foster a more meaningful understanding of the impacts arising from historical fragilities and conflicts. The study findings reveal five significant effects of these fragilities on security: persistent flooding, changes in land use, river siltation, drought impact, and uncertainties stemming from violent conflicts. Through a detailed analysis, the article elucidates how the frequent exposure to these events has compelled communities to adapt by perceiving threats to their livelihoods as uncontrollable, thereby normalizing fragilities as an inherent aspect of everyday life. The study underscores the importance of temporal awareness and cultural understanding to comprehend the complexities of fragilities and conflicts. Integrating such awareness and experience makes refining approaches to strengthen livelihoods and mitigate community vulnerabilities possible.

Rising air temperatures are the main reason for the expected reduction in land suitability for coffee cultivation under climate change in Central America. One of the reasons farmers use shade trees is to create a cooler microclimate in coffee plantations located in warming areas; therefore, adjusting the shade levels could alleviate future high temperatures. Even though data on expected climatic changes are available, no studies have addressed the cooling potential of shading in coffee production systems. In this study, we use regional climate information (RCP 4.5) and a simple shade model to explore the potential of shading as an adaptation practice in the coffee areas in Central America. A model was developed to estimate the required shade levels for Coffea arabica L. based on mean air temperature. Modeled and observed shade data were compared. Results indicate that compared to 2000, an overall increment of 23 ± 18% of shading would be required to alleviate the warming conditions by 2050. The shading will be more beneficial to coffee areas at medium and high altitudes than to areas at low ones. Also, the number of coffee areas that require dense shade levels (shading > 60%) may double by 2050. This would lead to a boost in tree biomass (carbon content) but also increase the competition for the coffee plants and consequently affect coffee yields. Trade-offs between adaptation, mitigation, and productivity objectives are expected in the coffee areas in the future.

Climate-related disasters are increasing in many parts of the world, yet investment in disaster risk reduction (DRR) remains insufficient to manage these risks. This is despite growing recognition that DRR interventions can reduce potential impacts from disasters as well as deliver broader economic, ecological, and social co-benefits. Focusing on the net benefits of DRR, beyond avoiding losses and damages, is considered as an important strategy to strengthen the case for DRR as part of a sustainable development by academics and international organizations alike. However, there is very limited evidence of on-the-ground accounting of these “multiple resilience dividends” by those who act to reduce disaster risk at the local level. Using an innovative analytical approach, we investigate the knowledge gaps and challenges associated with considering multiple resilience dividends in the planning, implementation, and evaluation of DRR interventions at the community level for the example of flood risk. We use a newly developed framework to analyze empirical survey data on community-level DRR interventions as well as five in-depth case studies from Vietnam, Nepal, Indonesia, Afghanistan, and the United Kingdom. The analysis reveals a disconnect between available planning tools and the evidence of materialized multiple resilience dividends, which is a key obstacle to successfully apply the concept at the community level. Structured consideration of multiple resilience dividends from the planning to the monitoring and evaluation stages is required to secure local buy-in and to ensure that these dividends materialize as intended.