Travel Behaviour and Society最新文献_第3页

Learning nonlinearity and measuring uncertainty--a multi-task neural network and additive gaussian process based travel choice model 学习非线性和测量不确定性——基于多任务神经网络和加性高斯过程的旅行选择模型

IF 5.7 2区工程技术 Q1 TRANSPORTATION

Travel Behaviour and Society

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.tbs.2026.101247

Sha Zhang , Yao Dong , Peter J. Jin , Shichao Sun , Fei Yang

Discrete choice model (DCM) is a classical framework for modelling an individual’s travel choice. However, its oversimplified architecture of utility function may limit its performance when faced with a complex decision process. In this paper, we develop a new framework called multi-task neural network and additive gaussian process based discrete choice model (MNNAGP-DCM). Specially, the multi-task neural network (MNN) is used to learn the representation of individual characteristics, while the additive Gaussian process regression (AGP) process is utilized to enhance flexibility of utility function. In multi-task neural network, the sub-learners learn the taste parameters between individuals’ characteristic in each alternative, while the global bias term is used to learn the cross effect between alternatives. The additive GPR framework is employed to substitute the linear term in utility function with a nonparametric probability framework. Additive GPR enables the modelling of nonlinearity, threshold effects and uncertainty, thereby providing a more comprehensive perspective on the decision-making process. Moreover, when combined with DCM, the GPRs become intractable. To address this, we employ variational inference to construct a tractable lower bound, thereby transforming the original model into a tractable one. Then MNNAGP-DCM can be optimized by gradient based algorithms such as Adam. The proposed model is tested on the open-source dataset and benchmarked with standard MNL, Mix-logit, XGBoost, TasteNet-MNL, MNN-DCM and MNNSGP-DCM. Results show that MNNAGP-DCM can not only capture individuals’ heterogeneity but also can learn the nonlinearity in utility function, showing great superiority in terms of predictability. Our model can also provide interpretable result with taste parameters and the fitted GPR models, while quantifying uncertainty through GPR’s probability framework.

离散选择模型（DCM）是一个经典的个人旅行选择建模框架。然而，在面对复杂的决策过程时，其过于简化的效用函数架构可能会限制其性能。本文提出了一种基于多任务神经网络和加性高斯过程的离散选择模型（MNNAGP-DCM）。其中，利用多任务神经网络（MNN）学习个体特征的表示，利用加性高斯过程回归（AGP）过程增强效用函数的灵活性。在多任务神经网络中，子学习者学习每个选择中个体特征之间的口味参数，而全局偏差项用于学习选择之间的交叉效应。采用加性探地雷达框架将效用函数中的线性项替换为非参数概率框架。加性探地雷达可以对非线性、阈值效应和不确定性进行建模，从而为决策过程提供更全面的视角。此外，当与DCM结合使用时，gpr变得棘手。为了解决这个问题，我们采用变分推理来构造一个可处理的下界，从而将原始模型转换为可处理的模型。然后利用Adam等基于梯度的算法对MNNAGP-DCM进行优化。该模型在开源数据集上进行了测试，并与标准MNL、Mix-logit、XGBoost、TasteNet-MNL、MNN-DCM和MNNSGP-DCM进行了基准测试。结果表明，MNNAGP-DCM不仅可以捕捉个体的异质性，还可以学习效用函数的非线性，在可预测性方面表现出很大的优势。通过探地雷达的概率框架对不确定性进行量化，该模型还可以利用味觉参数和拟合的探地雷达模型提供可解释的结果。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating the gig economy: transportation labor challenges facing California’s app-based ridehailing and courier drivers 驾驭零工经济：加州基于应用程序的叫车和快递司机面临的运输劳动力挑战

