Pub Date : 2025-12-15DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110977
Fernanda Leite Cunha , Otávio Camargo Campoe , Cléber Rodrigo de Souza , Isaira Leite & Lopes , Yann Nouvellon , Timothy Albaugh , David R. Carter , Rafael Rubilar , Isabel Deliberari , Rachel Cook , Joannès Guillemot , Guerric Le Maire , Jean-Paul Laclau , Jose Luiz Stape , Clayton Alcarde Alvares
Brazilian Eucalyptus and Pinus forests are the most productive forests worldwide. The growth rates of these intensively managed plantations depend strongly on environmental conditions and matching genotypes to local environments. Changing climates underscore the value of understanding the intricacies of how these plantations can fix high amounts of carbon (C) and grow so much wood. We measured the full C budgets of Eucalyptus and Pinus forests across climate gradients in Brazil, focusing on the rates of C uptake, the allocation of C to belowground roots and mycorrhizae, and stem growth. We found that gross primary production (GPP) varied more than sixfold across the climate conditions in Brazil. Maximum temperature was the main climatic driver of productivity, where extreme temperatures reduced fluxes to stem production while increasing fluxes to root production. Net ecosystem production varied with management and age across the sites. The ecophysiological investigation presented in this work is fundamental for understanding C partitioning behavior under extreme temperature conditions. In this way, our results provide tools for forest managers to support their decision-making processes as well as starting points for strategies to be implemented in projects aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change.
{"title":"Carbon fluxes and partitioning in Eucalyptus and Pinus plantations across a climatic gradient in Brazil","authors":"Fernanda Leite Cunha , Otávio Camargo Campoe , Cléber Rodrigo de Souza , Isaira Leite & Lopes , Yann Nouvellon , Timothy Albaugh , David R. Carter , Rafael Rubilar , Isabel Deliberari , Rachel Cook , Joannès Guillemot , Guerric Le Maire , Jean-Paul Laclau , Jose Luiz Stape , Clayton Alcarde Alvares","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110977","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110977","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Brazilian <em>Eucalyptus</em> and <em>Pinus</em> forests are the most productive forests worldwide. The growth rates of these intensively managed plantations depend strongly on environmental conditions and matching genotypes to local environments. Changing climates underscore the value of understanding the intricacies of how these plantations can fix high amounts of carbon (C) and grow so much wood. We measured the full C budgets of <em>Eucalyptus</em> and <em>Pinus</em> forests across climate gradients in Brazil, focusing on the rates of C uptake, the allocation of C to belowground roots and mycorrhizae, and stem growth. We found that gross primary production (GPP) varied more than sixfold across the climate conditions in Brazil. Maximum temperature was the main climatic driver of productivity, where extreme temperatures reduced fluxes to stem production while increasing fluxes to root production. Net ecosystem production varied with management and age across the sites. The ecophysiological investigation presented in this work is fundamental for understanding C partitioning behavior under extreme temperature conditions. In this way, our results provide tools for forest managers to support their decision-making processes as well as starting points for strategies to be implemented in projects aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"378 ","pages":"Article 110977"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145753299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-13DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110982
Yuefeng Hao , Jiafu Mao , Yaoping Wang , Lianhong Gu , Jeffrey Wood , Paul J. Hanson , Melanie A. Mayes , Mingzhou Jin , Peter E. Thornton , Xiaoying Shi , Daniel M. Ricciuto
Flash droughts (FD), rapidly emerging in a warming future, disrupt ecosystems, agriculture, and water security. Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE), the ratio of gross primary production (GPP) to actual evapotranspiration (AET), balances carbon assimilation and water loss. FD rapidly disrupts this balance, making WUE critical for assessing plant stress and recovery. This study investigates the dynamics of landscape-scale WUE, and the components of GPP and AET under FD utilizing both observed data from the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux site (US-MOz) and version 2 of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Earth, Energy, Exascale System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELMv2). Observations and simulations reveal GPP as dominant for WUE during earlier FD events (2005, 2007, 2012), shifting to AET in recent events (2014, 2018). This agreement indicates that the ELM can capture the shifting dynamics of GPP and AET in regulating WUE under FD conditions. However, the ELM systematically underestimates both GPP and AET and does so in a manner that does not preserve their ratio. As a result, WUE is also underestimated, suggesting that GPP is more strongly underestimated than AET. Furthermore, the ELM also underestimates the speed of GPP recovery, producing an artificially prolonged GPP recovery time following FD events. Observed environmental drivers such as vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil moisture (SM), and predawn leaf water potential (PLWP) effectively predict WUE, but ELM primarily highlights SM, underestimating VPD’s role. This study demonstrates that relying solely on soil moisture fails to capture the rapid hydraulic recovery observed in PLWP, underscoring the necessity of integrating plant hydraulics into land surface models to improve flash drought predictability.
