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Distributionally robust optimization for pre-disaster facility location problem with 3D printing 利用 3D 打印技术对灾前设施选址问题进行分布式稳健优化
IF 8.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2024.103844
Peng Sun , Dongpan Zhao , Qingxin Chen , Xinyao Yu , Ning Zhu
The ongoing advancement of 3D printing technology provides an innovative approach to addressing challenges in disaster relief operations. By utilizing a variety of printing materials, 3D printers can produce essential disaster relief resources needed for disaster relief, effectively satisfying the varied demands that arise after disasters. This paper examines the joint optimization of pre-disaster and post-disaster humanitarian operations. Given the significant unpredictability of natural disasters, we introduce a two-stage distributionally robust optimization model to tackle the uncertainty in the demand for various relief resources. The first stage of the model involves decisions related to pre-disaster facility location, 3D printer deployment, and resource allocation. The second stage model addresses the post-disaster rescue activities, including decisions on the production and transportation decisions of relief resources. To address demand uncertainty, we propose an ambiguity set using the Wasserstein metric and reformulate the two-stage distributionally robust optimization model into a tractable formulation. To solve this problem, we employ a Benders decomposition algorithm with an acceleration strategy. The performance of our proposed model and algorithm is evaluated via a real-world case. Numerical experiments reveal that our distributionally robust optimization model outperforms the benchmark model across various metrics. Additionally, we conduct a series of effect analyses and provide managerial insights for decision-makers involved in disaster relief operations.
三维打印技术的不断进步为应对救灾行动中的挑战提供了一种创新方法。通过利用各种打印材料,3D 打印机可以生产出救灾所需的重要救灾资源,有效满足灾后出现的各种需求。本文探讨了灾前和灾后人道主义行动的联合优化问题。鉴于自然灾害具有很大的不可预测性,我们引入了一个两阶段分布稳健优化模型,以应对各种救灾资源需求的不确定性。该模型的第一阶段涉及灾前设施选址、3D 打印机部署和资源分配等相关决策。第二阶段模型涉及灾后救援活动,包括救援资源的生产和运输决策。为解决需求不确定性问题,我们提出了一个使用瓦瑟斯坦度量的模糊集,并将两阶段分布式稳健优化模型重新表述为一个可操作的公式。为了解决这个问题,我们采用了带有加速策略的本德斯分解算法。我们通过实际案例评估了所提模型和算法的性能。数值实验表明,我们的分布稳健优化模型在各种指标上都优于基准模型。此外,我们还进行了一系列效果分析,为参与救灾行动的决策者提供了管理见解。
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引用次数: 0
Traffic Flow Outlier Detection for Smart Mobility Using Gaussian Process Regression Assisted Stochastic Differential Equations 利用高斯过程回归辅助随机微分方程检测智能交通流量异常值
IF 8.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2024.103840
Qixiu Cheng , Guiqi Dai , Bowei Ru , Zhiyuan Liu , Wei Ma , Hongzhe Liu , Ziyuan Gu
Current methods for detecting outliers in traffic streaming data often struggle to capture real-time dynamic changes in traffic conditions and differentiate between genuine changes and anomalies. This study proposes a novel approach to outlier detection in traffic streaming data that effectively addresses stochasticity and uncertainty in observations. The proposed method utilizes Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). By employing SDEs, we can capture drift and diffusion estimates in traffic streaming data, providing a more comprehensive modeling of the data generation process. Integrating GPR allows precise Bayesian posterior inferences for outlier detection within the SDE framework. To improve practicality, we introduce a flexible threshold-setting mechanism using statistical testing to control the false positive rate. This adaptability helps strike a balance between model fitting and complexity in outlier detection. Compared to traditional SDE-based methods, our SDE-GPR outlier detection method demonstrates enhanced robustness and better adaptability to the complexities of traffic systems. This is evidenced through an empirical study using time series data collected in California, USA. Overall, this study introduces a more advanced and accurate approach to outlier detection in traffic streaming data, paving the way for improved real-time traffic condition monitoring and management.
