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Financialized Growth and the Structural Power of Finance: Turkey's Debt-Led Growth Regime and Policy Response after the Crisis 金融化增长和金融的结构性力量:危机后土耳其债务主导的增长机制和政策应对
IF 2.4 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.1177/00323292221125566
Ayça Zayim
This article analyzes the Turkish central bank's “managed uncertainty” policy after the global financial crisis. During 2010–14, the central bank intentionally generated uncertainty around short-term interest rates, using the level of predictability faced by financiers as a tool to buffer the domestic economy from volatile capital flows. How did the central bank implement this unconventional policy? Building on interview data and public texts, the article argues that the surge in capital inflows after the crisis sourced a debt-led, financialized economic growth model and deepened Turkey's reliance on external financing. The central bank could diverge from the financial sector's policy preferences despite Turkey's increased foreign capital dependence because the availability of low-cost, ample, private funding opportunities temporarily expanded policymakers’ room to maneuver. However, operating vis-à-vis an unsustainable growth regime, the central bank had to revert to orthodoxy in 2014 due to declining investor confidence and capital flight. This article contributes to the literature on the structural power of finance by demonstrating how finance derives its structural power from funding financialized growth, not productive investments. It also shows that financial structural power varies based on the source and cost of external financing beyond the degree of foreign capital dependence.
本文分析了全球金融危机后土耳其央行的“有管理的不确定性”政策。2010-2014年期间,央行有意制造短期利率的不确定性,将金融家面临的可预测性水平作为缓冲国内经济不稳定资本流动的工具。央行是如何实施这一非常规政策的?基于采访数据和公开文本,文章认为,危机后资本流入的激增源于债务主导、金融化的经济增长模式,并加深了土耳其对外部融资的依赖。尽管土耳其对外国资本的依赖增加,但央行可能会偏离金融部门的政策偏好,因为低成本、充足的私人融资机会暂时扩大了政策制定者的回旋余地。然而,在不可持续的增长体制下,由于投资者信心下降和资本外逃,央行不得不在2014年恢复正统。本文通过展示金融如何从资助金融化增长而非生产性投资中获得结构性权力,为有关金融结构性权力的文献做出了贡献。它还表明,金融结构力量的变化取决于外部融资的来源和成本,而不仅仅是对外资的依赖程度。
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引用次数: 1
Harvesting Influence: Agrarian Elites and Democracy in Brazil 收割的影响:巴西的农业精英与民主
IF 2.4 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-05-09 DOI: 10.1177/00323292221094882
Belén Fernández Milmanda
With size, voting discipline, and technical resources superior to those of most Brazilian parties, in the last two decades, the support of the Agrarian Caucus has become crucial for the realization of presidents’ legislative agenda. In a country where 87 percent of the population is urban, how have representatives of the agrarian elites become key players in bargaining on nonagrarian issues? This article argues that Brazilian agrarian elites have been so successful because they have devised an electoral strategy that maximizes their leverage in a fragmented party system with ideologically weak right-wing parties. Empirically, I show how agrarian elites in Brazil finance legislative campaigns, mobilize voters, and subsidize the legislative work of politicians from their ranks, independently of their partisan affiliation. Theoretically, I discuss the advantages of a candidate-centered electoral strategy: self-representation and multipartisanship. While self-representation has granted agrarian elites direct access to agenda-setting positions within Congress, having members in many parties has increased the number of agenda-setting positions they can control and guaranteed their presence in the legislative coalition of right- and left-wing presidents alike.
在过去的二十年里,由于规模、投票纪律和技术资源都优于大多数巴西政党,农业核心小组的支持对总统立法议程的实现至关重要。在一个87%的人口都在城市的国家,农业精英的代表如何成为非农业问题谈判的关键参与者?这篇文章认为,巴西农业精英之所以如此成功,是因为他们制定了一种选举策略,在意识形态薄弱的右翼政党支离破碎的政党体系中最大限度地发挥他们的影响力。从经验上讲,我展示了巴西的农业精英如何资助立法运动,动员选民,并资助他们队伍中的政治家的立法工作,而不依赖他们的党派关系。从理论上讲,我讨论了以候选人为中心的选举策略的优势:自我代表和多党制。虽然自我代表权使农业精英能够直接进入国会的议程制定职位,但许多政党的成员增加了他们可以控制的议程制定岗位的数量,并保证了他们在右翼和左翼总统的立法联盟中的存在。
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引用次数: 2
The Formalization of Informal Workers at Hyundai Motor Company 现代汽车公司非正式员工的正规化
IF 2.4 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-03-04 DOI: 10.1177/00323292221078652
Minhyoung Kang
Hyundai Motor Company (HMC) has departed from the general tendency in the neoliberal era toward labor casualization. Nonregular workers at HMC have succeeded in having their employment status converted from precarious to permanent. I investigate why informal workers at HMC have been more successful in regularizing their status than informal workers in the shipbuilding industry. I contend that the deskilled labor process in automobile production provides favorable conditions for informal workers to organize themselves and stage disruptive protests. These differences in the labor process, however, cannot fully explain the success of HMC given the failure in other automobile factories. I argue that self-organization and protests led by rank-and-file informal workers as well as solidarity from left-leaning formal workers played decisive roles in formalizing informal workers at HMC. I conclude by stressing the importance of structural conditions and workers’ collective actions in explaining the divergent outcomes in limiting dualization.
