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Intertwined people-nature relations are central to nature-based adaptation to climate change. 人与自然相互交织的关系是基于自然适应气候变化的核心。
IF 5.4 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0213
Bruno Locatelli, Sandra Lavorel, Matthew J Colloff, Emilie Crouzat, Enora Bruley, Giacomo Fedele, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, Tobias Plieninger, Erik Andersson, Mick Abbott, James Butler, Tahia Devisscher, Houria Djoudi, Titouan Dubo, Alberto González-García, Paulina G Karim, Claudia Múnera-Roldán, Margot Neyret, Fabien Quétier, Nicolas Salliou, Gretchen Walters

Adaptation to climate change is a social-ecological process: it is not solely a result of natural processes or human decisions but emerges from multiple relations within social systems, within ecological systems and between them. We propose a novel analytical framework to evaluate social-ecological relations in nature-based adaptation, encompassing social (people-people), ecological (nature-nature) and social-ecological (people-nature) relations. Applying this framework to 25 case studies, we analyse the associations among these relations and identify archetypes of social-ecological adaptation. Our findings revealed that adaptation actions with more people-nature relations mobilize more social and ecological relations. We identified four archetypes, with distinct modes of adaptation along a gradient of people-nature interaction scores, summarized as: (i) nature control; (ii) biodiversity-based; (iii) ecosystem services-based; and (iv) integrated approaches. This study contributes to a nuanced understanding of nature-based adaptation, highlighting the importance of integrating diverse relations across social and ecological systems. Our findings offer valuable insights for informing the design and implementation of adaptation strategies and policies.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

适应气候变化是一个社会-生态过程:它不仅仅是自然过程或人类决定的结果,而是来自社会系统内部、生态系统内部以及它们之间的多重关系。我们提出了一个新的分析框架来评估基于自然的适应中的社会-生态关系,包括社会(人-人)、生态(自然-自然)和社会-生态(人-自然)关系。将这一框架应用于25个案例研究,我们分析了这些关系之间的联系,并确定了社会生态适应的原型。我们的研究结果表明,具有更多人与自然关系的适应行动调动了更多的社会和生态关系。我们确定了四种原型,它们在人与自然互动得分的梯度上具有不同的适应模式,总结为:(i)自然控制;(2) biodiversity-based;(iii)基于生态系统服务;(四)综合对策。这项研究有助于细致入微地理解基于自然的适应,强调了整合社会和生态系统之间各种关系的重要性。我们的研究结果为适应战略和政策的设计和实施提供了有价值的见解。这篇文章是讨论会议议题“弯曲自然恢复的曲线:以乔治娜梅斯的遗产为基础建设生物多样性的未来”的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring trends in extinction risk: a review of two decades of development and application of the Red List Index. 衡量灭绝风险的趋势:红色名录指数二十年的发展和应用综述。
IF 5.4 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0206
Stuart H M Butchart, H Resit Akçakaya, Alex J Berryman, Thomas M Brooks, Ian J Burfield, Janice Chanson, Maria P Dias, John S Donaldson, Claudia Hermes, Craig Hilton-Taylor, Mike Hoffmann, Jennifer A Luedtke, Rob Martin, Amy McDougall, Kelsey Neam, Beth Polidoro, Domitilla Raimondo, Ana S L Rodrigues, Carlo Rondinini, Claire Rutherford, Tom Scott, Ashley T Simkins, Simon N Stuart, Jemma Vine

The Red List Index (RLI) is an indicator of the average extinction risk of groups of species and reflects trends in this through time. It is calculated from the number of species in each category on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, with trends influenced by the number moving between categories when reassessed owing to genuine improvement or deterioration in status. The global RLI is aggregated across multiple taxonomic groups and can be disaggregated to show trends for subsets of species (e.g. migratory species), or driven by particular factors (e.g. international trade). National RLIs have been generated through either repeated assessments of national extinction risk in each country or through disaggregating the global index and weighting each species by the proportion of its range in each country. The RLI has achieved wide policy uptake, including by the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Future priorities include expanding its taxonomic coverage, applying the RLI to the goals and targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, incorporating uncertainty in the underlying Red List assessments, integrating into national RLIs the impact of a country on species' extinction risk abroad, and improving analysis of the factors driving trends.This article is part of the discussion theme issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

