Science of the Total Environment最新文献

{"title":"Seabird responses to altered marine vessel activity during the COVID-19 anthropause: insights from citizen science","authors":"Kirk A. Hart ,&nbsp;Mark Drever ,&nbsp;Gregory O'Hagan ,&nbsp;Michael B. Schrimpf ,&nbsp;Leh Smallshaw ,&nbsp;Scott Wilson ,&nbsp;Patrick D. O'Hara","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181456","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181456","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Human activities exert multifaceted pressures on marine ecosystems, yet the degree to which seabirds respond to changes in vessel activity remains poorly quantified. The COVID-19 “anthropause” provided an unprecedented natural experiment to assess these responses across spatial and temporal scales. We combined Automatic Identification System data describing marine vessel activity with citizen-science observations from eBird to examine how 35 coastal seabird species in British Columbia, Canada, responded to pandemic-related changes in vessel traffic. Vessel activity was modelled using Generalized Additive Models to identify sites where small (personal), mid-sized (fishing and tug), and large (cargo, tanker and passenger) vessel traffic increased or decreased relative to pre-pandemic years (2018–2019). Seabird abundance was then modelled using negative binomial Generalized Additive Mixed Models to test for species-level changes between pre- and post-COVID periods, using the same sites identified in the previous step as showing significant increases or decreases in vessel activity. This paired-model approach (one for increase sites and one for decrease sites) allowed us to isolate seabird responses to directional changes in vessel activity, increasing confidence that observed patterns reflected vessel effects rather than unrelated environmental variation. Results revealed strong spatial heterogeneity in vessel reductions, with large vessels showing widespread declines, while small and mid-sized vessels displayed mixed patterns. Seabird responses were closely linked to these patterns: abundance generally increased where small-vessel traffic declined and decreased where it increased, indicating a negative association with small boats, while the opposite was true for mid-sized vessels, with abundance tending to rise where traffic increased and fall where it declined, reflecting a positive association. Large vessels produced few, mostly positive, significant associations, suggesting weaker or more distant effects. Collectively, these results demonstrate that vessel type, predictability, and proximity influence seabird responses to maritime disturbance. Our findings underscore the importance of considering vessel class and species-specific behaviour in marine spatial planning and mitigation of human impacts on seabird communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"1015 ","pages":"Article 181456"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inundation-driven community transitions in saltmarsh environments: Insights from multi-scale classification models","authors":"Acacia Markov ,&nbsp;Jacob Stolle ,&nbsp;Saeid Homayouni ,&nbsp;Ioan Nistor ,&nbsp;Abolghasem Pilechi","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181429","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181429","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This novel study presents vegetation community maps for saltmarshes along the Petites-Bergeronnes River, Québec (Canada), derived from supervised classification models of varying spatial and temporal resolutions. Random forest classification was performed using medium-resolution (3 m) PlanetScope satellite imagery, incorporating 12 images from the snow-free season (May–October 2023). High-resolution (0.2 m) multispectral imagery from the Government of Québec, Canada, supported a single-date (August 24, 2023) classification for the same region. This marks the first temporal feature approach to saltmarsh classification in the St. Lawrence Estuary, and the first direct comparison of community-level saltmarsh classification contrasting high spatial- versus high temporal-resolution. For the first time, tidal inundation dynamics were explicitly incorporated during classification, using inundation time as a predictor variable. This improved overall classification accuracy to 83% for the temporal imagery model and 96% for the high-resolution model. Moving beyond regional mapping, community extents were compared with tidal inundation data to identify thresholds for eco-geomorphic transitions and develop stress functions for saltmarsh evolution modeling. A region-independent threshold of ∼11% inundation time marked the majority transition from pioneer to high marsh vegetation. Mudflat-to-pioneer transitions were region-dependent (16–29% inundation time), indicating that the lower elevation