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Does the Mutton Sheep Weather Index Insurance Promote the Mutton Sheep Industry?A Study based on the Endogenous Switching Regression Model 肉羊天气指数保险对肉羊产业有促进作用吗?基于内生转换回归模型的研究
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.17762/converter.101
Yufei Gong, Yuanfeng Zhao
In 2018, as the first livestock weather index-based insurance product for grassland animal husbandry, the mutton sheep weather index insurance was officially listed as a subsidy agricultural insurance by the Government of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, which was later in 2019 implemented throughout the XilinGol League of the autonomous region. Employing the endogenous switching regression model, this study investigates the factors influencing herdsmen's purchasing decisions, as well as the impact of mutton sheep weather index insurance on the mutton sheep industry scale, which are accomplished based on 308 survey data from herdsmen in the XilinGol League. The empirical results reveal that the age, age squared, pasture area and neighbors' purchasing intention constitute the significant influencing factors of the herdsmen's purchasing decisions, while the pasture area and net pastoral income affect the scale of mutton sheep farming prominently. Furthermore, according to the ATT results, the mutton sheep weather index insurance produces an insignificant impact on the sheep farming scale of herdsmen. The conclusions of this study suggest that the mutton sheep weather index insurance is not contrary to the cattle-increasing, sheep-reducing policy in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, which also provide a solid theoretical basis for the promotion of the insurance throughout the autonomous region.
2018年,羊肉羊天气指数保险作为草原畜牧业首个家畜天气指数保险产品,被内蒙古自治区政府正式列为补贴性农业保险,并于2019年在自治区锡林郭勒盟全面实施。本文基于锡林郭勒盟308名牧民的调查数据,运用内生转换回归模型,研究了影响牧民购买决策的因素,以及肉羊天气指数保险对肉羊产业规模的影响。实证结果表明,年龄、年龄平方、牧场面积和邻居购买意愿是牧民购买决策的显著影响因素,而牧场面积和牧区净收入对肉羊养殖规模影响显著。此外,根据ATT的结果,肉羊天气指数保险对牧民羊养殖规模的影响不显著。本研究的结论表明,羊肉羊天气指数保险与内蒙古自治区增牛减羊政策并不矛盾,也为在全区推广羊肉羊天气指数保险提供了坚实的理论依据。
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引用次数: 0
Influencing Factors of Learning Experience in Online Large-Class Teaching ——Semantic Analysis Based on Students’ Classroom Feedback Language Materials 网络大班教学中学习体验的影响因素——基于学生课堂反馈语言材料的语义分析
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.17762/converter.162
Qing Liu
As the learners' perception and reaction in multiple aspects during the course learning, learning experience is of great importance for the study of educational evaluation and the optimization of teacher teaching and teaching management. According to the text semantic analysis and questionnaire survey on students' learning feedback in online large classes,the NLPIR-Parser big-data semantic intelligent analysis platform is used in this paper to carry on keywords extraction and analysis, text sentiment analysis, text clustering and abstract extraction after the processing of original corpus, and then SPSS22.0 software is used to conduct Pearson correlation analysis on the score of text sentiment and the statistical data of questionnaire survey.The results show that the results of text semantic analysis and questionnaire survey have the consistency in positive learning experience; students' negative emotional experience has a significantly reverse correlation with learning effect score; teacher teaching, student learning,course characteristics and learning environment are proved to be the main influencing factors of students' learning experience, in which, teacher teaching plays a leading role. Then, the specific thinking of improving students' learning experience is put forward on the basis of research results.
学习体验作为学习者在课程学习过程中多方面的感知和反应,对于研究教育评价、优化教师教学和教学管理具有重要意义。本文根据对在线大班学生学习反馈的文本语义分析和问卷调查,利用NLPIR-Parser大数据语义智能分析平台,对原始语料库进行处理后,进行关键词提取分析、文本情感分析、文本聚类和抽象提取。然后利用SPSS22.0软件对文本情感得分与问卷调查统计数据进行Pearson相关分析。结果表明:文本语义分析结果与问卷调查结果在积极学习体验方面具有一致性;学生负性情绪体验与学习效果得分呈显著负相关;教师教学、学生学习、课程特色和学习环境是影响学生学习体验的主要因素,其中教师教学起主导作用。然后,在研究成果的基础上,提出了提高学生学习体验的具体思路。
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引用次数: 0
Engineering Characteristics of Natural Wide Grading Gravelly Soil in Construction of Extra-High Earth-Rockfill Dam 天然宽级配砾石土在超高土石坝施工中的工程特性
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.17762/converter.52
Zhan Zhenggang, Et al.
