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High-stakes failures of backward induction 后向诱导的高风险失败
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.07.001
Bouke Klein Teeselink, Dennie van Dolder, Martijn J. van den Assem, Jason D. Dana
We examine high-stakes strategic choice using more than 40 years of data from the American TV game show . In every episode, contestants play the , a sequential game of perfect information for which the optimal strategy can be found through backward induction. We find that contestants systematically deviate from the subgame perfect Nash equilibrium. These departures from optimality are well explained by a modified agent quantal response model that allows for limited foresight. The results suggest that many contestants simplify the decision problem by adopting a myopic representation, and optimize their chances of beating the next contestant only. In line with learning, contestants' choices improve over the course of our sample period.
我们利用 40 多年来美国电视游戏节目的数据,研究了高风险战略选择。在每期节目中,参赛者都要玩一个完全信息的连续游戏,通过逆向归纳法可以找到该游戏的最优策略。我们发现,参赛者会系统性地偏离子博弈完全纳什均衡。这些偏离最优状态的情况可以用允许有限预见的修正代理量子反应模型很好地解释。结果表明,许多参赛者通过采用近视表征来简化决策问题,只优化击败下一位参赛者的机会。与学习相一致的是,在我们的样本期内,参赛者的选择也在不断改进。
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引用次数: 0
Reputation-based persuasion platforms 基于声誉的说服平台
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.07.002
Itai Arieli, Omer Madmon, Moshe Tennenholtz

In this paper, we introduce a two-stage Bayesian persuasion model in which a third-party platform controls the information available to the sender about users' preferences. We aim to characterize the optimal information disclosure policy of the platform, which maximizes average user utility, under the assumption that the sender also follows its own optimal policy. We show that this problem can be reduced to a model of market segmentation, in which probabilities are mapped into valuations. We then introduce a repeated variation of the persuasion platform problem in which myopic users arrive sequentially. In this setting, the platform controls the sender's information about users and maintains a reputation for the sender, punishing it if it fails to act truthfully on a certain subset of signals. We provide a characterization of the optimal platform policy in the reputation-based setting, which is then used to simplify the optimization problem of the platform.

在本文中,我们引入了一个两阶段贝叶斯说服模型,在该模型中,第三方平台控制着发送者可获得的用户偏好信息。我们旨在描述平台的最优信息披露政策,即在发送方也遵循自身最优政策的假设条件下,最大化用户平均效用。我们证明,这个问题可以简化为一个市场细分模型,在这个模型中,概率被映射为估值。然后,我们引入了一个说服平台问题的重复变体,在这个变体中,近视用户会依次到达。在这种情况下,平台会控制发送者的用户信息,并维护发送者的声誉,如果发送者未能对特定子集的信号采取真实行动,平台就会对其进行惩罚。我们提供了基于声誉设置的最优平台政策的特征,然后用它来简化平台的优化问题。
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引用次数: 0
Gender and cooperation in the presence of negative externalities 负外部性下的性别与合作
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.06.007
Justus Haucap , Christina Heldman , Holger A. Rau

Social dilemmas often impose negative externalities on third parties. We experimentally analyze gender differences in cooperation in such a setting, i.e., a prisoner's dilemma game, with a passive third party that may be harmed when active players mutually cooperate. Applying a within-subjects setting, we compare cooperation under anonymity and social information, as personal characteristics are commonly known in real-life relations. Results show that the presence of a negative externality particularly affects guilt-averse women, who cooperate less often independently of the degree of information they receive. No gender difference is found absent negative externalities.

社会困境通常会给第三方带来负面的外部效应。我们通过实验分析了在囚徒困境博弈中,当积极参与者相互合作时,被动的第三方可能会受到伤害,在这种情况下合作的性别差异。我们采用主体内设置,比较了匿名和社会信息下的合作,因为个人特征在现实生活关系中是众所周知的。结果表明,负外部性的存在对内疚感较强的女性的影响尤其大,无论她们获得多少信息,她们的合作频率都较低。在没有负外部性的情况下,则没有发现性别差异。
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引用次数: 0
Random partitions, potential, value, and externalities 随机分区、潜力、价值和外部性
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.06.004
André Casajus , Yukihiko Funaki , Frank Huettner

The Shapley value equals a player's contribution to the potential of a game. The potential is a most natural one-number summary of a game, which can be computed as the expected accumulated worth of a random partition of the players. This computation integrates the coalition formation of all players and readily extends to games with externalities. We investigate those potential functions for games with externalities that can be computed this way. It turns out that the potential that corresponds to the MPW solution introduced by Macho-Stadler et al. (2007, J. Econ. Theory 135, 339–356) is unique in the following sense. It is obtained as the expected accumulated worth of a random partition, it generalizes the potential for games without externalities, and it induces a solution that satisfies the null player property even in the presence of externalities.

