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Scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions for Russia 俄罗斯温室气体排放情景
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-10
Горячая тема, Журнал Нэа, М. Э. Дмитриев, РАНХиГС, Москва
The purpose of this study is to develop and quantify possible scenarios for the implementation of climate policy, as well as the opportunities for achieving carbon neutrality by the middle of the 21st century or earlier. For this purpose, two scenarios are considered — basic and transformational. The baseline scenario includes measures that least affect the existing socio-political and economic interests with the greatest contribution from deforestation, modernization of technologies for the use of hydrocarbons in industry and cleaner transport. The limitations of the baseline scenario will not allow achieving carbon neutrality by the middle of the 21st century. The transformational scenario takes into account the most realistic options for closing the gap between the offi cial scenario developed by the Government of the Russian Federation shortly before the 2021 UN Climate Change Conference and more ambitious options for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 or earlier. In our transformational scenario, Russia reaches carbon neutrality 10 years earlier, by 2040, and subsequently turns into a net sink of greenhouse gases, including due to the huge potential of forest plantations.
本研究的目的是制定和量化实施气候政策的可能情景,以及到21世纪中叶或更早实现碳中和的机会。为此,考虑了两种场景——基本场景和转换场景。基线情景包括对现有社会政治和经济利益影响最小的措施,而对森林砍伐、工业中使用碳氢化合物的技术现代化和更清洁的运输的贡献最大。基线情景的局限性将不允许在21世纪中叶之前实现碳中和。转型方案考虑了最现实的方案,以缩小俄罗斯联邦政府在2021年联合国气候变化大会前不久制定的官方方案与2050年或更早实现碳中和的更雄心勃勃的方案之间的差距。在我们的转型情景中,俄罗斯到2040年将提前10年达到碳中和,随后将成为温室气体的净汇,其中包括由于森林种植园的巨大潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Scenarios of transformation: Decarbonization of the Russian economy 转型情景:俄罗斯经济脱碳
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-12
Горячая тема, Журнал Нэа, M. R. Salikhov, Т.А. Романова
The paper presents a forecast of the structure of power sector in Russia in 2050 under various scenarios for the transformation of the energy system and the possible prices for greenhouse gas emissions. CO2 emissions in the power sector by 2050 can be 32.7% lower compared to 2020 in sustainable development scenario (SDS) with an average CO2 price of $27/t over the period. In this scenario, the capacity structure will shift in favor of an increase in the share of nuclear and gas generation with a reduction in coal generation. In the scenario of zero greenhouse gas emissions (Net Zero), the price of CO2 is 37% higher compared to the scenario of sustainable development ($37/t). The implementation of the latter scenario will reduce emissions in the power industry by 40% compared to 2020. The article gives recommendations for changing the economic policy that would accelerate the decarbonization of the Russian economy and identifi es key risks of decarbonization.
本文预测了2050年俄罗斯电力部门在能源系统转型的各种情况下的结构以及可能的温室气体排放价格。在可持续发展情景(SDS)中,到2050年,电力部门的二氧化碳排放量可比2020年降低32.7%,期间二氧化碳平均价格为27美元/吨。在这种情况下,产能结构将转向有利于增加核能和天然气发电的份额,同时减少煤炭发电。在温室气体零排放情景(净零排放)中,二氧化碳的价格比可持续发展情景(37美元/吨)高出37%。与2020年相比,后一种方案的实施将使电力行业的排放量减少40%。本文提出了改变经济政策的建议,这将加速俄罗斯经济的脱碳,并确定了脱碳的主要风险。
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引用次数: 0
Inefficiency of road concessions in Russia: exception or rule? 俄罗斯道路特许经营效率低下:例外还是规则?
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2021-50-2-5
S. P. Bushansky, Central Economics
It explores the contradiction between the optimistic expectations of public-private partnership (PPP) and the estimated socio-economic unprofitability of road concessions in Russia. It is shown that special national guidelines for assessment of PPP efficiency are not a barrier to the approvement of inappropriate, from a public point of view, investment projects. The official approval of such regulations suggests that the Russian design system is skeptical about the possibility of a compromise between public efficiency and PPP projects. In foreign practice, the regulatory traditional requirements for the positive social effect from the development of toll roads are generally preserved, but the expediency of toll (in comparison with free road) is usually «confirmed» by listing its theoretical advantages. The systematic absence of correct calculations, including the examples in methodological documents, indicates the prevailing skepticism of the decision-making system towards rationale of tolling. The main conclusion of the article is that the theoretical notions of PPP as an effective mechanism and at the same time the limited practical choice of its schemes, with an obligatory direct user tolls, are the reason for the mimicry of the investment design system, which is forced to arrange inefficient solutions for road construction.
