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Contract breach with overconfident expectations: Experimental evidence on reference-dependent preferences 过度自信预期下的契约违约:参考依赖偏好的实验证据
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2025.05.012
Sabine Fischer , Kerstin Grosch
This study examines the effect of agents' overconfident expectations in their production on their contract breach. Drawing on a reference-dependent framework, we theoretically deduce propositions for compliance to agreements where an agent exhibits overconfidence and loss aversion. We further conduct a lab experiment with a multiple-stage design and find that overconfident agents are more likely to breach the contract than non-overconfident agents. Moreover, overconfident agents breach more often and to a greater extent with increasing loss aversion. We also test the impact of a non-deterministic environment (“shock condition”) where payoff misestimation can be masked compared to a deterministic environment (“no-shock condition”). Agents breach more often in the shock condition, but breach extent remains unaffected. Results are mostly in line with the theoretical framework. In a treatment, we manipulate agents' overconfidence exogenously and use it as an instrument to establish causality.
本研究考察了代理人对其生产的过度自信预期对其违约行为的影响。利用参考依赖框架,我们从理论上推导出代理表现出过度自信和损失厌恶的协议遵守命题。我们进一步进行了多阶段设计的实验室实验,发现过度自信的代理人比非过度自信的代理人更容易违约。此外,过度自信的代理人违约的频率更高,违约程度也更大,损失厌恶情绪也在增加。我们还测试了非确定性环境(“冲击条件”)的影响,其中与确定性环境(“无冲击条件”)相比,收益错误估计可以被掩盖。在冲击条件下,特工更容易破坏,但破坏程度不受影响。结果基本符合理论框架。在治疗中,我们外源性地操纵主体的过度自信,并将其作为建立因果关系的工具。
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引用次数: 0
Data provision to an informed seller 向知情的卖方提供数据
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2025.06.002
Shota Ichihashi , Alex Smolin
A monopoly seller is privately and imperfectly informed about the buyer's value of the product. A designer can provide the seller with additional information, which the seller uses to price discriminate the buyer. We demonstrate the difficulty of screening the seller's information: When the buyer's value is binary, no combination of buyer surplus and seller profit can be implemented other than those achieved by providing the same information to all seller types. We use the result to characterize the set of implementable welfare outcomes and demonstrate the trade-off between buyer surplus and efficiency.
垄断卖方私下不完全了解买方对产品的价值。设计师可以向卖家提供额外的信息,卖家利用这些信息对买家进行价格歧视。我们证明了筛选卖方信息的困难:当买方的价值是二元的时候,除非向所有类型的卖方提供相同的信息,否则无法实现买方剩余和卖方利润的组合。我们用这个结果来描述一系列可实施的福利结果,并证明了买方剩余和效率之间的权衡。
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引用次数: 0
Strategy-proofness, efficiency, and the core in matching problems with transfers 无策略性、效率和转移匹配问题的核心
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2025.06.001
Shuhei Morimoto
We study a class of matching problems in which monetary transfers are possible. In this paper, we establish a close connection between the core and the existence of desirable rules that satisfy strategy-proofness or one-sided strategy-proofness. In our main result, we show that the optimal core is a unified lower bound of welfare for the existence of rules that satisfy strategy-proofness (or one-sided strategy-proofness), efficiency, individual rationality, and no subsidy. Applying this result, we also obtain impossibility and characterization results in our environment.
