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Long-term changes of agricultural land over the last century in Romania. The showcase of Romanian plain 上世纪罗马尼亚农业用地的长期变化。罗马尼亚平原的展示
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100449
Elena-Ana Urşanu (Popovici) , Ines Grigorescu , Cristina Dumitrică , Gheorghe Kucsicsa , Bianca Mitrică , Irena Roznovietchi (Mocanu) , Monica Dumitraşcu , Cătălin Ciubuc

The current paper is a space-time analysis of agricultural land transitions in the Romanian Plain, which has been significantly impacted during the past century by the fundamental structural and functional transformations. Five maps, derived from historical cartographic materials and the recent CORINE Land Cover databases, were spatially analysed using a transition matrix procedure. The aim was to identify and measure the magnitude of the main land use/cover change flows related to agricultural lands. Furthermore, several underlying factors of the spatial and functional transformations have been discussed so as to understand the evolution of the historical agricultural lands over time. The results show that the most significant changes occurred between 1912 and 1970, when 38 % of the Romanian Plain’s surface underwent transformations, with notable regional differences. The analysis of the change flows in relation to the underlying factors was instrumental in explaining the land processes, an approach that can be used to understand future landscape transformations.

本文对罗马尼亚平原的农业用地过渡情况进行了时空分析,该地区在上个世纪受到了结构和功能转型的重大影响。利用过渡矩阵程序对从历史制图资料和最新 CORINE 土地覆被数据库中提取的五幅地图进行了空间分析。目的是确定和测量与农业用地相关的主要土地利用/覆盖变化流的规模。此外,还讨论了空间和功能变化的几个基本因素,以了解历史上农用地随时间的演变情况。研究结果表明,1912 年至 1970 年间的变化最为显著,当时罗马尼亚平原 38% 的地表发生了变化,但地区差异明显。分析变化流与基本因素的关系有助于解释土地进程,这种方法可用于了解未来的地貌变化。
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引用次数: 0
The environmental consequences of rapid urbanization in central Florida reconstructed with high resolution 241Am and 210Pb dating in lake sediments 利用湖泊沉积物中高分辨率 241Am 和 210Pb 测年重建佛罗里达中部快速城市化的环境后果
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100452
Paul W. Volante , James M. Kaste , Troy Clift , Matthew N. Waters
Throughout the 20th century, Florida was one of the fastest growing states in the US, putting unique environmental stress on the region. Accurately dated lake sediments can provide invaluable records of environmental change that extend beyond monitoring records. Here, we analyze profiles of americium-241 (241Am), cesium-137 (137Cs), lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), and uranium-series radionuclides in Lake Bonny in Lakeland, Florida. The 241Am peak is sharp in the sediment profile, while the 137Cs peak is broader and spread evenly across two layers. The measured 137Cs inventory of ∼413 Bq/m2 is less than half of the expected inventory from atmospheric deposition (accounting for decay since deposition), indicating significant losses. The reliability of 137Cs as a chronological tool can be complicated in environments with low quantities of 2:1 clays and low available potassium (K), characteristic of Florida and the U.S. southeast. Using a piecewise constant rate of supply 210Pb model verified by 241Am, we reconstruct sedimentation and chemical change in this lake. Highest sedimentation rates in the lake occur during decades of peak population growth in the mid-20th century. Uranium (U) and radium-226 (226Ra) inputs to the lake reach a maximum in the 1960s, consistent with expansion of local phosphate mines and elevated groundwater pumping during that time in response to drought conditions. Total Pb in the sedimentary record captures the rise and fall of the use of leaded gasoline, but Zn inputs to the lake remain nearly two orders of magnitude above background levels in the last decade. Our high-resolution chronology of the lake reveals regional impacts on water and lake quality in central Florida during a period of rapid population growth.