红色名录指数(RLI)是物种群体平均灭绝风险的指标,反映了这一趋势。它是根据世界自然保护联盟《濒危物种红色名录》中每一类的物种数量计算的,其趋势受到由于状况真正改善或恶化而重新评估时在类别之间移动的数量的影响。全球RLI是跨多个分类类群的汇总,可以细分以显示物种子集(如迁徙物种)的趋势,或由特定因素(如国际贸易)驱动。国家灭绝风险指数是通过重复评估每个国家的国家灭绝风险或通过分解全球指数并按每个国家物种范围的比例对每个物种进行加权而产生的。扶轮领导学院已获得广泛的政策采纳,包括《生物多样性公约》和联合国可持续发展目标。未来的优先事项包括扩大其分类覆盖范围,将RLI应用于昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样性框架的目标和指标,将不确定性纳入基础红色名录评估,将一个国家对国外物种灭绝风险的影响纳入国家RLI,以及改进对驱动趋势的因素的分析。本文是讨论主题“弯曲自然恢复曲线:以乔治娜·梅斯的遗产为基础建设生物多样性的未来”的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
Bending the curve of biodiversity loss requires a 'satnav' for nature. 扭转生物多样性丧失的曲线需要一个自然的“卫星导航”。
IF 5.4 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0210
Andy Purvis

Georgina Mace proposed bending the curve of biodiversity loss as a fitting ambition for the Convention on Biological Diversity. The new Global Biodiversity Monitoring Framework (GBMF) may increase the chances of meeting the goals and targets in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF), which requires bending the curve. To meet the outcome goals of KMGBF, the GBMF should support adaptive policy responses to the state of biodiversity, which in turn requires a 'satnav' for nature. The twin pillars of such a satnav are (i) models to predict expected future outcomes of today's choices; and (ii) rapid feedback from monitoring to enable course corrections and model improvement. These same elements will also empower organizations to ensure that their actions are truly nature-positive, but they are not yet written into the GBMF. Without a satnav, society will effectively have to try to find its way to the outcome goals by looking in the rear-view mirror that the current headline indicators provide. Drawing contrasts and parallels with climate modelling, I discuss challenges for indicators, models, data and research culture that must be overcome if we are to bend the curve, and suggest ways forward.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

乔治娜·梅斯(Georgina Mace)提议扭转生物多样性丧失的曲线,作为《生物多样性公约》的一个合适目标。新的全球生物多样性监测框架(GBMF)可能会增加实现昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样性框架(KMGBF)目标和指标的机会,这需要弯曲曲线。为了实现KMGBF的成果目标,GBMF应该支持针对生物多样性状况的适应性政策响应,而这反过来又需要一个自然的“卫星导航”。这种卫星导航的两大支柱是:(1)预测当前选择的预期未来结果的模型;(ii)从监测中获得快速反馈,以实现航向修正和模型改进。这些相同的元素也将授权组织确保他们的行动是真正的自然积极的,但它们还没有被写入GBMF。如果没有卫星导航,社会实际上将不得不通过观察当前主要指标提供的后视镜,试图找到通往最终目标的道路。通过与气候建模的对比和相似之处,我讨论了指标、模型、数据和研究文化面临的挑战,如果我们要扭转曲线,就必须克服这些挑战,并提出了前进的方向。这篇文章是讨论会议议题“弯曲自然恢复的曲线:以乔治娜梅斯的遗产为基础建设生物多样性的未来”的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
Sustainable high-yield farming is essential for bending the curve of biodiversity loss. 可持续的高产农业是扭转生物多样性丧失曲线的关键。
IF 5.4 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0216
Andrew Balmford, Ian J Bateman, Alison Eyres, Tom Swinfield, Thomas S Ball

Food production does more damage to wild species than any other sector of human activity, yet how best to limit its growing impact is greatly contested. Reviewing progress to date in interventions that encourage less damaging diets or cut food loss and waste, we conclude that both are essential but far from sufficient. In terms of production, field studies from five continents quantifying the population-level impacts of land sharing, land sparing, intermediate and mixed approaches for almost 2000 individually assessed species show that implementing high-yield farming to spare natural habitats consistently outperforms land sharing, particularly for species of highest conservation concern. Sparing also offers considerable potential for mitigating climate change. Delivering land sparing nevertheless raises several important challenges-in particular, identifying and promoting higher yielding farm systems that are less environmentally harmful than current industrial agriculture, and devising mechanisms to limit rebound effects and instead tie yield gains to habitat conservation. Progress will depend on conservationists forging novel collaborations with the agriculture sector. While this may be challenging, we suggest that without it there is no realistic prospect of slowing biodiversity loss.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