我们研究了一类可能存在货币转移的匹配问题。在本文中,我们建立了核心与满足策略证明或片面策略证明的理想规则的存在之间的紧密联系。在我们的主要结果中,我们证明了最优核心是一个统一的福利下界,因为存在满足策略抗性(或单边策略抗性)、效率、个体理性和无补贴的规则。应用这一结果,我们也得到了我们环境中的不可能性和表征结果。
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引用次数: 0
Favor exchange with private costs: An experiment 带有私人成本的偏好交换:一项实验
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2025.05.011
Arianna Degan , Yushen Li , Huan Xie
We conduct an experiment on a two-player infinitely repeated favor exchange game. In the stage game, each player decides whether to provide a favor to the other player. A favor generates a fixed benefit for the recipient and a cost for the provider, which can be either low or high. We study the situation where this cost is private information and it is efficient to provide a favor only when the cost is low. We address two general questions: 1) To what extent do subjects exchange favors in ways that are payoff enhancing, given that private information hinders exchanging favors efficiently? 2) Which strategies do subjects choose and what are the driving forces behind their choices? We focus on Stationary Strongly Symmetric (SSS) strategies, where players play the same strategy after any history, and Equality Matching (EM) strategies, where subjects keep track of the net tallies of favors. We find that overall subjects exchange favors to a relatively large extent and achieve an average payoff-efficiency index exceeding 60%. Although simple strategies, as SSS, are played with the highest frequency, more complex strategies, as EM, explain an important proportion of the data. Subjects' behavior is not always consistent with incentive compatibility or driven by the attainment of higher ex-ante payoffs. The results also suggest that rewarding subjects for trusting and reciprocating might be more acceptable than requiring them to take very costly actions on the equilibrium path, even when it is overall payoff enhancing.
我们在一个两个人无限重复的交换博弈中做了一个实验。在阶段博弈中,每个参与者决定是否向另一个参与者提供帮助。一个恩惠会给接受者带来固定的利益,而给提供者带来成本,这个成本可以低也可以高。我们研究了这种成本为私人信息的情况,只有当成本较低时,提供帮助才是有效的。我们解决了两个一般性的问题:1)考虑到私人信息阻碍了有效地交换好处,受试者在多大程度上以提高回报的方式交换好处?2)受试者会选择哪些策略?他们选择策略背后的驱动力是什么?我们专注于静止强对称(SSS)策略,玩家在任何历史之后都玩相同的策略,以及平等匹配(EM)策略,受试者跟踪青睐的净计数。研究发现,整体主体的交换偏好程度较大,平均回报效率指数超过60%。虽然简单的策略,如SSS,使用频率最高,但更复杂的策略,如EM,解释了重要比例的数据。被试的行为并不总是与激励相容或受到获得较高事前报酬的驱使。结果还表明,奖励被试的信任和回报可能比要求他们在均衡路径上采取非常昂贵的行动更容易接受,即使这是总体回报增强。
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引用次数: 0
The matching benefits of market thickness 市场厚度的匹配效益
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2025.05.010
Simon Loertscher , Ellen V. Muir
The ability of larger markets to mitigate the incentive problem created by private information has been the focus of a sizable economics literature. In contrast, the fact that thicker markets also reduce the double coincidence of wants problem has received little attention. Modeling thin markets as bilateral trade involving independent private values and thick markets as Walrasian markets with a continuum of traders, we analyze and quantify the matching benefits of market thickness. These benefits increase with the nicheness of a product, which we measure as the mass of values and costs outside an interval of overlapping support where there are positive gains from trade. For sufficient nicheness, profit-maximizing intermediaries operating thick markets outperform ex post efficient bilateral trade. However, with bilateral trade as an outside option, traders of niche products are most vulnerable to intermediaries' market power. Extensions consider fixed costs of operating thick markets and finitely thick markets.