它探讨了对公私合作伙伴关系(PPP)的乐观期望与俄罗斯道路特许权估计的社会经济无利可图之间的矛盾。研究表明,国家专门的PPP效率评估指南并不能阻碍公众对不合适的投资项目的批准。这些规定的官方批准表明,俄罗斯设计系统对公共效率和PPP项目之间妥协的可能性持怀疑态度。在国外实践中,一般保留了收费公路发展产生积极社会效应的监管传统要求,但通常通过列举其理论优势来“确认”收费公路的权宜之计(与免费公路相比)。系统地缺乏正确的计算,包括方法文件中的例子,表明决策系统普遍怀疑收费的理由。本文的主要结论是,PPP作为一种有效机制的理论概念,以及其方案的有限实际选择,以及强制性的直接用户通行费,是投资设计系统模仿的原因,迫使其为道路建设安排低效的解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
China in Quesnay’s doctrine: Interpretations, translations, cultural aspects 魁奈学说中的中国:阐释、翻译、文化层面
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2021-50-2-7
O. Borokh
The paper analyzes the Chinese influences on the doctrine of the French physiocrat François Quesnay from the perspective of the cultural specifics of the perception of economic and political ideas. The approaches of Chinese researchers were impacted by Marxist methodology, sinocentric views and fragmentary use of primary sources. The application of the Marxist concept of socio-economic formations supported the arguments that feudal Confucianism could not influence the views of physiocrats, which reflected the emergence of capitalist relations. In the 18th century opponents of the physiocrats used the comparison of the Tableau Économique with the scheme of the Chinese Book of Changes to disqualify Quesnay’s doctrine. For Chinese researchers this comparison became a confirmation of the value of the Tableau Économique and an incentive to search for the ideas of circular flows and equilibrium in both tables. The study of Despotism in China content confirms its connection with the actual historical China. It is concluded that Chinese scholars seek to interpret the historical precedent of the influence of Confucian thought on Quesnay’s doctrine in the context of plans to increase the global clout of China’s social sciences.
本文从经济和政治观念感知的文化特殊性角度,分析了中国对法国重农主义者魁奈学说的影响。中国研究者的研究方法受到马克思主义方法论、中国中心主义观点和零碎利用一手资料的影响。马克思主义社会经济形态概念的应用支持了封建儒家思想无法影响重农主义者观点的论点,这反映了资本主义关系的出现。在18世纪,重农主义者的反对者用《周易》Économique与中国《易经》的图式相比较来否定魁奈的学说。对于中国研究人员来说,这种比较证实了表格Économique的价值,并激励他们在两个表格中寻找循环流动和平衡的思想。对中国专制制度内容的研究证实了其与中国历史实际的联系。文章的结论是,中国学者试图在计划提高中国社会科学全球影响力的背景下,解释儒家思想对魁奈学说影响的历史先例。
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引用次数: 0
Regions of Russia during a pandemic: Socio-economic dynamics and budget revenues 大流行期间的俄罗斯地区:社会经济动态和预算收入
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2021-51-3-10
N. Zubarevich
It is difficult to identify the most and the least affected regions in the pandemic crisis, since the dynamics of different indicators did not coincide. Industrial output decline was deeper in oil-extracting regions. Agglomerations of federal cities, recreation regions of the South and the republics of the North Caucasus had the strongest decline in the service sector. The dynamics of labor markets in the regions during the pandemic strongly depended on institutional factors – state support for employed in small businesses and assistance to the unemployed. Small business employment in most regions did not decline. The level of registered unemployment grew faster in the largest agglomerations, and the slowest emerging from the crisis were the underdeveloped republics. After a strong decline in the population incomes in the 2nd quarter of 2020 due to lockdowns, a gradual convergence of regional dynamics began, but without a noticeable improvement. In terms of population income and employment, Moscow is recovering from the crisis much faster thanks to its huge competitive advantages. The dynamics of own revenues of regional budgets during pandemic is associated with the structure of the economy and the importance of profit tax in the budget revenues. The largest losses in 2020 were experienced by the oil-extracting regions due to a sharp reduction in profit tax. Since 2021, the own revenues of the budgets of metallurgical regions grew the fastest due to a threefold increase in this tax. Lockdowns in the first wave of the pandemic turned out to be less significant because the number of regions with a decline in their own revenues in the 2nd quarter of 2020 was 1,5 times less than in 2020.
