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Intraregional demographic disparities: The case of the Southeastern Serbia (1980-2017) 区域内人口差异:以塞尔维亚东南部为例(1980-2017)
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/zmsdn1969037p
G. Penev
Rather pronounced differences among the republics and provinces were among the main characteristics of the population development in the former socialist Yugoslavia. After the dissolution of the federal state, all the newly formed states were demographically less heterogeneous and changes over time led to the elimination of the differences among them. The current political reality has caused the Republic of Serbia (excluding Kosovo and Metohija) to become more or less homogenous area in demographic terms. The differences still exist and they are specifically pronounced in some smaller regional units. The region of Southeastern Serbia, consisting of five districts (Jablanicki, Nisavski, Pirotski, Pcinjski, Toplicki) attracts special attention. It includes municipalities that are demographically rather heterogenous and on republic level they have minimum or maximum values of the main demographic indicators of fertility, mortality, migration and age structure. The paper presents the current demographic situation in Southeastern Serbia, as well as the changes that took place after 1980 on the municipal level. It is concluded that they have led to the greater demographic homogenization of that area. Such changes create the conditions for a more effective population policy. At the same time, so far presented intraregional differences require differentiated measures at the local community level, adapted to their specific needs. Also, the paper points to real difficulties in collecting statistical data, as well as to limitations and caution regarding the interpretation of results.
各共和国和各省之间相当明显的差异是前社会主义南斯拉夫人口发展的主要特点之一。在联邦国家解体后,所有新成立的州在人口上的异质性都减少了,随着时间的推移,变化导致了它们之间差异的消除。目前的政治现实使塞尔维亚共和国(不包括科索沃和梅托希亚)在人口方面或多或少成为同质地区。这种差异仍然存在,而且在一些较小的区域单位中尤为明显。塞尔维亚东南部地区由五个区(雅布拉尼茨基、尼萨夫斯基、皮罗茨基、皮辛斯基、托普利茨基)组成,特别引人注意。它包括人口结构相当不同的城市,在共和国一级,它们的生育率、死亡率、移徙和年龄结构等主要人口指标的值最低或最高。本文介绍了塞尔维亚东南部目前的人口状况,以及1980年以后在市政一级发生的变化。结论是,它们导致了该地区更大的人口同质化。这些变化为更有效的人口政策创造了条件。与此同时,迄今为止出现的区域内差异要求在地方社区一级采取不同的措施,以适应其具体需要。此外,论文指出了收集统计数据的实际困难,以及对结果解释的限制和谨慎。
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引用次数: 0
From the “personal dossier” of dr. Adolf Hempt: From school time to the retirement 从阿道夫·亨普特博士的“个人档案”:从上学到退休
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/zmsdn1970195b
Snežana Božanić, Ana Elaković-Nenadović
The paper analyzes the professional movements, the scientific and professional work of Dr. Adolf Hempt, one of the leading rabiologists in Yugoslavia and in the world. The research is based on the well-preserved and unexplored personal dossier of Dr. Adolf Hempt, which is kept in the Archive of Vojvodina (Novi Sad). From the rich source of material, the authors selected the documents that partircularly highlight his life in Lukavac, then certificates of his scientific and professional engagement in Vienna, Paris and Budapest (1910-1912), testimony about the preparations for his participation in the First International Conference on Rabies, and many letters written by Hempt himself. His Curriculum Vitae of 26 August, 1921, and two copies of Official gazette (from 1926 and 1932) should be particularly mentioned. The original material is in Serbian, German and Latin. Dr. Hempt lived or spent longer or shorter periods of his life, researching and improving himself, in Novi Sad, Sarajevo, Graz, Munich, Vienna, Gross-Enzersdorf, Lukavac, Paris, and Budapest. His professional career can be tracked through several stages. He was a military doctor in peace (1898-1905) and at war (1914-1918). His arrival in Lukavac coincides with the socio-economic development and the rise of this small town. He worked here as a factory, municipal, and railway doctor (1905-1921). Working on the eradication of infectious diseases and epidemics, he left an indelible mark on the history of health care and culture in Bosnia and Herzegovina. From 1908 until the beginning of the First World War, he was engaged in the launch of the Pasteur Institute in Bosnia and Herzegovina. After he moved to Novi Sad, as a founder and administrator of the Pasteur Institute, he wrote scientific papers, travelled and explored. This paper deals with a series of lesser known and unknown facts which complements and illuminates the biography of Dr. Adolf Hempt.