在整个 20 世纪,佛罗里达州是美国发展最快的州之一,给该地区带来了独特的环境压力。精确测定日期的湖泊沉积物可以提供超越监测记录的宝贵环境变化记录。在这里,我们分析了佛罗里达州莱克兰市邦尼湖中镅-241 (241Am)、铯-137 (137Cs)、铅 (Pb)、锌 (Zn) 和铀系列放射性核素的剖面图。在沉积物剖面中,241Am 的峰值比较尖锐,而 137Cs 的峰值则比较宽泛,均匀地分布在两层沉积物中。测得的 137Cs 库存量为 ∼413 Bq/m2,不到大气沉积物预期库存量的一半(考虑到沉积后的衰变),这表明 137Cs 的损失很大。在佛罗里达州和美国东南部特有的 2:1 粘土和可用钾(K)含量较低的环境中,137Cs 作为年代学工具的可靠性可能会变得复杂。我们利用经 241Am 验证的片状恒定 210Pb 供应率模型,重建了该湖泊的沉积和化学变化。该湖最高的沉积速率出现在 20 世纪中期人口增长高峰的几十年中。湖中铀(U)和镭-226(226Ra)的输入量在 20 世纪 60 年代达到最大值,这与当地磷矿的扩张以及当时为应对干旱条件而增加地下水抽取量是一致的。沉积记录中的总铅捕捉到了含铅汽油使用量的上升和下降,但在过去十年中,湖泊中的锌输入量仍比背景水平高出近两个数量级。我们的高分辨率湖泊年代学揭示了人口快速增长时期佛罗里达州中部地区对水质和湖泊质量的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Toxicogenomics of persistent organic pollutants: Potential impacts on biodiversity and infectious diseases 持久性有机污染物的毒物基因组学:对生物多样性和传染病的潜在影响
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100450
Marina Ziliotto , José Artur Bogo Chies , Joel Henrique Ellwanger
Pollution is recognized as one of the main causes of biodiversity loss. Growing evidence also points to pollution as an important risk factor for the emergence or reemergence of infectious diseases that affect humans and other animals. However, the mechanisms and pathways that explain how pollution erodes biodiversity and favors infectious diseases are poorly explored. Using the Dirty Dozen (aldrin, chlordane, dichlorodiphenyl trichloroethane - DDT, dieldrin, dioxins, endrin, furans, heptachlor, hexachlorobenzene, mirex, polychlorinated biphenyls - PCBs, and toxaphene) persistent organic pollutants (POPs) as a study model, in this article we demonstrate through toxicogenomic approaches that these POPs affect thousands of genes involved in the immune system and metabolic processes, among other biological pathways (n=19,086 genes from multiple organisms). One of the major findings indicate that POPs interact with hormone receptor genes prominently (i.e., Esr1, Nr1i2 and Ar genes). This finding highlights the activity of these pollutants as hormonal disruptors, with potentially deleterious consequences for the metabolism and reproduction of a wide range of species. These pollutants also have an important genotoxic activity, contributing to genomic instability and other related consequences. In summary, disturbances in the immune system can favor infection and the spread of pathogens, and changes in metabolism and genotoxic effects triggered by pollutants in multiple body systems can reduce fitness, harming the species’ survival in natural environments. The results of this exploratory toxicogenomic analysis represent a new piece in the puzzle that increasingly points to pollution as a major risk factor for both biodiversity loss and emerging infectious diseases.
污染被认为是生物多样性丧失的主要原因之一。越来越多的证据也表明,污染是影响人类和其他动物的传染病出现或再次出现的重要风险因素。然而,人们对污染如何侵蚀生物多样性和助长传染病发生的机制和途径还缺乏深入研究。以 Dirty Dozen(艾氏剂、氯丹、二氯二苯三氯乙烷--滴滴涕、狄氏剂、二恶英、异狄氏剂、呋喃、七氯、六氯苯、灭蚁灵、多氯联苯--多氯联苯和毒杀芬)持久性有机污染物(POPs)为研究模型、在这篇文章中,我们通过毒物基因组学方法证明,这些持久性有机污染物会影响涉及免疫系统和新陈代谢过程以及其他生物途径的数千个基因(来自多种生物的 19,086 个基因)。其中一项主要发现表明,持久性有机污染物与激素受体基因(即 Esr1、Nr1i2 和 Ar 基因)的相互作用十分显著。这一发现凸显了这些污染物作为荷尔蒙干扰物的活性,可能对多种生物的新陈代谢和繁殖产生有害影响。这些污染物还具有重要的基因毒性,导致基因组不稳定和其他相关后果。总之,免疫系统的紊乱会有利于感染和病原体的传播,而污染物在多个身体系统中引发的新陈代谢变化和基因毒性效应会降低适应能力,损害物种在自然环境中的生存。这项探索性毒物基因组分析的结果代表了一个新的谜题,即污染日益成为生物多样性丧失和新发传染病的一个主要风险因素。
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引用次数: 0
20th century climate warming and human disturbance triggered high aquatic production and strong water-column mixing in maar Lake Xiaolongwan, northeastern China 20 世纪气候变暖和人为干扰引发中国东北小龙湾湖水产高产和水柱强烈混合
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100442
Luyao Tu , Hongpan Xue , Xin Zhou , Xuanqiao Liu , Paul D. Zander , Tao Huang , Lize Meng , Wangyang Kan , Changchun Huang , Martin Grosjean

