Transport Policy最新文献_第9页

Impacts of negative congestion experiences on acceptance of tradable credits schemes: Integration of NAM and TPB 拥堵负面经验对可交易信贷计划接受度的影响：NAM 与 TPB 的整合

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.11.010

Shuang Cui , Lijun Tian , Yue Bao , Zhichao Zhang

Prior negative congestion experiences can influence public acceptance of congestion charging policies; however, this area remains underexplored in both academic and practical contexts. This study investigates this issue by integrating the norm activation model (NAM) and the theory of planned behavior (TPB), focusing on public acceptance of tradable credits schemes (TCS). Specifically, acceptance is measured via attitudes toward TCS and behavioral intentions to reduce car use under TCS. Using latent profile analysis, 426 participants were categorized into three distinct groups based on their prior negative congestion experiences. The findings indicate that those with high reactions exhibit stronger behavioral intentions to reduce car use. Chain mediation analysis demonstrates that prior negative congestion experiences causally impact these behavioral intentions. Moderated mediation analysis further reveals that such experiences (e.g., anxiety and bodily reactions) moderate behavioral intentions under TCS. High levels of anxiety and bodily reactions weaken the impact of personal norms on attitudes toward TCS, suggesting that individuals with intense reactions to congestion are more likely to directly support TCS. Conversely, enhancing personal norms among individuals with lower anxiety or bodily reactions tend to increase their support for TCS. Furthermore, personal norms are found to be more influential than social norms, offering greater explanatory power.

之前的负面拥堵经历会影响公众对拥堵收费政策的接受程度；然而，无论是在学术界还是在实践中，对这一领域的探索仍然不足。本研究通过整合规范激活模型（NAM）和计划行为理论（TPB）来研究这一问题，重点关注公众对可交易信用额度计划（TCS）的接受度。具体来说，接受度是通过对可交易信贷计划的态度和在可交易信贷计划下减少汽车使用的行为意向来衡量的。通过潜在特征分析，426 名参与者根据其先前的负面拥堵经历被分为三个不同的组别。研究结果表明，那些反应强烈的人表现出更强烈的减少使用汽车的行为意愿。链式中介分析表明，先前的负面拥堵经历会对这些行为意向产生因果影响。调节性中介分析进一步揭示了这些经历（如焦虑和身体反应）在交通管制方案下对行为意向的调节作用。高水平的焦虑和身体反应削弱了个人规范对 TCS 态度的影响，表明对拥堵反应强烈的个体更有可能直接支持 TCS。相反，焦虑或身体反应较低的人的个人规范的增强往往会增加他们对 TCS 的支持。此外，研究还发现个人规范比社会规范更具影响力，解释力更强。

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引用次数: 0

How has the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped the aviation network? A comparative pre- and during-pandemic analysis COVID-19 大流行如何重塑了航空网络？大流行前和大流行期间的比较分析

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.11.008

Lu Zhang , Jiaying Gong , Yu Yang

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted international flights, leading to substantial economic repercussions for the global tourism industry. While existing research has explored the resilience and recovery of the air transport system during the pandemic, this analysis delves into the structural transformation of the air transportation network within “the Belt and Road” region through a quantitative analysis. The findings reveal three critical aspects: (1) The pandemic caused a marked reduction in air transport connectivity, with flight frequency and route connectivity between cities decreasing by 27.82% and 35.87%, respectively, although the basic aviation framework remained intact. This impact varied across different administrative levels, regions, and distances, due to the impact of different countries' pandemic policies. Transnational connections were particularly hard-hit, experiencing more severe disruptions than domestic routes. (2) Significant shifts occurred in the rankings of aviation hubs. For example, cities like Singapore and Doha rose in prominence, while traditional hubs such as Moscow and Beijing saw a decline in their rankings. This shift reflects a reconfiguration of key nodes within the aviation network. (3) The network structure underwent significant reorganization and decentralization, transitioning from a conventional core-periphery model to a hybrid structure that blends core-peripheries with local communities. This transformation demonstrates the network's adaptability and its capacity to develop alternative structures in response to sudden external shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic. The insights from this analysis offer valuable guidance for policy-making and the development of emergency measures to better prepare for and mitigate future disruptions in air transport. The analysis underscores the importance of flexible and adaptive strategies in managing aviation networks, particularly in the face of global challenges.