本文分析了南斯拉夫乃至世界著名的狂犬病专家阿道夫·亨普特博士的职业运动、科学和专业工作。这项研究是基于保存完好且未被探索的阿道夫·亨普特博士的个人档案,该档案保存在伏伊伏丁那(诺维萨德)档案馆。从丰富的资料来源中,作者选择了特别突出他在卢卡瓦茨生活的文件,然后是他在维也纳,巴黎和布达佩斯(1910-1912)从事科学和专业工作的证书,关于他参加第一届国际狂犬病会议的准备证词,以及亨普特本人写的许多信件。特别要提到的是他1921年8月26日的个人简历和两份官方公报(1926年和1932年)。原始材料是塞尔维亚语、德语和拉丁语。亨普特博士在诺维萨德、萨拉热窝、格拉茨、慕尼黑、维也纳、格罗斯-恩泽斯多夫、卢卡瓦茨、巴黎和布达佩斯生活或长或短,研究和提高自己。他的职业生涯可以分为几个阶段。他在和平时期(1898-1905)和战争时期(1914-1918)都是一名军医。他来到卢卡瓦茨时,恰逢这个小镇的社会经济发展和崛起。1905-1921年,他在这里当过工厂医生、市政医生和铁路医生。他致力于消灭传染病和流行病,在波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的保健和文化史上留下了不可磨灭的印记。从1908年到第一次世界大战开始,他致力于在波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那建立巴斯德研究所。在他搬到诺维萨德之后,作为巴斯德研究所的创始人和管理者,他写了科学论文,旅行和探索。本文处理了一系列鲜为人知和未知的事实,这些事实补充和阐明了阿道夫·亨普特博士的传记。
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引用次数: 0
Тhe impact of Werner Sombart`s Merchants and Heroes on the conception of geopolitical dualism of tellurocracy and thalassocracy Тhe维尔纳·桑巴特的《商人与英雄》对地缘政治二元论的影响
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/zmsdn1971423g
М Aleksandar Gajic
This paper examines the connection between the war pamphlet ?Merchants and Heroes? (1915) of Werner Sombart, one of the greatest European sociologists of the 20th century, and geopolitical theories about the conflict between land and sea powers. Although Sombart?s pamphlet emphasizes the spiritual-moral and cultural-sociological dualism between Germany and England in the First World War, where the first represents the characteristics of heroes and idealists and the other of merchants and opportunists, the paper shows that this conflict was primarily a war for the territories - a geopolitical conflict, and, only secondary, a cultural-normative conflict. Historical anal?ysis shows that German geostrategic actions before the Great War (in their colonial policy) and during the Great War were not in opposition, but very similar to Great Britain`s policies. Therefore, it can be assumed that the war between Germany and Great Britain 435 broke out because of the rivalries based on their similarities, both in actions and pretensions. Moreover, Wilhelmine Germany was almost copying Britain?s colonial expansion, so it became the greatest threat to Great Britain`s geostrategic interest. Further, the research established the links between the views of Sombart and Karl Schmitt and, later, with the oversized opposition between land and sea powers as ?the second law of geopolitics? in the views of some geopolitical thinkers during the 20th century. The paper shows that the sources of both views are the same and that they lie in the German romantic-idealistic youth subculture movements at the turn of the 20th century adopted in academic circles before the Great War, primarily in the philosophy of Kurt Hiller and sociology of George Simmel, from which they were accepted by Werner Sombart.