{"title":"Evaluating ecosystem water use efficiency and recovery dynamics during flash droughts: insights from observations and model simulations","authors":"Yuefeng Hao , Jiafu Mao , Yaoping Wang , Lianhong Gu , Jeffrey Wood , Paul J. Hanson , Melanie A. Mayes , Mingzhou Jin , Peter E. Thornton , Xiaoying Shi , Daniel M. Ricciuto","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110982","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110982","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flash droughts (FD), rapidly emerging in a warming future, disrupt ecosystems, agriculture, and water security. Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE), the ratio of gross primary production (GPP) to actual evapotranspiration (AET), balances carbon assimilation and water loss. FD rapidly disrupts this balance, making WUE critical for assessing plant stress and recovery. This study investigates the dynamics of landscape-scale WUE, and the components of GPP and AET under FD utilizing both observed data from the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux site (US-MOz) and version 2 of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Earth, Energy, Exascale System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELMv2). Observations and simulations reveal GPP as dominant for WUE during earlier FD events (2005, 2007, 2012), shifting to AET in recent events (2014, 2018). This agreement indicates that the ELM can capture the shifting dynamics of GPP and AET in regulating WUE under FD conditions. However, the ELM systematically underestimates both GPP and AET and does so in a manner that does not preserve their ratio. As a result, WUE is also underestimated, suggesting that GPP is more strongly underestimated than AET. Furthermore, the ELM also underestimates the speed of GPP recovery, producing an artificially prolonged GPP recovery time following FD events. Observed environmental drivers such as vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil moisture (SM), and predawn leaf water potential (PLWP) effectively predict WUE, but ELM primarily highlights SM, underestimating VPD’s role. This study demonstrates that relying solely on soil moisture fails to capture the rapid hydraulic recovery observed in PLWP, underscoring the necessity of integrating plant hydraulics into land surface models to improve flash drought predictability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"378 ","pages":"Article 110982"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145731138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-13DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110991
Qian Li , Yuemin Yue , Lu Wang , Xiangkun Qi , Kelin Wang
Although previous studies have shown that bedrock composition regulates vegetation drought vulnerability, the variability in the response and recovery mechanisms of vegetation under different lithologic contexts remain unclear. Based on the record-breaking extreme drought that occurred in Southwest China in 2022, this study integrated multi-source remote sensing data to systematically assess productivity loss, vegetation recovery time, and their main controlling factors across karst regions (dolomite and limestone) and non-karst regions (clastic rocks). The results showed that vegetation in dolomite areas experienced the most severe productivity loss, maximum GPP (Gross Primary Productivity) loss of shrubland reached 494 kg C/m², 2.57 times higher than that in clastic rock regions, and the average recovery time after drought reached 5.08 months, 1.60 times longer than in clastic regions. Importance analysis indicated that WUE (Water Use Efficiency) was the key factor affecting vegetation recovery in dolomite and limestone regions, with importance values of 0.76 and 0.35, respectively; whereas, temperature was the dominant factor in clastic rocks region (importance value = 0.85). Although vegetation in limestone areas recovered slightly faster than in dolomite, it was still limited by weak WUE. Coupled analysis of WUE and SSM (Surface Soil Moisture) revealed that WUE decreases with greater water availability in limestone and dolomite areas but increases in clastic regions, reflecting a higher water-use responsiveness of vegetation on clastic bedrock. This indicates that the limited soil water-holding capacity in karst regions restricts the potential for efficient water use under high-moisture conditions.