COVID-19 大流行对国际航班造成了深远影响，给全球旅游业带来了巨大的经济冲击。现有研究探讨了疫情期间航空运输系统的复原力和恢复能力，而本分析报告则通过定量分析深入探讨了 "一带一路 "区域内航空运输网络的结构转型。研究结果揭示了三个关键方面：(1) 疫情导致航空运输连通性明显降低，城市间的航班频率和航线连通性分别下降了 27.82% 和 35.87%，但基本航空框架保持不变。由于各国的疫情政策不同，这种影响在不同的行政级别、地区和距离上也不尽相同。与国内航线相比，跨国航线受到的影响尤为严重。 (2) 航空枢纽的排名发生了重大变化。例如，新加坡和多哈等城市的地位上升，而莫斯科和北京等传统枢纽的排名下降。这种变化反映了航空网络中关键节点的重新配置。(3) 网络结构经历了重大重组和分权，从传统的核心-外围模式过渡到核心-外围与地方社区相结合的混合结构。这一转变显示了该网络的适应性及其发展替代结构以应对 COVID-19 大流行病等突发外部冲击的能力。本分析的见解为决策和制定应急措施提供了宝贵的指导，以更好地应对和缓解未来航空运输的中断。分析强调了灵活和适应性战略在管理航空网络中的重要性，尤其是在面对全球性挑战时。

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引用次数: 0

Comparative analysis of carbon emission reduction policies in China's manufacturing and transportation sectors 中国制造业和交通运输业碳减排政策比较分析

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.11.005

Hang Yuan , Lei Zhao , Hangjun Yang

This study evaluates China's environmental policies, specifically the increase of carbon emission tax rates and the reduction of carbon emission intensity, by developing a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NK-DSGE) model that incorporates energy consumption and carbon emissions. The production sector is segmented into manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and transportation, with transportation services acting as inputs for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms. We construct four cases within two scenarios, each characterized by distinct targets and policies. After calibrating and estimating the relevant parameters, we compare carbon reduction outcomes and economic fluctuations across the two scenarios. Our findings indicate that when targeting the same carbon emission tax rate increase or carbon emission intensity ratio reduction, policies that increase the carbon emission tax rate or reduce carbon emission intensity implemented in the manufacturing sector achieve greater carbon emission reductions compared to the same polices implemented in the transportation sector. Meanwhile, compared to the latter case, output experienced a greater decline, and inflation exhibited a more substantial increase in the former case. However, when the quantities of carbon emission reductions are approximately the same in the first quarter, policies that increase the carbon emission tax rate or reduce carbon emission intensity enacted in the transportation sector demonstrate superior performance relative to the same polices implemented in the manufacturing sector. This leads to smaller final output reductions and milder inflation increases. In summary, for equivalent levels of carbon emission reductions, policies implemented in the transportation sector yield more favorable economic outcomes than those applied in the manufacturing sector.

本研究通过建立一个包含能源消耗和碳排放的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡（NK-DSGE）模型，对中国的环境政策进行评估，特别是碳排放税率的提高和碳排放强度的降低。生产部门分为制造业、非制造业和运输业，运输服务是制造业和非制造业企业的投入。我们在两个方案中构建了四个案例，每个案例都有不同的目标和政策。在校准和估算相关参数后，我们比较了两种情景下的碳减排结果和经济波动。我们的研究结果表明，在提高碳排放税率或降低碳排放强度比的目标相同的情况下，在制造业部门实施提高碳排放税率或降低碳排放强度的政策与在交通运输部门实施相同的政策相比，前者能实现更大的碳减排量。同时，与后一种情况相比，前一种情况下的产出下降幅度更大，通胀率上升幅度更大。然而，当第一季度的碳减排量大致相同时，在交通运输部门实施的提高碳排放税率或降低碳排放强度的政策相对于在制造业部门实施的相同政策表现出更优越的绩效。这导致了较小的最终产出减少和较温和的通胀上升。总之，在同等碳减排水平下，交通部门实施的政策比制造业实施的政策产生更有利的经济结果。