由于不同指标的动态不一致,很难确定受大流行病危机影响最严重和最不严重的区域。石油开采地区的工业产出降幅更大。联邦城市聚集区、南部娱乐区和北高加索各共和国的服务业下降最为严重。疫情期间各区域劳动力市场的动态在很大程度上取决于体制因素——国家对小企业就业的支持和对失业者的援助。大多数地区的小企业就业没有下降。在最大的聚集区,登记失业人数增长得更快,而从危机中复苏最慢的是欠发达共和国。在2020年第二季度受封城影响人口收入大幅下降之后,区域动态开始逐渐趋同,但没有明显改善。在人口收入和就业方面,莫斯科正以更快的速度从危机中复苏,这得益于其巨大的竞争优势。大流行期间区域预算自身收入的动态与经济结构和利得税在预算收入中的重要性有关。由于利得税大幅下调,石油开采地区在2020年遭受了最大的损失。自2021年以来,由于这项税收增加了三倍,冶金地区的预算收入增长最快。事实证明,第一波大流行期间的封锁并不那么重要,因为2020年第二季度自身收入下降的地区数量是2020年的1.5倍。
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引用次数: 8
Economic policies in a pandemic 流行病中的经济政策
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2021-49-1-7
A. Kireyev, J. Ferrer
What economic policy space does a country have to respond to a crisis provoked by the Covid-19 pandemic? To assess this space, the article calculates the nominal policy space index as a sum of each country’s fiscal space, monetary space, and reserve space. This nominal policy space is then adjusted for institutional features of individual countries to derive the effective policy space index. By way of illustration, the article applies the index to the Covid-19 crisis. It finds that at least 95 countries (about 11 percent of global GDP and 23 percent of population) have no or very limited policy space and may require emergency assistance.
一个国家有什么样的经济政策空间来应对Covid-19大流行引发的危机?为了评估这一空间,本文将名义政策空间指数计算为各国财政空间、货币空间和储备空间的总和。然后根据各国的制度特征对名义政策空间进行调整,得出有效政策空间指数。通过举例说明,本文将该指数应用于2019冠状病毒病危机。报告发现,至少95个国家(约占全球国内生产总值的11%和人口的23%)没有或非常有限的政策空间,可能需要紧急援助。
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引用次数: 0
Is the difference in consumption and income an indication of petty corruption? 消费和收入的差异是轻微腐败的标志吗?
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2021-49-1-4
T. Zhuravleva, Russia Saint Petersburg
Based on micro-level data on reported household earnings, expenditures and assets, provided by the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) for the period 2000–2013, it is found that households with workers in the public sector receive lower earnings than households with members employed in the private sector but enjoy the same level of consumption. Controlling for the reported level of earnings, private households do not show a significantly higher probability of possessing summer cottages (dachas), cars and computers, or living in better housing conditions, or having a higher level of monetary savings. The differences in assets cannot be reconciled with the sizeable expenditure-income gap found. The precautionary motives of workers are not able to reconcile these discrepancies either: neither attitude to risk, nor risk itself, differ between individuals employed in the private and public sectors. It is hypothesized that employees continue working in the public sector despite their low rate of official pay, because of unreported income they receive, or bribes.
根据俄罗斯纵向监测调查(RLMS)提供的2000-2013年期间报告的家庭收入、支出和资产的微观数据,发现有公共部门员工的家庭收入低于有私营部门员工的家庭,但享有相同的消费水平。控制报告的收入水平,私人家庭并没有显示出拥有避暑别墅(dachas),汽车和电脑,或生活在更好的住房条件,或拥有更高水平的货币储蓄的显著更高的可能性。资产上的差异与所发现的巨大支出收入差距是无法调和的。工人的预防动机也无法调和这些差异:无论是对风险的态度,还是风险本身,在私营部门和公共部门就业的个人之间都不一样。据推测,尽管公务员的工资很低,但他们仍然在公共部门工作,因为他们收到了未报告的收入或贿赂。
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引用次数: 1
Analysis of interregional migration flows in Russia in the context of certain types of migration 在某些类型的移民背景下对俄罗斯区域间移民流动的分析
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2021-50-2-2
E. Ostrovskaya, D. Mamontov, K. A. Spiridonov, I. V. Levyy
The impact of interregional migration on regional economic and social sphere necessitates the determination of migration factors. An analysis of existing studies has shown that gravity models can be considered the most effective tool for migration flows analysis. At the same time existing studies show a weak elaboration of approaches that involve the separation of migration into different types depending on the goal of the relocation. The purpose of the article is to analyze the interregional migration flows in the context of types of migration identifying a set of factors that determine a particular type of migration. The main result obtained by the authors is the determination of three regional clusters that attract a certain type of migrants. Clustering was carried out using a set of indicators with a model-oriented clustering methods. The main conclusions made in the article are related to improving the quality of models when dividing regions into clusters and including different variables for certain types of migration. However, the authors note that the input data for the analysis is somewhat noisy, since it contains migrants of all ages. Therefore, the obtained regional groupings by type of migration are only the first approximation of differentiation by type of arriving or departing citizens. The results of the study can be used for further work on the definition of the determinants of interregional migration, as well as for studies on the impact of migration on regional labor markets and socioeconomic situation of regions.