虽然已有研究表明基岩组成调节植被干旱脆弱性,但不同岩性背景下植被响应和恢复机制的变异性尚不清楚。以2022年中国西南地区发生的破纪录极端干旱为背景,综合多源遥感数据,系统评价了岩溶区(白云岩和灰岩)和非岩溶区(碎屑岩)的生产力损失、植被恢复时间及其主控因素。结果表明:白云岩区植被生产力损失最为严重,灌丛植被GPP损失最大,达494 kg C/m²,是碎屑岩区GPP损失的2.57倍;干旱后平均恢复时间达5.08个月,是碎屑岩区GPP损失的1.60倍;重要性分析表明,水利用效率(WUE)是影响白云岩区和灰岩区植被恢复的关键因素,重要性值分别为0.76和0.35;而在碎屑岩区,温度是主导因素(重要值= 0.85)。尽管灰岩区植被恢复速度略快于白云岩区,但仍受WUE较弱的限制。WUE和SSM(表层土壤水分)耦合分析表明,灰岩和白云岩区WUE随水分有效度增大而减小,碎屑岩区WUE随水分有效度增大而增大,反映碎屑岩基岩上植被对水分利用的响应性较高。这表明喀斯特地区有限的土壤持水能力限制了高水分条件下有效利用水分的潜力。
{"title":"Bedrock controls vegetation resilience: Dominant role of lithology in the 2022 southern China drought","authors":"Qian Li , Yuemin Yue , Lu Wang , Xiangkun Qi , Kelin Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110991","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110991","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although previous studies have shown that bedrock composition regulates vegetation drought vulnerability, the variability in the response and recovery mechanisms of vegetation under different lithologic contexts remain unclear. Based on the record-breaking extreme drought that occurred in Southwest China in 2022, this study integrated multi-source remote sensing data to systematically assess productivity loss, vegetation recovery time, and their main controlling factors across karst regions (dolomite and limestone) and non-karst regions (clastic rocks). The results showed that vegetation in dolomite areas experienced the most severe productivity loss, maximum GPP (Gross Primary Productivity) loss of shrubland reached 494 kg C/m², 2.57 times higher than that in clastic rock regions, and the average recovery time after drought reached 5.08 months, 1.60 times longer than in clastic regions. Importance analysis indicated that WUE (Water Use Efficiency) was the key factor affecting vegetation recovery in dolomite and limestone regions, with importance values of 0.76 and 0.35, respectively; whereas, temperature was the dominant factor in clastic rocks region (importance value = 0.85). Although vegetation in limestone areas recovered slightly faster than in dolomite, it was still limited by weak WUE. Coupled analysis of WUE and SSM (Surface Soil Moisture) revealed that WUE decreases with greater water availability in limestone and dolomite areas but increases in clastic regions, reflecting a higher water-use responsiveness of vegetation on clastic bedrock. This indicates that the limited soil water-holding capacity in karst regions restricts the potential for efficient water use under high-moisture conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"378 ","pages":"Article 110991"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145753300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-13DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110964
Lorena Oliveira Barbosa , Otávio Camargo Campoe , José Roberto Soares Scolforo , Henrique Ferraço Scolforo , Timothy J. Albaugh , Rachel Cook , Rafael Rubilar , Juscelina Arcanjo Santos
Pinus taeda is a species native to southeastern regions of the United State (USA), but plantations with the highest productivity are found in the southern region of Brazil (BRA). The objective of our study was to determine the higher (Light Use Efficiency) LUE and absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) of P. taeda genotypes with different spacings in order to evaluate potential strategies that could increase the productivity of intensively managed stands in Brazil and the United States. The experiment was designed as a split-split-plot, and evaluations included 81 trees in BRA and 63 trees in the USA, two genotypes (clone C3 vs. open pollination (OP)) and two spacings (BRA – 2.4 × 6.8 m, 613 trees/ha; USA – 3.66 × 4.42 m, 618 trees/ha) and narrow spacing (BRA – 2.4 × 2.2 m, 1894 trees/ha; USA – 3.66 × 1.47 m, 1853 trees/ha). Individual tree calculations of LUE were made at both locations for each tree by dividing