Lake ecosystems in northeastern (NE) China are sensitive to global environmental change, and are currently under threats of eutrophication and hypolimnetic anoxia. However, the lack of long-term records of lake production and anoxia in this region makes it difficult to discriminate the impacts of recent anthropogenic activity on lake ecosystems from natural ecosystem variability. This study investigates varved sediments from remote maar Lake Xiaolongwan, NE China and reconstructs high-resolution changes in lake primary production, anoxia, nutrient cycling and catchment processes over the past 1500 years using hyperspectral imaging inferred sedimentary total chlorophyll-a and bacteriopheophytin-a (Bphe-a), combined with sedimentary iron and phosphorus fractions data. Results show that, prior to discernible human impacts in this area from ∼600 CE to 1900 CE, lake primary production was higher during warm periods and reduced during cold periods. Bphe-a records show that hypolimnetic anoxia persisted regardless of temperature variability. Cluster analysis suggests that lake algal communities and biogeochemical conditions in the twentieth-century warm period are unprecedented and significantly different from any other time over the past 1500 years. This phenomenon mostly results from global warming and stronger local catchment disturbance in the early 1900s, combined with atmospheric pollution after the 1950s. Human-driven climate warming has caused stronger seasonal mixing (due to shortened ice-cover duration) and overall better oxygenation in the lake. This study demonstrates clear anthropogenic impacts to lake ecosytems in a relatively pristine region in NE China. We anticipate that our findings will have implications for understanding the status of aquatic ecosystems in NE China under future interacting stressors of anthropogenic climate warming and pollution.

中国东北地区的湖泊生态系统对全球环境变化非常敏感,目前正受到富营养化和低渗缺氧的威胁。然而,该地区缺乏湖泊生成和缺氧的长期记录,因此很难区分近期人为活动对湖泊生态系统和自然生态系统变异的影响。本研究调查了中国东北偏远地区小龙湾湖的变质沉积物,并利用高光谱成像推断沉积物总叶绿素-a和细菌叶绿素-a(Bphe-a),结合沉积物铁和磷组分数据,重建了过去1500年间湖泊初级生产、缺氧、营养循环和集水过程的高分辨率变化。结果表明,在公元前 600 年至公元前 1900 年这一地区受到明显的人类影响之前,温暖时期的湖泊初级生产力较高,而寒冷时期则较低。Bphe-a记录显示,无论温度如何变化,下沉缺氧现象一直存在。聚类分析表明,20 世纪温暖时期的湖泊藻类群落和生物地球化学条件是前所未有的,与过去 1500 年的任何其他时期都有显著不同。这一现象主要源于 20 世纪初的全球变暖和更强的局部流域扰动,以及 20 世纪 50 年代后的大气污染。人类驱动的气候变暖造成了更强的季节性混合(由于冰盖持续时间缩短)和湖泊整体含氧量的提高。这项研究表明,在中国东北一个相对原始的地区,人为因素对湖泊生态系统产生了明显的影响。我们预计,我们的研究结果将对了解中国东北地区水生生态系统在未来人为气候变暖和污染等相互作用的压力下的状况产生影响。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of repeated drawdown flushing on riverbed fine sediment dynamics downstream from a dam 反复缩减冲刷对大坝下游河床细沙动力学的影响
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100444
Théo Bulteau , Baptiste Marteau , Ramon J. Batalla , Emmanuel Chapron , Philippe Valette , Hervé Piégay

