Thermoplastic polyolefin (TPO) is widely used in automotive, waterproofing, and electrical applications due to its excellent mechanical properties, weather resistance, and chemical corrosion resistance. With the advancing refinement of solar technology, building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) urgently require enhanced bonding strength and durability at the adhesive interface between the TPO base layer and silicone adhesive. This study proposes a modification strategy using plasma treatment to alter the surface chemistry of TPO and improve its interaction with silicone adhesive, thereby constructing a robust and durable bonded interface. Furthermore, a computational model for predicting the service life of adhesive joints under complex external field coupling was established. The results demonstrate that the bonding strength at the interface increased from 0.23 MPa for untreated TPO to 1.25 MPa for plasma-modified TPO, while the lap shear strength improved from 0.42 MPa to 1.84 MPa. Numerical simulations and aging tests were employed to develop a generalized Eyring model for predicting the service life of the adhesive structure under combined stress-humidity-thermal conditions. The model achieved an accuracy of 98%, and the predicted service life of the joint under 45 °C and 30% RH was 18.17 years, meeting practical application requirements. This research provides theoretical support for the design of bonding strength and durability in BIPV interfaces, the formulation of engineering maintenance strategies, and the optimization of lifetime prediction standards, thereby contributing to the long-term safe operation of BIPV under the dual‑carbon goals.
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