IF 5.7 2区工程技术 Q1 TRANSPORTATION

Travel Behaviour and Society

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.tbs.2025.101218

Susan Shaheen , Brooke Wolfe , Adam Cohen

Given the dynamic landscape surrounding the classification of workers in California, it is important to consider how the existing legal and regulatory environment may impact app-based gig drivers, including transportation network companies (TNCs, also known as ridehailing) and courier network services (CNS). Using a multi-method approach, we conducted a literature review (n = 41 sources), expert interviews (n = 8), and case study analysis (n = 7) between October 2022 to May 2024 to better understand how California’s gig drivers are impacted by state legislation and regulation (i.e., Assembly Bill 5, Proposition 22, and Senate Bill 1014). The expert interviews found that gig drivers are concerned with fair pay, benefits, labor classification, and transparency from the app-based platforms on issues related to punitive actions (i.e., deactivations). Drivers also raised concerns about California’s Clean Miles Standard (also known as SB 1014), which requires 90 % of vehicle miles traveled be electric by 2030, due to the financial costs associated with acquiring and operating electric vehicles (EVs) and limited public charging availability. The seven case studies examine gig labor policies from other states and countries (e.g., policies that may help enhance driver working conditions, platform regulation, and facilitate the EV transition). Together, these methods explore the tension between sustaining an app-based gig driving platform and providing fair compensation and working conditions for gig drivers. The study finds that state and/or local policies establishing minimum pay for drivers and policies enhancing transparency and appeal processes for driver deactivations could help improve working conditions for gig drivers. Various state agencies, such as the California Public Utilities Commission, could support gig drivers through incentives for the purchase of EVs and installation of EV charging near their homes and driving locations.

考虑到围绕加州工人分类的动态景观，重要的是要考虑现有的法律和监管环境如何影响基于应用程序的零工司机，包括运输网络公司（TNCs，也称为乘车服务）和快递网络服务（CNS）。利用多方法方法，我们在2022年10月至2024年5月期间进行了文献综述（n = 41个来源）、专家访谈（n = 8）和案例研究分析（n = 7），以更好地了解加州的零工司机是如何受到州立法和法规（即议会法案5、提案22和参议院法案1014）的影响的。专家访谈发现，零工司机关心的是公平的薪酬、福利、劳动分类，以及基于应用程序的平台在惩罚行动（即停用）相关问题上的透明度。由于购买和运营电动汽车的财务成本以及有限的公共充电设施，司机们还对加州的“清洁里程标准”（也称为SB 1014）提出了担忧。该标准要求，到2030年，电动汽车的行驶里程必须达到90%。这七个案例研究考察了其他州和国家的零工劳工政策（例如，可能有助于改善司机工作条件、平台监管和促进电动汽车转型的政策）。总之，这些方法探讨了维持基于应用程序的零工驾驶平台与为零工司机提供公平的薪酬和工作条件之间的紧张关系。研究发现，制定司机最低工资的州和/或地方政策，以及提高司机停职透明度和申诉程序的政策，可能有助于改善零工司机的工作条件。加州公用事业委员会（California Public Utilities Commission）等多个州政府机构可以通过奖励购买电动汽车，并在他们的家和驾驶地点附近安装电动汽车充电桩，来支持零工司机。

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引用次数: 0

Street environments and recovery experience: a cycling perspective analysis using machine learning and natural language processing 街道环境和恢复经验：使用机器学习和自然语言处理的自行车视角分析