本文考察了战争小册子《商人与英雄》之间的联系。20世纪欧洲最伟大的社会学家之一维尔纳·桑巴特(Werner Sombart)的著作(1915),以及关于陆地和海洋大国之间冲突的地缘政治理论。尽管桑巴特?在第一次世界大战中,德国和英国之间的精神道德和文化社会学二元论,其中第一个代表英雄和理想主义者的特征,另一个代表商人和机会主义者的特征,本文表明,这场冲突主要是一场领土战争-地缘政治冲突,其次是文化规范冲突。历史肛交?分析表明,德国在第一次世界大战前(在其殖民政策中)和第一次世界大战期间的地缘战略行动并不对立,而是与英国的政策非常相似。因此,我们可以认为,德国和英国之间的战争爆发,是因为两国在行动和表象上都有相似之处。此外,威廉时代的德国几乎是在模仿英国?因此,它成为了对英国地缘战略利益的最大威胁。此外,该研究建立了桑巴特和卡尔·施密特的观点之间的联系,以及后来将陆地和海洋大国之间的过度对立作为“地缘政治第二定律”。在20世纪一些地缘政治思想家的观点中。本文认为,这两种观点的来源是一致的,它们都是在第一次世界大战前学术界所接受的20世纪之交德国浪漫主义-理想主义青年亚文化运动中产生的,主要是库尔特·希勒的哲学和乔治·齐美尔的社会学,并被维尔纳·桑巴特所接受。
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引用次数: 0
School climate: Assessment and improvement 学校风气:评估与改善
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/zmsdn1972507d
Masa Djurisic
In addition to defining the concept of school climate and school climate dimensions, an important segment of the conceptualization of the school climate research is also school climate improvement, which plays an important role in the development and school reform. Process of improving the school climate is a rather complex process, which involves an assessment of the school climate, analysis of the results obtained by evaluation, determination of priority areas, creation of action plans and the selection of interventions for improvement. Recognizing the need for improvement is the starting point. After assessment and analysis of the current climate in a school, the areas that need to be improved are defined, so as to establish goals, create programs, activities and interventions. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to highlight the importance of the process of improving the school climate. Given that school climate involves a broad context in which the process of education takes place, creating a positive atmosphere in the school aims to improve school work. Maintain positive interpersonal relationships, improving the teaching, reducing the student?s problematic behavior, opening the school to the family and local community as well as the effective management of the school, these are the objectives that the school should achieve in the process of their improvement.
除了定义学校气候和学校气候维度的概念外,学校气候研究概念化的一个重要环节也是学校气候改善,它在学校发展和学校改革中起着重要作用。改善学校气氛的过程是一个相当复杂的过程,包括对学校气氛的评估、对评估结果的分析、确定优先领域、制定行动计划和选择改善干预措施。认识到改进的需要是出发点。在对学校当前的环境进行评估和分析后,定义需要改进的领域,从而建立目标,创建方案,活动和干预措施。因此,本文的目的是强调改善学校气氛过程的重要性。鉴于学校氛围涉及教育过程发生的广泛背景,在学校创造积极的氛围旨在改善学校工作。保持积极的人际关系,提高教学,减少学生?学校向家庭和当地社区开放以及学校的有效管理,这些都是学校在改善过程中应该达到的目标。
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引用次数: 0
Language problem in Ukraine: Between linguistics and politics 乌克兰的语言问题:在语言学和政治之间
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/zmsdn1971375b
R. Bukvic
The paper considers a language problem in Ukraine, which escalated in the still ongoing crisis and was one of the basic grounds for the uprising and armed conflict in the southeastern part of the country. It presents the development of the problem in the context of independent Ukraine, as well as its genesis and development in the period that preceded it. Finally, it considers surzyk, a specific mixed language phenomenon, which has appeared and developed like other communication tools in places of contact between two or many language communities (such as pidgin and creole languages, for example). In the context of the current political climate, the possibility of resolving the status of the Russian language and surzyk seems uncertain.