粮食生产对野生物种造成的损害比人类活动的任何其他部门都要大,但如何最好地限制其日益增长的影响却存在很大争议。回顾迄今为止在鼓励危害较小的饮食或减少粮食损失和浪费的干预措施方面取得的进展,我们得出结论,两者都是必要的,但远远不够。在生产方面,来自五大洲的实地研究量化了土地共享、土地节约、中间和混合方法对近2000个单独评估物种的人口水平影响,结果表明,实施高产农业以节省自然栖息地的效果始终优于土地共享,特别是对最受保护的物种。节约也为减缓气候变化提供了相当大的潜力。然而,节约土地带来了几个重要的挑战——特别是,确定和推广比当前工业化农业对环境危害更小的高产农业系统,以及设计限制反弹效应的机制,将产量增加与栖息地保护联系起来。进展将取决于环保人士与农业部门建立新的合作关系。虽然这可能具有挑战性,但我们认为,没有它,就没有减缓生物多样性丧失的现实前景。这篇文章是讨论会议议题“弯曲自然恢复的曲线:以乔治娜梅斯的遗产为基础建设生物多样性的未来”的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
The utility of the Living Planet Index as a policy tool and for measuring nature recovery. 地球生命力指数作为政策工具和衡量自然恢复的效用。
IF 5.4 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0207
Louise McRae, Richard Cornford, Valentina Marconi, Hannah Puleston, Sophie E H Ledger, Stefanie Deinet, Philippa Oppenheimer, Mike Hoffmann, Robin Freeman

The Living Planet Index (LPI) is a leading global biodiversity indicator based on vertebrate population time series. Since it was first developed over 25 years ago, the LPI has been widely used to indicate trends in biodiversity globally, primarily reported every two years in the Living Planet Report. Based on relative abundance, a sensitive metric of biodiversity change, the LPI has also been applied as a tool for informing policy and used in assessments for several multilateral conventions and agreements, including the Convention on Biological Diversity 2010 Biodiversity Target and Aichi targets. Here, we outline all current and some potential uses of the LPI as a policy tool and explore the use of the LPI in policy documents to assess the reach of the LPI geographically and over time. We present limitations to the use of this indicator in policy, primarily relating to the development of the index at the national level, and suggest clear pathways to broaden the utility of the LPI and the underlying database for temporal and spatial predictions of biodiversity change. We also provide evidence that the LPI can detect recoveries in biodiversity and suggest its suitability for measuring progress towards the goal of biodiversity recovery by 2050.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

地球生命指数(LPI)是基于脊椎动物种群时间序列的全球生物多样性指标。自25年前首次开发以来,LPI已被广泛用于表明全球生物多样性的趋势,主要是每两年在《地球生命力报告》中报告一次。基于相对丰度这一生物多样性变化的敏感指标,LPI还被用作政策信息的工具,并用于若干多边公约和协定的评估,包括《2010年生物多样性公约》的生物多样性目标和爱知目标。在这里,我们概述了LPI作为政策工具的所有当前和一些潜在用途,并探讨了LPI在政策文件中的使用,以评估LPI在地理上和时间上的影响范围。我们提出了在政策中使用该指标的局限性,主要与国家一级指数的发展有关,并提出了明确的途径,以扩大LPI和生物多样性变化时空预测基础数据库的效用。我们还提供了证据,表明LPI可以检测生物多样性的恢复,并建议其适合于衡量2050年生物多样性恢复目标的进展情况。这篇文章是讨论会议议题“弯曲自然恢复的曲线:以乔治娜梅斯的遗产为基础建设生物多样性的未来”的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
Science and technical priorities for private sector action to address biodiversity loss. 私营部门应对生物多样性丧失行动的科学和技术优先事项。
IF 5.4 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0208
Emily J McKenzie, Matt Jones, Nina Seega, Juha Siikamäki, Varsha Vijay

Target 15 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework recognizes the importance of the private sector monitoring, assessing and disclosing biodiversity-related risks, dependencies and impacts. Many businesses and financial institutions are progressing with science-based assessments, targets and disclosures and integrating into strategy, risk management and capital allocation decisions. Developments will continue in response to investor expectations, emerging corporate sustainability reporting regulations in Europe, China and elsewhere and evolving global sustainability reporting standards. Voluntary action is also being encouraged by the disclosure recommendations of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures and the target-setting methods of the Science Based Targets Network. Based on experience supporting the private sector in practice, we identify four critical science and technical advances needed to enable business action at scale and to redirect finance globally to halt and reverse biodiversity loss. First, consensus on indicators and metrics for measuring changes in the state of nature and provision of ecosystem services. Second, access to global, regularly updated, location-specific and consistent nature data. Third, standardized and consistent accounting systems that structure data, support risk management and create accountability at corporate, ecosystem and national levels. Fourth, integrated risk assessment approaches to help corporates, financial institutions, central banks and supervisors to assess nature-related risks.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

《昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样性框架》的目标15认识到私营部门监测、评估和披露生物多样性相关风险、依赖关系和影响的重要性。许多企业和金融机构正在推进基于科学的评估、目标和披露,并将其纳入战略、风险管理和资本配置决策。根据投资者的期望、欧洲、中国和其他地区新兴的企业可持续发展报告法规以及不断发展的全球可持续发展报告标准,将继续发展。与自然有关的财务披露工作组的披露建议和基于科学的目标网络的目标设定方法也鼓励自愿行动。根据在实践中支持私营部门的经验,我们确定了四项关键的科学和技术进步,以实现大规模的商业行动,并在全球范围内重新定向资金,以阻止和扭转生物多样性的丧失。首先,就衡量自然状态变化和提供生态系统服务的指标和指标达成共识。第二,获取全球性、定期更新、特定地点和一致性的数据。第三,标准化和一致的会计系统,构建数据,支持风险管理,并在企业、生态系统和国家层面建立问责制。第四,综合风险评估方法,帮助企业、金融机构、央行和监管机构评估与自然有关的风险。这篇文章是讨论会议议题“弯曲自然恢复的曲线:以乔治娜梅斯的遗产为基础建设生物多样性的未来”的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
A global biogeographic regionalization for butterflies. 全球蝴蝶生物地理区划。
IF 5.4 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0211
Collin P Gross, April M Wright, Barnabas H Daru

The partitioning of global biodiversity into biogeographic regions is critical for understanding the impacts of global-scale ecological and evolutionary processes on species assemblages as well as prioritizing areas for conservation. However, the lack of globally comprehensive data on species distributions precludes fine-scale estimation of biogeographical regionalization for numerous taxa of ecological, economic and conservation interest. Using a recently published phylogeny and novel curated native range maps for over 10 000 species of butterflies around the world, we delineated biogeographic regions for the world's butterflies using phylogenetic dissimilarity. We uncovered 19 distinct phylogenetically delimited regions (phyloregions) nested within 6 realms. Regional boundaries were predicted by spatial turnover in modern-day temperature and precipitation seasonality, but historical climate change also left a pronounced fingerprint on deeper- (realm-) level boundaries. We use a culturally and ecologically important group of insects to expand our understanding of how historical and contemporary factors drive the distribution of organismal lineages on the Earth. As insects and global biodiversity more generally face unprecedented challenges from anthropogenic factors, our research provides the groundwork for prioritizing regions and taxa for conservation, especially with the goal of preserving the legacies of our biosphere's evolutionary history.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

将全球生物多样性划分为生物地理区域,对于理解全球尺度的生态和进化过程对物种组合的影响以及确定优先保护区域至关重要。然而,由于缺乏全球物种分布的综合数据,对许多具有生态、经济和保护意义的分类群进行精细的生物地理区划是不可能的。利用最近发表的一份系统发育和世界各地超过10000种蝴蝶的新策划的本地范围地图,我们利用系统发育不相似性描绘了世界蝴蝶的生物地理区域。我们发现了19个不同的系统划分区域(系统区域)嵌套在6个领域。区域边界可以通过现代温度和降水季节性的空间转换来预测,但历史气候变化也在更深层次(领域)边界上留下了明显的指纹。我们使用具有重要文化和生态意义的昆虫群体来扩展我们对历史和当代因素如何驱动地球上生物谱系分布的理解。由于昆虫和全球生物多样性普遍面临着来自人为因素的前所未有的挑战,我们的研究为优先保护区域和分类群提供了基础,特别是为了保护我们生物圈进化历史的遗产。这篇文章是讨论会议议题“弯曲自然恢复的曲线:以乔治娜梅斯的遗产为基础建设生物多样性的未来”的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of limits to adaptation on population and community persistence in a changing environment. 适应限制对人口和社区在变化环境中的持久性的影响。
IF 5.4 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0322
Luis-Miguel Chevin, Jon Bridle

