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Common value auctions with buy prices 有买入价的共同价值拍卖
Pub Date : 2010-05-14 DOI: 10.1145/1807406.1807452
Quazi Shahriar
Risk aversion and impatience of either the bidders or the seller have been utilized to explain the popularity of buy prices in private value auctions. This paper, using a pure common value framework, models auctions with "temporary" buy prices. We characterize equilibrium bidding strategies in a general setup and then analyze a seller's incentive to post a buy price when there are two bidders. We find that, when bidders are either risk neutral or risk averse, a risk neutral seller has no incentive to post a buy price. But when the seller is risk averse, a suitably chosen buy price can raise his expected payoff when the bidders are either risk neutral or risk averse. Since expected seller revenue is lower, bidders' expected payments are likely to be lower in a common value buy-price auction. This paper thus gives a possible explanation for the popularity of buy-price auctions with both bidders and sellers.
风险规避和买方或卖方的不耐烦被用来解释私人价值拍卖中买入价的流行。本文使用纯共同价值框架,对具有“临时”买入价的拍卖进行建模。我们描述了一般情况下的均衡竞价策略,然后分析了当有两个竞标者时卖方发布买入价的动机。我们发现,当竞标者是风险中性或风险厌恶者时,风险中性的卖方没有动力公布买入价。但当卖方是风险厌恶者时,当投标人是风险中立者或风险厌恶者时,选择合适的买入价格可以提高卖方的预期收益。由于卖方预期收入较低,在共同价值买价拍卖中,投标人的预期付款可能较低。因此,本文给出了买入价拍卖在投标人和卖方之间流行的一个可能的解释。
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引用次数: 3
A two tiered dynamic oligopoly model 两层动态寡头垄断模型
Pub Date : 2010-05-14 DOI: 10.1145/1807406.1807472
Bar Ifrach, V. Farias, G. Weintraub
Dynamic oligopoly models are used in industrial organization and the management sciences to analyze diverse dynamic phenomena such as investments in R&D or capacity, the entry and exit of firms, and dynamic pricing. The applicability of these models has been severely limited, however, by the curse of dimensionality involved in the Markov perfect equilibrium (MPE) computation. In this work we introduce a new model and equilibrium concept that alleviates the curse of dimensionality. Our model focuses on "two-tiered" industries in which few "dominant" firms have a significant market share and there are many "fringe" firms with a small market share each; this is a prevalent market structure in many industries. In MPE each firm keeps track of all of its competitors' individual states, which for example, represent their quality level. In our approach each firm keeps track of the individual states of dominant firms only and of few aggregate statistics that summarize the state of fringe firms; this dramatically reduces the dimensionality of the equilibrium computation problem. We present an asymptotic result that provides a theoretical justification for our approach. We introduce an efficient algorithm to compute our equilibrium concept and report results from computational case studies that illustrate applications. Our results suggest that our approach greatly increases the applicability of dynamic oligopoly models and opens up the door to studying novel issues in industry dynamics.
动态寡头垄断模型在产业组织和管理科学中被用于分析各种动态现象,如研发或产能投资、企业进入和退出以及动态定价。然而,这些模型的适用性受到马尔可夫完美平衡(MPE)计算中的维数诅咒的严重限制。在这项工作中,我们引入了一个新的模型和平衡概念,减轻了维度的诅咒。我们的模型关注的是“两层”行业,在这些行业中,很少有“主导”企业占有显著的市场份额,而有许多“边缘”企业各占有很小的市场份额;这是许多行业普遍存在的市场结构。在MPE中,每个公司都跟踪其所有竞争对手的个别状态,例如,这些状态代表了他们的质量水平。在我们的方法中,每个公司只跟踪占主导地位的公司的个别状态,而很少跟踪汇总边缘公司状态的统计数据;这极大地降低了平衡计算问题的维数。我们提出了一个渐近的结果,为我们的方法提供了理论依据。我们介绍了一种有效的算法来计算我们的均衡概念,并报告了说明应用的计算案例研究的结果。我们的研究结果表明,我们的方法大大提高了动态寡头垄断模型的适用性,并为研究行业动态中的新问题打开了大门。
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引用次数: 0
Aggregate matchings 总拼毛
Pub Date : 2010-05-14 DOI: 10.1145/1807406.1807477
Federique Echenique, SangMok Lee, M. Shum
This paper characterizes the testable implications of stability for aggregate matchings. We consider data on matchings where individuals are aggregated, based on their observable characteristics, into types, and we know how many agents of each type match. We derive stability conditions for an aggregate matching, and, based on these, provide a simple necessary and sufficient condition for an observed aggregate matching to be rationalizable (i.e. such that preferences can be found so that the observed aggregate matching is stable). Subsequently, we derive moment inequalities based on the stability conditions, and provide an empirical illustration using the cross-sectional marriage distributions across the US states.