目前在交通流数据中检测异常值的方法往往难以捕捉交通状况的实时动态变化,也难以区分真正的变化和异常。本研究提出了一种在交通流数据中检测异常值的新方法,可有效解决观测中的随机性和不确定性问题。所提出的方法利用了随机微分方程 (SDE) 和高斯过程回归 (GPR)。通过使用 SDE,我们可以捕捉到交通流数据中的漂移和扩散估计,为数据生成过程提供更全面的建模。整合 GPR 可以在 SDE 框架内进行精确的贝叶斯后验推断,从而进行离群点检测。为了提高实用性,我们引入了灵活的阈值设置机制,利用统计测试来控制误报率。这种适应性有助于在离群点检测的模型拟合和复杂性之间取得平衡。与传统的基于 SDE 的方法相比,我们的 SDE-GPR 离群点检测方法显示出更强的鲁棒性和对复杂交通系统的更好适应性。通过使用在美国加利福尼亚州收集的时间序列数据进行实证研究,证明了这一点。总之,本研究为交通流数据中的离群点检测引入了一种更先进、更准确的方法,为改善实时交通状况监控和管理铺平了道路。
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引用次数: 0
Prototype augmentation-based spatiotemporal anomaly detection in smart mobility systems 智能移动系统中基于增强的时空异常检测原型
IF 8.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2024.103815
Zhen Zhou , Ziyuan Gu , Anfeng Jiang , Zhiyuan Liu , Yi Zhao , Hongzhe Liu
In complex mobility systems, the widespread presence of spatiotemporal anomaly patterns poses substantial challenges to effective governance and decision-making. A notable example of this challenge is evident in traffic anomalous incidents detection, where the combination of low accuracy in anomaly detection and poor scenario generalization performance significantly impacts the overall performance of anomaly detection. This paper introduces a prototype augmentation-based framework tailored for spatiotemporal anomaly detection in the context of smart mobility system. This framework utilizes prototype augmentation technique to enhance the diversity of anomaly patterns, ensuring that the integrity of the original anomaly information is preserved. Essentially, the prototype augmentation-based anomaly detector employed in this framework is a hybrid unsupervised-supervised stacking ensemble. It leverages the strengths of unsupervised component learners to generate pseudo dimensions while integrating a supervised meta-detector for evaluating the component learners’ performance across diverse environmental contexts. Additionally, we materialize this framework and assess its performance in detecting anomalous line-pressing incidents. Empirical results demonstrate our framework’s superior accuracy and transferability in detecting anomalous traffic incidents compared to alternative methods using a real-world dataset.
在复杂的交通系统中,时空异常模式的广泛存在给有效的治理和决策带来了巨大挑战。交通异常事件检测就是这一挑战的一个明显例子,异常检测的低准确率和糟糕的场景泛化性能严重影响了异常检测的整体性能。本文介绍了一个基于原型增强的框架,该框架专为智能移动系统中的时空异常检测而定制。该框架利用原型增强技术来提高异常模式的多样性,同时确保保留原始异常信息的完整性。从本质上讲,本框架采用的基于原型增强的异常检测器是一种无监督-监督混合堆叠集合。它利用无监督组件学习器的优势生成伪维度,同时集成了一个监督元检测器,用于评估组件学习器在不同环境背景下的性能。此外,我们还将这一框架具体化,并评估其在检测异常压线事件方面的性能。实证结果表明,与使用真实世界数据集的其他方法相比,我们的框架在检测异常交通事故方面具有更高的准确性和可移植性。
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引用次数: 0
Personalized origin–destination travel time estimation with active adversarial inverse reinforcement learning and Transformer 利用主动对抗逆向强化学习和变形器估算个性化的出发地-目的地旅行时间
IF 8.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2024.103839
Shan Liu , Ya Zhang , Zhengli Wang , Xiang Liu , Hai Yang
Travel time estimation is important for instant delivery, vehicle routing, and ride-hailing. Most studies estimate the travel time of specified routes, and only a few studies pay attention to origin–destination travel time estimation (OD-TTE) without a specified route. Moreover, most of these studies on OD-TTE ignore the personalized route preference and the cost of data annotation. To fill this research gap, we analyze the individual route preference and propose a personalized origin–destination travel time estimation method based on active adversarial inverse reinforcement learning (AA-IRL) and Transformer. To analyze the personalized route preference, we integrate adversarial inverse reinforcement learning with active learning, which effectively reduces the cost of sample annotation. After inferring the possible routes, we propose AdaBoost multi-fusion graph convolutional Transformer network (AMGC-Transformer) for travel time estimation. Numerical experiments conducted on ride-hailing and online food delivery trajectories in China validate the advantage of our method. Compared to relevant studies, our approach can improve F1-score of route inference by 2.50–3.35% and reduce the mean absolute error of OD-TTE by 7.44–11.66%.