limit of establishment is not solely dictated by inundation stress. As the first inundation thresholds identified independently of tidal datums for saltmarshes dominated by <em>S. alterniflorus</em>, <em>S. pumilus</em>, and <em>P. maritima</em>, these findings represent a significant advancement for saltmarsh eco-geomorphic studies across diverse geographies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"1015 ","pages":"Article 181429"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exposure to aged polypropylene nurdle leachates disrupts photosymbiosis in a kleptoplastic unicellular eukaryote","authors":"Vincent M.P. Bouchet ,&nbsp;Leslie Muller ,&nbsp;Adrien Brown ,&nbsp;Noémie Deldicq ,&nbsp;Alice Deiss ,&nbsp;Loic Tailliez ,&nbsp;Fabrice Bertile","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181394","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181394","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Kleptoplasty, i.e. the sequestration of functional algal chloroplasts by a host organism, represents a natural case of photosymbiosis from which the host derives crucial energetic benefits. We explored here how this host-symbiont relationship is affected by polypropylene nurdle leachates in a kleptoplastidic foraminifera. When exposed to virgin nurdles, a mild proteome regulation was observed in the host, whereas photosynthetic proteins were more abundant in kleptoplasts, supplying energy to the host. These results show that, <em>de novo</em> protein synthesis in stolen chloroplasts and delivery of host proteins and algal proteins encoded by the host following horizontal gene transfer are necessary to maintain efficient photosymbiosis in a virgin nurdle leachate polluted environment. Conversely, aged nurdles strongly reduced the content of photosynthesis-related proteins in kleptoplasts, disrupting the host-symbiont association. Remodeling of the proteome nevertheless suggested the possibly for an increased energy production in foraminifera, through a switch from mixotrophy to heterotrophy. Benthic foraminifera are therefore truly efficient unicellular eukaryotes, with diverse and sophisticated metabolic adaptive strategies that we are just beginning to discover.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"1015 ","pages":"Article 181394"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transformation of inorganic reactive nitrogen species in a simulated vadose zone","authors":"Yvon Ukwishaka ,&nbsp;Daniel N. Miller ,&nbsp;Preetismita Borah ,&nbsp;Daniel D. Snow ,&nbsp;Michael Kaiser ,&nbsp;Chittaranjan Ray ,&nbsp;David Fleisher ,&nbsp;Dennis Timlin ,&nbsp;Vangamilla Reddy ,&nbsp;Arindam Malakar","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181412","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181412","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent research correlates irrigation water inputs with the occurrence of inorganic reactive nitrogen species in the vadose zone; particularly, low water input is linked with a greater occurrence of ammonium in intermediate vadose zone sediments beneath agriculturally intensive areas. We hypothesize that lower volume of water input, observed in rainfed agriculture, increases nitrate residence time within the vadose zone, enhancing transformations into other reactive nitrogen species. To investigate the potential relationship between inorganic nitrogen pools and water inputs, a controlled column experiment (150 cm) with intact vadose zone cores to preserve soil structure, chemical, and biological properties was established. One set of columns (<em>n</em> = 3) received artificial rainwater (495 mm) over 159 days, while another set (n = 3) was irrigated with an additional 272 mm of groundwater in addition to rainwater application (495 mm). These applications mirrored the farmer's irrigation schedule for the growing season and the natural rainfall at the core collection site in York County, Nebraska. A mixture of dissolved organic carbon compounds, simulating root zone exudates, was applied at the beginning of the irrigation. Initial (day 0) soil nitrate concentrations (4.1 ± 0.6 μg-N g⁻¹) were significantly higher than final (day 159) in rainfed (2.2 ± 0.2 μg-N g⁻¹) and irrigated systems (2.2 ± 0.3 μg-N g⁻¹, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) in the column experiment. Conversely, the final soil ammonium concentrations under rainfed (13.0 ± 2.8 μg-N g-1) and irrigated systems (12.7 ± 2.5 μg-N g⁻¹) were significantly higher than day 0 soil (4.6 ± 0.5 μg-N g-1, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.01). Throughout the experiment, rootzone pore water nitrate-N concentration of irrigated systems was significantly (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) higher than in the rainfed system. Interestingly, the overall ammonium concentration of irrigated systems' groundwater was