Sediment accumulation in reservoirs is frequently a problem, impelling dam managers to implement strategies such as drawdown flushing to limit siltation. Drawdown and other sediment removal methods may induce riverbed clogging downstream of dams, especially in river sections where water is diverted, thereby reducing transport capacity. In this study, we investigate the effects of drawdown flushing downstream of the Plan d’Arem run-of-the-river dam (Upper Garonne, Spain – France border) using an adaptive inter-site comparison strategy to consider a range of spatial and temporal conditions, which allow us to separate the effects of dam storage and flushing from other potential factors. Drawdown flushing has been undertaken three times during the study period over a short span of time (2 months). We couple bed material sampling, which provides direct information on bed composition, with airborne infrared thermal imaging to better interpret whether fine sediment interstitial storage within the bed is associated with clogging. We also measure bed surface grain size and bed mobility in order to investigate their potential role in controlling fine sediment dynamics. We identify surface grain size and water diversion as the main factors controlling fine sediment spatial distribution, with coarse-grained bed-surfaces and by-passing promoting fine sediment enrichment. As a result, sites located upstream and within the by-passed reached of the Plan d’Arem dam show higher fine sediment interstitial storage than sites downstream from the by-passed reach. Results from thermal imagery demonstrate such interstitial storage does not induce clogging effect. The reaches with the most important sediment storage host a high number of cool-water patches, indicating water exchanges with the hyporheic zone. Post-flushing bed composition indicates systematic export of fine sediments from the bed matrix at all sites after the first operation, afterwards fine levels remain low after the second and the third flushing. The low impact of dam flushing in term of clogging is interpreted by the fact that the interstitial material is very sandy.

水库中的泥沙淤积经常成为一个问题,迫使大坝管理者采取缩减冲刷等策略来限制泥沙淤积。缩编和其他泥沙清理方法可能会导致大坝下游河床堵塞,尤其是在水流被分流的河段,从而降低运输能力。在本研究中,我们采用适应性现场间比较策略,对 Plan d'Arem(西班牙与法国交界处的上加龙河)河道大坝下游的缩减冲刷效果进行了调查,以考虑一系列空间和时间条件,从而将大坝蓄水和冲刷的效果与其他潜在因素区分开来。在研究期间,我们在短时间内(2 个月)进行了三次缩减冲刷。我们将提供河床组成直接信息的河床材料取样与机载红外热成像相结合,以更好地解释河床内细小沉积物的间隙存储是否与堵塞有关。我们还测量了床面粒度和床面流动性,以研究它们在控制细沉积物动力学方面的潜在作用。我们发现,表层粒度和水流分流是控制细小沉积物空间分布的主要因素,而粗粒床面和旁通则会促进细小沉积物的富集。因此,位于 Plan d'Arem 大坝上游和旁通河段内的地点比旁通河段下游的地点显示出更高的细沉积物间隙储量。热成像结果表明,这种间隙储存不会产生堵塞效应。沉积物储量最大的河段有大量的冷水斑块,这表明河水与下垫面有交换。冲淤后的河床组成表明,在第一次冲淤后,所有地点的河床基质都系统地输出了细小沉积物,而在第二次和第三次冲淤后,细小沉积物的含量仍然很低。坝体冲洗对堵塞的影响较小,这是因为坝体间隙物质为砂质。
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引用次数: 0
Ecosystem based approach to assess the impact of invasive or expanding species in the lower Saône River 以生态系统为基础评估索恩河下游入侵或扩张物种的影响
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100446
T. Changeux , A. Dragotta , E. Franquet , N. Stolzenberg , J.F. Fruget , L. Marion , C. Souty-Grosset , O. Anneville , L. Cavalli , J.P. Faure , N. Corget , F. Josserand , D. Bănaru