Wide grading gravelly soil is an advantageous anti-seepage material in construction of high earth-rock dam. From the experience of earth-rockfill dam construction at home and abroad, it is more and more common to use wide grading gravelly soils such as moraine soil, weathered rock and gravel soil as anti-seepage material in construction of high earth-rockfill dams. Regarding the engineering characteristics of natural wide grading of soil material for 300m core-wall earth-rockfill dams in this paper, a series of physical and numerical tests were carried out to study its permeability and mechanical properties. By comparing the characteristics of impermeable soil materials of the projects already built and to be built at home and abroad, the preliminary indicators of impermeable soil materials are as follows: 1) Combined with the existing engineering experience and test results, the content of particles with particle size greater than 5mm should be neither over 50% nor lower than 30%. The content of particles with particle size less than 0.075mm should not be less than 15%; the content of clayey particles with particle size less than 0.005mm should not be less than 6%. 2) It is appropriate to control the permeability coefficient of impermeable soil material at less than 1×10-5cm/s.
宽级配砾质土是高土石坝施工中一种有利的防渗材料。从国内外土石坝建设的经验来看,在高土石坝建设中,采用冰碛土、风化岩、砾石土等宽级配砾质土作为防渗材料越来越普遍。本文针对300m心墙土石坝天然宽级配土材料的工程特点,进行了一系列的物理和数值试验,研究了其渗透性和力学特性。通过对比国内外已建和待建工程的防渗土材料特性,防渗土材料的初步指标如下:1)结合已有的工程经验和试验结果,粒径大于5mm的颗粒含量不应超过50%,也不应低于30%。粒径小于0.075mm的颗粒含量不应小于15%;粒径小于0.005mm的粘土颗粒含量不应低于6%。2)不透水土材料的渗透系数控制在1×10-5cm/s以下为宜。
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引用次数: 0
Research on the Choice between Fertility and Career Development under the Universal Two Child Policy during the Post-Industrial Erain China 后工业时代中国全面二孩政策下生育与职业发展选择研究
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.17762/converter.74
Xiulan Chen, Zhaominzou
With China's society entering the post-industrialera, the decline of fertility has become a serious issue for China’s sustainable economic growth. After the implementation of the universal two-child policy, career women inChinaare confronted with the contradiction between fertility and career development. In this context, we choose career women as the research object, and investigate its fertility intention and its impact on career development. The research on this issue is not only aimed at the consequence of“the universal two-child” policy, but also seek to further explore whether the possible “universal three-child” or “fully liberalization of birth policy” will still encounter this problem.We investigated656 career women in Zhejiang Province and found that their choice of fertility was mainly affected by several characteristics, such as different age, family status, educational background, the nature of the work, exist significant difference. The results of the factor analysis model showed that there are four major factors as workplace development factor, family atmosphere factor, national policy factor, social environment factor which affectfertility intentions of the career women. Finally, logistic regression model was established using four factors are deeply analyzed the various factors, especially the career development factors on the influence of career women fertility intentions.