旅行时间估算对于即时配送、车辆路由选择和打车服务非常重要。大多数研究估算的是指定路线的旅行时间,只有少数研究关注无指定路线的起点-终点旅行时间估算(OD-TTE)。此外,大多数关于 OD-TTE 的研究都忽略了个性化路线偏好和数据标注成本。为了填补这一研究空白,我们分析了个人路线偏好,并提出了一种基于主动对抗逆强化学习(AA-IRL)和 Transformer 的个性化起点-终点旅行时间估算方法。为了分析个性化路线偏好,我们将对抗逆强化学习与主动学习相结合,从而有效降低了样本标注的成本。在推断出可能的路线后,我们提出了用于旅行时间估算的 AdaBoost 多融合图卷积变换器网络(AMGC-Transformer)。在中国的打车和在线送餐轨迹上进行的数值实验验证了我们方法的优势。与相关研究相比,我们的方法可将路线推断的 F1 分数提高 2.50-3.35%,将 OD-TTE 的平均绝对误差降低 7.44-11.66%。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic matching radius decision model for on-demand ride services: A deep multi-task learning approach 按需乘车服务的动态匹配半径决策模型:深度多任务学习方法
IF 8.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2024.103822
Taijie Chen , Zijian Shen , Siyuan Feng , Linchuan Yang , Jintao Ke
As ride-hailing services have experienced significant growth, most research has concentrated on the dispatching mode, where drivers must accept the platform’s assigned trip requests. However, the broadcasting mode, in which drivers can freely choose their preferred orders from those broadcast by the platform, has received less attention. One crucial but challenging task in such a system is the determination of the matching radius, which usually varies across space, time, and real-time supply/demand characteristics. This study develops a Deep Learning-based Matching Radius Decision (DL-MRD) model that predicts key system performance metrics for a range of matching radii, which enables the ride-hailing platform to select an optimal matching radius that maximizes overall system performance according to real-time supply and demand information. To simultaneously maximize multiple system performance metrics for matching radius determination, we devise a novel multi-task learning algorithm named Weighted Exponential Smoothing Multi-task (WESM) learning strategy that enhances convergence speed of each task (corresponding to the optimization of one metric) and delivers more accurate overall predictions. We evaluate our methods in a simulation environment designed for broadcasting-mode-based ride-hailing service. Our findings reveal that dynamically adjusting matching radii based on our proposed approach significantly improves system performance.
