The coronavirus pandemic has ravaged countries across Latin America. Although the region continues to suffer, the promise of vaccinations provides reason for hope. As vaccines become more widely accessible in Latin America, public support for and willingness to receive the vaccine will be essential to pandemic recovery. Recognizing this, politicians in the region are already actively publicly promoting vaccination. In this research note, we explore Latin Americans’ attitudes on vaccine acceptance as well as the influence of political recruitment for vaccination and both consumption of and trust in news from politicians on self-reported attitudes of vaccine acceptance. We learn that, in general, Latin Americans are receptive to vaccination but that acceptance varies as a function of country, time, and recruitment and, interestingly, that Latin Americans are actually dissuaded from vaccination if encouraged by politicians. We conclude with a discussion and a plea that vaccination campaigns remain separate from political ones.
{"title":"Ready, Set, Vaccine: The Path to COVID-19 Recovery in Latin America","authors":"K. Piazza, Alexandria Schwier","doi":"10.14201/rlop.26940","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.26940","url":null,"abstract":"The coronavirus pandemic has ravaged countries across Latin America. Although the region continues to suffer, the promise of vaccinations provides reason for hope. As vaccines become more widely accessible in Latin America, public support for and willingness to receive the vaccine will be essential to pandemic recovery. Recognizing this, politicians in the region are already actively publicly promoting vaccination. In this research note, we explore Latin Americans’ attitudes on vaccine acceptance as well as the influence of political recruitment for vaccination and both consumption of and trust in news from politicians on self-reported attitudes of vaccine acceptance. We learn that, in general, Latin Americans are receptive to vaccination but that acceptance varies as a function of country, time, and recruitment and, interestingly, that Latin Americans are actually dissuaded from vaccination if encouraged by politicians. We conclude with a discussion and a plea that vaccination campaigns remain separate from political ones.","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49201586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Election forecasts, based on public opinion polls or statistical structural models, regularly appear before national elections in established democracies around the world. However, in less established democratic systems, such as those in Latin America, scientific election forecasting by opinion polls is irregular and by statistical models is almost non-existent. Here we attempt to ameliorate this situation by exploring the leading case of Argentina, where democratic elections have prevailed for the last thirty-eight years. We demonstrate the strengths—and the weaknesses—of the two approaches, finally giving the nod to structural models based political and economic fundamentals. Investigating the presidential and legislative elections there, 1983 to 2019, our political economy model performs rather better than the more popular vote intention method from polling.
{"title":"Argentinian Elections","authors":"María Celeste Ratto, M. Lewis-Beck","doi":"10.14201/rlop.26396","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.26396","url":null,"abstract":"Election forecasts, based on public opinion polls or statistical structural models, regularly appear before national elections in established democracies around the world. However, in less established democratic systems, such as those in Latin America, scientific election forecasting by opinion polls is irregular and by statistical models is almost non-existent. Here we attempt to ameliorate this situation by exploring the leading case of Argentina, where democratic elections have prevailed for the last thirty-eight years. We demonstrate the strengths—and the weaknesses—of the two approaches, finally giving the nod to structural models based political and economic fundamentals. Investigating the presidential and legislative elections there, 1983 to 2019, our political economy model performs rather better than the more popular vote intention method from polling.","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48868683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Este artigo avalia o efeito da economia na satisfação da população com os serviços públicos. A contribuição empírica central é um índice nacional de satisfação com os serviços básicos do governo - saúde, educação, segurança, habitação, transporte, emprego, meio ambiente e Bolsa Família - de 1989 a 2017-, estimado com o algoritmo de díades. Os resultados mostram que as taxas de desemprego, o crescimento do PIB e as avaliações prospectivas egotrópicas da economia impactam a satisfação com os serviços públicos. Como tal, este estudo conecta duas agendas de pesquisa principais: a qualidade da democracia e a política macro.