its current annual stem increment (WNPPi) by APAR estimated from MAESTRA, a process-based model. The parameterization of this model included the use of forest inventory data, meteorological data, crown characteristics (average crown radius, height, diameter, and leaf area), leaf area density distribution, leaf transmittance, and leaf and soil reflectance. Results showed that trees growing in Brazil had greater leaf area (32%) and stem biomass growth (5%) and absorbed more light (49%) than trees in the USA. The genotype C3 was more efficient than OP in light use at both locations. Narrow spacing resulted in higher LUE values (0,8 g MJ-1). APAR explain 80% and 65% of WNPP in BRA and USA, respective. Our results suggest that LUE explained the growth differences between sites, genotypes, and spacings, while APAR provided a better differentiation of WNPP between the sites.
{"title":"APAR is a better predictor than LUE of the stem growth differences found between Loblolly pine grown in the United State and Brazil","authors":"Lorena Oliveira Barbosa , Otávio Camargo Campoe , José Roberto Soares Scolforo , Henrique Ferraço Scolforo , Timothy J. Albaugh , Rachel Cook , Rafael Rubilar , Juscelina Arcanjo Santos","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110964","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110964","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><em>Pinus taeda</em> is a species native to southeastern regions of the United State (USA), but plantations with the highest productivity are found in the southern region of Brazil (BRA). The objective of our study was to determine the higher (Light Use Efficiency) LUE and absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) of <em>P. taeda</em> genotypes with different spacings in order to evaluate potential strategies that could increase the productivity of intensively managed stands in Brazil and the United States. The experiment was designed as a split-split-plot, and evaluations included 81 trees in BRA and 63 trees in the USA, two genotypes (clone C3 vs. open pollination (OP)) and two spacings (BRA – 2.4 × 6.8 m, 613 trees/ha; USA – 3.66 × 4.42 m, 618 trees/ha) and narrow spacing (BRA – 2.4 × 2.2 m, 1894 trees/ha; USA – 3.66 × 1.47 m, 1853 trees/ha). Individual tree calculations of LUE were made at both locations for each tree by dividing its current annual stem increment (WNPPi) by APAR estimated from MAESTRA, a process-based model. The parameterization of this model included the use of forest inventory data, meteorological data, crown characteristics (average crown radius, height, diameter, and leaf area), leaf area density distribution, leaf transmittance, and leaf and soil reflectance. Results showed that trees growing in Brazil had greater leaf area (32%) and stem biomass growth (5%) and absorbed more light (49%) than trees in the USA. The genotype C3 was more efficient than OP in light use at both locations. Narrow spacing resulted in higher LUE values (0,8 g MJ<sup>-1</sup>). APAR explain 80% and 65% of WNPP in BRA and USA, respective. Our results suggest that LUE explained the growth differences between sites, genotypes, and spacings, while APAR provided a better differentiation of WNPP between the sites.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"378 ","pages":"Article 110964"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145753301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate change is reshaping the geography of viticulture, threatening traditional wine regions while opening opportunities for new ones. This study applies a climate analogues approach to assess how European vineyards may evolve and/or shift under future climate scenarios. We tailor the method to viticulture by integrating bioclimatic indices related to vine growth and disease risks, correcting for vineyard-scale topography, and accounting for redundancy between the indices.