随着叫车服务的大幅增长,大多数研究都集中在调度模式上,即司机必须接受平台分配的出行请求。然而,司机可以从平台广播的订单中自由选择自己喜欢的订单的广播模式却较少受到关注。在这种系统中,一个关键但具有挑战性的任务是确定匹配半径,而匹配半径通常因空间、时间和实时供需特征而异。本研究开发了基于深度学习的匹配半径决策(DL-MRD)模型,该模型可预测一系列匹配半径的关键系统性能指标,从而使打车平台能够根据实时供需信息选择最佳匹配半径,实现系统整体性能的最大化。为了在确定匹配半径时同时最大化多个系统性能指标,我们设计了一种名为 "加权指数平滑多任务(WESM)学习策略 "的新型多任务学习算法,它能提高每个任务(对应于一个指标的优化)的收敛速度,并提供更准确的整体预测。我们在为基于广播模式的打车服务设计的模拟环境中对我们的方法进行了评估。我们的研究结果表明,根据我们提出的方法动态调整匹配半径可显著提高系统性能。
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引用次数: 0
Stockyard allocation in dry bulk ports considering resource consumption reduction of spraying operations 考虑到减少喷洒作业的资源消耗,干散货港口的堆场分配
IF 8.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2024.103816
Wenyuan Wang , Jiaqi Guo , Qi Tian , Yun Peng , Zhen Cao , Keke Liu , Shitao Peng
Stockyard allocation is a crucial segment of operational decision-making in dry bulk ports (DBPs). The stockyard allocation plan determines the storage position and duration of each stockpile to avoid operational delays in stockyards. Spraying operations, a unique operation in DBPs, are significantly influenced by stockyard allocation plans. Port operators regularly conduct spraying operations to prevent dust diffusion during the storage of dry bulk materials in stockyards. The spraying operation system consumes substantial electrical energy to transport the water to the designated material pile and spray large amounts of water onto its surface. Due to the layout constraints of pipelines and spraying nozzles, different stockyard allocation plans lead the varying consumptions of electrical energy and water resources for spraying operations. However, previous studies on the stockyard allocation problem frequently ignore the impacts of the stockyard allocation plan on the resource consumption of spraying operations. To fill this gap, this paper proposes a stockyard allocation model that uniquely considers the resource consumption of spraying operations to balance operation efficiency and resource consumption in stockyards from a global perspective. With the goal of minimizing the total cost, including operation delay penalties in stockyards and the electricity and water costs of spraying operations, a series of comprehensive experiments was conducted based on practical data collected from a major DBP in China under varying stockpile densities and stockyard efficiency properties. The results clearly show significant differences in the stockyard allocation plan and the total cost resulting from considering and disregarding the resource consumption of spraying operations in the stockyard allocation decision-making process. With only a 3.09% increase in average delay time in stockyards, the proposed model can reduce the total cost by 19.26%, the electricity cost by 54.06% and the water cost reduction by 35.09%. Meanwhile, the carbon emissions are reduced 75 tons on average for spraying operations and the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) performs well on large-scale instances. The proposed model can avoid unnecessary resource consumption of spraying operations with acceptable operation delay penalties in stockyards.
堆场分配是干散货港口(DBPs)运营决策的关键环节。堆场分配计划决定了每个堆场的存储位置和持续时间,以避免堆场作业延误。喷洒作业是干散货港口的一项独特作业,受堆场分配计划的影响很大。港口运营商定期进行喷洒作业,以防止干散装物料在堆场储存期间的粉尘扩散。喷淋作业系统需要消耗大量电能,才能将水输送到指定的物料堆,并将大量的水喷洒到物料堆表面。由于管道和喷嘴布局的限制,不同的堆场分配方案导致喷洒作业的电能和水资源消耗各不相同。然而,以往关于堆场分配问题的研究往往忽略了堆场分配方案对喷洒作业资源消耗的影响。为了填补这一空白,本文提出了一种堆场分配模型,该模型独特地考虑了喷洒作业的资源消耗,从全局角度平衡了堆场的作业效率和资源消耗。以总成本(包括堆场作业延迟惩罚和喷洒作业的电费和水费)最小化为目标,在不同堆存密度和堆场效率属性下,基于从中国某主要 DBP 收集的实际数据进行了一系列综合实验。结果清楚地表明,在堆场分配决策过程中考虑和不考虑喷洒作业的资源消耗,在堆场分配方案和总成本方面会产生显著差异。在堆场平均延迟时间仅增加 3.09% 的情况下,所提出的模型可使总成本降低 19.26%,电费降低 54.06%,水费降低 35.09%。同时,喷洒作业的碳排放量平均减少了 75 吨,鲸鱼优化算法(WOA)在大规模实例中表现良好。所提出的模型可避免不必要的喷洒作业资源消耗,同时可接受堆场中的作业延迟惩罚。
