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Evaluating the Demise of the Soviet Union 对苏联解体的评估
2区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/jcws_c_01162
Archie Brown, Thomas W. Simons, Ivan Kurilla, Andrea Graziosi, Louis D. Sell, Vladislav Zubok
Editor's Introduction: The disintegration of the Soviet Union in late December 1991 was one of the most remarkable events of the twentieth century. The Cold War had ended two years earlier, in 1989, with the collapse of East European Communism, but the dissolution of the Soviet Union in late 1991 made clear that the Cold War was truly over and that a new phase of international politics had begun. To be sure, the advent of the post–Cold War era did not mean that the whole nature of the global system had changed. Rivalries and severe tensions between great powers continued to arise after the demise of the Soviet Union (most acutely in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the brutal war that ensued), and numerous states in various parts of the world continued to use military force to pursue their objectives. In other respects as well, basic features of the Westphalian order were preserved. Nevertheless, the dissolution of the Soviet Union did ensure that the three defining features of the Cold War were gone for good and would almost certainly not return in combination at any point in the future: (1) a bipolar international system, with two superpowers that were (and were seen as) much stronger than all other countries; (2) a fundamental ideological clash pitting liberal capitalist democracy against Marxism-Leninism; and (3) the division of Europe, East Asia, and much of the rest of the world into broad spheres of influence of the two superpowers.The breakup of the Soviet Union was such a dramatic and consequential event—an event that once seemed totally implausible—that it was bound to inspire voluminous scholarship. Countless books and articles have appeared over the past three decades that collectively explore almost all aspects of the Soviet Union's demise, including the political, social, and economic factors that helped bring it about, the specific developments that contributed to the outcome, and the role of external actors and the external environment. This outpouring of scholarship has been hugely facilitated by the release of crucial archival evidence in Russia and most of the fourteen other countries that were once part of the USSR and by the publication of many important memoirs. Ironically, the