本文描述了集合匹配稳定性的可测试含义。我们考虑匹配的数据,其中个体根据其可观察的特征聚合为类型,并且我们知道每种类型匹配的代理数量。我们推导了一个聚合匹配的稳定性条件,并在此基础上,提供了一个简单的必要和充分条件,使观察到的聚合匹配合理化(即,可以找到偏好,使观察到的聚合匹配是稳定的)。随后,我们推导了基于稳定性条件的矩不等式,并使用美国各州的横截面婚姻分布提供了一个实证说明。
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引用次数: 20
Pricing with markups under horizontal and vertical competition 横向和纵向竞争下的加价定价
Pub Date : 2010-05-14 DOI: 10.1145/1807406.1807498
J. Correa, R. Lederman, N. Stier-Moses
We model a market for a single product that may be composed of sub-products that face horizontal and vertical competition. Each firm, offering all or some portion of the product, adopts a price function proportional to its costs by deciding on the size of a markup. Customers then choose a set of providers that offers the lowest total cost. We characterize equilibria of the two-stage game and study the efficiency resulting from the competitive structure of the market.
我们为单个产品建立市场模型,该市场可能由面临水平和垂直竞争的子产品组成。每个提供全部或部分产品的公司,通过决定加价的大小,采用与成本成比例的价格函数。然后,客户选择一组提供最低总成本的供应商。我们描述了两阶段博弈的均衡,并研究了市场竞争结构导致的效率。
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引用次数: 4
n-newsvendor biform game of trading capacity futures n-新闻供应商能力期货交易的双形式博弈
Pub Date : 2010-05-14 DOI: 10.1145/1807406.1807438
Yick-hin Hung, Leon Y. O. Li, T. Cheng
We consider a group of suppliers who have the same facilities and similar capabilities to produce goods with a very short lead-time for n retailers (newsvendors) who sell non-identical products. We treat such short lead-time capacity as a commodity that can be traded as futures to the retailers. In a two-stage inventory model, retailers buy physical goods and capacity futures as inventory portfolios in the first stage to determine their inventory positions in the selling season. After realization of demand is observed in the second stage, retailers make a replenishment decision that is limited to the capacity futures on hand. However, retailers are allowed to form coalitions to transfer the residual capacity futures among themselves. Therefore, retailers have bidirectional adjustments to their inventory positions. We prove that this mechanism is a good tool to induce suppliers to offer their capacities in the season, and the futures market provides a hedge for them. We employ a biform game to analyze the risk and payoff of retailers as players in both non-cooperative and cooperative stages. The Nash equilibrium in the first stage and the core in the second stage have been identified. Our findings suggest retailers can share risk among different supply chains with different products to mitigate inventory risk and improve their payoffs. However, the game discriminates against those retailers that have lower profit margin, lower inventory cost and lower lost sales penalty.