The spread of invasive alien species is identified as one of the most important threats to freshwater ecosystems as they can modify their trophic structure, biomass and flows. The lower Saône River is one of the most biologically productive waterways in France. It has been in strong interaction with a wide range of human activities such as fisheries for at least three millennia. To implement an ecosystem based approach, an Ecopath static trophic model was used for the first time in this river to quantify the role of three invasive or expanding species over two contrasted periods (1988–1993 and 1994–2005). The parameters used in the model integrate on the one hand catch data from fishers (professional, amateur fishing gear users, and anglers), and on the other hand the available literature data on species biomass, diet and the expert assessments of scientists and managers. Species such as the filtering Asian clam Corbicula fluminea may explain the triggering of the ecosystem shift towards a functioning where summer phytoplankton blooms are rarer. In the high trophic levels, the great cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo appears to have low trophic impact while the development of a large population of European catfish Silurus glanis has a strong effect, maintaining important trophic flows in the ecosystem in substitution for the decrease in angling landings.

外来入侵物种的传播被认为是淡水生态系统面临的最重要威胁之一,因为它们会改变淡水生态系统的营养结构、生物量和水流。索恩河下游是法国生物产量最高的水道之一。至少三千年来,它一直与渔业等各种人类活动密切相关。为了采用基于生态系统的方法,我们首次在这条河流中使用了 Ecopath 静态营养模型,以量化三个入侵或扩张物种在两个不同时期(1988-1993 年和 1994-2005 年)所起的作用。模型中使用的参数一方面综合了渔民(专业渔民、业余渔具使用者和垂钓者)的渔获量数据,另一方面综合了关于物种生物量、食性的现有文献数据以及科学家和管理人员的专家评估。滤食性亚洲蛤蜊(Corbicula fluminea)等物种可能是引发生态系统向夏季浮游植物较少繁殖的功能转变的原因。在高营养级中,大鸬鹚的营养影响似乎较小,而欧洲鲶鱼(Silurus glanis)的大量繁殖则产生了强大的影响,维持了生态系统中重要的营养流,替代了垂钓上岸量的减少。
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引用次数: 0
Nature-based solutions for urban challenges 以自然为基础解决城市挑战
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100443
Zahra Kalantari , Haozhi Pan , Lenka Slavikova , Georgia Destouni , Carla Sofia Santos Ferreira
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引用次数: 0
Divergent sensitivity of primary producers and benthic invertebrates to hydrological alteration in floodplain lakes 洪泛平原湖泊中初级生产者和底栖无脊椎动物对水文变化的不同敏感性
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100441
Linghan Zeng , Stefan Engels , Yanmin Cao , Xianyu Huang , Xu Chen