现代汽车公司(HMC)脱离了新自由主义时代的劳动休闲化趋势。HMC的非正式员工已经成功地将他们的雇佣状态从不稳定转变为永久雇佣状态。我调查了为什么HMC的非正式工人比造船业的非正式工人更成功地使他们的地位正规化。我认为,汽车生产中不熟练的劳动过程为非正式工人组织起来和进行破坏性抗议提供了有利条件。然而,鉴于其他汽车厂的失败,这些劳动过程的差异并不能完全解释HMC的成功。我认为,由普通非正式工人领导的自我组织和抗议以及左倾正式工人的团结在HMC非正式工人的正规化中发挥了决定性作用。最后,我强调了结构条件和工人集体行动在解释限制二元化的不同结果中的重要性。
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引用次数: 1
When Can Dictators Go It Alone? Personalization and Oversight in Authoritarian Regimes 独裁者什么时候可以独当一面?威权体制中的个性化与监督
IF 2.4 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-03-04 DOI: 10.1177/00323292221078661
Andrew Leber, Christopher Carothers, M. Reichert
Why are some autocrats able to personalize power within their regimes while others are not? Past studies have focused on the balance of power between the autocrat and his or her supporting coalition of peer or subordinate elites, but we find that often the crucial relationship is between the autocrat and the “old guard”—retired leaders, party elders, and other elites of the outgoing generation. Using an original data set of authoritarian leadership transitions, we argue that when members of the old guard retain oversight capacity over their incoming successor, he or she is less likely to overturn power-sharing arrangements and consolidate individual power. We illustrate this argument with a case study of three leadership transitions in China between 1989 and 2012. This study’s findings advance our understanding of elite politics and intergenerational conflict in authoritarian regimes.
为什么一些独裁者能够在其政权内个性化权力,而另一些则不然?过去的研究集中在独裁者和他或她支持的同行或下属精英联盟之间的权力平衡上,但我们发现,关键的关系往往是独裁者和“老卫士”——退休领导人、党内元老和其他即将离任的一代精英之间的关系。使用威权领导层过渡的原始数据集,我们认为,当保守派成员保留对即将上任的继任者的监督能力时,他或她推翻权力分享安排和巩固个人权力的可能性较小。我们通过对1989年至2012年间中国三次领导层换届的案例研究来说明这一论点。这项研究的发现促进了我们对独裁政权中精英政治和代际冲突的理解。
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引用次数: 5
Teacher Unions, Political Machines, and the Thorny Politics of Education Reform in Latin America 拉丁美洲教师工会、政治机器和教育改革的棘手政治
IF 2.4 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI: 10.1177/00323292211002788
Ben Ross Schneider
Existing research on developing countries emphasizes the decisive power of teacher unions in education politics. Yet that power varies, and a full understanding of the roots of union power and the sources of cross-national variation requires deeper analysis of organizational dynamics within unions. This analysis supports four arguments. First, teachers have a range of advantages in overcoming obstacles to collective action. Second, unions are not all alike; they vary widely, from interest groups (in Chile, Brazil, and Peru) to powerful political machines (in Mexico and Ecuador). Third, the source of this variation lies in factors (e.g., influence over teacher hiring) that shift power within unions from members to leaders in political-machine unions. Fourth, analyzing the dimensions of variation helps explain the different outcomes of recent reforms to teacher careers in Latin America, especially in highlighting the staunch opposition from political-machine unions.