本文考虑了乌克兰的一个语言问题,这个问题在持续不断的危机中不断升级,是该国东南部起义和武装冲突的基本原因之一。它介绍了这个问题在独立的乌克兰背景下的发展,以及它在之前时期的起源和发展。最后,它考虑了surzyk,一种特定的混合语言现象,它像其他交流工具一样在两种或多种语言社区(例如皮钦语和克里奥尔语)的接触场所出现和发展。在当前政治气候的背景下,解决俄语和苏尔日克语地位的可能性似乎不确定。
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引用次数: 0
Innovative written expression of youth in Serbia 塞尔维亚青年的创新书面表达
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/zmsdn1972517p
K. Perčić, Lazar Vukadinović
When we refer to the language of a particular nation, we need to take into account the modern trends of globalization as well as the urge to preserve the cultural identity and language. With the appearance of the social networks, followed by an increase in frequency of communication on the networks, there arise anglicisms and other abbreviated words in writing, which are typical amongst younger generations. The language used on the social media illustrates to a great extent the creativity of its authors, but at the same time an increase in the mistakes and irregularities in comparison to the standard language. An empirical research on this topic has been conducted during May and June 2018, with a sample of 1,148 students of undergraduate studies in the Republic of Serbia. The aim of the research was to establish to what extent they use jargon in the form of abbreviations in Serbian and English in their everyday communication on the social networks, which constitutes a part of the written language used by younger generations. It was also examined the frequency of (un)regularity in the writing of the Latin letters Dj, Dz, S, Z, C, C, while chatting, as well as the particular writing habits depending on the sources used for writing (such as paper, PC, mobile phone). The research has shown that 80% of the students in the Republic of Serbia use frequently a pen to write on a paper, hence a larger percentage of students prefer the traditional mode of writing opposed to the digital writing. The students more often use the English keyboard on their PCs, which means that they type the Latin characters in Serbian without diacritics, and 24% of the students occasionally need time to think how to write a particular letter on paper. About 21% of the students have stated that whilst writing with a pen on a piece of paper they writ? dj instead of dj; dz instead of dz. Another important fact is that over 40% of the students use ?jargon? abbreviations in Serbian whilst writing, and the percentage of the students that use the abbreviations in English constitutes to 26%, which should not be neglected in particularly since 40% frequently use anglicisms in their expression. To the knowledge of the authors of this paper, there were no researches done on this topic in the Republic of Serbia in particularly focusing on the university students.
当我们提到一个特定民族的语言时,我们需要考虑到全球化的现代趋势以及保护文化身份和语言的冲动。随着社交网络的出现,随着网络上交流频率的增加,出现了英语和其他缩略词的写作,这在年轻一代中很典型。社交媒体上使用的语言在很大程度上说明了作者的创造力,但与此同时,与标准语言相比,错误和不规范的情况有所增加。在2018年5月和6月期间,对塞尔维亚共和国的1148名本科生进行了关于这一主题的实证研究。该研究的目的是确定他们在社交网络上的日常交流中使用塞尔维亚语和英语缩写形式的行话的程度,这些行话构成了年轻一代使用的书面语言的一部分。该研究还调查了聊天时使用拉丁字母Dj、Dz、S、Z、C、C的频率(不)规律,以及根据写作来源(如纸张、电脑、手机)的特定写作习惯。研究表明,塞尔维亚共和国80%的学生经常使用钢笔在纸上写字,因此更大比例的学生更喜欢传统的写作模式,而不是数字写作。学生们更多地使用电脑上的英语键盘,这意味着他们用塞尔维亚语输入拉丁字符而不使用变音符号,24%的学生偶尔需要时间思考如何在纸上写下特定的字母。大约21%的学生表示,当他们用笔在纸上写字时,他们会写什么?用DJ代替DJ;用Dz代替Dz。另一个重要的事实是,超过40%的学生使用术语。在塞尔维亚语中使用缩写,而在英语中使用缩写的学生占26%,这一比例不应被忽视,特别是因为40%的学生经常在表达中使用英语。据本文作者所知,在塞尔维亚共和国没有关于这一主题的研究,特别关注大学生。
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引用次数: 1
General and Chinese foreign direct investments in Serbian economy and economic development 一般和中国对外直接投资对塞尔维亚经济和经济的发展
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/zmsdn1971361s
N. Stanojević, Zoran Jovanović
This paper examines the impact of Chinese investments in the infrastructure facilities within the Belt and Road Initiative on the Serbian economy. The research objectives are to measure the impact of the general foreign direct investments and the Chinese foreign direct investments on the key indicators of the Serbian economy, to assess their impact on the Serbian economy in general, and to compare their effects. The initial hypothesis is that the effects of the Chinese foreign direct investments on infrastructure are significantly more favourable than foreign direct investments originating in other countries, primarily due to the sectors they are implemented, and the different approach of Chinese investors, which implies the mutual benefit of partners and long-term interests in a particular