{"title":"A (In)satisfação com os Serviços Públicos: Um Modelo Dinâmico","authors":"André Bello","doi":"10.14201/rlop.26017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.26017","url":null,"abstract":"Este artigo avalia o efeito da economia na satisfação da população com os serviços públicos. A contribuição empírica central é um índice nacional de satisfação com os serviços básicos do governo - saúde, educação, segurança, habitação, transporte, emprego, meio ambiente e Bolsa Família - de 1989 a 2017-, estimado com o algoritmo de díades. Os resultados mostram que as taxas de desemprego, o crescimento do PIB e as avaliações prospectivas egotrópicas da economia impactam a satisfação com os serviços públicos. Como tal, este estudo conecta duas agendas de pesquisa principais: a qualidade da democracia e a política macro.","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49604849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Peruvian political landscape is dominated by the weakness of party organizations, the continuous rotation of political personalities, and, in turn, high electoral volatility and uncertainty. Nevertheless, we observe patterns of electoral competition that suggest candidates learn to capture the political center and compete over the continuation of an economic model that has sustained growth. We use this information to record the vote intention for the candidate viewed as the lesser evil. Our forecasting results predict a good share of the variation in political support for this candidate. The out-of-sample prediction also comes fairly close to the real electoral results. These findings provide some degree of electoral certainty in an area that, to date, remains understudied.
{"title":"Choosing the Lesser Evil: Forecasting Presidential Elections in Peru","authors":"M. Arce, Sofia B. Vera","doi":"10.14201/rlop.25805","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.25805","url":null,"abstract":"The Peruvian political landscape is dominated by the weakness of party organizations, the continuous rotation of political personalities, and, in turn, high electoral volatility and uncertainty. Nevertheless, we observe patterns of electoral competition that suggest candidates learn to capture the political center and compete over the continuation of an economic model that has sustained growth. We use this information to record the vote intention for the candidate viewed as the lesser evil. Our forecasting results predict a good share of the variation in political support for this candidate. The out-of-sample prediction also comes fairly close to the real electoral results. These findings provide some degree of electoral certainty in an area that, to date, remains understudied.","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46611628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Brazil is one of the countries most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Yet, while rates of contagion and deaths increase over time, polls show that opinions about the pandemic become less concerned about the virus and less supportive of mitigation measures. According to observers, a key factor in this process is President Bolsonaro’s denialist stance. In this paper, we show that patterns of media choice help explain how Bolsonaro influences public opinion over time. Using three online surveys conducted at different stages of the pandemic, we show that the divergence in views about the pandemic is driven largely by Bolsonaro supporters who prefer to consume news online. The findings have implications not just for understanding the politicization of the pandemic in Brazil, but also for the relationship between populism and mass communications in the social media era.
{"title":"Media Choice and the Polarization of Public Opinion About Covid-19 in Brazil","authors":"Frederico Batista Pereira, Felipe Nunes","doi":"10.14201/RLOP.23681","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/RLOP.23681","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 \u0000Brazil is one of the countries most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Yet, while rates of contagion and deaths increase over time, polls show that opinions about the pandemic become less concerned about the virus and less supportive of mitigation measures. According to observers, a key factor in this process is President Bolsonaro’s denialist stance. In this paper, we show that patterns of media choice help explain how Bolsonaro influences public opinion over time. Using three online surveys conducted at different stages of the pandemic, we show that the divergence in views about the pandemic is driven largely by Bolsonaro supporters who prefer to consume news online. The findings have implications not just for understanding the politicization of the pandemic in Brazil, but also for the relationship between populism and mass communications in the social media era. \u0000 \u0000 \u0000","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44659302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
¿Por qué algunos individuos creen que los migrantes retornados hacen contribuciones relevantes y otros, en cambio, opinan que generan problemas? ¿Cuáles son los determinantes de estas actitudes ciudadanas, positivas y negativas, hacia la migración de retorno? ¿Hay variaciones o similitudes de estas actitudes entre países? El propósito de este artículo es responder a estas preguntas. Para ello, a partir de distintas hipótesis teóricas, presentamos y explicamos las actitudes hacia retornados con base en el proyecto “Las Américas y el Mundo (LAYEM)” que nos permite comparar cuatro casos latinoamericanos: Colombia, Ecuador, México y Perú. El análisis tiene dos hallazgos importantes: primero, las opiniones ciudadanas en estos países latinoamericanos son mayoritariamente positivas hacia los migrantes de retorno y, segundo, estas actitudes son explicadas por las experiencias y contactos individuales con el retorno, las actitudes cosmopolitas y la valoración positiva de la situación de la economía nacional.