quantity of primary sources that have become available is greater for the 1985–1991 period than for the 1965–1984 period. Scholars such as Archie Brown, William C. Taubman, Svetlana Savranskaya, Timothy J. Colton, Serhii Plokhii, Robert Service, Chris Miller, David Marples, and many others (including me) have been able to draw on the immense amount of archival evidence that has been released, greatly enriching their work.Vladislav Zubok, a well-known scholar of Soviet history and Soviet foreign policy, has now published his own lengthy account of the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union, with Yale University Press. His book, too, has benefited from the abundance of archival documents and memoir
5)祖博克的概括很难在阅读或重读政治学和跨学科期刊,更具体地说,那些关注苏联和共产主义世界的期刊,如苏联研究及其后续(欧亚研究),共产主义问题(和后共产主义问题),比较共产主义研究(后来成为共产主义和后共产主义研究),或苏联经济(尽管它的标题,他既关心苏联的经济,也关心苏联的政治)以及后苏联时代的延续。事实上,许多敬重戈尔巴乔夫的作家主要关注的是他在国内取得的成就,尤其是他在苏联政治体系中引入了广泛的自由和实质性的民主化。我自己的书和文章当然也是如此,它们更多地关注苏联内部政治,而不是外交政策此外,“叛国罪”是戈尔巴乔夫的敌人的语言,而不是那些积极评价他接受言论和出版自由、有真正选择的选举和政治责任的学者的语言。当“叛国罪”和“叛国”这两个词出现时,这些词是从1991年8月发动政变反对戈尔巴乔夫的人嘴里说出来的——尤其是弗拉基米尔·克柳契科夫和奥列格·巴克兰诺夫就我个人而言,我避免使用“叛国”这个词,也不会用它来描述鲍里斯·叶利钦的行为,甚至不会用它来描述1991年8月政变分子所采取的步骤,尽管我确实认为叶利钦通过声称俄罗斯法律高于苏联法律来破坏苏联,这违背了俄罗斯的长期国家利益,这更适用于那些试图拯救联邦和他们自己的政治皮子的反动和无能的政变分子,加速了它的溶解。祖博克本人几乎是在指责叶利钦叛国罪,他写道叶利钦支持俄罗斯主权,反对-à-vis苏联联邦当局,“苏联最大共和国的领导人公开煽动叛乱,大多数受过教育的俄罗斯人都支持他”(第187页)。祖博克将戈尔巴乔夫比作“一艘巨轮的船长,突然决定驶向遥远的应许之地”,这样做“违背了船员的情绪和本能”。此外,苏联领导人和他的追随者不知道他们要去哪里,因为他们没有地图,“他们的指南针坏了”(第62页)。虽然这个比喻已经从空中转移到了海上,但它让人想起了1988年俄罗斯民族主义作家尤里·邦达列夫在苏共第十九次代表大会上的演讲,他把改革比作一架起飞的飞机,既不知道目的地,也不知道降落地点飞行员的罪责已被清楚地暗示出来。尽管这些修辞手法丰富多彩,但它们对政治理解没有什么帮助。无论以何种标准衡量,戈尔巴乔夫都是一位非常开明的政治领袖,不仅仅是与他的苏联前任相比。在他成为苏联最后一任领导人的不到七年的时间里,他的政治思想继续发生着巨大的变化。在这一时期,不仅他的许多具体政策发生了变化,而且他的一些最终目标也发生了变化。如果他在1985年3月或4月坦率地提出他希望在国内实现的目标,那将是一个意义重大但相对温和的改革计划,包括振兴苏联经济,扩大苏联现有政治制度的可能性限制,以及一些文化自由化。但从1987年开始,他把政治转型放在了比经济重组更重要的位置,部分原因是他在决定苏联部长会议及其组成部分的政策方面的作用有限。1985年至1990年,苏联部长会议是一个庞大的官僚结构,由尼古拉·雷日科夫(Nikolai Ryzhkov)领导。直到1989年底,戈尔巴乔夫对雷日科夫仍有一定的信心,尽管雷日科夫的改革思想是有限的、技术官僚主义的,而且往往适得其反。然而,到那时,戈尔巴乔夫意识到需要采取更大胆的以市场为导向的措施,他邀请了亲市场经济学家、中央经济数学研究所副所长尼古拉·彼得拉科夫(Nikolai Petrakov)加入他的助手团队,担任经济顾问。彼得拉科夫在整个1990年任职,但随着经济每况愈下,“民族问题”变得更加严重,戈尔巴乔夫犹豫是否支持转向市场价格。在对改革及其领导人的支持率直线下降之际,取消基本食品补贴可能会激起更多民众的不满。回想起来,戈尔巴乔夫的结论可能是正确的,1987-1988年是“政治上和经济上进行”更激进的经济改革(包括价格改革)的正确时机,他当时没有采取行动是一个“战略失误”。 祖博克认为,1990年11月《巴黎宪章》的签署是“戈尔巴乔夫与布什就镇压叶利钦单边分离主义的必要性达成谅解的完美时机”(第172页)。暂且不提美国国会和公众舆论是否会允许布什推行这样一项政策的合理质疑,这无疑会损害苏联的民主化。对戈尔巴乔夫来说,这是不愿意进行镇压的充分理由——但对祖博克来说却不是,他认为戈尔巴乔夫追求民主是一个错误的计划,在他的结束语中,他似乎更喜欢“保留权力机构”的“名利场式的国家资本主义”(第437页)。这些机构可能包括共产党的机构,因为祖博克对戈尔巴乔夫贬低和精简党的机构持批评态度。