A key issue in predicting how ecosystems will respond to environmental change is understanding why populations and communities are able to live and reproduce in some parts of ecological and geographical space, but not in others. The limits to adaptation that cause ecological niches to vary in position and width across taxa and environmental contexts determine how communities and ecosystems emerge from selection on phenotypes and genomes. Ecological trade-offs mean that phenotypes can only be optimal in some environments unless these trade-offs can be reshaped through evolution. However, the amount and rate of evolution are limited by genetic architectures, developmental systems (including phenotypic plasticity) and the legacies of recent evolutionary history. Here, we summarize adaptive limits and their ecological consequences in time (evolutionary rescue) and space (species' range limits), relating theoretical predictions to empirical tests. We then highlight key avenues for future research in this area, from better connections between evolution and demography to analysing the genomic architecture of adaptation, the dynamics of plasticity and interactions between the biotic and abiotic environment. Progress on these questions will help us understand when and where evolution and phenotypic plasticity will allow species and communities to persist in the face of rapid environmental change.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

预测生态系统如何对环境变化作出反应的一个关键问题是理解为什么人口和社区能够在生态和地理空间的某些部分生活和繁殖,而在其他部分却不能。导致生态位在不同分类群和环境背景中的位置和宽度变化的适应限制决定了群落和生态系统如何从表型和基因组的选择中产生。生态权衡意味着表现型只能在某些环境中达到最优,除非这些权衡可以通过进化来重塑。然而,进化的数量和速度受到遗传结构、发育系统(包括表型可塑性)和近期进化史遗产的限制。在这里,我们总结了适应极限及其在时间(进化拯救)和空间(物种范围限制)上的生态后果,并将理论预测与实证测试联系起来。然后,我们强调了该领域未来研究的关键途径,从进化和人口统计学之间更好的联系,到分析适应的基因组结构,可塑性的动态以及生物和非生物环境之间的相互作用。这些问题的进展将帮助我们了解进化和表型可塑性何时何地将使物种和群落在面对快速的环境变化时持续存在。这篇文章是讨论会议议题“弯曲自然恢复的曲线:以乔治娜梅斯的遗产为基础建设生物多样性的未来”的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
An African perspective to biodiversity conservation in the twenty-first century. 21世纪非洲对生物多样性保护的看法。
IF 5.4 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0443
Bezeng S Bezeng, Gabriel Ameka, Chia Michelle Valérie Angui, Laura Atuah, Fortuné Azihou, Yanis Bouchenak-Khelladi, Frank Carlisle, Bi Tra Serges Doubi, Orou G Gaoue, Wenceslas Gatarabirwa, Consolata Gitau, Craig Hilton-Taylor, Alex Hipkiss, Rodrigue Idohou, Beth A Kaplin, Lucy Kemp, Jacqueline S Mbawine, Vincent Logah, Paul Matiku, Paul Kariuki Ndang'ang'a, Eric D Nana, Onella N N Mundi, Erasmus H Owusu, Jon Paul Rodríguez, Hanneline Smit-Robinson, Kowiyou Yessoufou, Vincent Savolainen

Africa boasts high biodiversity while also being home to some of the largest and fastest-growing human populations. Although the current environmental footprint of Africa is low compared to other continents, the population of Africa is estimated at around 1.5 billion inhabitants, representing nearly 18% of the world's total population. Consequently, Africa's rich biodiversity is under threat, yet only 19% of the landscape and 17% of the seascape are under any form of protection. To effectively address this issue and align with the Convention on Biological Diversity's ambitious '30 by 30' goal, which seeks to protect 30% of the world's land and oceans by 2030, substantial funding and conservation measures are urgently required. In response to this critical challenge, as scientists and conservationists working in Africa, we propose five recommendations for future directions aimed at enhancing biodiversity conservation for the betterment of African society: (i) accelerate data collection, data sharing and analytics for informed policy and decision-making; (ii) innovate education and capacity building for future generations; (iii) enhance and expand protected areas, ecological networks and foundational legal frameworks; (iv) unlock creative funding channels for cutting-edge conservation initiatives; and (v) integrate indigenous and local knowledge into forward-thinking conservation strategies. By implementing these recommendations, we believe Africa can make significant strides towards preserving its unique biodiversity, while fostering a healthier society, and contributing to global conservation efforts.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

