The rapid growth of ride-hailing services has reshaped urban mobility but also intensified congestion, emissions, and car dependency, raising concerns about sustainability. The metro-integrated multimodal travel (MIMT), enabled by Mobility as a Service (MaaS) platforms, offers promising low-carbon alternatives by integrating metro systems with convenient access and egress modes such as ridesplitting, buses, cycling, and walking. This study aims to develop a pratical analytical framework to assess the substitution potential of MIMT for ride-hailing trips in the era of MaaS. First, a trip reconstruction method is proposed to generate ten types of MIMT alternatives under identical origin–destination (OD) conditions. Second, a multidimensional evaluation model is established to quantify substitution benefits by jointly considering cost savings, carbon emission reductions, and time delays. Third, an interpretable machine learning approach (CatBoost integrated with SHAP and PDP) is applied to identify the travel and built environment factors influencing substitution potential. A case study based on 837,503 ride-hailing trips in Shanghai indicates that 56.46 % of trips could feasibly be replaced by MIMT alternatives. On average, each substituted trip yields a comprehensive benefits of 13.83 CNY, comprising cost savings of 24.03 CNY and carbon emission reductions of 1.29 kg, at the cost of an average travel time increase of 17.51 min. The results further reveal that substitution potential is primarily driven by route nonlinearity, trip distance, and metro accessibility. Travel-related variables account for 61.11 % of explanatory power, while built environment features contribute the remaining 38.89 %. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that travelers' transition from ride-hailing to MIMT is predominantly influenced by the value of time, with current carbon pricing exerting only a marginal effect. These findings highlight the role of MaaS in promoting multimodal integration and provide actionable insights for policymakers and platform operators to reduce ride-hailing dependency and advance low-carbon urban mobility.
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