祖博克认为,戈尔巴乔夫在1988年末“做出了一个历史性的误判”,当时他“拆除了党的机构,把它作为唯一可能使改革和整个国家处于控制之下的工具”(第42页)。的确,戈尔巴乔夫因此失去了迄今为止苏共总书记在全国范围内实施政策的主要杠杆。但是,党的机器也是一种力量,它可以稀释和破坏改革,并确保改革不会从根本上扰乱现状。尽管戈尔巴乔夫在1990年3月将体制内权力最高的职位从总书记转移到新设立的苏维埃主席职位,但后者缺乏迄今为止掌握在党的领导人手中的执行政策的杠杆。他并没有像他在国内外的一些敌人所宣称的那样,给自己独裁的权力,而是缩减了权力。祖博克把戈尔巴乔夫描述为“一个破坏了旧权力基础,却没有建立新的权力基础的领导人”,这在很大程度上是正确的(第155页)。戈尔巴乔夫对民主制度建设的兴趣远比他的主要竞争对手叶利钦强烈,更不用说叶利钦指定的继任者弗拉基米尔·普京了,后者的兴趣在于颠覆已经形成的新的民主规范和制度。但是,在一个交叉压力严重的时代,政治改革只能通过一个反复试验的过程来进行。随着问题的增加,戈尔巴乔夫的各种政治敌人不知不觉地联合起来,确保他没有时间了。祖博克写道,从1990年3月起,戈尔巴乔夫“主持了三个机构:政治局、总统委员会和联邦委员会”,但“主要问题仍然是一样的:戈尔巴乔夫手中不是缺乏权力,而是他缺乏使用权力的想法——以及他原则性地拒绝使用武力”(第108页,重点补充)。这与我在前一段引用的祖博克更贴切的说法不一致,他说戈尔巴乔夫破坏了他的旧权力基础,而没有建立新的权力基础。苏共内部的“民主集中制”在1989年3月苏联人民代表大会选举的准备阶段被放弃,党内自上而下的纪律因此丧失。但国家主席委员会并不能真正取代以前强大的政治局,因为它本质上是一个咨询机构,既没有行政权,也没有下属机构来执行其意愿。联邦委员会的成立是对权力从中央转移到各共和国的程度的含蓄承认。正如祖博克指出的那样,戈尔巴乔夫确实拥有同时担任这三个机构主席的优势。撇开新成立的重要苏维埃立法机构不谈,在祖布克的主要执行机构名单中,没有部长会议和部长网络。戈尔巴乔夫从未主持过部长会议(1991年1月更名为内阁)。此外,他在议会中的权力和影响是有限的。从1985年3月戈尔巴乔夫成为苏共领导人,到1991年8月尼古拉·吉洪诺夫(Nikolay Tikhonov)发动政变,然后由雷日科夫(Ryzhkov)担任了五年多,从1991年1月开始,该机构更名为部长内阁,由瓦伦丁·巴甫洛夫(Valentin Pavlov)担任。巴甫洛夫获得了总理这个更大的头衔,他在那一年里多次密谋反对戈尔巴乔夫,并加入了反对他的政变策划者。众多的工业部门是强大的官僚机构,随着党对其监督的减弱,它们获得了更多的事实上的自主权。领导他们的部长们并不是戈尔巴乔夫任命的。他只在电力部门长官和外交通商部长官的任命上拥有最大的发言权。
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引用次数: 0
Constructing Nuclear Culture under Soviet-Style Communism: The Hungarian Experience 苏式共产主义下的核文化建设:匈牙利的经验
2区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/jcws_a_01160
Gábor Palló, Matthew Adamson
Abstract In the mid-1950s, Atoms for Peace provided a crucial boost for the study of nuclear physics in Hungary, a country that fell under Communist rule and Soviet domination after World War II. Several small, insulated centers of nuclear research already existed, but after President Dwight Eisenhower's speech to the United Nations General Assembly on 3 December 1953, calling for the development of Atoms for Peace programs, Hungary's efforts began to grow quickly. In the glow of the moment, with significant support from the government and the ruling Communist party, Hungarian physicists established new research centers, bought and constructed instruments, published specialized books and journals, held conferences, and organized university courses and programs to train experts both at home and in the USSR. These activities constituted a new, vibrant nuclear culture encompassing diverse areas of life (agriculture, medicine, and some parts of industry) and eventually some cooperative links with Western and Soviet-bloc scientific communities.