IF 5.7 2区工程技术 Q1 TRANSPORTATION

Travel Behaviour and Society

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.tbs.2026.101238

Yiwen Zhang , Scarlett T. Jin , Haizhi Luo , Yang Yu , Hui Kong

Recovery experience refers to the process through which individuals achieve stress recovery via emotional responses and engagement in restorative activities. Although urban streets are known to support stress recovery, their specific effects on recovery experience, particularly in cycling-friendly environments amid growing bike-sharing adoption, remain underexplored. This study integrates multi-source data to examine how street environmental features and cycling density influence recovery experience. Using a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model and machine learning techniques, we systematically assess the impact of various street environmental features on recovery experience. Results indicate that traffic accessibility (e.g., metro and bus station density, intersection density), urban vitality (e.g., social vitality and commercial facility density), and aesthetic qualities (vegetation) significantly enhance recovery experience. Different dimensions of recovery experience exhibit distinct sensitivities: detachment and mastery are more responsive to traffic accessibility, while relaxation is more strongly influenced by street vitality. Specifically, shared-bike facility density exerts a positive effect on recovery experience, and moderate slope likewise contributes positively to mastery. Furthermore, high cycling density amplifies the beneficial influence of the street environments on recovery experience, particularly in terms of traffic accessibility and vitality. These findings highlight the critical role of cycling-friendly street environmental features and active cycling participation in promoting recovery experience. Based on the findings, this research provides evidence-based insights for designing urban streets that enhance sustainable mobility while fostering stress recovery.

恢复体验是指个体通过情绪反应和参与恢复性活动实现压力恢复的过程。虽然人们都知道城市街道有助于压力恢复，但它们对恢复体验的具体影响，尤其是在共享单车日益普及的自行车友好环境中，仍未得到充分探索。本研究整合多来源资料，检视街道环境特征与单车密度对复原体验的影响。使用双向编码器表示（BERT）模型和机器学习技术，我们系统地评估了各种街道环境特征对恢复经验的影响。结果表明，交通可达性（如地铁和公交车站密度、十字路口密度）、城市活力（如社会活力和商业设施密度）和审美品质（植被）显著增强了恢复体验。不同维度的恢复体验表现出不同的敏感性：超然和精通对交通可达性更敏感，而放松受街道活力的影响更强烈。其中，共享单车设施密度对恢复体验有正向影响，适度坡度对掌握也有正向影响。此外，高自行车密度放大了街道环境对恢复体验的有益影响，特别是在交通可达性和活力方面。这些发现强调了自行车友好型街道环境特征和积极的自行车参与对促进恢复体验的关键作用。基于这些发现，本研究为设计城市街道提供了基于证据的见解，这些街道在促进压力恢复的同时增强了可持续的流动性。

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引用次数: 0

Multimodal public transport, travel behaviour, and social equity 多式联运公共交通、出行行为和社会公平

IF 5.2 2区工程技术 Q1 TRANSPORTATION

Travel Behaviour and Society

Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.tbs.2026.101237

Sui Tao, Long Cheng, Jonathan Corcoran, Susan Shaheen

引用次数: 0

Accessibility dynamics with high-speed railway network expansion: A line-specific, granular analysis 高速铁路网扩展的可达性动态：线路特定的粒度分析

IF 5.7 2区工程技术 Q1 TRANSPORTATION

Travel Behaviour and Society

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.tbs.2026.101239

Mengying Cui , Lijie Yu , Zhe Dai , Ang Ji , Keyue Liu , David Levinson

This study conducts a line-based accessibility analysis of high-speed railway (HSR) network expansion in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration of China based on a multi-modal inter-city network. We propose an improved accessibility indicator that integrates opportunities and transport networks from neighboring regions, overcoming the artificial inequities inherent in traditional methods that restrict destination and route selections to rigid study area boundaries. The results reveal that the HSR network in the study area is still in the growth phase, with accessibility gains following an S-shaped trajectory, and has not yet reached maturity. Future investments are expected to sustain improvements in accessibility and spatial equity. More importantly, the operational sequence of HSR lines is less significant than their individual contributions to accessibility and equity. This implies few, if any, synergies between the HSR lines and emphasizes the importance of strategic line placement over construction order in fostering efficient and equitable regional connections, particularly in emerging HSR networks.