现有对发展中国家的研究强调教师工会在教育政治中的决定性力量。然而,这种权力是不同的,要充分理解工会权力的根源和跨国差异的来源,需要对工会内部的组织动态进行更深入的分析。这一分析支持了四个论点。首先,教师在克服集体行动的障碍方面具有一系列优势。其次,工会并非都一样;从利益集团(在智利、巴西和秘鲁)到强大的政治机器(在墨西哥和厄瓜多尔),它们差别很大。第三,这种差异的根源在于一些因素(例如,对教师招聘的影响),这些因素将工会内部的权力从成员转移到政治机器工会的领导人手中。第四,分析变化的维度有助于解释最近拉丁美洲教师职业改革的不同结果,特别是在强调政治机器工会的坚定反对方面。
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引用次数: 7
State Policy Regimes and Associational Roles in Technology Development: A Tale of Two Metropolises 国家政策体制与技术发展中的联合作用:两个大都市的故事
IF 2.4 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-02-01 DOI: 10.1177/00323292211070077
Xiaoke Zhang
The lead trade associations of the bio-pharma and semiconductor industries have differed systematically in their roles in facilitating the development of innovation networks between Shanghai and Shenzhen, two prominent high-tech metropolises in China. Divergent associational roles stem from variations in the regional state policy regime that has exerted differential shaping influence on the structure of social cleavages and strength of reciprocity norms among member firms and on their willingness to actively and cooperatively engage in association-led networking activities. The bio-pharma and semiconductor associations whose network-building roles have been structured differently through varied state policy regimes have displayed dissimilar abilities to reduce network failures and promote the innovation competences of their member firms between the two metropolises. The empirical findings of the article carry important implications for understanding the causes and consequences of varied associational roles in the process of technology development in China, other emerging markets, and beyond.
不同的协会角色源于区域国家政策制度的差异,这些政策制度对成员企业之间的社会分裂结构和互惠规范的强度以及他们积极合作地参与协会主导的网络活动的意愿产生了不同的影响。通过不同的国家政策制度,生物制药和半导体协会在网络建设方面的作用有所不同,在两个大都市之间,它们在减少网络故障和促进成员公司创新能力方面表现出不同的能力。本文的实证结果对于理解中国、其他新兴市场及其他地区技术发展过程中各种关联角色的原因和后果具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 1
Eviction and Voter Turnout: The Political Consequences of Housing Instability 驱逐和选民投票率:住房不稳定的政治后果
IF 2.4 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1177/00323292211050716
Gillian Slee, Matthew Desmond
In recent years, housing costs have outpaced incomes in the United States, resulting in millions of eviction filings each year. Yet no study has examined the link between eviction and voting. Drawing on a novel data set that combines tens of millions of eviction and voting records, this article finds that residential eviction rates negatively impacted voter turnout during the 2016 presidential election. Results from a generalized additive model show eviction’s effect on voter turnout to be strongest in neighborhoods with relatively low rates of displacement. To address endogeneity bias and estimate the causal effect of eviction on voting, the analysis treats commercial evictions as an instrument for residential evictions, finding that increases in neighborhood eviction rates led to substantial declines in voter turnout. This study demonstrates that the impact of eviction reverberates far beyond housing loss, affecting democratic participation.
近年来,美国的住房成本超过了收入,导致每年有数百万人申请驱逐。然而,没有任何研究考察驱逐和投票之间的联系。根据一个结合了数千万驱逐和投票记录的新数据集,本文发现,在2016年总统选举期间,住宅驱逐率对选民投票率产生了负面影响。广义加法模型的结果表明,在流离失所率相对较低的社区,驱逐对选民投票率的影响最强。为了解决内生性偏见并估计驱逐对投票的因果影响,该分析将商业驱逐视为住宅驱逐的工具,发现社区驱逐率的提高导致选民投票率大幅下降。这项研究表明,驱逐的影响远远超出了住房损失,影响了民主参与。
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引用次数: 2
Agents of Representation: The Organic Connection between Society and Leftist Parties in Bolivia and Uruguay 代表代理人:玻利维亚和乌拉圭社会与左翼政党的有机联系
IF 2.4 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-09-28 DOI: 10.1177/00323292211042442
Santiago Anria, Verónica Pérez Bentancur, Rafael Piñeiro Rodríguez, F. Rosenblatt
Parties are central agents of democratic representation. The literature assumes that this function is an automatic consequence of social structure and/or a product of incentives derived from electoral competition. However, representation is contingent upon the organizational structure of parties. The connection between a party and an organized constituency is not limited to electoral strategy; it includes an organic connection through permanent formal or informal linkages that bind party programmatic positions to social groups’ preferences, regardless of the electoral returns. This article analyzes how the Movimiento al Socialismo (Movement toward Socialism, MAS) in Bolivia and the Frente Amplio (Broad Front, FA) in Uruguay developed two different forms of relationship with social organizations that result from the interplay of historical factors traceable to the parties’ formative phases and party organizational attributes. Party organizational features that grant voice to grassroots activists serve as crucial mechanisms for bottom-up incorporation of societal interests and demands.