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引用次数: 0
Inhibitors in ridesharing firms from developing Nations: A novel Integrated MCDM – Text Mining approach using Large-Scale data 发展中国家共享乘车公司的阻碍因素:使用大规模数据的新型集成式 MCDM - 文本挖掘方法
IF 8.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2024.103832
Souradeep Koley , Mukesh Kumar Barua , Arnab Bisi
Our study identifies major impediments (or inhibitors) faced by Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) such as Uber, Lyft, and Ola within the context of developing nations. While existing studies on TNCs centered on passenger adoption and drivers’ perspectives, we quantitively assess the inhibitors and provide mitigation strategies. To achieve this, we use machine learning methods, particularly Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and emotion analysis on large-scale public data, to understand and classify consumer perspectives on TNCs into multiple themes. The latent theme helps experts of different ridesharing firms get a holistic perspective of riders on TNCs, assisting them in identifying the inhibitors. Using the Delphi method, we were able to achieve a consensus in identifying six primary and nineteen secondary inhibitors. We rank the primary inhibitors based on the optimal weight obtained using the Bayesian Best Worst Method. To minimize uncertainty and imprecise judgment in decision-making, we combine the grey theory with the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (Grey-DEMATEL) to identify the interrelationships among the secondary inhibitors. Moreover, we perform sensitivity analysis to show the robustness of our solution. Contrary to conventional perception, our findings indicate that the government is the primary inhibitor for TNCs due to current policy and discrepancies in regulations between central and states. Additionally, our studies introduce five new inhibitors to the literature, which include drivers inciting trip cancellation to avoid commission, internal coalition of drivers, commission miscomprehension among drivers, limited infrastructure for cashless operation, and internal conflict and dysfunction within the department. The findings from large-scale data analysis, coupled with group decision-making, offer various managerial implications that can guide future managers and policymakers to enhance the operational efficiency of firms.
我们的研究确定了 Uber、Lyft 和 Ola 等运输网络公司(TNC)在发展中国家面临的主要障碍(或抑制因素)。现有的跨国公司研究主要集中在乘客和司机的角度,而我们则对抑制因素进行了量化评估,并提供了缓解策略。为此,我们使用机器学习方法,特别是大规模公共数据的潜在德里希勒分配(LDA)和情感分析,来理解消费者对 TNC 的看法并将其分为多个主题。潜在主题有助于不同共享出行公司的专家从整体角度了解乘客对跨国公司的看法,帮助他们找出抑制因素。利用德尔菲法,我们在确定六个主要抑制因素和十九个次要抑制因素方面达成了共识。我们根据贝叶斯最差法得出的最佳权重对主要抑制因素进行排序。为了尽量减少决策中的不确定性和不精确判断,我们将灰色理论与决策试验和评估实验室(Grey-DEMATEL)相结合,以确定二级抑制剂之间的相互关系。此外,我们还进行了敏感性分析,以显示我们解决方案的稳健性。与传统观念相反,我们的研究结果表明,由于现行政策以及中央和各州之间的法规差异,政府是跨国公司的主要抑制因素。此外,我们的研究还在文献中引入了五个新的抑制因素,包括司机煽动取消行程以规避佣金、司机内部联合、司机对佣金的误解、无现金运营的基础设施有限以及部门内部的冲突和功能失调。大规模数据分析的结果与群体决策相结合,提供了各种管理启示,可指导未来的管理者和政策制定者提高企业的运营效率。
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引用次数: 0
Socially responsible e-commerce supply chains: Sales mode preference and store brand introduction 对社会负责的电子商务供应链:销售模式偏好和商店品牌介绍
IF 8.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2024.103829
Xinxin Zhang , Xiuyi Zhang , Junran Huang