{"title":"Actitudes hacia migrantes de retorno en América Latina","authors":"Gerardo Maldonado Hernández, Mónica Jacobo, Nuty Cárdenas","doi":"10.14201/rlop.22912","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22912","url":null,"abstract":"¿Por qué algunos individuos creen que los migrantes retornados hacen contribuciones relevantes y otros, en cambio, opinan que generan problemas? ¿Cuáles son los determinantes de estas actitudes ciudadanas, positivas y negativas, hacia la migración de retorno? ¿Hay variaciones o similitudes de estas actitudes entre países? El propósito de este artículo es responder a estas preguntas. Para ello, a partir de distintas hipótesis teóricas, presentamos y explicamos las actitudes hacia retornados con base en el proyecto “Las Américas y el Mundo (LAYEM)” que nos permite comparar cuatro casos latinoamericanos: Colombia, Ecuador, México y Perú. El análisis tiene dos hallazgos importantes: primero, las opiniones ciudadanas en estos países latinoamericanos son mayoritariamente positivas hacia los migrantes de retorno y, segundo, estas actitudes son explicadas por las experiencias y contactos individuales con el retorno, las actitudes cosmopolitas y la valoración positiva de la situación de la economía nacional.","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44300376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Silvana Krause, Bruno MARQUES SCHAEFER, Tiago Alexandre LEME BARBOSA, Carolina PIMENTEL CORRÊA, H. Telles
The article analyzes the electoral financing pattern of the presidential elections from 2010 to 2018 in Brazil. Based on data from the Superior Electoral Court, the income of the parties and the presidential candidates of the period are analyzed. Our data shows that the 2018 elections present a new financing pattern that is explained by the changes in the country's electoral legislation. Until 2018, the sources of financing came from corporations, but in 2018 we have a competition in which the parties depend on public resources or donations from individuals. Our findings also indicate that for 2018 there was a coincidence between the amount of the candidate's resources and the number of votes received. In the last presidential election, this pattern changed, the victorious candidate was one with the highest earnings, which shows a change in the country's political competition.
{"title":"La elección brasileña de 2018: nuevos patrones de financiación, desafección política y redes sociales","authors":"Silvana Krause, Bruno MARQUES SCHAEFER, Tiago Alexandre LEME BARBOSA, Carolina PIMENTEL CORRÊA, H. Telles","doi":"10.14201/rlop.22688","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22688","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes the electoral financing pattern of the presidential elections from 2010 to 2018 in Brazil. Based on data from the Superior Electoral Court, the income of the parties and the presidential candidates of the period are analyzed. Our data shows that the 2018 elections present a new financing pattern that is explained by the changes in the country's electoral legislation. Until 2018, the sources of financing came from corporations, but in 2018 we have a competition in which the parties depend on public resources or donations from individuals. Our findings also indicate that for 2018 there was a coincidence between the amount of the candidate's resources and the number of votes received. In the last presidential election, this pattern changed, the victorious candidate was one with the highest earnings, which shows a change in the country's political competition.","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47387036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Existe una amplia gama de literatura que analiza la interacción entre la política interna y externa. En este sentido, recientemente hemos visto que los políticos estratégicos utilizan líderes extranjeros divisivos como una herramienta para aprovechar en la política interna. Sin embargo, el uso de estos líderes en campañas nacionales, y particularmente las razones por las cuales esto ocurre, no ha recibido mucha atención en la academia. En este artículo, tratamos de abordar este tema identificando cuándo las condiciones están maduras para este uso estratégico de los líderes extranjeros en la política interna. Más específicamente, argumentamos que la imagen de los líderes extranjeros puede usarse cuando presentan las condiciones para convertirse en un problema de cuña. Exploramos esta pregunta mediante el uso de datos de encuestas sobre puntos de vista de Chávez en América Latina junto con indicadores políticos y económicos entre 2005 y 2011. Descubrimos que las percepciones del chavismo son divisivas en países en los que el gobierno en funciones está gobernado por una administración de izquierda. Del mismo modo, mostramos que, en esos países, el chavismo tiene todas las condiciones para convertirse en un problema de cuña, ya que los opositores tienen una percepción homogéneamente negativa de ese movimiento político, mientras que los partidarios del gobierno están divididos en sus puntos de vista sobre el chavismo.