非洲拥有高度的生物多样性,同时也是人口最多、增长最快的一些地区的家园。尽管与其他大陆相比,非洲目前的环境足迹较低,但非洲人口估计约为15亿,占世界总人口的近18%。因此,非洲丰富的生物多样性受到威胁,但只有19%的景观和17%的海景受到某种形式的保护。为了有效解决这一问题,并与《生物多样性公约》雄心勃勃的“30 by 30”目标保持一致,即到2030年保护世界30%的陆地和海洋,迫切需要大量资金和保护措施。为了应对这一严峻挑战,作为在非洲工作的科学家和保护主义者,我们就加强生物多样性保护以改善非洲社会的未来方向提出了五点建议:(i)加快数据收集、数据共享和分析,以促进知情的政策和决策;(二)为子孙后代创新教育和能力建设;(三)加强和扩大保护区、生态网络和基本法律框架;(iv)开辟创新的资助渠道,推行先进的保育措施;(v)将土著和地方知识纳入前瞻性的保护战略。通过执行这些建议,我们认为非洲可以在保护其独特的生物多样性方面取得重大进展,同时促进一个更健康的社会,并为全球保护努力作出贡献。这篇文章是讨论会议议题“弯曲自然恢复的曲线:以乔治娜梅斯的遗产为基础建设生物多样性的未来”的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
LIFE: A metric for mapping the impact of land-cover change on global extinctions. 生命:绘制土地覆盖变化对全球物种灭绝影响的度量。
IF 5.4 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0327
Alison Eyres, Thomas S Ball, Michael Dales, Tom Swinfield, Andy Arnell, Daniele Baisero, América Paz Durán, Jonathan M H Green, Rhys E Green, Anil Madhavapeddy, Andrew Balmford

Human-driven habitat loss is recognized as the greatest cause of the biodiversity crisis, yet to date we lack robust, spatially explicit metrics quantifying the impacts of anthropogenic changes in habitat extent on species' extinctions. Existing metrics either fail to consider species identity or focus solely on recent habitat losses. The persistence score approach developed by Durán et al. (Durán et al. 2020 Methods Ecol. Evol. 11, 910-921 (doi:10.1111/2041-210X.13427) represented an important development by combining species' ecologies and land-cover data while considering the cumulative and non-linear impact of past habitat loss on species' probability of extinction. However, it is computationally demanding, limiting its global use and application. Here we couple the persistence score approach with high-performance computing to generate global maps of what we term the LIFE (Land-cover change Impacts on Future Extinctions) metric for 30 875 species of terrestrial vertebrates at 1 arc-min resolution (3.4 km2 at the equator). These maps provide quantitative estimates, for the first time, of the marginal changes in the expected number of extinctions (both increases and decreases) caused by converting remaining natural vegetation to agriculture, and restoring farmland to natural habitat. We demonstrate statistically that this approach integrates information on species richness, endemism and past habitat loss. Our resulting maps can be used at scales from 0.5-1000 km2 and offer unprecedented opportunities to estimate the impact on extinctions of diverse actions that affect change in land cover, from individual dietary choices through to global protected area development.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

人类驱动的栖息地丧失被认为是造成生物多样性危机的最大原因,但迄今为止,我们缺乏强有力的、空间上明确的指标来量化栖息地范围的人为变化对物种灭绝的影响。现有的衡量标准要么没有考虑物种特征,要么只关注最近的栖息地丧失。持久性评分方法由Durán et al. (Durán et al. 2020)开发。进化,11,910-921 (doi:10.1111/2041-210X.13427)代表了一个重要的发展,它结合了物种生态和土地覆盖数据,同时考虑了过去栖息地丧失对物种灭绝概率的累积和非线性影响。然而,它的计算要求很高,限制了它的全球使用和应用。在这里,我们将持久性评分方法与高性能计算相结合,以1弧分分辨率(赤道3.4平方公里)为30875种陆生脊椎动物生成我们称之为LIFE(土地覆盖变化对未来灭绝的影响)度量的全球地图。这些地图首次对剩余的自然植被转化为农业和将农田恢复为自然栖息地所造成的预期灭绝数量(增加和减少)的边际变化提供了定量估计。我们从统计上证明,这种方法综合了物种丰富度、地方性和过去栖息地丧失的信息。我们得到的地图可以在0.5-1000平方公里的范围内使用,并提供了前所未有的机会来估计影响土地覆盖变化的各种行动对灭绝的影响,从个人饮食选择到全球保护区的发展。这篇文章是讨论会议议题“弯曲自然恢复的曲线:以乔治娜梅斯的遗产为基础建设生物多样性的未来”的一部分。
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Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
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