country or region. The impact of the Chinese and general foreign direct investments on several key economic indicators of the Serbian economy is measured separately and compared. Since there are several dependent variables involved in the correlation, the Multiple Variable Analysis is used. The statistical procedure includes two tests of the statistical significance of the estimated correlation: P-value, as a part of Multiple Variable Analysis, and F-test, which is commonly used for small samples. The results show much stronger and more positive impact of the Chinese investments than general foreign direct investments, but also point to the direction of a change, such as increasing of import of goods and services, the reduction of unemployment, and the increase in the employment rate, as well as the dege of openness of the economy. Some results can be considered as the general effects of joining the Belt and Road Initiative, that is, they can have great significance for all countries on one of the many directions of the new Silk Road.
本文考察了中国在“一带一路”倡议下的基础设施投资对塞尔维亚经济的影响。研究目的是衡量一般外国直接投资和中国外国直接投资对塞尔维亚经济关键指标的影响,评估它们对塞尔维亚经济的总体影响,并比较它们的影响。最初的假设是,中国对外直接投资对基础设施的影响明显比来自其他国家的外国直接投资更有利,这主要是由于它们实施的行业,以及中国投资者的不同方式,这意味着合作伙伴的互惠互利和特定国家或地区的长期利益。中国和一般外国直接投资对塞尔维亚经济的几个关键经济指标的影响分别进行了衡量和比较。由于相关中涉及多个因变量,因此使用多变量分析。统计过程包括对估计相关性的统计显著性的两种检验:p值,作为多变量分析的一部分,以及f检验,通常用于小样本。结果表明,中国的投资比一般的外国直接投资具有更强和更积极的影响,但也指出了一个变化的方向,如商品和服务进口的增加,失业率的降低,就业率的提高,以及经济的开放程度。一些结果可以被认为是加入“一带一路”倡议的一般效应,即它们对新丝绸之路众多方向之一的所有国家都具有重大意义。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of internal communication and employees’ identification with the organization on motivation 内部沟通和员工对组织的认同对激励的影响
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/zmsdn1970213m
V. Milanović, Katarina Radosavljevic-Njegic
Motivation can have a great impact on the improvement of employees and the organizational performance. Therefore, it is important to examine which factors contribute to the employees? motivation. Previous researches in the field of organizational behavior rarely examined in which way communication affects employees? motivation. Relying on previous empirical research, social identity theory and self-categorization theory, a model of the impact of internal communication on the employees? motivation through their identification with the organization was formulated. The model assumes that there is a direct and positive impact of internal communication on employees? identification with the organization, as well as the direct and positive impact of internal communication on employees? motivation. Additionally, it assumes indirect effect of the internal communication on the employees? motivation through their identification. Communication was observed through upward and downward communication (information) flows, and through superiors? communication with the emphasis on listening, which all reflect the communication climate. Identification was observed through the identification of the employees with goals, mission and vision, and the culture of the organization. The level of motivation was measured as the level in which employees feel more secure, the level in which they feel that they belong to the organization, and the level of their self-confirmation. The model was tested on a sample of 144 employees in three different organizations operating in the territory of Belgrade (Republic of Serbia). The observed organizations were medium-sized firms that are operating in the field of banking, trade, and higher education. The data were collected through on-line survey. The survey was conducted in the last quarter of 2018. The statistical method used was structural equation modeling through partial squares (PLS-SEM). The results of the conducted research revealed a positive and statistically significant relationship between internal communication and the level of employees? identification with the organization. It was also confirmed that the employees? identification with the organization directly and positively influences the employees? motivation. In addition, the results indicate that internal communication contributes to better employees? motivation, and it was found that one part of this impact is accomplished directly, while the other part is accomplished indirectly, through the increase of the employees? identification with the organization. Based on the results, recommendations to managers are proposed, as well as the guidelines for future research.