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引用次数: 0

The risk of increasing energy demand while pursuing decarbonisation: the case of the e-fuels for the EU aviation sector 在追求去碳化的同时增加能源需求的风险：欧盟航空部门使用电子燃料的案例

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.11.007

M. Prussi, M. Noussan, L. Laveneziana, D. Chiaramonti

The European Union target of a net-zero economy by mid-century requires an unprecedented effort in the reduction of carbon emissions. Aviation is among the most difficult sectors to decarbonize, and since direct electrification is unlikely to become a viable option in the short-term, other alternatives are considered, including biofuels and e-fuels. The blending mandates recently approved in the ReFuelEU Aviation package (35% of e-fuels at 2050) will require devoting an important amount of renewable electricity to produce e-fuels, increasing the relative weight of aviation with respect other sectors in terms of energy consumption. Aviation accounts today for 13% of the EU27 (2019) energy consumption for transport, while in 2050 this is expected to reach the 22%. This “magnifying effect” for the energy required by the sector, due to the low overall conversion efficiency of e-fuel production, will likely foster a competition for the access to renewable energy. This shift toward the aviation sector may occur to detriment of other applications potentially most effective in decreasing carbon emissions per unit of electricity. This apparent dichotomy between GHG reduction and energy efficiency could reduce the actual effectiveness of existing policies and the possibility of fostering similar initiatives in other countries.

欧盟到本世纪中叶实现净零经济的目标要求在减少碳排放方面做出前所未有的努力。航空业是最难实现脱碳的行业之一，由于直接电气化在短期内不太可能成为可行的选择，因此需要考虑其他替代方案，包括生物燃料和电子燃料。欧盟航空燃料再利用一揽子计划（2050 年电子燃料占 35%）中最近批准的混合任务要求将大量可再生电力用于生产电子燃料，从而增加了航空与其他部门在能源消耗方面的相对比重。目前，航空占欧盟 27 国（2019 年）运输能源消耗的 13%，而 2050 年预计将达到 22%。由于电子燃料生产的整体转换效率较低，该行业所需能源的这种 "放大效应 "很可能会促进可再生能源的获取竞争。这种向航空部门的转移可能会损害其他在减少单位电力碳排放方面可能最有效的应用。减少温室气体排放与提高能源效率之间的这种明显对立可能会降低现有政策的实际效果，以及在其他国家促进类似倡议的可能性。

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引用次数: 0

Retrospective cross-sectional observational study on commuters' travel behaviour and preferences in Delhi: Impact of built environment, individual attitude and socio-economic factors 德里通勤者出行行为和偏好的回顾性横断面观察研究：建筑环境、个人态度和社会经济因素的影响

