Science of the Total Environment最新文献

{"title":"Exposure to ultrafine particles while bicycling in a residential area near Copenhagen International Airport, Denmark: A repeated measures study","authors":"Gonzalo B. Hevia-Ramos,&nbsp;Stéphane Tuffier,&nbsp;Marie L. Bergmann,&nbsp;Jiawei Zhang,&nbsp;Steffen Loft,&nbsp;Zorana J. Andersen,&nbsp;Youn-Hee Lim,&nbsp;Thomas Cole-Hunter","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179474","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Airports are major sources of ultrafine particles (UFP), raising health concerns among people living in immediate proximity. However, little is known about UFP concentrations in residential areas around airports. In this study, we mapped UFP exposure concentrations in a residential area nearby Copenhagen International Airport (CPH).</div><div>Particle number concentrations (PNC) were measured using a portable device during 44 bicycling trips on a fixed route of 8.2 km, on weekdays in July and August 2024. The route was located in an area 4 km north of CPH and tracked using GPS. We investigated PNC spatial variation linking measured data to OpenStreetMap. To compare PNC across different times of the day and wind directions, we used Generalized Additive Models (GAM), adjusted for time trends, hourly flights and meteorological variables.</div><div>We found an overall mean PNC of 7620 pt/cm³ across 44 repeats, with no significant differences between morning and noon trips. Highest means PNC were observed during south wind (11,594 pt/cm³) compared to other wind directions (4189–7069 pt/cm³), showing an increasing gradient of PNC from north to south (∼10,000 to ∼13,000 pt/cm³, respectively) under south wind conditions. We also observed mean PNC of 8151 pt/cm³ across all traffic intersections along the route, with peaks at traffic lights on main roads under south wind, up to 16,442 pt/cm³.</div><div>Our findings suggest that airports, together with road traffic, are a significant source of UFPs near residential neighbourhoods. The diffusion of UFP is influenced primarily by wind direction with graduation by proximity to the airport.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"979 ","pages":"Article 179474"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143863439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The density of virgin, consumer and environmental plastics: An investigation using gas displacement pycnometry","authors":"Andrew Turner ,&nbsp;Katie Jones ,&nbsp;Montserrat Filella","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179457","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179457","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Density is a fundamental property of plastics and is particularly significant in determining the transport and fate of waste plastics that enter aquatic systems. However, densities are rarely determined in the environmental literature and values employed for modelling or impacts are often unsourced or derived from secondary databases. In this study, we employ helium displacement pycnometry to determine the skeletal densities of non-porous plastics whose polymer composition had been established from manufacturer's data, resin codes or Fourier transform infrared spectrometry. Two independent, collaborative laboratories, providing measurements within 3.5 % of each other and with precisions of &lt;1 % (as relative standard deviation), analysed a total of 42 virgin, consumer and environmental plastics consisting of ten common polymer types. Measured densities of plastics in all categories, and most notably for polybutylene terephthalate, polyethylene terephthalate, polypropylene and polyvinyl chloride, were often outside the ranges reported by a comprehensive online resource. Possible reasons for discrepancies include the occurrence of dense additives (evaluated by X-ray fluorescence analysis), the presence of inaccessible microscopic pores below a laminated surface, contamination of the main polymer by a secondary one, and structural changes on weathering. Regardless of precise causes, most results suggest that individual polymers have a broader range of densities than is generally published or considered in the literature. Accordingly, and in particular where buoyancy is critical, more precise, sample-specific measurements are recommended.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"979 ","pages":"Article 179457"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial patterns of soil bacterial communities in grazing areas of Southwest Spain","authors":"Jesús Barrena-González ,&nbsp;Eva Lloret ,&nbsp;Raúl Zornoza ,&nbsp;Francisco Lavado-Contador ,&nbsp;Manuel Pulido","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179516","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179516","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The spatial distribution of soil bacterial communities in agrosilvopastoral systems remains understudied, despite its fundamental role in ecosystem functioning. This study investigates the spatial dynamics of dominant copiotrophic and oligotrophic bacterial phyla in grazing areas of Southwest Spain, focusing on their interactions with land management, soil properties, and environmental covariates. Five management systems; occasional grazing (OG), holistic management (HM), organic farming (OF), conventional rangeland (CR), and conventional grassland (CG) were analyzed across three topographic positions (hilltop, mid-slope, valley bottom), representing a gradient of grazing intensity. A total of 71 soil samples were collected and analyzed using 16S rRNA metabarcoding. Alpha and beta diversity metrics revealed significant shifts in community composition driven by both management and topography, with HM showing higher richness compared to CR and CG. Among dominant phyla, copiotrophic groups such as <em>Proteobacteria</em> and <em>Actinobacteriota</em> were more abundant in upper slope areas and under higher grazing intensity, whereas oligotrophic <em>Verrucomicrobiota</em> was enriched in valley bottoms and under lower grazing pressure. Spatial prediction models based on Random Forest and recursive feature elimination (RFE) identified key environmental drivers, with vegetation indices being more relevant for <em>Proteobacteria</em> and <em>Verrucomicrobiota</em>, and topographic features for <em>Actinobacteriota</em>. RDA and SEM confirmed that animal stocking rate and soil organic matter were major predictors of β-diversity. This study provides novel insights into microbial spatial heterogeneity in Mediterranean grazing systems, highlighting the interplay of management practices, soil characteristics, and topography. The findings underscore the ecological benefits of holistic management in enhancing bacterial diversity and inform strategies for sustainable land use in agrosilvopastoral ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"979 ","pages":"Article 179516"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A multidimensional approach to the decarbonization of the olive oil sector: methodology proposal and case study","authors":"Luca Regni ,&nbsp;Paolo Sdringola ,&nbsp;Biancamaria Torquati ,&nbsp;Nicola Evangelisti ,&nbsp;Massimo Chiorri ,&nbsp;Livia Arcioni ,&nbsp;Primo Proietti","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179460","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179460","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The productive sectors related to agriculture have the potential to contribute significantly to the energy transition. The paper describes an in-depth investigation on the extra virgin olive oil production towards the decarbonization of the sector. A multidimensional approach is applied, integrating surveys on environmental impacts through Life Cycle Assessment and Carbon Footprint, carbon sequestration, carbon balance associated to emissions and removals, and socio-economic impacts via Life Cycle Costing and consumer surveys. The assessment was performed in the different Mediterranean regions, and the paper includes the results from a representative case study in Italy. Focusing on the production of 1 l of olive oil as functional unit, the most impacting technical processes were identified, and cleaner alternatives proposed and implemented. The amount of CO₂ sequestered annually by olive trees was found 1.59 kg/l_oil, comparable to the CO_2eq emitted for oil production – i.e., 1.58 kg/l_oil for a 0.75 l glass bottle, and 1.16 kg/l_oil for a 5 l tin can – and then resulting in a neutral/negative carbon footprint product in the sustainable management scenario. In economic terms the introduction of the low-impact technical process allows to reduce production costs of 270 euros/ha; while the willingness to pay a premium price for the olive oil with Carbon Footprint certification is estimated around 3 € for a 0.75 l glass bottle. The proposed methodology could be extended to other agronomic sectors to reduce carbon emissions, enhance traditional techniques and promote sustainable practices, while also seeking to engage the consumer through transparent certification and communication.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"979 ","pages":"Article 179460"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143863546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Atmospheric drivers of post-monsoon and winter thunderstorms in Central India","authors":"U.V. Murali Krishna,&nbsp;Subrata Kumar Das,&nbsp;Jeni N. Victor","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179432","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179432","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rise in frequency of severe weather events cause significant socio-economic challenges in the Indian sub-continent. Understanding the causative mechanisms driving these heavy rainfall events is still unclear. Using the state-of-the-art C-band Doppler weather radar at Bhopal and reanalysis data, this study explored the storm-scale characteristics and the driving mechanisms of thunderstorms that occurred on 17 October 2021 (post-monsoon thunderstorm) and 06 January 2022 (winter thunderstorm) over Central India. The radar reflectivity exceeds 45 dBZ, indicating intense convection during thunderstorms. The thunderstorm associated with post-monsoon season is deeper (top heights beyond 12 km) compared to winter thunderstorm. The disdrometer observations showed that the winter thunderstorm is very intense reaching upto 158 mm/h with a short duration of about 30-min. Among the two thunderstorms, the post-monsoon thunderstorm is associated with a mesoscale convective system. The atmospheric water vapour transport from the surrounding oceans (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) is a potential contributor to moisture advection. However, the vertical extent of the storm is regulated by the moistening of midtroposphere prior to the thunderstorm. The cyclonic circulation induced by the low-pressure system plays a major role in the vertical development of the thunderstorm during post-monsoon season. In contrast, the horizontal mass convergence between cold air from high latitudes and warm, moist air from the Bay of Bengal is the key to thunderstorm development for the winter case. The present findings would have profound significance in improving the simulations of these heavy rainfall events by the regional climate models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"979 ","pages":"Article 179432"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change and its diverse regional impacts on Greenland's marine biota","authors":"Thomas Gjerluff Ager ,&nbsp;Mikael K. Sejr ,&nbsp;Carlos M. Duarte ,&nbsp;Kenneth D. Mankoff ,&nbsp;Vibe Schourup-Kristensen ,&nbsp;David Boertmann ,&nbsp;Eva Friis Møller ,&nbsp;Jakob Thyrring ,&nbsp;Dorte Krause-Jensen","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179443","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179443","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study