区域间移徙对区域经济和社会领域的影响需要确定移徙因素。对现有研究的分析表明,重力模型可以被认为是分析迁移流动的最有效工具。与此同时,现有的研究表明,对根据迁移目标将移徙划分为不同类型的方法的阐述不够充分。本文的目的是在移民类型的背景下分析区域间移民流动,确定一组决定特定类型移民的因素。作者获得的主要结果是确定了三个吸引某类移民的区域集群。采用一组指标,采用面向模型的聚类方法进行聚类。本文得出的主要结论是,在将区域划分为集群并对某些类型的迁移包含不同变量时,如何提高模型的质量。然而,作者指出,分析的输入数据有些嘈杂,因为它包含了所有年龄段的移民。因此,所获得的按移徙类型划分的区域分组只是按抵达或离开公民类型划分的初步近似。这项研究的结果可用于进一步确定区域间移徙的决定因素的工作,以及用于研究移徙对区域劳动力市场和区域社会经济状况的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The level and the profile of persistent poverty in Russia 俄罗斯持续贫困的水平和状况
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2021-50-2-3
A. Pishnyak, N. Khalina, E. Nazarbaeva, A. Goriainova
Experts who work on the poverty issues agree that the group of poor is very heterogeneous. Based on duration of living below the subsistence level, authors identify persistent and transitory poverty. Income of those who face persistent poverty stays below the poverty line for a long time, while those who suffer from transitory poverty have unstable situation: after overcoming poverty for some time many of them can face the problem of low income again. Different methods exist for evaluating of the level of persistent and transitory poverty on both panel and cross-sectional data. The article presents the detailed description of advantages and limitations of different approaches to persistent poverty measurement. After consideration of these approaches the analysis of persistent poverty in Russia on RLMS HSE data is performed. Taking into account the huge set of previous studies we evaluate the share of persistently poor population according to methodology adopted in European countries, the profile of persistent poverty is also described. The results are compared with already existing data about chronic poverty in Europe.
研究贫困问题的专家一致认为,穷人群体是非常多样化的。根据低于维持生计水平的生活时间,作者确定了持续贫困和短暂贫困。持续贫困人口的收入长期处于贫困线以下,而暂时贫困人口的情况不稳定,他们中的许多人在克服贫困一段时间后可能再次面临低收入问题。在面板数据和横断面数据上,存在不同的方法来评估持续贫困和短暂贫困的水平。本文详细描述了持续贫困测量的不同方法的优点和局限性。在考虑了这些方法之后,对俄罗斯RLMS HSE数据进行了持续贫困的分析。考虑到之前的大量研究,我们根据欧洲国家采用的方法评估了持续贫困人口的比例,并描述了持续贫困的概况。研究结果与欧洲已有的关于长期贫困的数据进行了比较。
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引用次数: 2
The community of researchers and “academic performance” evaluation 社会对研究人员和“学业成绩”的评价
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2021-50-2-8
L. Jakobson
An evaluation of “academic performance” is considered in the context of performance management in the sphere of science. An emphasis is made on the dependence of the evaluation on interests and, accordingly, on an inherently unrealistic development of an “objectively correct” evaluation which would be unanimously approved by those whose interests are not identical. A variety of researchers’ interest is stated together with a lack of institutionalized norms for working out a consolidated position. At the same time, the paper points out the deep-rooted nonidentical nature of the interests of scientists and those who design and implement the policy in the sphere of science. The demand of policy subjects for the formalization of evaluations, even at the cost of roughening the realities is also underscorred. Considering these realities, the conclusion is made about the hopelessness of the search for ideal solutions. At the same time, another conclusion is made that “academic performance” evaluation implemented in the sphere of science management could gradually become more acceptable for researchers. However, it depends not so much on the study and discussions of various evaluation systems as on the development of the research community and the formation of conditions for an effective dialogue between the latter and the subjects of the science policy.
在科学领域的绩效管理的背景下,对“学术表现”的评估被考虑。强调了评价对利益的依赖,因此强调了一种“客观正确”评价的本质上是不现实的发展,这种评价将得到利益不相同的人的一致赞同。研究人员的各种兴趣与缺乏制定统一立场的制度化规范一起陈述。同时,指出在科学领域,科学家与政策制定者和执行者的利益存在着根深蒂固的不同一性。还强调了政策主体要求将评价正式化,甚至不惜以使现实变得粗糙为代价。考虑到这些现实,得出的结论是寻找理想的解决办法是无望的。同时,得出了另一个结论,即在科学管理领域实施“学业成绩”评价可以逐渐为研究人员所接受。然而,与其说它取决于对各种评价体系的研究和讨论,不如说它取决于研究界的发展以及后者与科学政策主体之间有效对话的条件的形成。
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引用次数: 0
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Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association
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