Our analysis supports both adaptation, by identifying present-day locations resembling future vineyard climates, and prospective expansion, by revealing regions with emerging suitability. We find that temperature-related indices related to plant growth drive north–south and elevation shifts, while pathogen-related indices-linked to humidity and precipitation-cause notable east–west displacements. While northern Europe may become thermally suitable for vine-growing by the end of the 21th century, its projected high humidity could intensify disease pressure, potentially limiting its long-term sustainability.
{"title":"Future viability of European vineyards using bioclimatic climate analogues","authors":"Héloïse Allaman , Stéphane Goyette , Pierre-Henri Dubuis , Jérôme Kasparian","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110978","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110978","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is reshaping the geography of viticulture, threatening traditional wine regions while opening opportunities for new ones. This study applies a climate analogues approach to assess how European vineyards may evolve and/or shift under future climate scenarios. We tailor the method to viticulture by integrating bioclimatic indices related to vine growth and disease risks, correcting for vineyard-scale topography, and accounting for redundancy between the indices.</div><div>Our analysis supports both adaptation, by identifying present-day locations resembling future vineyard climates, and prospective expansion, by revealing regions with emerging suitability. We find that temperature-related indices related to plant growth drive north–south and elevation shifts, while pathogen-related indices-linked to humidity and precipitation-cause notable east–west displacements. While northern Europe may become thermally suitable for vine-growing by the end of the 21th century, its projected high humidity could intensify disease pressure, potentially limiting its long-term sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"378 ","pages":"Article 110978"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145753357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-13DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110981
Rui Zhang , Jianhong Lin , Fucheng Wang , Nicolas Delpierre , Koen Kramer , Heikki Hänninen , Jiasheng Wu
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Spring phenology in subtropical trees: Developing process-based models on an experimental basis” [Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 314 (2022) 108802]","authors":"Rui Zhang , Jianhong Lin , Fucheng Wang , Nicolas Delpierre , Koen Kramer , Heikki Hänninen , Jiasheng Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110981","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110981","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"378 ","pages":"Article 110981"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145732625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-12DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110985
Jian Liu , Tao Zhou , Jingyu Zeng , Jingzhou Zhang , Xuemei Wu , Yajie Zhang , Qi Zhang , Yancheng Qu , Peixia Liu , Wenjuan Zhang , E Tan , Ying Yu , Li Cao
Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) is a key indicator of terrestrial carbon balance, and elucidating its spatiotemporal patterns is essential for understanding global carbon cycle processes and response mechanisms under climate change. However, substantial uncertainty persists owing to lag, legacy, and spatial neighbourhood effects, necessitating the joint consideration of memory and neighbourhood information for accurate NEP simulation. We developed a convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) deep-learning model using global flux observations, multisource remote sensing, and environmental driver data to capture spatiotemporal dependencies in simulating global terrestrial NEP and quantitatively compared it with models that consider only memory (LSTM), only neighbourhoods (CNN), or neither (ANN) to assess the synergistic importance of memory and neighbourhood effects in NEP simulations. The results demonstrated that (1) ConvLSTM performed best (mean site-level validation R2 = 0.72; RMSE = 0.86 g C m-2 d-1), with closer agreement to observations in long-term trends and interannual variation. LSTM (R2 = 0.66; RMSE = 0.94 g C m-2 d-1) and CNN (R2 = 0.67; RMSE = 0.93 g C m-2 d-1) results were intermediate, and the ANN was the worst (R2 = 0.56; RMSE = 1.06 g C m-2 d-1). (2) The results from ConvLSTM indicate that global terrestrial NEP increased from 2001 to 2023 (0.052 Pg C yr-2), with marked regional differences: parts of the Amazon and Congo showed declining sink capacity, whereas eastern China and India strengthened. Ignoring both memory and neighbourhood effects overestimated sink strength and growth in highly productive regions, and memory effects dominated neighbourhood effects in shaping NEP spatial patterns. (3) Jointly modelling memory and neighbourhood information also improved the detection of drought legacy effects and NEP responses to ENSO events.