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.11.002

Tanya Sharma , Suresh Jain

This study examines the factors influencing the travel behaviour of Delhi's working population, utilizing retrospective cross-sectional data from 2005 to 2019 collected across four neighbourhoods. The research provides empirical evidence on how travel mode choices have evolved over time in response to changes in the built environment and socioeconomic conditions. GIS-based analysis was conducted to assess the impact of temporal variations in the built environment on travel behaviour. Results reveal a 21% increase in the reliance on private modes of transportation between 2005 and 2019, with the most significant rise observed in 4-wheeler usage. Conversely, bus usage declined by 32%, attributed to various factors including overcrowding, hygiene concerns, and perceived reliability issues. However, in 2019, Connaught Place reported the highest bus usage at 28%, attributed to its high bus stop density, while enhanced metro facilities across the neighbourhoods led to a 20% increase in overall metro ridership. Multinomial logistic regression analysis identified key socioeconomic determinants of travel behaviour, including age, gender, income, vehicle ownership, and commuter attitude. In 2005, two-wheeler preference over buses was primarily driven by vehicle ownership (O.R.: 620.95), gender (O.R.: 4.20), and income (O.R.: 1.28). By 2019, commuter attitude (ProPV) emerged as a significant factor, alongside vehicle ownership (O.R.: 136.72), ProPV (O.R.: 21.41), and income (O.R.: 2.14). A similar trend was observed for car usage, highlighting the increasing influence of commuter behaviour and attitudes on travel choices over time. These findings underscore critical policy implications for the development and enhancement of Delhi's transport system, offering insights that could be applicable to other cities facing similar challenges.

本研究利用 2005 年至 2019 年在四个社区收集的回顾性横截面数据，对影响德里工作人口出行行为的因素进行了研究。研究提供了实证证据，说明随着时间的推移，出行方式的选择是如何随着建筑环境和社会经济条件的变化而演变的。通过基于地理信息系统的分析，评估了建筑环境的时间变化对出行行为的影响。结果显示，2005 年至 2019 年间，人们对私人交通方式的依赖增加了 21%，其中四轮车的使用率增幅最大。相反，公共汽车的使用率下降了 32%，原因有很多，包括过度拥挤、卫生问题和认为的可靠性问题。然而，在 2019 年，康诺特广场的公交车使用率最高，达到 28%，这归因于其公交车站密度高，而各街区地铁设施的加强则使地铁总体乘客量增加了 20%。多项式逻辑回归分析确定了出行行为的主要社会经济决定因素，包括年龄、性别、收入、车辆拥有量和通勤态度。2005 年，两轮车相对于公共汽车的偏好主要受车辆拥有量（O.R.：620.95）、性别（O.R.：4.20）和收入（O.R.：1.28）的影响。到 2019 年，通勤态度（ProPV）与车辆拥有量（O.R.：136.72）、ProPV（O.R.：21.41）和收入（O.R.：2.14）一起成为重要因素。在汽车使用方面也观察到了类似的趋势，这表明随着时间的推移，通勤者的行为和态度对出行选择的影响越来越大。这些发现强调了发展和改善德里交通系统的重要政策影响，为面临类似挑战的其他城市提供了启示。

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引用次数: 0

How the establishment of carbon emission trading system affects ship emission reduction strategies designed for sulfur emission control area 碳排放交易体系的建立如何影响为硫排放控制区设计的船舶减排策略

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.11.006

Tingsong Wang , Peiyue Cheng , Yadong Wang

As the backbone of the international seaborne trade, the pollution and emission from shipping are highly concerned by governments and international organizations as well. The International Maritime Organization has designated five emission control areas (ECAs) to limit sulfur oxides emissions of ships. Meanwhile, the European Union has included the shipping industry in the EU Emission Trading System since 2024 to control their carbon emissions. The strategies like switching fuel, installing scrubber or detour, are commonly used to comply with the ECA regulation, but they may increase carbon emissions and possibly incur extra carbon trading cost. In this case, the shipping company should investigate the influence of marine emission trading system (METS) on emission reduction strategies used under ECA regulation. Therefore, this paper focuses on this problem and formulates it as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming model. Several numerical experiments are conducted to show the applicability of the proposed model. The results show that ship's detour behavior is inevitable under the ECA regulation, which incurs more carbon emissions. When METS regulation is not considered, the optimal emission reduction strategy is installing scrubber. In contrast, when METS regulation is considered, the optimal choice may be installing scrubber or fuel switching depending on different sailing route, which indicates the effect of METS on ship emission reduction strategy. Moreover, the fleet deployment and sailing speed of scrubber installation strategy are affected by METS regulation, while the strategies of fuel switching and using LNG-powered ship are almost unaffected. This indicates that installing scrubber is more easily affected by emission control policies.