夏普利值等于棋手对棋局潜力的贡献。潜力是一个博弈最自然的单数总结,可以计算为随机分配的玩家的预期累积价值。这种计算方法整合了所有博弈者的联盟形成,并很容易扩展到具有外部性的博弈。我们研究了可以用这种方法计算的有外部性博弈的势函数。事实证明,与马乔-斯塔德勒等人(2007,《经济理论杂志》,135, 339-356)提出的 MPW 解决方案相对应的势函数在以下意义上是唯一的。它是作为随机分区的预期累积价值得到的,它概括了无外部性博弈的潜力,而且即使在存在外部性的情况下,它也能诱导出一个满足空玩家属性的解。
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引用次数: 0
Clubs and networks 俱乐部和网络
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.06.005
Sihua Ding , Marcin Dziubiński , Sanjeev Goyal

A recurring theme in the study of society is the concentration of influence and power that is driven through unequal membership of groups and associations. In some instances, these bodies constitute a small world while in others they are fragmented into distinct cliques. This paper presents a new model of clubs and networks to understand the sources of individual marginalization and the origins of small and large worlds.

在社会研究中,一个反复出现的主题是影响力和权力的集中,而这种集中是由团体和协会成员的不平等所驱动的。在某些情况下,这些团体构成了一个小世界,而在另一些情况下,它们被分割成不同的小集团。本文提出了一个新的俱乐部和网络模型,以了解个人边缘化的根源以及小世界和大世界的起源。
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引用次数: 0
Peace in an unequal world? Experimental evidence on the relationship between inequality and conflict in a guns-vs-butter setting 不平等世界中的和平?枪支与黄油环境下不平等与冲突之间关系的实验证据
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.06.006
Alexandra Baier , Sophia Seelos , Thomas Rittmannsberger

This study addresses the emergence of (unarmed) peace and investments in arms within a guns-vs-butter conflict setting. We introduce a novel feature within the conflict game and separate the decision to start a conflict and the investment in arms, following the theoretical framework of Garfinkel and Syropoulos (2021). Based on this model we experimentally examine the emergence of peace while varying resource inequality among conflicting parties. We find that inequality leads to more conflicts and higher investments in arms. Despite these trends, achieving a state of unarmed peace is rarely observed in both treatments. Our results highlight the critical role of trust in attaining peaceful outcomes and show that armed peace, although not an optimal strategy in either treatment, is one of the most frequently chosen decisions.

本研究探讨了枪支与子弹冲突背景下(非武装)和平的出现和武器投资问题。按照 Garfinkel 和 Syropoulos(2021 年)的理论框架,我们在冲突博弈中引入了一个新特征,并将开始冲突的决定和武器投资分开。基于这一模型,我们通过实验研究了在冲突各方资源不平等程度不同的情况下和平的出现。我们发现,不平等会导致更多的冲突和更高的军备投资。尽管存在这些趋势,但在两种处理方法中都很少观察到实现非武装和平的状态。我们的结果凸显了信任在实现和平结果中的关键作用,并表明武装和平虽然在两种处理中都不是最优策略,但却是最常被选择的决策之一。
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引用次数: 0
The existence of a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium in a discrete ponds dilemma 离散池塘困境中存在纯策略纳什均衡
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.06.001
Vasily Gusev , Alexander Nesterov , Mikhail Reshetov , Alex Suzdaltsev

In a variety of economic situations discrete agents choose one resource among several available resources and, once admitted to the resource of choice, divide it among fellow agents admitted there. The amount of the resource an agent gets is proportional to her relative ability to acquire this particular resource, what we refer to as an agent's weight at the resource. The relevant applications include students self-selecting into colleges, politicians self-selecting into races, and athletes self-selecting into teams. We find that this game has a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium in at least three special cases: 1) when agents have the same weight at each resource, 2) when all resources are the same, 3) when there are only two resources. We also show that this game always has an approximate Nash equilibrium when the number of players is large. Existence in the general case remains an open problem.

