Coastal wetlands face severe degradation, especially in developing deltas where economic growth conflicts with conservation. This study addresses two critical gaps: oversimplified resistance models and limited dynamic connectivity assessments under combined natural-human pressures and makes two key advances: (1) an innovative “landscape-vegetation-soil” framework integrating multi-source data to model Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) and construct refined resistance surfaces; (2) multi-temporal ecological networks using Minimal Cumulative Resistance (MCR) and gravity models to quantify connectivity dynamics in China's Yellow River Delta. Results reveal a “core degradation-peripheral shrinkage” pattern in the ecological network, driven by intensive urbanization and aquaculture expansion. While most counties exhibited a post-2010 recovery trend in HSI, Hekou District diverged with persistent degradation. Crucially, vegetation vitality emerged as the dominant driver of ecosystem resilience, supported by an obvious NPP (net primary production)-SOC (soil organic carbon) feedback mechanism that underscores the pivotal role of vegetation restoration. Methodologically, we advance ecological network analysis through HSI modeling integrating remote sensing and field-validated data and dynamic resistance surface construction capturing 30-year anthropogenic impacts. We propose a three-tiered strategy prioritizing: (1) Core sources protection; (2) Critical corridors rehabilitation; (3) Multi-scale governance integrating county-specific policies. This study provides both theoretical foundations for deltaic ecosystem management and practical tools for coastal conservation, with global applications for vulnerable land-sea interfaces. The integrated framework offers novel solutions for balancing ecological integrity with socioeconomic needs in rapidly developing deltas.
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