净生态系统生产力(NEP)是陆地碳平衡的重要指标,阐明其时空格局对理解气候变化下全球碳循环过程及其响应机制具有重要意义。然而,由于滞后、遗留和空间邻域效应,大量的不确定性仍然存在,因此需要联合考虑记忆和邻域信息来进行准确的NEP模拟。我们开发了一个卷积长短期记忆(ConvLSTM)深度学习模型,利用全球通量观测、多源遥感和环境驱动数据来捕捉模拟全球陆地NEP的时空依赖性,并将其与仅考虑记忆(LSTM)、仅考虑邻域(CNN)或两者都不考虑(ANN)的模型进行定量比较,以评估记忆和邻域效应在NEP模拟中的协同重要性。结果表明:(1)ConvLSTM表现最佳(平均站点水平验证R2 = 0.72; RMSE = 0.86 g C m-2 d-1),与长期趋势和年际变化的观测结果更为吻合。LSTM (R2 = 0.66, RMSE = 0.94 g C m-2 d-1)和CNN (R2 = 0.67, RMSE = 0.93 g C m-2 d-1)结果为中等,ANN最差(R2 = 0.56, RMSE = 1.06 g C m-2 d-1)。(2) ConvLSTM结果表明,2001 - 2023年全球陆地NEP增加(0.052 Pg C -2),且区域差异显著:亚马逊河流域和刚果(金)部分地区的汇容量下降,而中国东部和印度的汇容量增强。在忽略记忆效应和邻域效应的情况下,高估了高产地区的汇强度和增长,记忆效应在形成新经济政策空间格局方面主导了邻域效应。(3)记忆和邻域信息的联合建模提高了干旱遗留效应的检测和NEP对ENSO事件的响应。
{"title":"Synergistic importance of memory and spatial neighbourhood effects in modelling net ecosystem productivity","authors":"Jian Liu , Tao Zhou , Jingyu Zeng , Jingzhou Zhang , Xuemei Wu , Yajie Zhang , Qi Zhang , Yancheng Qu , Peixia Liu , Wenjuan Zhang , E Tan , Ying Yu , Li Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110985","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110985","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) is a key indicator of terrestrial carbon balance, and elucidating its spatiotemporal patterns is essential for understanding global carbon cycle processes and response mechanisms under climate change. However, substantial uncertainty persists owing to lag, legacy, and spatial neighbourhood effects, necessitating the joint consideration of memory and neighbourhood information for accurate NEP simulation. We developed a convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) deep-learning model using global flux observations, multisource remote sensing, and environmental driver data to capture spatiotemporal dependencies in simulating global terrestrial NEP and quantitatively compared it with models that consider only memory (LSTM), only neighbourhoods (CNN), or neither (ANN) to assess the synergistic importance of memory and neighbourhood effects in NEP simulations. The results demonstrated that (1) ConvLSTM performed best (mean site-level validation R<sup>2</sup> = 0.72; RMSE = 0.86 g C m<sup>-2</sup> d<sup>-1</sup>), with closer agreement to observations in long-term trends and interannual variation. LSTM (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.66; RMSE = 0.94 g C m<sup>-2</sup> d<sup>-1</sup>) and CNN (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.67; RMSE = 0.93 g C m<sup>-2</sup> d<sup>-1</sup>) results were intermediate, and the ANN was the worst (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.56; RMSE = 1.06 g C m<sup>-2</sup> d<sup>-1</sup>). (2) The results from ConvLSTM indicate that global terrestrial NEP increased from 2001 to 2023 (0.052 Pg C yr<sup>-2</sup>), with marked regional differences: parts of the Amazon and Congo showed declining sink capacity, whereas eastern China and India strengthened. Ignoring both memory and neighbourhood effects overestimated sink strength and growth in highly productive regions, and memory effects dominated neighbourhood effects in shaping NEP spatial patterns. (3) Jointly modelling memory and neighbourhood information also improved the detection of drought legacy effects and NEP responses to ENSO events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"378 ","pages":"Article 110985"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145731181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-10DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110962
Vincenzo Baldan, Eugenio Straffelini, Vincenzo D’Agostino, Paolo Tarolli
The impact of extreme temperatures on viticulture in northeastern Italy is emerging as a significant risk for farmers due to the changing climate. Rising temperatures and stronger heatwaves are exacerbating the frequency of heat and the vegetation stress on the phenology of the plants. However, the influence of climate change in extreme surface temperature and the frequency of the vegetation stress over the years in northeastern Italy’s vineyards is still less explored. This study aims to analyse daytime and nighttime Land Surface Temperature (LST) and the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) from 2000 to 2024. The frequency distribution of extreme temperatures and vegetation stress was analysed using satellite data from the MODIS dataset, also considering three main vineyard classes. The study was conducted using Google Earth Engine platform, followed by a non-parametric trend