本文基于多模式城际网络，对关中平原城市群高速铁路网络扩展的线路可达性进行了分析。我们提出了一个改进的可达性指标，该指标整合了来自邻近地区的机会和交通网络，克服了传统方法固有的人为不公平，这些方法将目的地和路线选择限制在严格的研究区域边界内。结果表明：研究区高铁网络仍处于成长期，可达性增长呈s型轨迹，尚未达到成熟期；预计未来的投资将持续改善可达性和空间公平。更重要的是，高铁线路的运行顺序不如它们对可达性和公平性的贡献重要。这意味着高铁线路之间的协同效应很少（如果有的话），并强调了战略线路布局对建设顺序的重要性，以促进高效和公平的区域连接，特别是在新兴的高铁网络中。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding consumer preferences for Urban Air Mobility: A choice-based conjoint analysis approach with the case of South Korea 了解消费者对城市空中交通的偏好：以韩国为例的基于选择的联合分析方法

IF 5.7 2区工程技术 Q1 TRANSPORTATION

Travel Behaviour and Society

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.tbs.2026.101236

Junmin Lee , Harin Chae , Woojin Bang , Daeho Lee , Myoungjin Oh , Jungwoo Shin , Keungoui Kim

The emergence of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) as a transformative mode of transportation is driven by the convergence of advanced information technologies, including automation and autonomous flight systems, with innovative aerial vehicle designs. Positioned as a key component of future smart and interconnected urban mobility ecosystems, UAM has attracted growing attention from both industry and policymakers. This study examines consumer preferences for UAM in South Korea using a choice-based conjoint analysis. The analysis quantifies the relative importance of key service attributes—transit time, price, operating speed, autonomy, waiting time, seat width, and luggage weight—in influencing potential adoption. The results show that transit time is the most influential attribute shaping consumer preferences, followed by price, operating speed, and autonomy. Secondary factors such as waiting time, seat width, and luggage weight also contribute to perceived service quality and convenience. These findings provide actionable insights for UAM service providers and policymakers, highlighting the need to balance efficiency, affordability, and technological advancement to foster consumer acceptance and sustainable market integration. Future research should validate these findings across different cultural and urban contexts to assess the generalisability of consumer preference structures.

城市空中交通（UAM）作为一种变革性的交通方式的出现，是由先进信息技术的融合推动的，包括自动化和自主飞行系统，以及创新的飞行器设计。UAM被定位为未来智能互联城市交通生态系统的关键组成部分，吸引了越来越多的行业和政策制定者的关注。本研究使用基于选择的联合分析来检验韩国消费者对UAM的偏好。该分析量化了影响潜在采用的关键服务属性——运输时间、价格、运行速度、自主性、等待时间、座位宽度和行李重量——的相对重要性。结果表明，运输时间是影响消费者偏好的最重要因素，其次是价格、运营速度和自主性。等候时间、座位宽度和行李重量等次要因素也会影响服务质量和便利性。这些发现为UAM服务提供商和政策制定者提供了可操作的见解，强调了平衡效率、可负担性和技术进步的必要性，以促进消费者接受和可持续的市场整合。未来的研究应该在不同的文化和城市背景下验证这些发现，以评估消费者偏好结构的普遍性。

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引用次数: 0

Interpreting an unfolding future: Is teleworking as common after the pandemic as we expected? and what does it mean for policy? 解读正在展开的未来：疫情后远程办公是否如我们预期的那样普遍？这对政策意味着什么？

IF 5.7 2区工程技术 Q1 TRANSPORTATION

Travel Behaviour and Society

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.tbs.2026.101234

Matthias Sweet , Darren M. Scott

While many studies lead to expectations of significant post-pandemic telework, has this actually become the reality? Teleworking (work-from-home) may significantly change activity patterns and land markets in metropolitan areas. It stands to gut the downtowns of major metropolitan areas of their knowledge workers. Towards understanding what telework means for future transportation policy, this study explores how teleworking has changed based not only on employees’ expectations of the future, but also based on teleworking rates experienced after the pandemic. Moreover, this study explores what teleworking changes are likely to mean with respect to early fears that downtowns will become hollowed out. Using two waves (2021 and 2023) of the Future Mobility in Canada Survey (FMCS), this study updates estimates of future teleworking using fall 2023 data to reflect on the changing policy implications of teleworking propensities.