Floodplain lake ecosystems are hydrologically dynamic and biologically important. Their ecosystem functioning is complex due to the concurrent influence of multiple anthropogenic stressors. Paleolimnological studies focused on a single biotic proxy might lead to biased results, as multiple trophic levels may show different responses to the same driver. In this study, multiple proxies including chlorophyll and carotenoid pigments (indicators of phytoplankton) and chironomids (indicators of invertebrates) were analyzed in a 210Pb dated sediment core from Luhu Lake (Yangtze floodplain, China). Using these indicators, we investigated how different trophic levels respond to external driving forces (i.e., hydrological alteration represented by K/Al ratios and nutrient influxes indicated by TP) in floodplain lakes. Sedimentary pigments showed that algal production increased in Luhu Lake after the 2000s. The chironomid community shifted from a fauna dominated by Microchironomus tener-type to an assemblage characterized by macrophyte-dwelling taxa (e.g., Tanytarsus, Paratanytarsus, Paratanytarsus penicillatus-type) after the 1970s. Finally, nutrient-tolerant taxa (e.g., Microchironomus tabarui-type) increased in abundance after the 1990s. Redundancy analysis and hierarchical partitioning analysis showed that the increases in algal production were mainly correlated with anthropogenic nutrient influxes, followed by hydrological alteration. In contrast, the transition in the chironomid communities were mainly associated with hydrological alteration, followed by food sources. Our study revealed asynchronous responses of phototrophs and benthic invertebrates to hydrological alteration, highlighting the necessity of analyzing multiple trophic levels to obtain a sophisticate understanding of long-term ecosystem evolution in lotic floodplain lakes which are influenced by multiple stressors. These findings will provide valuable information for the sustainable development, as well as the conservation and restoration of floodplain lakes.

洪泛平原湖泊生态系统具有水文动态和生物重要性。由于同时受到多种人为压力因素的影响,它们的生态系统功能非常复杂。侧重于单一生物代用指标的古气候学研究可能会导致结果偏差,因为多个营养级可能会对同一驱动因素表现出不同的反应。本研究分析了泸沽湖(中国长江洪积平原)210Pb年代沉积物岩芯中的多种代用指标,包括叶绿素和类胡萝卜素色素(浮游植物的指标)以及摇蚊(无脊椎动物的指标)。利用这些指标,我们研究了洪泛平原湖泊中不同营养级如何对外部驱动力(即以 K/Al 比值表示的水文变化和以 TP 表示的营养涌入)做出响应。沉积色素显示,麓湖的藻类产量在 2000 年代后有所增加。摇蚊群落在 20 世纪 70 年代后从以 Tener 型摇蚊为主的动物群落转变为以大型底栖生物(如 Tanytarsus、Paratanytarsus、Paratanytarsus penicillatus-type)为主的群落。最后,耐营养盐类群(例如,Microchironomus tabarui-type)在 20 世纪 90 年代后数量增加。冗余分析和层次分区分析表明,藻类产量的增加主要与人为营养物质流入有关,其次是水文变化。相比之下,摇蚊群落的变化主要与水文变化有关,其次是食物来源。我们的研究揭示了光营养体和底栖无脊椎动物对水文变化的不同步响应,突出了分析多营养级的必要性,从而对受多种压力影响的洪泛平原湖泊生态系统的长期演变有了更深入的了解。这些发现将为洪泛平原湖泊的可持续发展、保护和恢复提供有价值的信息。
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引用次数: 0
Projected navigability of Arctic shipping routes based on climate model FIO-ESM v2.1 根据气候模型 FIO-ESM v2.1 预测的北极航道通航能力
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100445
Shuying Wang , Fangjie Yu , Chao Min , Yan He , Rongrong Pan , Qi Shu

As Arctic sea ice has rapidly declined, the navigational potential of the Arctic routes has greatly increased. Based on sea ice output from the First Institute Of Oceanography-Earth System Model version 2.1 (FIO-ESM v2.1) and the Arctic Transport Accessibility Model, this study investigates the future navigability of the Arctic routes for open-water ships (OW) without icebreaking capabilities and ships with different icebreaking capabilities, namely Polar Class 7 (PC7), Polar Class 6 (PC6), and Polar Class 3 (PC3). The results show that the simulations of FIO-ESM v2.1 adequately reproduce the changes in the navigability of the four types of ships in Arctic shipping routes over the past 40 years. The navigable area for the four ship types is projected to continue to expand in the future. Under the high emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5–8.5, SSP585), the four ship types are projected to achieve full Arctic navigability in summer (September) by the end of the 21st century, and PC6 and PC3 ships are projected to achieve full Arctic navigability in winter (March). Under the high emission scenario, year-round navigability in the Northwest Passage is projected for PC3 and PC6 ships, and in the Northeast Passage is projected for all four types of ships. The impact of emission scenario on the navigability of the Arctic shipping routes varies with different ship types: the largest impact is for OW ships, followed by PC6 and PC7 ships, and the smallest impact is for PC3 ships. The impact of scenario is also larger in winter than in summer.