analysis assessment. Results shows that nighttime LST is increasing significantly across the study area, while the daytime LST shows a significant increasing trend in flat vineyards, which are also more exposed to heat and vegetation stress. In contrast, steep and heroic vineyards are more affected by higher night temperatures. The VHI is getting worse in most of the study area, while the occurrences of the stress level increased in the 2020–2024 period. The findings could be used for structure guidelines for policy makers to design strategies to mitigate the impacts on vineyards. This work aims to stimulate further research into the effects of climate change on land surface temperature and vegetation stress in the Italian viticulture.
{"title":"Northeast Italian viticulture affected by heat and vegetation stress. A satellite-based study from 2000 to 2024","authors":"Vincenzo Baldan, Eugenio Straffelini, Vincenzo D’Agostino, Paolo Tarolli","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110962","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110962","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The impact of extreme temperatures on viticulture in northeastern Italy is emerging as a significant risk for farmers due to the changing climate. Rising temperatures and stronger heatwaves are exacerbating the frequency of heat and the vegetation stress on the phenology of the plants. However, the influence of climate change in extreme surface temperature and the frequency of the vegetation stress over the years in northeastern Italy’s vineyards is still less explored. This study aims to analyse daytime and nighttime Land Surface Temperature (LST) and the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) from 2000 to 2024. The frequency distribution of extreme temperatures and vegetation stress was analysed using satellite data from the MODIS dataset, also considering three main vineyard classes. The study was conducted using Google Earth Engine platform, followed by a non-parametric trend analysis assessment. Results shows that nighttime LST is increasing significantly across the study area, while the daytime LST shows a significant increasing trend in flat vineyards, which are also more exposed to heat and vegetation stress. In contrast, steep and heroic vineyards are more affected by higher night temperatures. The VHI is getting worse in most of the study area, while the occurrences of the stress level increased in the 2020–2024 period. The findings could be used for structure guidelines for policy makers to design strategies to mitigate the impacts on vineyards. This work aims to stimulate further research into the effects of climate change on land surface temperature and vegetation stress in the Italian viticulture.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"378 ","pages":"Article 110962"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145731693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-10DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110979
Mario Flores Aroni , José Henrique Cattanio , Mário Augusto Gonçalves Jardim , Steel Silva Vasconcelos , Claudio José Reis de Carvalho , Rafaela Sales de Morais , Edite Torres Maia
The exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) between the soil and the atmosphere in the Amazonian estuarine forests remains poorly quantified, obscuring their role in the greenhouse effect. However, the spatial and temporal variability of these gases needs to be better understood, mainly because of the constant occurrence of floods in this ecosystem. This is the first annual study that uses the closed dynamic chamber method to quantify CO2 and CH4 fluxes in relation to floristic composition and environmental variables in a floodplain forest in the Amazon estuary. The average soil flux was 13.60 g CO2 m-2 d-1 and 176.92 mg CH4 m-2 d-1, both presenting spatial and temporal variations. Soil CO2 flux was higher in the high topography areas and in the rainy season, and the CH4 flux was higher in the low topography areas and also in the rainy season. Greenhouse gas fluxes from soil in the Amazon floodplain are controlled by topography, which influences key determinants such as moisture (as water table height) soil temperature, and the soil carbon content. In this sense, the balance between carbon production and consumption depends on the hydrological conditions and the duration of floods, which can change under conditions of climate change.