激励对员工和组织绩效的提高有很大的影响。因此,重要的是要检查哪些因素有助于员工?动机。以往的组织行为学研究很少考察沟通是如何影响员工的。动机。依托以往的实证研究,结合社会认同理论和自我分类理论,构建了内部沟通对员工影响的模型。通过他们对组织的认同而形成的动机。该模型假设内部沟通对员工有直接和积极的影响。对组织的认同,以及内部沟通对员工的直接和积极影响?动机。此外,它假设内部沟通对员工的间接影响?动机通过他们的认同。通过向上和向下的沟通(信息)流动,以及通过上级?交际中注重倾听,这些都反映了交际的氛围。认同是通过认同员工的目标、使命和愿景,以及组织的文化来观察的。动机的水平被衡量为员工感到更安全的水平,他们感到自己属于组织的水平,以及他们自我确认的水平。在贝尔格莱德(塞尔维亚共和国)境内开展业务的三个不同组织的144名雇员样本中对该模型进行了测试。调查对象是银行、贸易、高等教育等领域的中型企业。数据采用在线调查的方式收集。该调查是在2018年最后一个季度进行的。统计方法采用偏平方结构方程模型(PLS-SEM)。所进行的研究结果显示,内部沟通与员工水平之间存在统计学上显著的正相关关系。对组织的认同。这也证实了员工?对组织的认同直接而积极地影响着员工?动机。此外,结果表明,内部沟通有助于更好的员工?动机,我们发现这种影响的一部分是直接完成的,而另一部分是间接完成的,通过增加员工?对组织的认同。根据研究结果,提出了对管理者的建议,以及未来研究的指导方针。
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引用次数: 1
Zur lage des serbischen philosophischen denkens: Was kommt nach der praxis-philosophie? (Eine betrachtung vor dem hintergrund des dialogs mit den thesen von Michailo Markowitsch) 塞尔维亚哲学思潮:在实践哲学之后又会怎样?讨论的主题是:迈克尔·马尔科维奇的写作
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/zmsdn1971437j
Dragan Jakovljević
Ausgehend von enstprechenden Einsch?tzungen von M. Markowitsch, werden in diesem Aufsatz mehrfach relevante Aspekte der aktuellen Lage der serbischen Philosophie beleuchtet. So wird das Verh?ltnis zum Erbe der Praxis-Philosophie betrachtet, mit kritischer Untersuchung von Markowitschs? Thesen, sowie dem Verweis auf weitere m?gliche Perspektiven zur Entfaltung des serbischen philosophischen Denkens. Parallel dazu wird eine Bilanz aus den bisherigen Leistungen gezogen, wobei B. Petronijewitsch als der weiterhin bedeutendste Autor ausgesondert wird. Zugleich werden das Thema des Provinzialismus und des Epigonentums sowie die M?glichkeit einer Affirmation auf internationaler Ebene er?ffnet. Dabei wird zugleich auf die M?glichkeit der Sch?pfung einer christlichen Philosophie orthodoxen Zuschnitts, als auch auf die des Anschlie?ens an bestimmte, heute aktuelle philosophische Str?mungen in der Welt hingewiesen. Letztlich wird die St?rkung des kritischen fachlichen Bewu?tseins, der freie Austausch und die Konkurrenz verschiedener Autoren an den akademischen Einrichtungen durch Verdr?ngung von bestimmten Anomalien und die F?rderung internationaler Wettbewerbsf?higkeit bef?rwortet. ?ber solche Fragen gilt es, unverz?glich einen Dialog aufzunehmen und entschlossen fortzuf?hren.