Using descriptive statistics and inferential models, this study finds teleworking has lessened between 2021 and 2023, it has decentralized out of the downtowns, it no longer disproportionately offsets transit use, and it is becoming more prominent in households with two or more vehicles. Increasing disconnects between in-person younger workers and virtual older workers portend workplace challenges. Moreover, findings suggest that policymakers will need to wrestle with the question as to whether telework should be viewed as an economic good (notably serving high-income households) or as a merit good (notably serving latent teleworking demand by women). Despite significant uncertainty over the longer-term, significant policy implications appear to hinge on non-transportation outcomes, including time poverty, workplace mentoring, and the meaning of downtowns as work hubs.

虽然许多研究都对大流行后的远程工作产生了预期，但这真的成为现实了吗？远程办公（在家工作）可能会显著改变大都市地区的活动模式和土地市场。它将把他们的知识工人从主要大都市的中心城区赶出去。为了了解远程办公对未来交通政策的意义，本研究不仅根据员工对未来的期望，还根据疫情后的远程办公率，探讨了远程办公的变化。此外，本研究还探讨了远程办公的变化可能意味着什么，这与早期对市中心将被掏空的担忧有关。本研究利用加拿大未来流动性调查（FMCS）的两波（2021年和2023年），利用2023年秋季的数据更新了对未来远程办公的估计，以反映远程办公倾向不断变化的政策影响。利用描述性统计和推理模型，这项研究发现，在2021年至2023年期间，远程办公已经减少，它已经分散到市中心之外，它不再不成比例地抵消交通使用，并且在拥有两辆或更多车辆的家庭中变得更加突出。面对面的年轻员工和虚拟的年长员工之间越来越脱节，预示着工作场所的挑战。此外，研究结果表明，政策制定者需要努力解决这样一个问题：远程办公是应该被视为一种经济产品（尤其是服务于高收入家庭），还是一种价值产品（尤其是服务于女性潜在的远程办公需求）。尽管长期来看存在很大的不确定性，但重大的政策影响似乎取决于非交通结果，包括时间贫困、工作场所指导以及市中心作为工作中心的意义。

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引用次数: 0

Towards resilient transit services: Lessons from the evolution of travel-related well-being 建设弹性交通服务：来自旅行相关福祉演变的经验教训

IF 5.7 2区工程技术 Q1 TRANSPORTATION

Travel Behaviour and Society

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.tbs.2025.101228

Yucheng Wang , Long Cheng

The novel coronavirus in 2020 (COVID-19) drastically influenced the travel experience of urban transit users, particularly by reducing their perceived well-being. However, limited evidence exists on how travel-related well-being and its determinants evolve across different COVID-19 wave stages, hindering the ability to devise effective strategies for restoring service quality. To advance more resilient transit services, this study analyzed changes in the factors influencing travel-related well-being using a quasi-longitudinal survey of metro travel experiences before, during, and after the first COVID-19 wave. The survey was carried out in Xi’an, a major city in northwestern China, and yielded 528 valid responses after data cleaning. Ordered regression models were applied to compare the influence of different factors on travel-related well-being across the three temporal stages. The findings revealed a lagged psychological effect of the first COVID-19 wave on well-being, emphasizing that perceived risk and negative mood due to the pandemic had a significantly persistent impact on travel well-being, despite the elimination of strict restraints/control policies. The results also indicated that not all prevention measures were effective at every stage, suggesting the importance of dynamic temporal adjustment in resources allocation to enhance key services. Besides, the study shows that attention should not be limited to anti-epidemic attributes. Conventional attributes like waiting time and in-vehicle time remain significant, with their importance amplified during and after the COVID-19 wave. Furthermore, we profiled service resilience from the perspective of users’ subjective perceptions, i.e., before-after changes in travel well-being, and identified more vital factors for the recovery of well-being, such as conducting disinfection, controlling congestion, decreasing waiting time and in-vehicle time. Overall, this study offers lessons from a previous COVID-19 wave to inform the enhancement of transit service quality to improve passengers’ well-being, in preparation for potential/unknown public health crises in the future.