在20世纪50年代中期,原子用于和平为匈牙利的核物理研究提供了至关重要的推动,匈牙利是一个在第二次世界大战后落入共产主义统治和苏联统治的国家。几个小型的、绝缘的核研究中心已经存在,但在德怀特·艾森豪威尔总统于1953年12月3日在联合国大会上发表演讲后,呼吁发展原子能和平计划,匈牙利的努力开始迅速发展。当时,在政府和执政的共产党的大力支持下,匈牙利物理学家建立了新的研究中心,购买和建造仪器,出版专业书籍和期刊,召开会议,组织大学课程和项目,培训国内和苏联的专家。这些活动构成了一种新的、充满活力的核文化,涵盖了生活的各个领域(农业、医学和工业的某些部分),并最终与西方和苏联集团的科学界建立了一些合作关系。
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引用次数: 0
Unmaking Détente: Yugoslavia, the United States, and the Global Cold War, 1968–1980 by Milorad Lazic 米洛拉德·拉齐奇的《解除武装:南斯拉夫、美国和全球冷战,1968-1980》
2区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/jcws_r_01153
Lorraine M. Lees
Although Yugoslavia was not a major power, it played a significant role in the Cold War. The West initially perceived Josip Broz Tito, who became the country’s leader in the wake of its partition and occupation by the Axis, to be the most loyal follower of the Soviet leader Joseph Stalin. But Stalin soon came to perceive Tito as a rival and expelled Yugoslavia from the Communist Information Bureau (Cominform) in 1948, hoping to precipitate Tito’s downfall. Yugoslavia, facing economic ruin and fearing a Soviet invasion, had no choice but to turn to the West. U.S. officials believed that Yugoslavia’s geographic location could make a significant contribution to the security of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and they assisted the country in its battle to survive Soviet pressure. Tito took full advantage of his position and became adept at playing the United States and the USSR against each other to enhance his country’s economic and political security and to develop new initiatives at home and abroad. Yugoslavia’s importance as a Communist state resisting Soviet imperialism, as a champion of a “third way” between the capitalist and Communist camps, and as a model for a different kind of state-managed economic system enabled the country to “punch above its weight” in international affairs (p. 256). By the 1970s, Yugoslavia’s position had become more precarious. In this wellresearched monograph, Milorad Lazic analyzes the challenges to Yugoslavia’s stability posed by several internal and external factors. Tito in the final years of his life was increasingly concerned about how the country would handle the transition to a new leader. Unity and cohesion at home had always been viewed as essential to Yugoslavia’s survival, but internal divisions, both ethnic and political, had accelerated. These developments magnified what the Yugoslavs saw as a constant external threat, namely, meddling or outright invasion by the Soviet Union. Tito had always been adept at balancing his country between the United States and the USSR, but Lazic posits that Tito viewed their détente in the early 1970s as a threat to that policy and hence to his country’s existence. Was détente merely a façade for a spheres-of-influence agreement, “a new Yalta” (p. xvi) that would leave Yugoslavia at the mercy of the Soviet Union? The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which Tito had championed as an alternative to a bipolar international order, was also vulnerable because of the efforts by Fidel Castro’s Cuba, encouraged by Moscow, to bring the NAM into the Soviet camp.
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引用次数: 0
The “Bounties of Our New Servant”: Isotopes, Industry, and Economy before and after Atoms for Peace “我们新仆人的恩惠”:原子用于和平前后的同位素、工业和经济
2区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/jcws_a_01157
Néstor Herran
Abstract Produced and distributed at subsidized prices by national nuclear establishments, radioisotopes provided the earliest non-military application of nuclear energy. Starting in the late 1940s, thanks to their multiple uses in medicine and research, they were ubiquitous in conceptions for peaceful nuclear programs. In the 1950s, Atoms for Peace initiatives encouraged nuclear establishments to develop industrial applications of radioisotopes, stressing the economic benefits of their use. However, the spread of radioisotopes in industry turned out to be more problematic than envisaged, as it had to confront an increasing awareness of radiation risks. In this sense, the main effect of Atoms for Peace seems to have been the establishment of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as the major actor in dealing with isotopes and their commercial distribution.
放射性同位素由国家核机构以补贴价格生产和销售,是核能最早的非军事应用。从20世纪40年代末开始,由于它们在医学和研究中的多种用途,它们在和平核项目的概念中无处不在。1950年代,原子能促和平倡议鼓励核机构开发放射性同位素的工业应用,强调其使用的经济效益。然而,放射性同位素在工业中的扩散比设想的问题更大,因为它必须面对对辐射风险日益增加的认识。从这个意义上说,原子促进和平的主要影响似乎是建立了国际原子能机构(原子能机构),使其成为处理同位素及其商业分配的主要行动者。
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引用次数: 0
Atoms for Industry: The Early Nuclear Activities of Fiat and the Atoms for Peace Program in Italy, 1956–1959 工业用原子:菲亚特的早期核活动和意大利的和平用原子计划,1956-1959
2区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/jcws_a_01159
Barbara Curli
Abstract Fiat's nuclear activities began in the immediate postwar period, when the company financed initiatives meant to reconstruct applied and theoretical research on nuclear physics in Italy. However, its actual industrial involvement originated in the framework of the Atoms for Peace initiative, which provided the opportunity for the purchase of an American Machine and Foundry pool-type reactor for a research center founded by Società Ricerche Impianti Nucleari (SORIN), a joint-venture created in 1956 by Fiat and the Italian chemical company Montecatini. SORIN developed know-how and technology in the electromechanical and biomedical industries. The SORIN center was the first private initiative within the Atoms for Peace framework. This article is a first attempt to assess Fiat's involvement in the nuclear sector, shedding light on the reception of Atoms for Peace in Italy and the way various actors on the Italian nuclear scene used it to pursue their own objectives during the Cold War.