随着中国社会进入后工业时代,生育率的下降已经成为影响中国经济可持续增长的一个严重问题。全面二孩政策实施后,中国职业女性面临着生育与职业发展的矛盾。在此背景下,我们选择职业女性作为研究对象,调查其生育意愿及其对职业发展的影响。对这一问题的研究不仅是针对“全面二孩”政策的后果,也试图进一步探讨可能的“全面三孩”或“全面放开生育政策”是否还会遇到这一问题。通过对浙江省656名职业女性的调查发现,她们的生育选择主要受年龄、家庭状况、学历、工作性质等几个特征的影响,存在显著差异。因子分析模型结果显示,职场发展因素、家庭氛围因素、国家政策因素、社会环境因素四大因素影响职业女性生育意愿。最后,利用logistic回归模型建立了四个因素,深入分析了各个因素,尤其是职业发展因素对职业女性生育意愿的影响。
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引用次数: 0
A Hybrid GCN and LSTM Structure Based on Attention Mechanism for Crime Prediction 基于注意机制的GCN和LSTM混合结构犯罪预测
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.17762/converter.132
Jinming Hu
Globalization has been the major contributor to economy boom. While at the same time, it has stimulated the development of crime method as frequent cross-border communication allowed. With the improvement in big data and prediction system of policing work, it has become a new research field to establish an efficient crime prediction model, by which police departments could clamp down on criminal activities more accurately. Besides, this model will be quite beneficial for commanding and dispatching police force thus to improve work efficiency. This paper proposes a combination model, which uses Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM) and Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) to predict crime rate and takes advantage of the Attention mechanism to improve the experimental result. By extracting the spatio-temporal characteristics of crimes and increasing the proportion of typical feature, it can not only predict crime quantity, but also detect the degree of crime risk in each region. A rolling forecast of crime data for about three years in the Boston of the United States shows that our model has good prediction performance.
全球化是经济繁荣的主要因素。同时,由于跨境通信频繁,也刺激了犯罪手段的发展。随着警务工作大数据和预测系统的完善,建立高效的犯罪预测模型,使警务部门能够更准确地打击犯罪活动,成为一个新的研究领域。此外,该模式将非常有利于警察部队的指挥调度,从而提高工作效率。本文提出了一种结合长短期记忆网络(LSTM)和图卷积网络(GCN)预测犯罪率的组合模型,并利用注意机制对实验结果进行改进。通过提取犯罪的时空特征,增加典型特征的比例,不仅可以预测犯罪数量,还可以检测各区域的犯罪风险程度。对美国波士顿约三年的犯罪数据进行滚动预测,结果表明该模型具有较好的预测效果。
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引用次数: 1
Research on Chinese Rural Resident’ Energy-saving Behavior of Habit Adjustment --Based on Behavioral Reasoning Theory 中国农村居民习惯调整节能行为研究——基于行为推理理论
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.17762/converter.30
Changjin Liu, Et al.
With the increasing public’s energy consumption, the resident’s energy-saving behavior has been paid more attention by all walks of life. Therefore, it is important to find out what factors influence the public's energy-saving behavior. The paper constructs a conceptual model of Chinese rural residents' energy-saving behavior of habit adjustment based on behavioral reasoning theory. It examines the energy-saving behavior of habit adjustment of rural residents on the basis of investigation data from rural residents in China. We reach the following conclusions: environment values not only significantly influence global motives (including attitudes about saving energy, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control) but also via the reasons for behavior have indirectly influences to it, thereby influencing rural residents' energy-saving intentions. The reasons for behavior have an indirect impact on rural residents' energy-saving intentions via the global motives. The reasons for behavior also directly influence the rural residents' energy-saving intentions. The attitudes about saving energy, the subjective norms and the perceived behavioral control have indirectly positive impacts on rural residents' energy-saving behavior of habit adjustment via the energy-saving intentions. The Poyang Lake Ecological Zone has an important ecological protection function in China. Promoting rural residents in there to save energy can effectively protect the environment.