作为国际海运贸易的支柱，航运业的污染和排放问题受到各国政府和国际组织的高度关注。国际海事组织划定了五个排放控制区（ECAs），限制船舶的硫氧化物排放。同时，欧盟从 2024 年起将航运业纳入欧盟排放交易体系，以控制其碳排放量。为遵守 ECA 法规，航运业通常会采用更换燃料、安装洗涤器或绕道等策略，但这些策略可能会增加碳排放量，并可能产生额外的碳交易成本。在这种情况下，航运公司应研究海洋排放交易系统（METS）对 ECA 法规下使用的减排策略的影响。因此，本文重点研究了这一问题，并将其表述为一个混合整数非线性编程模型。本文进行了多次数值实验，以证明所提模型的适用性。结果表明，在 ECA 法规下，船舶绕航行为不可避免，会产生更多的碳排放。在不考虑 METS 法规的情况下，最佳减排策略是安装洗涤器。相反，当考虑 METS 法规时，根据不同的航行路线，最优选择可能是安装洗涤器或燃料转换，这说明了 METS 对船舶减排策略的影响。此外，安装洗涤器策略的船队部署和航行速度受到 METS 法规的影响，而燃料转换和使用液化天然气动力船的策略几乎不受影响。这表明安装洗涤器更容易受到排放控制政策的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Analyzing purchase intentions of used electric vehicles through consumer experiences: A structural equation modeling approach 通过消费者体验分析二手电动汽车的购买意向：结构方程模型法

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.10.038

Abbas Sheykhfard , Mohammad Azmoodeh , Subasish Das , Boniphace Kutela

The transition rate to electric vehicles (EVs) has accelerated globally as indicated by a notable rise in the number of used EVs in the market. However, most existing studies focused on the attributes related to the new EVs. This study explores the factors influencing consumer purchase intentions of used EVs using structural equation modeling (SEM). Drawing on a survey of 992 used EV owners in the United States, the research examines the impact of sociodemographic characteristics, purchase details, information sources, pre-purchase concerns, current driving and charging experiences, and future purchase intentions. The findings reveal that charging ease has the strongest positive direct effect on future purchase intentions, while information sources and driving experience show negative direct effects. Sociodemographic characteristics and pre-purchase concerns indirectly influence future intentions through other factors. More specifically, income level, education, and Hispanic ethnicity positively contribute to the sociodemographic profile of EV owners. Further, traditional media plays a significant role in disseminating EV information, although online searches show a negative relationship with information source engagement. This comprehensive approach provides a nuanced understanding of the dynamics within the used EV market, ultimately supporting sustainable transportation initiatives. The study highlights the importance of addressing charging infrastructure, battery performance, and affordability concerns to enhance the used EV market's growth.

全球向电动汽车（EV）过渡的速度加快，市场上二手电动汽车的数量明显增加。然而，现有的大多数研究都集中在与新电动汽车相关的属性上。本研究利用结构方程模型（SEM）探讨了影响消费者购买二手电动汽车意向的因素。通过对美国 992 名二手电动车车主的调查，研究探讨了社会人口特征、购买细节、信息来源、购买前的顾虑、当前的驾驶和充电体验以及未来购买意愿的影响。研究结果表明，充电便利性对未来购买意向的直接正面影响最大，而信息来源和驾驶经验则显示出负面的直接影响。社会人口特征和购买前的顾虑会通过其他因素间接影响未来购买意愿。更具体地说，收入水平、教育程度和西班牙裔对电动汽车车主的社会人口特征有积极影响。此外，传统媒体在传播电动汽车信息方面发挥着重要作用，尽管在线搜索与信息来源参与度呈负相关。这种综合方法提供了对二手电动车市场动态的细致入微的了解，最终支持了可持续交通倡议。该研究强调了解决充电基础设施、电池性能和经济性问题对促进二手电动车市场发展的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Policy implications of electrifying land freight transport towards carbon-neutral in China 中国陆路货运电气化对实现碳中和的政策影响