quantified climate-driven changes and spatial variability in key environmental drivers over four decades along Greenland's coastal and shelf marine ecosystems and evaluated their impacts on marine biota divided into six regions. We analyzed trends in sea ice concentration and seasonality, sea surface temperatures, salinity, and freshwater inputs from ice discharge and freshwater runoff. West, East, and Southeast Greenland were most impacted by climate change, driven by increasing sea surface temperatures (0.22–0.5 °C decade⁻¹), freshwater inputs (10.14–24.93 Gt yr⁻¹ decade⁻¹), declining sea ice concentrations (3–5.3 % decade⁻¹), and more open water days (10.92–23.9 days decade⁻¹). The Northwest and Northeast regions appeared more resilient due to lower sea surface temperature increases (0.01–0.03 °C decade⁻¹) and sea ice declines (0.5–2.1 % decade⁻¹). Changes in Southwest Greenland were limited to sea surface temperature (0.27 °C decade⁻¹) and freshwater runoff (7.66 Gt yr⁻¹ decade⁻¹) increases since the 1990s. Synthesized evidence from 94 marine biota time series showed 73 exhibiting significant changes, and 37 identified an environmental driver: sea ice (20), temperature (19), and runoff (2). Only four time series considered multiple drivers. Biota time series trends mirrored regional environmental changes; 78 % changed significantly in West, East and Southeast regions combined, 73 % in southwest, and 56 % in the northern regions. Fish, benthic flora, and benthic fauna responses remained unclear due to data gaps, underscoring the need for further research. In conclusion, our findings reveal widespread biological change linked to climate but with distinct regional patterns in environmental drivers and associated responses across Greenland.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"979 ","pages":"Article 179443"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143869188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Life cycle assessment of the Brazilian minipig bred for biomedical research and education: A case study","authors":"Gustavo Fonseca De Almeida ,&nbsp;Ariadna Bàllega ,&nbsp;João Pedro Queiroga Maluf ,&nbsp;M. Andón ,&nbsp;Marta Ruiz-Colmenero ,&nbsp;Montserrat Núñez","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179493","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179493","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Minipigs are gaining significant momentum in biomedical research due to advantages that make them an excellent model for studying human physiology and disease. However, the environmental impacts related to producing and maintaining these animals have received limited attention, as the primary focus has been on complying with strict animal welfare protocols. This paper aimed to estimate the environmental impacts related to the production of a specific breed of miniature pigs in Brazil (Minipig-br1). The methodology used in the study consisted of a life cycle assessment (LCA), considering the full spectrum of the impact categories while focusing on discussing impact categories relevant to pig production systems. The inventory was based on input-output data collected throughout 2022 and was performed at the company Minipig Research and Development in Sao Paulo countryside. A cradle-to-farm gate LCA was performed, also including transportation of the minipigs to the hospital in the capital megacity. Minipigs-br1 was raised on the farm and delivered to the hospital for two purposes: research and education. An economic allocation was applied to estimate the environmental impacts related to each type of use. The functional unit was one live animal delivered to the hospital gate for use in research and education. From the cradle to the hospital gate, a minipig delivered for education emitted 95 kg CO₂ eq. while a minipig used for research emitted 221 CO₂ eq. The main environmental hotspots were feeding the minipigs and manure management with approximately 65 % and 30 %, respectively. Mitigation options are discussed, focusing on input substitution of feed ingredients, system redesign, transport of minipigs, and manure treatment strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"979 ","pages":"Article 179493"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143863545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improved prediction of chlorophyll-a concentrations using advancing graph neural network variants","authors":"Sunghyun Yoon ,&nbsp;Kuk-Hyun Ahn","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179481","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179481","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate estimation of harmful algal blooms is essential for protecting surface water. Chlorophyll-a (<em>Chl-a</em>), commonly used as a proxy for estimating algal concentration, is influenced by a broad range of weather and physicochemical factors that operate across various spatial and temporal scales. This study aims to propose a deep learning (DL)-based framework for long-term <em>Chl-a</em> simulation, consisting of two separate blocks for processing multi-modal sources together: one for incorporating irregularly measured water quality observations and the other for integrating climate data measured at constant time steps. Besides a fully connected network for encoding irregular water quality observations, we benchmark several state-of-the-art graph neural network (GNN) architectures, including ChebNet and Graph Convolutional Network (GCN), for encoding continuous climate data. Specifically, we represent water quality stations as nodes in a graph, model the spatiotemporal dependencies between these nodes, and utilize the learned relationships to predict <em>Chl-a</em> simulations simultaneously across all nodes in the graph. Additionally, we introduce a gating mechanism to integrate the outputs from the two blocks. The performance of advanced GNN models is evaluated using a daily dataset from the upper Han River basins in South Korea. The