菲亚特的核活动始于战后初期,当时该公司资助了旨在重建意大利核物理应用和理论研究的计划。然而,其实际的工业参与起源于原子和平倡议的框架,该倡议为由菲亚特和意大利化学公司Montecatini于1956年成立的societ Ricerche Impianti Nucleari (SORIN)成立的研究中心提供了购买美国机器和铸造池型反应堆的机会。SORIN开发了机电和生物医学行业的专业知识和技术。SORIN中心是原子促进和平框架内的第一个私人倡议。本文首次尝试评估菲亚特在核能领域的参与,揭示了意大利对和平原子的接受情况,以及冷战期间意大利核能领域的各种参与者如何利用它来实现自己的目标。
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引用次数: 0
Atoms for Peace in the 1950s: Lessons from the Spread of Nuclear Technology in the Early Cold War 1950年代的原子促进和平:冷战初期核技术扩散的教训
2区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/jcws_a_01156
Paul R. Josephson
Abstract The articles in this special issue shed light on the influence of the Eisenhower administration's “Atoms for Peace” proposal on the civilian nuclear programs of five European countries, including Italy and France, which were member-states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO); Hungary and Czechoslovakia, which were part of the USSR's Communist bloc; and Spain, which did not become a member of NATO until nearly three decades later. Based on detailed archival research, the articles analyze the commercial, scientific, practical, and cultural aspects of nascent nuclear research programs in these five countries. The authors demonstrate that all five acted early on to pursue peaceful nuclear activities for their own economic benefit.
摘要:本特刊文章分析了艾森豪威尔政府提出的“原子能促和平”计划对北大西洋公约组织(NATO)成员国意大利、法国等5个欧洲国家民用核项目的影响;匈牙利和捷克斯洛伐克是苏联共产主义集团的一部分;以及西班牙,该国直到近30年后才成为北约成员国。本文以详细的档案研究为基础,分析了这五个国家新兴核研究项目的商业、科学、实践和文化方面。作者证明,这五个国家都很早就采取行动,为了自己的经济利益追求和平的核活动。
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引用次数: 0
From Global to Local: The Development of Heavy Water in International Nuclear Programs (1945–1970) 从全球到地方:重水在国际核项目中的发展(1945-1970)
2区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/jcws_a_01158
Gloria Sanz-Lafuente
Abstract Because of how heavy water is produced and used, it has a unique business history and structure. In the late 1940s and 1950s, heavy-water reactors offered the dream of nearly inexhaustible quantities of nuclear power generation. This was because they could operate using natural uranium and also produce plutonium that could be used as fuel in breeder reactors (and also as fissile material for nuclear weapons). Several of the processes and materials used in synthetic fertilizer production could also be used, in somewhat modified form, in the production of heavy water. Yet the production costs for heavy water are exceedingly high, requiring copious amounts of electricity and the infrastructure of an advanced chemical industry. This article suggests that in several countries the fertilizer and heavy-water industries had a close relationship. The governments in those countries, seeking to increase the national trade in fertilizers and to develop domestic nuclear programs, supported both industries. The case of the Spanish Nuclear Board and Energía e Industrias Aragonesas in Sabiñanigo is instructive in this regard.