2020年的新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）极大地影响了城市交通用户的出行体验，特别是降低了他们的幸福感。然而，关于旅行相关福祉及其决定因素如何在不同的COVID-19浪潮阶段演变的证据有限，阻碍了制定有效战略以恢复服务质量的能力。为了促进更具弹性的交通服务，本研究通过对第一次COVID-19浪潮之前、期间和之后的地铁旅行体验进行准纵向调查，分析了影响旅行相关福祉的因素的变化。该调查是在中国西北的一个主要城市西安进行的，经过数据清理，得到了528个有效回复。运用有序回归模型比较不同因素对三个时间阶段旅游相关幸福感的影响。调查结果显示，第一波COVID-19浪潮对幸福感产生了滞后的心理影响，并强调，尽管取消了严格的限制/控制政策，但大流行带来的感知风险和负面情绪对旅行幸福感产生了显著的持续影响。结果还表明，并非所有预防措施在每个阶段都有效，这表明在资源配置中进行动态时间调整以加强重点服务的重要性。此外，研究表明，关注不应局限于抗疫属性。等待时间和车内时间等传统属性仍然很重要，在COVID-19浪潮期间和之后，它们的重要性被放大。此外，我们从用户的主观感知角度，即出行幸福感的前后变化，分析了服务弹性，并确定了更重要的幸福感恢复因素，如进行消毒，控制拥堵，减少等待时间和车内时间。总体而言，本研究提供了之前COVID-19浪潮的经验教训，为提高交通服务质量提供信息，以改善乘客的福祉，为未来潜在/未知的公共卫生危机做好准备。

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引用次数: 0

Spatial and operational interventions for healthy cruise ship design using agent-based modelling 基于主体模型的健康游轮设计的空间和操作干预

IF 5.7 2区工程技术 Q1 TRANSPORTATION

Travel Behaviour and Society

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.tbs.2026.101232

Jiayu Pan , Leonel Aguilar , Michal Gath-Morad , Ronita Bardhan , Koen Steemers

Cruise ship environments have been identified as high-risk settings for communicable disease outbreaks. The severe COVID-19 outbreaks aboard several cruise ships have further intensified concerns about transmission in these confined, densely populated environments. Although some behavioural interventions have been studied, the influence of spatial and operational design on transmission risk remains under explored.

To address this gap, this study applies agent-based modelling (ABM) to simulate passenger movement patterns on mixed-use cruise ship decks as a surrogate for infection transmission. By modelling individual movement behaviours and collisions (close-contact exposure) within the mixed-use decks, the ABM approach supports the development of spatial design and operational strategies that can reduce transmission risk and improve the efficiency and healthiness of onboard circulation. We conducted verification and parametric tests to assess model performance and designed three experiments to evaluate the effects of varying occupancy levels, infection prevalence, spatial layouts and access restriction strategies with 1181 simulation runs, the simulation results are complemented by spatial analyses of deck plans to inform evidence-based recommendations for safer cruise ship environments.

We identified three key spatial drivers of disease transmission risk on cruise ships. First, higher occupancy density and compact layouts significantly increased close-contact events, as passengers navigated narrow, poorly connected corridors. Second, the effectiveness of quarantine interventions depended not just on their presence but on their spatial placement: centrally located restrictions amplified congestion, while peripheral placement helped alleviate it. Third, simple passive design changes—such as widening corridors or enhancing internal connectivity—reduced movement bottlenecks and collisions, without requiring behavioural adaptation. Together, these findings demonstrate that spatial configuration is not merely a backdrop but a powerful determinant of health resilience in high-occupancy environments.