随着公众能源消耗的不断增加,居民的节能行为越来越受到社会各界的关注。因此,找出影响公众节能行为的因素是很重要的。基于行为推理理论,构建了中国农村居民习惯调整节能行为的概念模型。基于对中国农村居民的调查数据,对农村居民的习惯调整节能行为进行了考察。我们得出以下结论:环境价值观不仅显著影响整体动机(包括节能态度、主观规范、感知行为控制),而且通过行为原因对其产生间接影响,从而影响农村居民的节能意愿。行为原因通过全局动机对农村居民节能意愿产生间接影响。行为原因也直接影响着农村居民的节能意愿。节能态度、主观规范和感知行为控制对农村居民通过节能意愿进行习惯调节的节能行为有间接的正向影响。鄱阳湖生态区在中国具有重要的生态保护功能。促进农村居民节约能源可以有效地保护环境。
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引用次数: 0
A Study on the Implementation of U-G-S Collaborative Training Mode for Outstanding Teachers in Local Colleges and Universities 地方高校优秀教师U-G-S协同培养模式的实施研究
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.17762/converter.140
Linzi Qin†, Naizhu Huang†, Lanyan Qin
To train Excellent teachers, local universities should abandon the "university-led" training model, actively connect local governments and primary and secondary schools, and build a "three-in-one" collaborative training model for local universities (U), local governments (G), and primary and secondary schools (S). The U-G-S co-cultivation mode operates mainly with the following countermeasures: Local universities and local education administrative departments sign a strategic framework cooperation agreement, and carry out all-round cooperation around the cultivation of excellent teacher in the teacher profession; Local universities and local education administrative departments cooperate to build a basic education research institution, and promote the deep integration of theory and practice around the subject research; Local universities and primary and secondary schools cooperate to build Industry-University- Research collaborative platform and construct a whole-course practical teaching system, which include  teaching observation, teacher's moral experience, teaching and research practice, case teaching, subject discussion, and inquiry reflection to improve the quality of training talents in normal education; Local universities cooperate and primary and secondary schools cooperate to build a famous teacher studio, fully using the role of famous teachers in the cultivation of Excellent teacher.
培养优秀教师,地方高校应放弃“大学主导”的培养模式,积极对接地方政府和中小学,构建地方高校(U)、地方政府(G)、中小学(S)“三位一体”的协同培养模式。U-G-S协同培养模式主要有以下对策:地方高校与地方教育行政部门签订战略框架合作协议,围绕教师专业优秀教师培养开展全方位合作;地方高校与地方教育行政部门合作建设基础教育研究机构,围绕学科研究推进理论与实践的深度融合;地方高校与中小学合作搭建产学研协同平台,构建包括教学观察、师德体验、教研实践、案例教学、课题讨论、探究反思在内的全程实践教学体系,提高师范人才培养质量;地方高校合作、中小学合作共建名师工作室,充分发挥名师在培养优秀教师中的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Study on the Shape Optimization of Composite Slope at the End of Irregular Boundary Open-Pit Mine 不规则边界露天矿端部复合边坡形状优化研究
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.17762/converter.88
Haoran Li, Et al.
In order to optimize the shape of the compound slope at the end of the open-pit mine under the condition of non-irregular boundary, the compound slope composed of the stope end and the inner dump in the south of the open-pit mine in Pingshuo is studied. Due to the impact of land acquisition, the space of external dump is seriously insufficient, and with the development and change of mining engineering and the influence of geological structure, the problem of compound form optimization and the release and utilization of internal drain space in the south side is generated. Through field investigation and theoretical analysis and numerical analysis method, on the basis of investigating the ore party production status, to establish a 3 d geological model, select two battery profile typical position, using rigid body limit equilibrium method from the perspective of 2 d, in the full study south help shrink battery limit compound stope side slope and mine safety distance, flat width, and the direction of dump active line and the relationship between the stability design of multiple slope configuration scheme, through the various methods of slope stability, enforceability and comparing some important parameters such as displacement capacity, ultimately determine the technology feasible economic and reasonable boundary zone composite slope space form. Based on the above research results, FLAC3D software was used to study the stress-strain relationship inside the slope, revealing the deformation and failure mechanism and stability of the composite slope in the south bound area. The results show that the landslide mode and stability of the composite slope in the south bound area of pingshuoAndaobao open-pit coal mine are mainly controlled by the safe distance between stope and dump and the weak layer of 11 coal floor. According to the design, the economic and reasonable parameters of the composite slope in the south slope shrinkage boundary area are as follows: the safe distance between the stope end side and the dump site is 50m, the width of the dump flat plate is 60m, and the working line Angle of the dump line with the abandonment height of 255m is 125°, the total discard space was95,934,100 m3.