在各种经济情况下,离散代理从几种可用资源中选择一种资源,一旦进入所选择的资源,就将其分配给进入该资源的其他代理。代理人获得的资源数量与其获取该特定资源的相对能力成正比,我们称之为代理人在该资源上的权重。相关应用包括学生自我选择进入大学、政治家自我选择参加竞选以及运动员自我选择进入球队。我们发现,这个博弈至少在三种特殊情况下具有纯策略纳什均衡:1)代理人在每种资源上的权重相同;2)所有资源相同;3)只有两种资源。我们还证明,当博弈者人数较多时,该博弈总是存在近似纳什均衡。一般情况下的存在性仍是一个悬而未决的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Asymmetric auctions: Perturbations, ε- equilibrium, and equilibrium 不对称拍卖:扰动、ε- 均衡和均衡
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.06.003
G.V.A. Dharanan , Alex Ellis

We consider first-price auctions with independent and private valuations that have asymmetric valuation distributions and supports. We first show the existence of equilibrium in these auctions through a perturbation approach, thereby establishing that the limit of Bayesian Nash equilibria (BNE) of such perturbed auctions is indeed the Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE) of the limit auction with asymmetric supports. We then characterize this BNE and show that the ε-equilibrium (ε-BNE) of the auction with asymmetric supports is a BNE of “close” auctions with common supports. We then demonstrate some numerical examples.

我们考虑的是具有非对称估值分布和支持的独立私人估值的第一价格拍卖。我们首先通过扰动方法证明了这些拍卖中均衡的存在,从而确定这种扰动拍卖的贝叶斯纳什均衡(BNE)的极限确实是具有非对称支持的极限拍卖的贝叶斯纳什均衡(BNE)。然后,我们将描述这种 BNE,并证明具有不对称支持的拍卖的-均衡(-BNE)是具有共同支持的 "接近 "拍卖的 BNE。然后,我们将举例说明。
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引用次数: 0
Social learning with partial and aggregate information: Experimental evidence 利用部分和总体信息进行社会学习:实验证据
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.05.005
Elisa Cavatorta , Antonio Guarino , Steffen Huck

In our information cascade experiments, we study social learning in decision-making situations in which decisions “not to do” are unobservable. Subjects, in sequence, choose whether to invest or not, without knowing their position. They observe a private signal and the number of investments made by their predecessors, but not how many predecessors have chosen not to invest. We find that down cascades, in which agents neglect the signal and do not invest, occur, in contrast with the equilibrium predictions. Up cascades, in which agents invest independently of the signal, occur, but less than in equilibrium.

在我们的信息级联实验中,我们研究了在 "不做 "的决定是不可观测的决策情况下的社会学习。受试者在不知道自己所处位置的情况下依次选择是否投资。他们会观察到一个私人信号和其前任的投资数量,但不会观察到有多少前任选择了不投资。我们发现,与均衡预测不同的是,会出现向下级联,即行为主体忽略信号而不投资。代理人不依赖信号而进行投资的向上级联也会发生,但比均衡时要少。
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引用次数: 0
Posted offers with charitable promises: True preferences and strategic behavior 带有慈善承诺的发布要约:真实偏好与策略行为
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2024.05.010
Claudia Schwirplies , Andreas Lange

We report experimental findings on the role of charitable promises in settings with posted offers. We vary the enforceability of such promises within variants of ultimatum games where the proposer suggests a split between herself, the responder and a charitable donation. By reneging on initial pledges, dishonest proposers can change the final allocation to their advantage. Providing ex post information on actual donations while leaving the contract incomplete outperforms a complete contract where proposers cannot renege on their charitable promises. The ex post information allows proposers to improve their image by voluntarily giving more than pledged and thus proving that the charitable pledge was not used for strategic reasons. We identify proposer competition as another (surprising) mechanism that partly eliminates cheating among accepted offers, but it also favors offers without charitable pledge.

我们报告了关于慈善承诺在张贴要约环境中的作用的实验结果。我们在最后通牒博弈的变体中改变了这种承诺的可执行性,在这种变体中,提议者建议在自己、回应者和慈善捐款之间进行分配。通过违背最初的承诺,不诚实的提议者可以改变最终的分配,使之对自己有利。在合同不完整的情况下提供有关实际捐赠的事后信息,效果优于完整合同,因为在完整合同中,提议者不能违背其慈善承诺。事后信息允许提议者通过自愿捐赠多于承诺来改善自己的形象,从而证明慈善承诺并非出于战略原因。我们发现提议者竞争是另一种(令人惊讶的)机制,它在一定程度上消除了已接受提议中的作弊行为,但也有利于没有慈善承诺的提议。
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引用次数: 0
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Games and Economic Behavior
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