This study aims to precisely predict the onset of fracture during the single-point incremental forming (SPIF) of extra deep drawing (EDD) steel sheets using the Bao–Wierzbicki (BW) ductile damage model, incorporating anisotropy of the sheet metal in the analytical formulation. In this regard, a fresh attempt was made to optimize the theoretical BW fracture locus by optimizing the central hole (CH) fracture specimen geometry. Subsequently, four different CH specimens, namely CHD0, CHD2.5, CHD5, and CHD6, were considered by varying the hole-to-ligament width ratios within a range of 0-0.3. The CH specimen geometry was optimized by comparing the evolution of effective plastic strain with respect to stress triaxiality (left(eta right)) and the Lode angle parameter (left(theta right)). It was found that the CHD5 specimen experienced a purely uniaxial stress state with a (eta) and (theta) value almost equal to 0.33 and 1.0, respectively. Afterward, the BW damage model was calibrated using the four CH specimens, and different fracture loci were generated. Subsequently, the analytical fracture curves were validated with the safe and failed experimental strain data obtained through the SPIF of variable wall angle cone (VWAC) and variable wall angle pyramid (VWAP) cups. It was observed that the fracture locus obtained using CHD5 geometry accurately predicted the onset of fracture for SPIF cups. Further, the four distinct fracture loci were integrated separately into the finite element (FE) simulation of the SPIF process linked with the Hill48 anisotropic material model to estimate the formability. The error in dome height prediction was observed as 6.97% and 6.35% for VWAC and VWAP cups, respectively. It was concluded that the BW fracture locus calibrated using the CHD5 geometry was the optimized fracture locus. Furthermore, the surface strain distribution was predicted, incorporating the best-predicted BW fracture locus into the FE simulation. A decent agreement was observed between FE and experimental values.
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