为了优化非不规则边界条件下露天矿末端复合边坡的形状,对平朔露天矿南部采场末端与内排土场组成的复合边坡进行了研究。由于征地的影响,外部排土场空间严重不足,随着矿山工程的发展变化和地质构造的影响,产生了复合形态优化和南侧内部排土场空间释放利用的问题。通过现场调查和理论分析及数值分析方法,在调查矿方生产现状的基础上,建立了三维地质模型,选取了两个炮台剖面的典型位置,采用刚体极限平衡法从二维角度出发,在充分研究南侧帮助缩小炮台极限复合采场边坡与矿山的安全距离、平坦宽度;并根据排土场活动线方向与边坡稳定性的关系设计了多种边坡配置方案,通过各种方法对边坡稳定性、可执行性和位移能力等一些重要参数的比较,最终确定了技术可行、经济合理的边界带复合边坡空间形态。基于上述研究成果,利用FLAC3D软件对边坡内部应力-应变关系进行研究,揭示南界复合边坡的变形破坏机制及稳定性。结果表明:平朔安达堡露天煤矿南界区复合边坡的滑坡模式和稳定性主要受采场与排土场安全距离和11煤层底板软弱层的控制。根据设计,南坡收缩边界区复合边坡的经济合理参数为:采场端侧与排土场安全距离为50m,排土场平面宽度为60m,排土场弃土高度为255m的排土线工作线角为125°,总弃土空间为95,934,100 m3。
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引用次数: 0
Study for a Wall-Climbing Robot Magnetic Attraction Force of An Electronically Controlled Permanent Magnet 攀壁机器人电控永磁体磁力的研究
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.17762/converter.110
Xin Chen, Wuwei Feng, Yulian Zhang, Minglei Li, Shifei Wu
With the advancement in science and technology, a wall-climbing robot attached to the ship's outer surface is increasingly replacing humans in the rust removal. The magnetic force is not just the adsorption force but also the moving resistance force, which is currently the technological bottleneck in wall-climbing robotics based on magnetic adsorption. This paper proposes a novel wall-climbing robot based on electrically controlled permanent magnet technology to solve this problem. An electrically controlled permanent magnetic wall-climbing robot is proposed to realize the function of magnetization and demagnetization by changing the pulse current. The results of the experiments reveal that the magnetizing force is adequately adsorbed on the ship's outer surface. The magnetic attraction force is close to 0 N during demagnetization, meaning that the system is fully unloaded, as predicted by the theoretical analysis.
随着科学技术的进步,附着在船外表面的爬壁机器人越来越多地取代人类进行除锈。磁力不仅是吸附力,同时也是运动阻力,这是目前基于磁吸附的爬壁机器人的技术瓶颈。为了解决这一问题,本文提出了一种基于电控永磁技术的爬壁机器人。提出了一种电控永磁爬壁机器人,通过改变脉冲电流实现磁化和退磁功能。实验结果表明,船舶外表面充分吸附了磁化力。在退磁过程中,磁性吸引力接近0 N,这意味着系统完全卸载,正如理论分析所预测的那样。
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引用次数: 0
The Analysis on the Relationship between Dating and the Gel-ink Material Penetration of Handwriting along Z Direction on Paper 纸上Z向手迹胶墨材料渗透性与年代关系分析
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.17762/converter.188
Jiangchun Li, Et al.
Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) technology has been widely used in forensic science, which promotes the development of interdisciplinary science. This paper used SEM to observe the penetration degree of common black gel-ink on paper. The penetration morphology of the different black brands gel-ink has been observed. The relationship between the penetration process of gel-ink material and the dating of document has been observed after determining the measuring position. The results showed that the penetration depth of ink along Z direction on paper is significantly different, the penetration speed of ink is also different, which presents regular variety and gradually reaches a relatively stable state over time. The application of SEM will provide a useful exploration for judging the ink dating.
扫描电子显微镜(SEM)技术在法医学中得到了广泛的应用,促进了交叉学科的发展。本文利用扫描电子显微镜观察了普通黑色凝胶墨对纸张的渗透程度。观察了不同黑色品牌凝胶油墨的渗透形貌。在确定测量位置后,观察了胶墨材料的渗透过程与文献年代的关系。结果表明,油墨在纸张上沿Z方向的渗透深度有显著差异,油墨的渗透速度也有差异,并呈现规律变化,并随着时间的推移逐渐达到相对稳定的状态。扫描电镜的应用将为判断油墨年代提供有益的探索。
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引用次数: 0
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