从活人开始?本论文为马尔科维奇的精神注入了很多前线。歪了?实践哲学的灵感我的新设计,参考m?塞尔维亚哲学的可能?与此同时,社方正对照以往的各项成就,确定了波楚尼维奇仍是知名作家的纪录。同时这个地区的狭隘,古希腊文的结尾也是“M”你有机会在这一级的确认吗?转到M?什…你知道它的作用吗?最近的哲学展览项目?所有的权利这是最后一次?rob专业知识?韦德尔在学术机构中的不同作者之间的自由交流和竞争?以及F是怎么回事?禁止国际竞争higkeit bef ? rwortet .你能回答这些问题吗?一个对话并且决心继续下去
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引用次数: 0
Difference in fertility between women with and without tertiary education in Serbia 塞尔维亚受过高等教育和没有受过高等教育的妇女之间生育率的差异
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/zmsdn1970245m
Natalija Mirić
This paper points to the relative importance of childlessness (childlessness effect), postponement of motherhood to later ages (age composition effect), and fertility rates conditional upon age at entry into motherhood (rates effect) in explaining overall difference in the level of fertility between women with and without tertiary education. The author estimates these indicators for three age cohorts, 45-49, 50-54, and 55-59, and thus show whether and how the relative contribution of these three effects has changed over time. The decomposition method based on the data from the Census of Population, Households and Dwellings (2011) is used in this paper. The results indicate that the difference in fertility between women with and without tertiary education is 0.35, on average for the analyzed age cohorts. Decomposition method shows that childlessness effect and age composition effect have significantly contributed with over 80% to this difference. This finding suggests that postponing of childbearing among women with tertiary education has a continuous, dominant importance in the deterministic basis of the educational differentiation of fertility. On the other side, a weaker rates effect (20-23%) is evident in all age cohorts. Reason for this is an absence of fertility recuperation among women with tertiary education (in contrary to some European countries), thus reflecting the same (not so favorable) socio-economic and institutional context of life in which all women realize reproduction.
本文指出,在解释受过高等教育和没有受过高等教育的妇女之间生育率水平的总体差异时,不生育(不生育效应)、推迟生育年龄(年龄构成效应)和以生育年龄为条件的生育率(比率效应)的相对重要性。作者估计了45-49岁、50-54岁和55-59岁三个年龄组的这些指标,从而显示了这三种影响的相对贡献是否以及如何随着时间的推移而变化。本文采用的是基于2011年人口、住户和住宅普查数据的分解方法。结果表明,在分析的年龄组中,受过高等教育和没有受过高等教育的妇女的生育率平均差异为0.35。分解方法表明,无子女效应和年龄构成效应对这一差异的贡献显著,超过80%。这一发现表明,受过高等教育的妇女推迟生育在生育率的教育差异的决定性基础上具有持续的、主导的重要性。另一方面,较弱的比率效应(20-23%)在所有年龄组中都很明显。其原因是受过高等教育的妇女没有生育恢复(与一些欧洲国家相反),因此反映了所有妇女实现生育的相同(不太有利的)社会经济和体制生活环境。
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引用次数: 3
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Zbornik Matice Srpske za Likovne Umetnosti-Matica Srpska Journal for Fine Arts
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