Motivated by the widespread adoption of corporate social responsibility (CSR), we investigate a socially responsible e-commerce supply chain where the E-platform owns a store brand product and supports online sales of the manufacturer’s product under agency selling or reselling. The socially responsible firm has a mixed objective of its profit and consumer surplus. We explore how the firms’ CSR concern affects their decisions and economic performance. Our results contradict conventional wisdom which suggests that a firm has to sacrifice profitability to achieve social responsibility and that a firm’s CSR concern benefits its supply chain partner. Instead, we show that under agency selling, the E-platform’s concern on consumers can improve its own profit while harming the manufacturer’s profit. Furthermore, when both firms are socially responsible, their consumer concern can improve their profits simultaneously under reselling, leading to a “doing well by doing good” effect. As horizontal or vertical differentiation between the two products increases, this effect is more likely to be realized. Regarding firms’ sales mode preferences, in a traditional for-profit supply chain, agency selling is the only mode preferred by both parties. However, in a socially responsible supply chain, they can achieve preference alignment under either agency selling or reselling.
在企业社会责任(CSR)被广泛采用的推动下,我们研究了一个具有社会责任感的电子商务供应链,在该供应链中,电子平台拥有商店品牌产品,并以代理销售或转售的方式支持制造商产品的在线销售。具有社会责任感的企业具有利润和消费者剩余的混合目标。我们探讨了企业社会责任如何影响其决策和经济表现。我们的研究结果与传统观点相悖,传统观点认为企业必须牺牲利润率才能实现社会责任,而且企业的社会责任关注会使其供应链伙伴受益。相反,我们的研究表明,在代理销售的情况下,电子平台对消费者的关注可以提高自身的利润,同时损害制造商的利润。此外,当两家公司都具有社会责任感时,它们对消费者的关注可以在转售过程中同时提高利润,从而产生 "行善积德 "效应。随着两种产品之间的横向或纵向差异的增加,这种效应更有可能实现。关于企业的销售模式偏好,在传统的营利性供应链中,代理销售是双方都偏好的唯一模式。然而,在社会责任供应链中,无论是代理销售还是转售,双方都可以实现偏好一致。
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引用次数: 0
Distributionally robust optimization for minimizing price fluctuations in quota system 配额制中最小化价格波动的分布式稳健优化
IF 8.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2024.103812
Chi Xie , Zheng Cui , Daniel Zhuoyu Long , Jin Qi
Quota systems play a crucial role in regulating public-interest goods and controlling negative externalities, with a primary focus on social impacts rather than economic benefits. This paper examines the decision-making process for quota release, aiming to control growth rates and ensure price stability over time. We first develop a chance-constrained problem for quota systems, solving it using sample average approximation. Due to computational demands, alternative approximation methods are explored. We consider two types of quota systems: mature systems with known distributions and newly established systems with distributional ambiguity. For mature systems, Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is used to approximate the chance constraint, while for newly established systems, worst-case CVaR is employed within a robust optimization framework and the binary search algorithm is derived to efficiently solve the problem. The proposed models’ effectiveness is validated through computational studies using data from Singapore’s Vehicle Quota System. With known distributions, our CVaR sample average approximation (CVaR-SAA) model outperforms traditional models, reducing violation probability by more than 56.32%. With distributional ambiguity, worst-case CVaR approximation robust optimization (WCVaR-RO) model provides superior solutions, particularly in maximum violation probability (MVP). In the most notable case, WCVaR-RO reduces the MVP by over 53.37%. This research offers valuable insights into the management of quota systems.