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.11.004

Jiaqi Qian , Ge Wang , Ting Yin , Yuxuan Mao , Siyuan Chen , Yan Li , Jiangfeng Liu , Qi Zhang

Electrification is currently the most promising technology for decarbonizing the land transport sector in China. Economic incentives and regulatory measures have been proposed or adopted to promote electric trucks and trains. However, the policy pathway to carbon neutrality and its costs and benefits remain unclear. An integrated dynamic economic-environmental assessment model for the land freight transport sector is proposed and applied to simulate the impact of different policy pathways during 2021–2060. The results show that China's land freight transport sector could reach carbon peak between 2029 and 2040, while becoming carbon neutral by 2060, with the average carbon abatement cost ranging from 2346 to 61 RMB/t. Due to the high carbon intensity of the current electricity system and the high cost of electric trucks, promoting electrification in the land freight transport sector before 2031 is neither economic nor environmentally friendly. However, from a long-term perspective, the hurry-up electrification could save 5.34 Gt of the total carbon budget at the cost of emitting 0.49 Gt more CO₂ in the first decade (2021–2030) and spending 74.42 trillion RMB more in accumulated investment compared to the delayed electrification scenario. Policymakers should pay attention to such trade-offs between short-term and long-term benefits. The impacts of other key features of the policy pathway towards carbon neutrality of the land freight sector, such as the road-to-tail ratio and the growth rate of freight turnover, were also analyzed.

电气化是目前中国陆路交通领域最有希望实现脱碳的技术。已经提出或采取了经济激励和监管措施，以推广电动卡车和火车。然而，实现碳中和的政策路径及其成本和收益仍不明确。本文提出了陆路货运部门的动态经济-环境综合评估模型，并应用该模型模拟了 2021-2060 年间不同政策路径的影响。结果表明，中国陆路货运业可在 2029 年至 2040 年达到碳峰值，到 2060 年实现碳中和，平均碳减排成本在 2346 元/吨至 61 元/吨之间。由于目前电力系统的高碳强度和电动卡车的高成本，在 2031 年之前在陆路货运领域推广电气化既不经济也不环保。然而，从长远角度来看，与延迟电气化方案相比，匆忙电气化方案可以节省 5.34 千兆吨的碳预算，但代价是在前十年（2021-2030 年）多排放 0.49 千兆吨的二氧化碳，累计投资多花费 74.42 万亿元人民币。政策制定者应注意这种短期与长期利益之间的权衡。此外，还分析了陆路货运部门碳中和政策路径的其他关键特征的影响，如路尾比和货运周转量增长率。

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引用次数: 0

Wireless charging facility location decision in the context of microscopic traffic dynamics 微观交通动力学背景下的无线充电设施选址决策

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.11.003

Ning Guo , Changmin Jiang , Liquan Guo , Xiang Ling , Chaoyun Wu , Qingyi Hao

The battery electric vehicle (BEV) is one of the viable alternatives to conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV), and it is promoted to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. However, the long charging time and insufficient charging facilities lead to “range anxiety”, inhibiting the development of BEVs. Wireless charging (WC) technology has begun to be applied to BEV, helping achieve dynamic recharging when vehicles move on the roadway. An adequate deployment of WC facilities allows BEV travelers to complete trips without needing to stop for recharging. Thus, the WC facility location decision is an essential optimization problem to solve before the technology matures and the facilities are installed. As the vehicle dynamics, such as speed and acceleration, depend on the traffic state, the energy consumption is also dynamic. The deployment of WC facilities based on constant speed and energy consumption may not satisfy the charging needs, and energy stored in the battery can even run out during the trip. Microscopic traffic dynamics are considered in the location optimization problem of the WC facility by introducing a car-following simulation. At a given BEV battery capacity and WC facility number, the shortest length of each facility allowing no-stopping recharging is calculated by the bisection method. With an increase in BEV demand, the societal cost (including both BEVs and WC facilities) increases, but BEV battery capacity reduces, and both WC facility number and length rise based on the optimization method. Similar tendencies emerge even if the drivers have heterogeneity of aggressive or nonaggressive driving behavior. Policy implications (including WC facility replacement and renovation, financial support, safety-driving advertisements, and legal punishment policies) are proposed to promote the development of WC facilities. Our research outcomes can provide a logical design framework for commercializing and deploying the WC system and further reduce the greenhouse emissions of the transport industry by increasing the penetration rate of electric vehicles.