我们考虑一组供应商,他们拥有相同的设施和类似的能力,可以在很短的交货期内为 n 个销售非同类产品的零售商(newsvendors)生产商品。我们将这种短交货期能力视为一种商品,可以作为期货交易提供给零售商。在两阶段库存模型中,零售商在第一阶段购买实物商品和产能期货作为库存组合,以确定其在销售季节的库存头寸。在第二阶段观察到需求实现后,零售商做出的补货决策仅限于手头的产能期货。然而,零售商之间可以结成联盟,转让剩余的产能期货。因此,零售商可以双向调整其库存头寸。我们证明了这一机制是促使供应商在旺季提供产能的良好工具,而期货市场则为供应商提供了对冲工具。我们采用双形式博弈来分析零售商作为博弈方在非合作和合作阶段的风险和收益。我们确定了第一阶段的纳什均衡和第二阶段的核心均衡。我们的研究结果表明,零售商可以在不同产品的不同供应链之间分担风险,从而降低库存风险,提高收益。然而,博弈会歧视那些利润率较低、库存成本较低和销售损失惩罚较低的零售商。
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引用次数: 0
Bounded rationality in games 游戏中的有限理性
Pub Date : 2010-05-14 DOI: 10.1145/1807406.1807434
W. Kets
How do people reason about others in strategic situations and how does that affect their behavior? These questions have been at the forefront of game theory since its inception in the first half of the twentieth century. Traditionally, the focus has been on the question how "rational" players behave. As already observed by VonNeumann and Morgenstern (1944), however, the question how rational players should behave cannot be separated from the question how non-rational players behave. Even if one is concerned only with rational behavior, the interactive nature of the problem makes that one has to deal with all possible types of players: What is optimal for a rational player depends on what he expects his opponents to do, and these opponents may be boundedly rational. It is therefore desirable to have a theory of behavior in strategic settings that encompasses both perfect rationality and forms of bounded rationality. In this talk, I describe a general theoretical framework that takes into account that individuals may have limited capacities to reason about others, and sometimes only have access to a very coarse description of the game. I discuss the strategic implications of such a framework.
在战略情境中,人们如何推断他人,这又如何影响他们的行为?自20世纪上半叶博弈论诞生以来,这些问题一直处于博弈论的前沿。传统上,人们关注的焦点是“理性”参与者的行为。然而,正如VonNeumann和Morgenstern(1944)所观察到的那样,理性参与者应该如何行为的问题与非理性参与者如何行为的问题是分不开的。即使你只关注理性行为,问题的互动性也会让你不得不面对所有可能的玩家类型:对于理性玩家来说,什么是最优的取决于他对对手的预期,而这些对手可能是有限理性的。因此,在战略环境中建立一种既包含完美理性又包含有限理性形式的行为理论是可取的。在这次演讲中,我将描述一个通用的理论框架,该框架考虑到个人可能具有有限的推断他人的能力,有时只能获得非常粗糙的游戏描述。我将讨论这一框架的战略意义。
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引用次数: 0
Competitive equilibrium computation at advertising marketplaces 广告市场的竞争均衡计算
Pub Date : 2010-05-14 DOI: 10.1145/1807406.1807470
Xiaotie Deng
There have been two major market price determination techniques in Economics: Auction and Competitive Equilibrium. While auction has found great applications in practical markets such as antique market, and recently sponsored search market, equilibrium has been used mostly in policy analysis such as by the World Bank. In this talk, we discuss the possibility equilibrium analysis could be applied to the advertising market, with complexity analysis and polynomial time algorithm designs. In addition, we study issues where two concepts relate to each other, as well as the interplays between the market maker and advertisers.
经济学中有两种主要的市场价格决定技术:拍卖和竞争均衡。虽然拍卖在古董市场和最近赞助的搜索市场等实际市场中有很大的应用,但均衡主要用于政策分析,如世界银行。在这篇演讲中,我们讨论了均衡分析应用于广告市场的可能性,以及复杂度分析和多项式时间算法设计。此外,我们还研究了两个概念相互关联的问题,以及做市商和广告商之间的相互作用。
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引用次数: 0
Communication dynamics in endogenous social networks 内生性社会网络中的交流动态
Pub Date : 2010-05-14 DOI: 10.1145/1807406.1807499
K. Bimpikis, D. Acemoglu, A. Ozdaglar
We develop a model of information exchange through communication and investigate its implications for information aggregation in large societies. An underlying state (of the world) determines which action has higher payoff. Agents decide which agents to form a communication link with incurring the associated cost and receive a private signal correlated with the underlying state. They then exchange information over the induced communication network until taking an (irreversible) action. We define asymptotic learning as the fraction of agents taking the correct action converging to one in probability as a society grows large. Under truthful communication, we show that asymptotic learning occurs if (and under some additional conditions, also only if) in the induced communication network most agents are a short distance away from "information hubs", which receive and distribute a large amount of information. Asymptotic learning therefore requires information to be aggregated in the hands of a few agents. We then provide a systematic investigation of what types of cost structures and associated social cliques (consisting of groups of individuals linked to each other at zero cost, such as friendship networks) ensure the emergence of communication networks that lead to asymptotic learning. Finally, we show how these results can be applied to several commonly studied random graph models, such as preferential attachment and Erdos-Renyi graphs.