大型市场缓解私人信息带来的激励问题的能力一直是大量经济学文献关注的焦点。相比之下,更厚的市场也减少了双重巧合的问题却很少受到关注。将薄市场建模为涉及独立私人价值的双边贸易,将厚市场建模为具有连续交易者的瓦尔拉斯市场,我们分析并量化了市场厚度的匹配效益。这些利益随着产品的精细度而增加,我们将其衡量为在重叠支持区间之外的价值和成本的质量,在重叠支持区间内有贸易的积极收益。对于足够的细度,经营厚市场的利润最大化中介机构的表现优于事后有效的双边贸易。然而,由于双边贸易是一种外部选择,利基产品的贸易商最容易受到中介机构市场力量的影响。扩展考虑了操作厚市场和有限厚市场的固定成本。
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引用次数: 0
Condorcet-consistent choice among three candidates 孔多塞,三个候选人中的一致选择
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2025.05.005
Felix Brandt , Chris Dong , Dominik Peters
A voting rule is a Condorcet extension if it returns a candidate that beats every other candidate in pairwise majority comparisons whenever one exists. Condorcet extensions have faced criticism due to their susceptibility to variable-electorate paradoxes, especially the reinforcement paradox (Young and Levenglick, 1978) and the no-show paradox (Moulin, 1988b). In this paper, we investigate the susceptibility of Condorcet extensions to these paradoxes for the case of exactly three candidates. For the reinforcement paradox, we establish that it must occur for every Condorcet extension when there are at least eight voters and demonstrate that certain refinements of maximin—a voting rule originally proposed by Condorcet (1785)—are immune to this paradox when there are at most seven voters. For the no-show paradox, we prove that the only homogeneous Condorcet extensions immune to it are refinements of maximin. We also provide axiomatic characterizations of maximin and two of its refinements, Nanson's rule and leximin, highlighting their suitability for three-candidate elections.
投票规则是Condorcet扩展,如果它返回的候选人在配对多数比较中击败所有其他候选人(只要存在)。孔多塞扩展由于易受可变选民悖论的影响而受到批评,尤其是强化悖论(Young and Levenglick, 1978)和不出现悖论(Moulin, 1988b)。在本文中,我们研究了孔多塞扩展对这些悖论的敏感性。对于强化悖论,我们确定当至少有8个投票人时,它必须发生在每个孔多塞扩展中,并证明当最多有7个投票人时,最大化的某些改进-孔多塞(1785)最初提出的投票规则-不受此悖论的影响。对于无显示悖论,我们证明了唯一不受其影响的齐次孔多塞扩展是极大极小的改进。我们还提供了maximin的公理化特征及其两个改进,Nanson规则和leximin,突出了它们对三候选人选举的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
“Equilibrium play in voluntary ultimatum games: Beneficence cannot be extorted” - Comment “自愿最后通牒博弈中的均衡博弈:仁慈不能被勒索”-评论
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2025.05.009
Austin Brooksby , Jacob Meyer , Lucas Rentschler , Vernon Smith , Robbie Spofford
Smith and Wilson (2018) argue that behavior in the ultimatum game may be due to the typical implementation, in which players are not given the opportunity to opt out of the game. Using insights from Smith (1759), they suggest that making play voluntary would increase rates of equilibrium play. They conducted an augmented ultimatum game where the responder first decides whether to participate, and compare their experimental data to stylized facts from the literature, reporting “far higher rates of equilibrium play...than heretofore reported”. However, they do not run standard versions of the ultimatum game as a control. To ensure their interpretation is warranted, we conducted experiments of both their augmented game and an analogous standard ultimatum game. In our data, rates of equilibrium play were not higher in the augmented game. Thus, we find no support for the primary conclusion of Smith and Wilson (2018).
Smith和Wilson(2018)认为,最后通牒博弈中的行为可能是由于典型的实施,其中参与者没有机会选择退出游戏。根据Smith(1759)的见解,他们认为让游戏变得自愿性会增加平衡游戏的比率。他们进行了一个增强的最后通牒游戏,在这个游戏中,响应者首先决定是否参与,并将他们的实验数据与文献中的程式化事实进行比较,报告称“均衡游戏的比例要高得多……比之前报道的要多”。然而,他们没有运行标准版本的最后通牒游戏作为对照。为了确保他们的解释是合理的,我们对他们的增强游戏和类似的标准最后通牒游戏进行了实验。在我们的数据中,均衡游戏的比率在增强游戏中并不高。因此,我们发现没有证据支持Smith和Wilson(2018)的主要结论。
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引用次数: 0
No trade under verifiable information 在可核实的信息下不进行贸易
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2025.05.007
Spyros Galanis
No trade theorems examine conditions under which agents cannot agree to disagree on the value of a security which pays according to some state of nature, thus preventing any mutual agreement to trade. A large literature has examined conditions which imply no trade, such as relaxing the common prior and common knowledge assumptions, as well as allowing for agents who are boundedly rational or ambiguity averse. We contribute to this literature by examining conditions on the private information of agents that reveals, or verifies, the true value of the security. We argue that these conditions can offer insights in three different settings: insider trading, the connection of low liquidity in markets with no trade, and trading using public blockchains and oracles.