配额制度在调节公益产品和控制负外部性方面发挥着至关重要的作用,其主要重点是社会影响而非经济效益。本文研究了配额发放的决策过程,旨在控制增长率并确保价格长期稳定。我们首先提出了配额制度的机会约束问题,并使用样本平均近似法进行求解。由于计算需求,我们还探索了其他近似方法。我们考虑了两类配额制:已知分布的成熟配额制和分布不明确的新配额制。对于成熟系统,使用条件风险值(CVaR)来近似机会约束;对于新建立的系统,在稳健优化框架内使用最坏情况 CVaR,并推导出二进制搜索算法来高效解决问题。通过使用新加坡车辆配额系统的数据进行计算研究,验证了建议模型的有效性。在已知分布的情况下,我们的 CVaR 样本平均近似(CVaR-SAA)模型优于传统模型,违规概率降低了 56.32% 以上。在分布不明确的情况下,最坏情况 CVaR 近似稳健优化(WCVaR-RO)模型提供了出色的解决方案,尤其是在最大违规概率(MVP)方面。在最显著的情况下,WCVaR-RO 将 MVP 降低了 53.37% 以上。这项研究为配额系统的管理提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of geographic risk factors on disaster mass evacuation strategies: A smart hybrid optimization 地理风险因素对灾害大规模疏散策略的影响:智能混合优化
IF 8.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2024.103825
Ahmad Jafarian , Tobias Andersson Granberg , Reza Zanjirani Farahani
This paper investigates an urban Emergency Evacuation Network Design (EEND) problem on a large scale when geographical risk in different areas varies. The decisions to make are (i) determining active shelters, (ii) selecting evacuation routes, and (iii) managing the supply of relief commodities from distribution centers to shelters. A region prone to floods and hurricanes is divided into zones, each with a specific vulnerability risk. For each zone, a risk measure is calculated by combining the risk factors –transporting people and relief commodities and the placement of temporary shelters. The objective is to minimize the maximum risk across the network, ensuring a balanced distribution of risk. A combinatorial scenario planning approach is developed to manage the uncertainty in disaster severity and the evacuee numbers. To incorporate varied geographical risks, a smart hybrid optimization approach as a new solution technique is developed, tuned, and validated to solve the EEND problem. The proposed approach uses directed local search structures designed for the EEND problem and an AI-based self-parameter tuning module, enhancing performance. To extract insights, Rennes, France, is considered a case study. The results indicate a reduction in casualties using a min–max formulation compared to traditional sum-risk objectives. Further, a detailed evacuation plan that increases the number of city regions enhances EEND performance. Practical insights suggest minimizing the number of shelters to the essential capacity needed to host all evacuees, as additional shelters may lead to increased evacuation and supply routes, potentially in areas with higher risk.
本文研究了当不同地区的地理风险不同时的大规模城市紧急疏散网络设计(EEND)问题。需要做出的决策包括:(i) 确定活动避难所;(ii) 选择疏散路线;(iii) 管理从配送中心到避难所的救灾物资供应。易受洪水和飓风侵袭的地区被划分为若干区域,每个区域都有特定的脆弱性风险。对于每个区域,通过综合风险因素--人员和救灾物资的运输以及临时避难所的安置--计算出风险度量。目标是最大限度地降低整个网络的最大风险,确保风险的均衡分布。为管理灾害严重程度和疏散人数的不确定性,开发了一种组合情景规划方法。为了纳入不同的地理风险,开发了一种智能混合优化方法作为新的解决技术,并对其进行了调整和验证,以解决 EEND 问题。所提出的方法使用了为 EEND 问题设计的定向局部搜索结构和基于人工智能的自参数调整模块,从而提高了性能。为深入了解该方法,我们以法国雷恩市为案例进行了研究。结果表明,与传统的总和风险目标相比,使用最小-最大公式可减少伤亡人数。此外,增加城市区域数量的详细疏散计划也提高了 EEND 的性能。实际经验表明,避难所的数量应尽量减少到容纳所有疏散人员所需的基本能力,因为增加避难所可能会导致疏散和补给路线的增加,而且有可能是在风险较高的地区。
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Transportation Research Part E-Logistics and Transportation Review
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