由于重水的生产和利用方式,它具有独特的商业历史和结构。在20世纪40年代末和50年代,重水反应堆提供了几乎取之不尽的核能发电的梦想。这是因为他们可以使用天然铀,也可以生产钚,钚可以用作增殖反应堆的燃料(也可以作为核武器的裂变材料)。在合成肥料生产中使用的若干方法和材料,也可以以稍加改进的形式用于生产重水。然而,生产重水的成本非常高,需要大量的电力和先进化学工业的基础设施。在一些国家,化肥与重水工业有着密切的关系。这些国家的政府寻求增加国内化肥贸易和发展国内核计划,支持这两个行业。西班牙核能委员会和Energía e Industrias Aragonesas在Sabiñanigo的案例在这方面具有指导意义。
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引用次数: 0
The Many Faces of SALT SALT的多面性
IF 0.8 2区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1162/jcws_a_01105
R. Jervis
Abstract This interpretive essay explores the multiple, changing faces of the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks. When SALT I was being negotiated in the early 1970s, it was generally viewed as the product of contemporary arms control theory that stressed the value of crisis stability. The U.S. national security adviser at the time, Henry Kissinger, justified the talks in those terms while also positioning them as part of a broader attempt to forge a détente with the Soviet Union. But after the Cold War ended, Kissinger claimed that he had really been engaging in a holding operation to buy time for the U.S. government to rebuild support for a more assertive policy. Declassified documents reveal that he and President Richard Nixon hoped that technological innovations would yield military and political advantages. The two of them believed that previous administrations had failed to overcome dangerous military vulnerabilities and that the United States could get a better deal because the USSR was more anxious for an agreement than Nixon and Kissinger were. In the end, however, this did not prove to be the case, and SALT was little different from the sorts of policies Nixon and Kissinger had scorned. But SALT I was a centerpiece of détente and a symbol of U.S. and Soviet leaders’ recognition that each side had a legitimate interest in the other's military posture.
摘要这篇解释性文章探讨了限制战略武器谈判的多重变化的面貌。20世纪70年代初,当SALT I谈判时,人们普遍认为它是强调危机稳定价值的当代军备控制理论的产物。当时的美国国家安全顾问亨利·基辛格(Henry Kissinger)用这些话为谈判辩护,同时也将其定位为与苏联达成缓和关系的更广泛尝试的一部分。但在冷战结束后,基辛格声称,他真的一直在参与一场控股行动,为美国政府争取时间,以重建对更强硬政策的支持。解密文件显示,他和理查德·尼克松总统希望技术创新能带来军事和政治优势。他们两人认为,前几届政府未能克服危险的军事弱点,美国可以达成更好的协议,因为苏联比尼克松和基辛格更渴望达成协议。然而,最终情况并非如此,SALT与尼克松和基辛格所蔑视的政策几乎没有什么不同。但SALT I是缓和的核心,也是美国和苏联领导人承认双方对对方军事态势都有合法利益的象征。
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引用次数: 0
The First Counterspy: Larry Haas, Bell Aircraft, and the FBI’s Attempt to Capture a Soviet Mole by Kay Haas and Walter W. Pickut 《第一个反间谍:拉里·哈斯、贝尔飞机公司和联邦调查局抓捕苏联间谍的尝试》,作者:凯·哈斯和沃尔特·w·皮库特
IF 0.8 2区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1162/jcws_r_01106
Steven T. Usdin
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引用次数: 0
The United States and Strategic Arms Limitation during the Nixon-Kissinger Period: Building a Stable International System? 尼克松-基辛格时期的美国与战略武器限制:建立一个稳定的国际体系?
IF 0.8 2区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1162/jcws_a_01104
Marc Trachtenberg
Abstract The Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) played a key role in U.S.-Soviet relations in the early 1970s. This article reassesses some aspects of the SALT process in the light of important evidence that has become available in recent years. The key question is whether U.S. policy in the SALT negotiations was rooted in strategic stability theory—that is, in the idea that both major powers should work out an arrangement that would guarantee the survivability and effectiveness of both sides’ strategic nuclear forces, thereby reducing whatever incentive either of them might have to strike first in a crisis. The notion that U.S. policy on SALT was rooted in that theory is essentially a myth—although a myth that had important political consequences. The SALT process of the 1970s, as shaped by decisions made during the administration of Richard M. Nixon, helped pave the way for the hardening of U.S. policy toward the Soviet Union in the early 1980s—scarcely the result supporters of nuclear arms control had been hoping for a decade earlier.
20世纪70年代初,限制战略武器谈判在美苏关系中发挥了重要作用。本文根据近年来可用的重要证据,重新评估了SALT过程的某些方面。关键问题是,美国在SALT谈判中的政策是否植根于战略稳定理论——也就是说,这两个大国都应该制定一项安排,保证双方战略核力量的生存能力和有效性,从而减少双方在危机中首先发动打击的动机。美国对SALT的政策植根于该理论的说法本质上是一个神话——尽管这个神话产生了重要的政治后果。20世纪70年代的SALT进程,由理查德·M·尼克松政府时期的决定决定,为美国在20世纪80年代初加强对苏政策铺平了道路——这几乎不是核军备控制支持者十年前所希望的结果。
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Journal of Cold War Studies
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