电池电动汽车（BEV）是传统内燃机汽车（ICEV）的可行替代品之一，其推广旨在减少道路交通的温室气体排放。然而，充电时间长和充电设施不足导致了 "续航焦虑"，阻碍了 BEV 的发展。无线充电（WC）技术已开始应用于 BEV，帮助实现车辆在道路上行驶时的动态充电。无线充电设施的充分部署可使 BEV 旅行者无需停车充电即可完成旅行。因此，在技术成熟和设施安装之前，WC 设施位置决策是一个必须解决的优化问题。由于速度和加速度等车辆动态取决于交通状态，因此能源消耗也是动态的。根据恒定的速度和能耗部署 WC 设施可能无法满足充电需求，电池中储存的能量甚至可能在行程中耗尽。在 WC 设施的位置优化问题中，通过引入汽车跟随模拟，考虑了微观交通动态。在给定 BEV 电池容量和 WC 设施数量的情况下，通过分段法计算出每个设施允许不停车充电的最短长度。根据优化方法，随着 BEV 需求的增加，社会成本（包括 BEV 和 WC 设施）会增加，但 BEV 电池容量会降低，WC 设施数量和长度都会增加。即使驾驶者的激进或非激进驾驶行为存在异质性，也会出现类似的趋势。我们还提出了促进 WC 设施发展的政策影响（包括 WC 设施的更换和改造、财政支持、安全驾驶广告和法律惩罚政策）。我们的研究成果可以为 WC 系统的商业化和部署提供合理的设计框架，并通过提高电动汽车的普及率进一步减少交通行业的温室气体排放。

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The impact of the U.S.-China trade war on air and ocean shipments 中美贸易战对空运和海运的影响

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.11.001

Li Zou , Martin E. Dresner , Chunyan Yu

This paper estimates the impact of the U.S.-China trade war and the consequent increase in trade costs on air and ocean shipments between the two countries. Using panel data covering U.S. exports and imports with its trading partners from 2016 to 2021, we estimate gravity models and find evidence showing negative impacts of the trade war on both U.S. imports from China and U.S. exports to China. However, there are differential impacts on air shipments and ocean shipments. Specifically, we find that U.S. tariff increases on Chinese goods primarily had a negative effect on air imports from China, whereas China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods mainly had a negative impact on U.S. ocean exports. These findings contribute to the growing body of evidence on the effects of the U.S.-China trade war, highlighting the varying impacts of the trade war on different modes of transportation that drive the U.S.-China trade relationship.

本文估算了中美贸易战以及随之而来的贸易成本增加对两国间空运和海运的影响。我们利用 2016 年至 2021 年美国与其贸易伙伴进出口的面板数据，对引力模型进行了估计，发现有证据显示贸易战对美国从中国进口和美国对中国出口都产生了负面影响。不过，空运和海运受到的影响有所不同。具体而言，我们发现美国对中国商品加征关税主要对从中国空运进口产生负面影响，而中国对美国商品加征报复性关税主要对美国海运出口产生负面影响。这些发现为越来越多关于中美贸易战影响的证据做出了贡献，凸显了贸易战对推动中美贸易关系的不同运输方式的不同影响。

引用次数: 0