higher than that of rainfed systems, whereas the nitrate concentrations were similar. Our study suggests that differences in water volume input influence nitrogen reactivity in the vadose zone and impact reactive nitrogen transformation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"1015 ","pages":"Article 181412"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A review of AI/ML approaches in wastewater surveillance advancement","authors":"Mustafa Ali ,&nbsp;Almotasem Bellah Younis ,&nbsp;Chichedo I. Duru ,&nbsp;Samendra P. Sherchan","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181364","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181364","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as a powerful tool for early detection and monitoring of infectious diseases, particularly during pandemics such as COVID-19. This study systematically evaluates the application of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models in WBE over the past five years, focusing on their effectiveness in pathogen detection and disease trend forecasting. Various supervised, unsupervised, deep learning, and time-series models were compared based on their predictive accuracy, scalability, interpretability, computational demands, and real-time feasibility. Comparative analysis showed that Random Forest (RF) achieved R² values of 0.80 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) 0.54 for COVID-19 trend forecasting, outperforming linear regression. Support Vector Machines (SVM) improved pathogen classification accuracy by ∼20% compared with traditional analytical techniques. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) estimated pathogen prevalence with <em>R</em> = 0.81–0.92 and mean squared, while Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks achieved R² ≈ 0.81 (test) and 0.94 (train) for multi-community forecasting. Time-series machine learning models (TSML) frameworks consistently produced lower RMSE and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values than ARIMAX models, confirming their real-time prediction power. Unsupervised models like K-means clustering supported outbreak pattern identification, when labeled data were limited. Additionally, a decision-support framework was proposed to guide model selection based on prediction objectives, data type, and temporal dependencies. The findings emphasize the importance of integrating hybrid modeling approaches and environmental metadata to enhance WBE systems, and they offer a foundation for real-time, adaptive surveillance strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"1015 ","pages":"Article 181364"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pesticides effects and sensitivity of enchytraeids and earthworms: A systematic review in Brazilian research and future perspectives","authors":"Thiago Ramos Freitas ,&nbsp;Luís Carlos Iuñes de Oliveira Filho ,&nbsp;Daniela Tomazelli ,&nbsp;Clara Wandenkolck Silva Aragão ,&nbsp;Vicente Arcela ,&nbsp;Gabriel Sehnem Heck ,&nbsp;Bianca Vidal Freire ,&nbsp;Michelle Caroline Santos Rocha ,&nbsp;Osmar Klauberg-Filho ,&nbsp;Ana Letícia Madeira Sanches","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181419","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181419","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The intensive use of pesticides in Brazilian agriculture may pose significant risks to soil biodiversity and ecological functions in tropical and subtropical conditions. Terrestrial oligochaetes, such as earthworms and enchytraeids, are key bioindicators for assessing pesticide toxicity due to their ecological roles in soil structure, nutrient cycling, and organic matter decomposition. This systematic review compiles 118 toxicity assessments derived from 34 studies conducted in Brazil, using natural soils or Tropical Artificial Soil (TAS), primarily involving <em>Eisenia andrei</em> and <em>Enchytraeus crypticus</em>. Insecticides accounted for the most evaluations (54%), followed by fungicides (31%) and herbicides (15%), with emphasis on substances showing high toxicity: imidacloprid, fipronil, carbendazim, and mancozeb. Soil characteristics such as pH, organic matter, and clay content played a decisive role in modulating pesticide effects, with sandy and acidic soils generally enhancing toxicity. The predominant endpoints assessed were lethality and reproduction, reflecting the reliance on standardized ISO and OECD protocols. However, the scarcity of studies involving native species and representative tropical soil types reveals a significant knowledge gap that could limit ecological realism and regulatory applicability of current data. This review underscores the urgent need for more context-specific approaches in pesticides Environmental Risk Assessment to ensure adequate protection of tropical soil ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"1015 ","pages":"Article 181419"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146028001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Plasmid-borne multidrug resistance genes in environmental isolates from hospital effluent: Implications for resistance dissemination","authors":"Prajakti ,&nbsp;Manish Kumar Pandey ,&nbsp;Kunal Mukhopadhyay","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181407","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181407","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Antibiotic resistance (AR) in environmental bacteria poses a critical challenge to public health, driven largely by the dissemination of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) via mobile genetic elements such as plasmids. In our previously reported work, environmental bacterial isolates were obtained from diverse aquatic sources contaminated by hospital effluents, and their antibiotic susceptibility profiles were determined. Species-level identification of isolates as <em>Aeromonas</em> spp. was achieved through 16S rRNA sequencing, revealing a diverse microbiota harbouring multidrug resistance (MDR) traits. In the present study, plasmids sequence was reconstructed using the plasmidSPAdes assembler. The assembled plasmid sequences were interrogated against the Comprehensive Antibiotic Resistance Database (CARD), enabling the identification of ARGs and associated accessory genes. Comparative analysis of the five reconstructed plasmid sequences was conducted through network analysis, which allowed the segregation of ARGs shared across all plasmids from those uniquely present. Representative ARGs identified as common were selected for experimental validation. PCR amplification and sequencing detected these target ARGs within the plasmids of different isolates. Subsequently, their abundance was quantified using absolute qPCR, providing precise copy number/μL. This integrated approach from plasmid reconstruction to ARG network mapping and quantitative validation offers a robust framework for understanding the distribution and prevalence of plasmid borne ARGs in environmental bacteria. The findings underscore the pivotal role of plasmids in ARG dissemination and highlight the importance of coupling in silico analysis with experimental confirmation for comprehensive resistance surveillance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"1015 ","pages":"Article 181407"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146028006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bioremediation of ether PFAS alternatives: A structure-reactivity-partitioning framework for hybrid treatment design","authors":"Huimin Zhang ,&nbsp;Panpan Liu ,&nbsp;Chichedo I. Duru ,&nbsp;Tania Moharrery ,&nbsp;Donghee Kang ,&nbsp;Samendra P. Sherchan","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181367","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181367","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ether-based PFAS such as HFPO-DA (GenX), ADONA, and chlorinated PFESAs (F-53B) have replaced legacy PFOS and PFOA but remain environmentally persistent and biologically recalcitrant. Their ether linkages, electron-withdrawing headgroups, and perfluorinated backbones hinder enzymatic access and C<img>F bond cleavage. Current evidence indicates slow oxidative modification for GenX, while ADONA remains largely resistant and undergoes only chemical (total oxidizable precursor (TOP)-like) oxidation to PFMOPrA; F-53B is subject to reductive dechlorination to 6:2H-PFESA without defluorination. This review synthesizes molecular-to-process-level insights on bioremediation of ether-PFAS substitutes, consolidating recent data from microbial, fungal, enzymatic, and plant systems. A clear structure–reactivity rule was identified: α-C–H/α-CHF or C<img>Cl “handles” facilitate transformation, whereas full fluorination and steric shielding enforce persistence. Because intrinsic biological turnover is slow, hybrid treatment trains that combine physicochemical pre-activation (UV/sulfite, electro-Fenton, plasma, or vitamin B12/sulfide reduction) with aerobic or rhizospheric bio-polishing offer a credible route to partial mineralization (≈10–30% defluorination). Emerging genetically enhanced systems: engineered microbes expressing oxygenases, dehalogenases, or fluoride-export modules, and transgenic plants harboring oxidative enzymes, represent the next frontier for bridging chemical activation and biological degradation. A technology-readiness matrix ranks feasible chemo-bio scenarios across water, sludge, and soil environments. This review outlines a research agenda that integrates enzyme design, synthetic biology chassis optimization, and structure-guided modeling to predict degradability. Embedding molecular persistence into regulatory assessment is essential to prevent future “regrettable replacements.”