政党是民主代表制的核心力量。文献认为,这一功能是社会结构的自动结果和/或选举竞争激励的产物。然而,代表权取决于各方的组织结构。政党与有组织选区之间的联系不仅限于选举策略;它包括通过永久的正式或非正式联系的有机联系,将政党的纲领立场与社会群体的偏好联系起来,无论选举结果如何。本文分析了玻利维亚的社会主义运动和乌拉圭的安波利阵线是如何与社会组织发展出两种不同形式的关系的,这两种关系是可追溯到政党形成阶段和政党组织属性的历史因素相互作用的结果。赋予基层积极分子发言权的党的组织特征是自下而上纳入社会利益和需求的关键机制。
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引用次数: 4
Contesting Counterpublics: The Transformation of the Articulation of Rural Migrant Workers’ Rights in China’s Public Sphere, 1992–2014 对抗公众:1992-2014年中国公共领域农民工权利表达方式的转变
IF 2.4 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-09-28 DOI: 10.1177/00323292211042441
Mujun Zhou
This article extends the theoretical discussion of counterpublics and applies the concept to an authoritarian context. The article contends that it is necessary to distinguish between the counterpublic oriented by liberal ideology that criticizes authoritarianism at an abstract level (Counterpublic I) and the counterpublics that are concerned with substantive inequality (Counterpublic II). To illustrate the approach taken, the articulation of rural migrant workers’ rights between 1992 and 2014 is documented, demonstrating that, in the 1990s and early 2000s, most public discussion on the issue tended to reduce workers’ rights to civil rights. It was not until the late 2000s that alternative forms of rights, such as social rights, were thematized. As the article argues, this was because the power balance between Counterpublic I and Counterpublic II had been changed. The empirical study explains the transformation and highlights the heterogeneity within Counterpublic II by comparing the diverse strategies employed by different actors.
本文扩展了反公开的理论讨论,并将这一概念应用于一个专制的背景下。文章认为,有必要区分以自由主义意识形态为导向的、在抽象层面批评威权主义的反公共(反公共I)和关注实质性不平等的反公众(反公共II)。为了说明所采取的方法,记录了1992年至2014年间农村移民工人权利的表述,表明在20世纪90年代和21世纪初,大多数关于这一问题的公开讨论倾向于将工人的权利减少为公民权利。直到21世纪末,社会权利等其他形式的权利才被主题化。正如文章所说,这是因为反公众I和反公众II之间的权力平衡发生了变化。实证研究通过比较不同参与者采用的不同策略,解释了这种转变,并强调了Counterpublic II内部的异质性。
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引用次数: 1
Building Programmatic Linkages in the Periphery: The Case of the TRT Party in Thailand 在周边地区建立程序性联系:以泰国的TRT党为例
IF 2.4 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-09-22 DOI: 10.1177/00323292211039954
Illan Nam, V. Nethipo
Did the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) Party of Thailand, the first party in the country’s history to gain parliamentary dominance in 2001, represent a departure from traditional clientelistic Thai parties or was it old wine in a new bottle? This article argues that the TRT represented a new hybrid party that successfully established programmatic linkages in rural parts of the country by systematizing its use of informal social networks in local communities. By routinizing recruitment, training, and evaluation of its parliamentary candidates and their vote-canvassing networks, the TRT imparted midlevel politicians with the incentives and ability to promote the party’s policy agenda to rural voters and to cultivate new policy-oriented linkages alongside traditional clientelistic ones. By identifying specific organizational mechanisms by which the TRT combined programmatic and clientelistic linkages with rural voters, this study contributes to literature that examines hybrid party strategies as well as informal party organization.
泰国泰爱泰党是该国历史上第一个在2001年获得议会主导权的政党,它代表着与传统的客户主义泰国政党的背离,还是新瓶装旧酒?这篇文章认为,TRT代表了一个新的混合政党,通过在当地社区系统化使用非正式社会网络,成功地在该国农村地区建立了方案联系。通过对议会候选人及其拉票网络进行常规化的招募、培训和评估,TRT赋予了中层政治家向农村选民宣传该党政策议程的激励和能力,并与传统的客户主义联系一起培养新的政策导向联系。通过确定TRT将方案和客户主义联系与农村选民相结合的具体组织机制,本研究有助于研究混合政党战略以及非正式政党组织的文献。
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引用次数: 2
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Politics & Society
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