我们开发了一个通过沟通进行信息交换的模型,并研究了它对大型社会中信息聚集的影响。(游戏世界的)潜在状态决定了哪种行为具有更高的收益。代理决定与哪些代理形成通信链接,从而产生相关的成本,并接收与底层状态相关的私有信号。然后它们通过诱导的通信网络交换信息,直到采取(不可逆的)行动。我们将渐近学习定义为随着社会规模的扩大,采取正确行动的智能体的比例在概率上收敛为1。在真实通信条件下,我们发现当(在一些附加条件下,也仅当)在诱导通信网络中,大多数智能体距离接收和分发大量信息的“信息中心”很近时才会发生渐近学习。因此,渐近学习要求信息集中在几个代理的手中。然后,我们对哪种类型的成本结构和相关的社会集团(由以零成本相互联系的个人群体组成,例如友谊网络)确保导致渐近学习的通信网络的出现进行了系统的调查。最后,我们展示了如何将这些结果应用于几种常用的随机图模型,如优先依恋和Erdos-Renyi图。
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引用次数: 4
Structural estimation of discrete-choice games of incomplete information with multiple equilibria 具有多均衡的不完全信息离散选择对策的结构估计
Pub Date : 2010-05-14 DOI: 10.1145/1807406.1807445
Che-Lin Su, K. Judd
Estimation of games with multiple equilibria has received much attention in the recent econometrics literature. Unlike other estimation problems such as single-agent dynamic decision models or demand estimation, in which there is a unique solution in the underlying structural models, games usually admit multiple equilibria and the number of equilibria in a game can vary for different structural parameters. This fact makes the estimation of games far more challenging because the likelihood function or other criterion function defined in the space of structural parameters can be discontinuous or non-differentiable. Two-step estimators by Bajari et al. (2007) and Pesendorfer and Schmidt-Dengler (2008) and Nested Pusedo Likelihood (NPL) estimators by Aguirregabiria and Mira (2007) are proposed to address this problem. We recast the estimation problem as a constrained optimization problem with the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium condition being the constraints. The advantage of our formulation is that the likelihood function, now defined in the equilibrium probability space, is continuous and smooth. This allows researchers to use state-of-the-art optimization software to solve the estimation problem. In a Monte Carlo study, we compare the performance of a two-step estimator, NLP estimator, and our constrained optimization estimator.
在最近的计量经济学文献中,多重均衡博弈的估计受到了广泛的关注。不像其他估计问题,如单智能体动态决策模型或需求估计,在潜在的结构模型中有一个唯一的解决方案,博弈通常允许多个均衡,博弈中均衡的数量可以因不同的结构参数而变化。这一事实使得游戏的估计更具挑战性,因为在结构参数空间中定义的可能性函数或其他标准函数可能是不连续的或不可微的。提出了Bajari等人(2007)和Pesendorfer和Schmidt-Dengler(2008)的两步估计器以及Aguirregabiria和Mira(2007)的嵌套Pusedo似然(NPL)估计器来解决这个问题。我们以贝叶斯-纳什均衡条件为约束条件,将估计问题转化为约束优化问题。我们的公式的优点是,现在在均衡概率空间中定义的似然函数是连续的和光滑的。这使得研究人员可以使用最先进的优化软件来解决估计问题。在蒙特卡罗研究中,我们比较了两步估计器、NLP估计器和我们的约束优化估计器的性能。
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引用次数: 3
Cognitive hierarchy modelling of lab, field and neural data 实验室,现场和神经数据的认知层次模型
Pub Date : 2010-05-14 DOI: 10.1145/1807406.1807440
Colin Camerer
Cognitive hierarchy and level-k models assume players use steps of reasoning iteratively. Precision comes from making (and testing) various assumptions about the step distribution, beliefs of players at each step, and responsiveness to expected payoff. I describe several empirical examples of these models applied to lab experiments and two field settings. In addition, eyetracking and some neural evidence are supportive of the concept of limits of iterated thinking and suggest some interesting research directions.
认知层次和k级模型假设玩家迭代地使用推理步骤。精确度来自于对步骤分布、玩家在每一步的信念以及对预期收益的反应做出(和测试)各种假设。我描述了这些模型应用于实验室实验和两个现场设置的几个经验例子。此外,眼动追踪和一些神经证据支持迭代思维极限的概念,并提出了一些有趣的研究方向。
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引用次数: 0
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Behavioral and Quantitative Game Theory
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