{"title":"El monstruo bajo la cama: el chavismo como un tema divisorio en América Latina","authors":"Iñaki Sagarzazu, Fernando Mourón","doi":"10.14201/rlop.22650","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22650","url":null,"abstract":"Existe una amplia gama de literatura que analiza la interacción entre la política interna y externa. En este sentido, recientemente hemos visto que los políticos estratégicos utilizan líderes extranjeros divisivos como una herramienta para aprovechar en la política interna. Sin embargo, el uso de estos líderes en campañas nacionales, y particularmente las razones por las cuales esto ocurre, no ha recibido mucha atención en la academia. En este artículo, tratamos de abordar este tema identificando cuándo las condiciones están maduras para este uso estratégico de los líderes extranjeros en la política interna. Más específicamente, argumentamos que la imagen de los líderes extranjeros puede usarse cuando presentan las condiciones para convertirse en un problema de cuña. Exploramos esta pregunta mediante el uso de datos de encuestas sobre puntos de vista de Chávez en América Latina junto con indicadores políticos y económicos entre 2005 y 2011. Descubrimos que las percepciones del chavismo son divisivas en países en los que el gobierno en funciones está gobernado por una administración de izquierda. Del mismo modo, mostramos que, en esos países, el chavismo tiene todas las condiciones para convertirse en un problema de cuña, ya que los opositores tienen una percepción homogéneamente negativa de ese movimiento político, mientras que los partidarios del gobierno están divididos en sus puntos de vista sobre el chavismo.","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44889406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Este estudo analisa a congruencia politica nas democracias presidencialistas da America Latina. Ele analisa os niveis de congruencia ideologica entre partidos e candidatos a presidencia com seus eleitores. Os dados utilizados sao do Barometro das Americas da Universidade de Vanderbilt e do Projeto de Elites da America Latina da Universidade de Salamanca para 11 paises da America Latina entre 2004 e 2014. Os resultados concluem que os vinculos ideologicos na America Latina sao variados. Os eleitores tendem a ser mais congruentes com os partidos politicos em que votam no legislativo do que com os candidatos que votam para presidente, reforcando a ideia de dupla legitimidade e dupla representacao nesses paises. O radicalismo e o numero de partidos e candidatos aparecem como as variaveis mais significativas para explicar a congruencia ideologica.
{"title":"Partidos políticos versus presidentes. Un análisis de la congruencia ideológica en América Latina","authors":"Patricia Otero Felipe, A. Mateos, C. Rivas","doi":"10.14201/rlop.22648","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.22648","url":null,"abstract":"Este estudo analisa a congruencia politica nas democracias presidencialistas da America Latina. Ele analisa os niveis de congruencia ideologica entre partidos e candidatos a presidencia com seus eleitores. Os dados utilizados sao do Barometro das Americas da Universidade de Vanderbilt e do Projeto de Elites da America Latina da Universidade de Salamanca para 11 paises da America Latina entre 2004 e 2014. Os resultados concluem que os vinculos ideologicos na America Latina sao variados. Os eleitores tendem a ser mais congruentes com os partidos politicos em que votam no legislativo do que com os candidatos que votam para presidente, reforcando a ideia de dupla legitimidade e dupla representacao nesses paises. O radicalismo e o numero de partidos e candidatos aparecem como as variaveis mais significativas para explicar a congruencia ideologica.","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49388388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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