随着北极海冰的迅速减少,北极航线的通航潜力大大增加。本研究基于第一海洋研究所-地球系统模型 2.1 版(FIO-ESM v2.1)的海冰输出和北极运输可达性模型,研究了不具备破冰能力的开阔水域船舶(OW)和具备不同破冰能力的船舶(即极地 7 级(PC7)、极地 6 级(PC6)和极地 3 级(PC3))未来在北极航线上的通航能力。结果表明,FIO-ESM v2.1 的模拟充分再现了过去 40 年来四类船舶在北极航道上的通航能力变化。预计未来四种类型船舶的通航区域将继续扩大。在高排放情景下(共享社会经济路径 5-8.5,SSP585),预计到 21 世纪末,四种类型的船舶将在夏季(9 月)实现完全北极通航,PC6 和 PC3 船舶将在冬季(3 月)实现完全北极通航。在高排放情景下,预计 PC3 和 PC6 船舶在西北航道全年通航,所有四种类型船舶在东北航道全年通航。排放情景对北极航道通航性的影响因船舶类型而异:影响最大的是 OW 型船舶,其次是 PC6 和 PC7 型船舶,影响最小的是 PC3 型船舶。排放情景在冬季的影响也大于夏季。
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引用次数: 0
Differential impact of climate and land use change on habitat suitability of migrant passerines according to habitat preferences 根据栖息地偏好,气候和土地利用变化对候鸟栖息地适宜性的不同影响
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100447
Theano Koufaki , Christos Barboutis , Konstantinos Theodorou

Our study contributes to the ongoing dialogue on the impact of climate and habitat changes on migratory bird species, particularly focusing on how these effects vary based on species’ habitat preferences. We used citizen science data for 22 African-Eurasian migratory bird species and categorized them into five groups based on habitat preferences, following the classification methodology of Atkinson et al. (2014). Using ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM), we projected changes in potentially suitable habitats across Africa from 2040 to 2100 under contrasting climate and land use scenarios. Our results indicate a differential impact of climate and land use changes on habitat suitability, with species preferring habitats with shrubs and trees being the most vulnerable. Conversely, other group species, such as open country-grassland and farmland birds could experience a significant increase in suitable habitat. We anticipate a profound change in habitat suitability, with the western part of South Africa becoming unsuitable for most species, while an increase in suitable habitat is expected in the Sahel. Bioclimatic rather than land use variables emerged as the primary drivers of these changes. The extent of change in habitat suitability will be strongly influenced by the Shared Socio-economic Pathways followed by human societies.

我们的研究为正在进行的关于气候和栖息地变化对候鸟物种的影响的对话做出了贡献,特别是侧重于这些影响如何根据物种的栖息地偏好而变化。我们使用了 22 种非洲-欧亚候鸟的公民科学数据,并按照阿特金森等人(2014 年)的分类方法,根据栖息地偏好将它们分为五组。利用集合物种分布模型(SDM),我们预测了在不同的气候和土地利用情景下,2040 年至 2100 年整个非洲潜在适宜栖息地的变化。我们的结果表明,气候和土地利用变化对栖息地适宜性的影响各不相同,喜欢灌木和乔木栖息地的物种最容易受到影响。相反,其他类群的物种,如开阔的乡村草原鸟类和农田鸟类的适宜栖息地可能会显著增加。我们预计,栖息地的适宜性将发生深刻变化,南非西部将变得不适合大多数物种,而萨赫勒地区的适宜栖息地则会增加。这些变化的主要驱动因素是生物气候变量而非土地利用变量。栖息地适宜性的变化程度将受到人类社会所遵循的共同社会经济路径的强烈影响。
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Anthropocene
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