results indicate that our proposed models are promising, outperforming several baseline models developed for similar objectives with improvements up to 47 % in the R². In particular, the combination of the GCN algorithm with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) in our DL framework achieves superior performance. We then conduct further analyses to assess the effectiveness of the gating mechanism, revealing that it enhances prediction performance by achieving a 12 % improvement in the R² compared to the model without the gating mechanism. We conclude that the proposed GNN-variant framework shows promise as a robust machine learning-based approach for aggregating spatiotemporal information to achieve reliable <em>Chl-a</em> predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"979 ","pages":"Article 179481"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Port Cleaner Trucks and Environmental Justice in the Greater New York Area","authors":"Yeonkyeong Gina Park,&nbsp;H. Oliver Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179396","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179396","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines local air pollution levels in disadvantaged neighborhoods near ports after the adoption of cleaner diesel trucks under the Port Drayage Truck Replacement Programs (TRPs). Using annual air pollutant data and census demographics at the tract level, we estimate changes in air quality through a Difference-in-Differences-in-Differences (DDD) model. Our findings indicate that the impact of TRPs was mixed: near-port Black/African American communities were likely worse off, while near-port Hispanic/Latinos saw improvements. Since 2010, air quality improvements in Greater New York (GNY) were 4.5% greater than in near-port communities. Black-majority tracts near ports experienced 6.4% higher NO₂ than Black-majority tracts in GNY. Within near-port areas, Black-majority tracts had 2.7% higher NO₂ than non-Black-majority tracts. The relative gap between Black and non-Black populations in near-port areas widened by about 2% compared to GNY. Conversely, near-port Hispanic-majority tracts had NO₂ levels similar to GNY Black-majority and near-port non-Hispanic-majority areas, with the relative gap between Hispanic and non-Hispanic populations in near-port areas narrowing by 4% compared to GNY. These disparities highlight the disproportionate benefits and drawbacks of TRPs, underscoring the need for more targeted interventions. To address these inequities, we recommend an integrated policy approach, including interstate collaboration to standardize truck regulations, stricter on-road emission controls in near-port areas, and accelerated adoption of clean technologies like electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. These actions could reduce environmental health disparities and promote environmental justice by addressing the systemic vulnerabilities of near-port communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"979 ","pages":"Article 179396"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trade-offs associated with changing cropping patterns in semi-arid areas of Morocco","authors":"Imane El Fartassi ,&nbsp;Alice E. Milne ,&nbsp;Bader Oulaid ,&nbsp;Youssef Bezrhoud ,&nbsp;Helen Metcalfe ,&nbsp;Vasthi Alonso Chavez ,&nbsp;Kevin Coleman ,&nbsp;Alhousseine Diarra ,&nbsp;Rafiq El Alami ,&nbsp;Jonah Prout ,&nbsp;Toby Waine ,&nbsp;Joanna Zawadzka ,&nbsp;Ron Corstanje","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179492","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179492","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We developed a model-based framework to support land-use and management decision-making. This framework integrates data and models to support an assessment of scenarios related to crop choices and irrigation management. The framework includes the IPCC models to describe nutrient losses, the Rothamsted carbon model to predict soil organic carbon and Cornel's Environmental Impact Quotient model to predict impacts from pesticides (fungicides, herbicides and insecticides). We used Monte Carlo simulations to quantify model uncertainties. Shaded arrays were used to communicate the uncertainties to end users of the framework. We parameterised our framework to explore outcomes for an irrigated agricultural area in a semi-arid region of Morocco. We used the framework to explore scenarios that were codesigned with farming stakeholders. The scenarios related to crop diversification, and to recent policies on the expansion of olive cultivation and the adoption of efficient irrigation technologies. For the outcomes considered (production, profitability, soil carbon, nutrient losses, pesticide impacts), there were clear trade-offs associated with the cropping system choice. Compared to the baseline scenario of rotated crops, olive production led to greater carbon sequestration (average 4 % increase by doubling olive production), reduced water use (average 3 % reduction by doubling olive production), and reduced emissions (average 42 % reduction by doubling olive production) but was less profitable and provided fewer edible calories. Additionally, olive cultivation was associated with higher environmental impacts from pesticides. Diversified systems, while less profitable, were associated with less harmful pesticide use. Drip irrigation was associated with positive outcomes for profit (average 23 % increase), water use (average 13 % reduction in water use), and reduced nitrogen leaching (average 40 % reduction) with negligible changes in other metrics. However, we did not account for factors associated with increased groundwater depletion. We conclude that such frameworks are a useful means for policy-stakeholders to explore the outcomes of their decisions, thereby, helping to minimise unintended consequences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"979 ","pages":"Article 179492"},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}