</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"1015 ","pages":"Article 181367"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146027970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mitigation of antibiotic resistance genes and pathogens via black soldier fly-mediated bioconversion of chicken manure","authors":"Yun-Ying Wu ,&nbsp;Yuan-Yu Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181409","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181409","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The widespread use of antibiotics in poultry production has resulted in manure residues that harbor antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) and multidrug-resistant bacteria, posing serious risks to environmental and public health. The black soldier fly (<em>Hermetia illucens</em>) is an emerging bioconversion agent that efficiently transforms organic wastes into nutrient-rich biomass. However, its impact on the fate of ARGs and pathogenic bacteria during poultry manure recycling remains insufficiently understood.</div><div>This study investigated the dynamics of microbial communities and ARGs during black soldier fly larvae (BSFL)-mediated bioconversion of chicken manure. Eight representative ARGs (<em>sul1</em>, <em>tetA</em>, <em>tetB</em>, <em>tetG</em>, <em>blaTEM</em>, <em>blaCTX</em>, <em>blaSHV</em>, and <em>qnrB</em>) were quantified by qPCR, while bacterial community composition was analyzed through 16S rRNA sequencing and functional prediction using PICRUSt. BSFL treatment significantly reduced the relative abundance of tetracycline resistance genes (<em>tetA</em>, <em>tetB</em>, <em>tetG</em>) and pathogenic taxa such as <em>Acinetobacter</em>, <em>Clostridium</em>, <em>Enterococcus</em>, and <em>Escherichia-Shigella</em> in manure residues. In contrast, ARGs including <em>sul1</em>, <em>qnrB</em>, and β-lactamase-related genes accumulated in larval guts, likely due to enrichment of ARG-associated genera (<em>Providencia</em>, <em>Enterococcus</em>, <em>Dysgonomonas</em>) carrying mobile genetic elements.</div><div>Overall, BSFL bioconversion effectively mitigated ARGs and pathogens in manure residues, contributing to safer livestock waste recycling. Nonetheless, ARG retention within larval guts highlights the need for post-harvest safety measures to prevent downstream dissemination. These findings advance the understanding of ARG ecology in biological waste treatment systems and support the development of sustainable manure management strategies aligned with the One Health framework.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"1015 ","pages":"Article 181409"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146027979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"GeoDetector-based assessment of DOC–metal risk hotspots and LULC–climate projections in the Upper Meghna River system","authors":"Fahmida Sultana ,&nbsp;Zia Ahmed ,&nbsp;M. Safiur Rahman ,&nbsp;Fei Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181382","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181382","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) plays a pivotal role in regulating the mobility and bioavailability of trace metals in freshwater systems, yet its interactions with land-use and climate drivers remain poorly constrained in South Asian river basins. This study identifies key risk thresholds and examines their spatial and future implications for DOC–metal interactions in the Upper Meghna River, Bangladesh. Using the Geographical Detector Method (GDM), spatial hotspot statistics (Getis-Ord Gi*, Local Moran's I), interpretable machine learning (ICE, ALE, LIME), and Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN), DOC enrichment above ~6 mg L⁻¹ and built-up land cover exceeding ~25% are shown to consistently elevate the probability of high-risk conditions, particularly for Pb, Cr, and Ni. These threshold exceedances are spatially concentrated near industrial areas, market centers, and launch terminals, where multiple analytical frameworks converge on similar hotspot signals across 23 monitoring stations. Future land-use/land-cover projections and CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5) indicate that hotspot extents may expand by 10–15% by 2050, driven by continued urbanization and intensified monsoon processes. The findings support the adoption of threshold-based monitoring, spatially targeted mitigation at key anthropogenic nodes, and nature-based solutions such as riparian buffers. Incorporating DOC–metal thresholds into India–Bangladesh cooperative frameworks could strengthen evidence-based transboundary river governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"1015 ","pages":"Article 181382"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146027959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}