没有任何交易定理考察在何种条件下,代理人不能就根据某种自然状态支付的证券的价值达成一致意见,从而阻止任何相互交易协议。大量的文献研究了没有交易的条件,比如放宽共同先验和共同知识假设,以及允许有限理性或模糊厌恶的代理人。我们通过研究揭示或验证安全的真实价值的代理的私有信息的条件来贡献这一文献。我们认为,这些条件可以在三种不同的环境中提供见解:内幕交易,没有交易的市场中低流动性的联系,以及使用公共区块链和神谕进行交易。
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引用次数: 0
Optimizing successive incentives: Rewarding the past or motivating the future? 优化连续激励:奖励过去还是激励未来?
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2025.05.006
Jens Gudmundsson , Jens Leth Hougaard , Juan D. Moreno-Ternero , Lars Peter Østerdal
We study sequential processes where agents create value through costly and uncertain investments, with success triggering further investment decisions by others. Our paper focuses on designing optimal allocation rules that distribute the total value generated among agents, balancing the recognition of past contributions with incentives for future investments. We prove the existence of equilibrium in the game induced by any such rule and identify a unique investment profile that maximizes the overall expected welfare in the sequential process. This profile can be supported in equilibrium by a simple rule. Additionally, we show that there is a unique investment profile maximizing the initiator's expected payoff and provide a method for the initiator to design a rule supporting it. We extend the model to scenarios where agents' investments are constrained by the value generated within the process. Our findings demonstrate that relatively simple reward structures that prioritize short-term incentives can effectively achieve long-term systemic goals.
我们研究连续过程,其中代理人通过昂贵和不确定的投资创造价值,成功引发其他人进一步的投资决策。本文的重点是设计最优分配规则,将产生的总价值分配给各个主体,平衡对过去贡献的认可和对未来投资的激励。我们证明了在任何这样的规则诱导的博弈中存在均衡,并确定了在顺序过程中使总体期望福利最大化的唯一投资配置。这个轮廓可以通过一个简单的规则来支持平衡。此外,我们还展示了一种独特的投资配置文件,使发起人的预期收益最大化,并为发起人设计支持它的规则提供了一种方法。我们将模型扩展到代理的投资受到流程中产生的价值约束的场景。我们的研究结果表明,优先考虑短期激励的相对简单的奖励结构可以有效地实现长期的系统性目标。
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引用次数: 0
Bargaining with binary private information 用二进制私有信息讨价还价
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2025.05.008
Francesc Dilmé
This paper examines bargaining between a seller and a buyer with a binary private valuation. The seller offers a price to the buyer in each period. We explicitly construct the complete equilibrium set via an induction argument both for the finite and infinite horizon cases. When the horizon is finite and the probability of a high buyer valuation is large, the seller consistently charges a high price, resulting in trade bursts at the outset and deadline, with constant trade rates in between. We also show that the seller may be worse off when the low buyer's valuation increases and that the buyer may be better off when the seller has commitment than when not. We relate our results to previous findings on bargaining with two-sided offers.
本文研究了二元私有估价下买卖双方的议价问题。卖方在每个时期向买方提供一个价格。在有限视界和无限视界情况下,我们通过归纳论证显式构造了完全平衡集。当交易期限有限,买家估值高的可能性很大时,卖家就会持续收取高价格,导致交易开始和截止日期出现爆发,其间交易利率不变。我们还表明,当低买家的估值增加时,卖家的情况可能更糟,而当卖家有承诺时,买家的情况可能比没有承诺时更好。我们将我们的研究结果与之前关于双方还价的研究结果联系起来。
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引用次数: 0
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Games and Economic Behavior
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