游轮环境已被确定为传染病暴发的高风险环境。几艘游轮上发生的COVID-19严重疫情进一步加剧了人们对在这些狭窄、人口稠密的环境中传播的担忧。虽然已经研究了一些行为干预措施，但空间和操作设计对传播风险的影响仍有待探讨。为了解决这一差距，本研究应用基于主体的建模（ABM）来模拟混合用途游轮甲板上的乘客运动模式，作为感染传播的替代品。通过模拟混合用途甲板内的个人运动行为和碰撞（近距离接触暴露），ABM方法支持空间设计和操作策略的发展，可以减少传播风险，提高船上循环的效率和健康。我们进行了验证和参数测试来评估模型的性能，并设计了三个实验来评估不同的入住率、感染流行率、空间布局和访问限制策略对1181次模拟运行的影响，模拟结果与甲板平面图的空间分析相补充，为更安全的游轮环境提供循证建议。我们确定了邮轮上疾病传播风险的三个关键空间驱动因素。首先，较高的占用密度和紧凑的布局显著增加了近距离接触事件，因为乘客在狭窄、连接不良的走廊上航行。其次，隔离措施的有效性不仅取决于它们的存在，还取决于它们的空间位置：中心位置的限制加剧了拥堵，而外围位置的限制有助于缓解拥堵。第三，简单的被动设计改变——比如拓宽走廊或加强内部连接——减少了移动瓶颈和碰撞，而不需要行为适应。总之，这些发现表明，在高占用率环境中，空间配置不仅是一个背景，而且是健康恢复力的一个强大决定因素。

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引用次数: 0

Modeling travelers’ joint car ownership and car type choice behavior: The role of autonomous vehicle safety-security perceptions 旅行者共同拥有汽车和汽车类型选择行为的建模：自动驾驶汽车安全感知的作用

IF 5.7 2区工程技术 Q1 TRANSPORTATION

Travel Behaviour and Society

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.tbs.2025.101230

Umer Mansoor , Yu Gu , Anthony Chen

Car ownership and car type choice are critical components of transportation planning, yet the interplay between these decisions and the impact of emerging vehicle technologies, such as autonomous vehicles (AVs), remain underexplored. As AVs become more prevalent, travelers’ perceptions and behaviors regarding their safety and security may affect their adoption. This study investigates how travelers’ risk perceptions (safety, security, and range anxiety) shape their joint decisions to own a car and select a vehicle type within a multimodal transportation system. We propose a discrete choice modeling-based equilibrium analysis framework that integrates a dogit model to capture captivity effects in car ownership decisions and a nested logit model to account for similarities among car types. The framework is formulated as a mathematical programming problem, ensuring solution existence and uniqueness. Numerical experiments on a toy network and a real-world case study reveal that reductions in travelers’ risk perceptions toward AVs lead to significant increases in AV adoption, highlighting the critical role of public trust in transitioning to AV-dominated markets. By explicitly linking risk perceptions to long-term transportation planning, this model equips policymakers with a tool to design strategies that address behavioral barriers to AV adoption while balancing efficiency and safety objectives.

汽车拥有量和车型选择是交通规划的关键组成部分，但这些决策与新兴汽车技术（如自动驾驶汽车）的影响之间的相互作用仍未得到充分探讨。随着自动驾驶汽车的普及，旅行者对自身安全的看法和行为可能会影响自动驾驶汽车的采用。本研究调查了旅行者的风险感知（安全、保障和里程焦虑）如何影响他们在多式联运系统中拥有汽车和选择车辆类型的共同决策。我们提出了一个基于离散选择建模的均衡分析框架，该框架集成了一个dogit模型来捕捉汽车所有权决策中的圈养效应，一个嵌套logit模型来解释汽车类型之间的相似性。该框架被表述为一个数学规划问题，保证了解的存在唯一性。在玩具网络上的数值实验和现实案例研究表明，旅行者对自动驾驶汽车风险认知的降低导致自动驾驶汽车采用率的显著增加，突出了公众信任在向自动驾驶汽车主导的市场过渡中的关键作用。通过明确地将风险认知与长期交通规划联系起来，该模型为政策制定者提供了设计策略的工具，以解决自动驾驶采用的行为障碍，同时平衡效率和安全目标。

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