在亚马逊河口森林中,土壤和大气之间的二氧化碳(CO2)和甲烷(CH4)交换仍然缺乏量化,模糊了它们在温室效应中的作用。然而,这些气体的时空变化需要更好地了解,主要是因为该生态系统中不断发生洪水。这是首次使用封闭动态室方法量化亚马逊河口洪泛区森林植物区系组成和环境变量之间的CO2和CH4通量的年度研究。土壤通量平均为13.60 g CO2 m-2 d-1和176.92 mg CH4 m-2 d-1,两者均存在时空差异。土壤CO2通量在高地形区和雨季较高,CH4通量在低地形区和雨季较高。亚马逊河漫滩土壤的温室气体通量受地形控制,地形影响着湿度(如地下水位高度)、土壤温度和土壤碳含量等关键决定因素。从这个意义上说,碳生产和消耗之间的平衡取决于水文条件和洪水的持续时间,这些条件在气候变化的条件下会发生变化。
{"title":"Greenhouse gas fluxes in a managed floodplain forest in the Amazon estuary","authors":"Mario Flores Aroni , José Henrique Cattanio , Mário Augusto Gonçalves Jardim , Steel Silva Vasconcelos , Claudio José Reis de Carvalho , Rafaela Sales de Morais , Edite Torres Maia","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110979","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110979","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The exchange of carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) and methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) between the soil and the atmosphere in the Amazonian estuarine forests remains poorly quantified, obscuring their role in the greenhouse effect. However, the spatial and temporal variability of these gases needs to be better understood, mainly because of the constant occurrence of floods in this ecosystem. This is the first annual study that uses the closed dynamic chamber method to quantify CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> fluxes in relation to floristic composition and environmental variables in a floodplain forest in the Amazon estuary. The average soil flux was 13.60 g CO<sub>2</sub> m<sup>-2</sup> d<sup>-1</sup> and 176.92 mg CH<sub>4</sub> m<sup>-2</sup> d<sup>-1</sup>, both presenting spatial and temporal variations. Soil CO<sub>2</sub> flux was higher in the high topography areas and in the rainy season, and the CH<sub>4</sub> flux was higher in the low topography areas and also in the rainy season. Greenhouse gas fluxes from soil in the Amazon floodplain are controlled by topography, which influences key determinants such as moisture (as water table height) soil temperature, and the soil carbon content. In this sense, the balance between carbon production and consumption depends on the hydrological conditions and the duration of floods, which can change under conditions of climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"378 ","pages":"Article 110979"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145731694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-10DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110966
Kukka-Maaria Kohonen , Angelika Kübert , Lutz Merbold , Matti Räsänen , Nina Buchmann , Ivan Mammarella , Petri Pellikka , Timo Vesala
Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) helps plants in arid regions to reduce water loss by opening their stomata and taking up carbon dioxide (CO) during nighttime. While gas exchange in CAM plants has been mainly studied under controlled laboratory conditions, only a few ecosystem scale studies exist. Moreover, carbonyl sulfide (COS) has been used as a tracer for stomatal conductance, transpiration and photosynthesis in C and C plants, but no studies on CAM ecosystems have yet been published. Here we present the first ecosystem scale measurements of COS fluxes over Agave sisalana (CAM plant), commercially cultivated for its fiber. The measurements were made during the wet season in Kenya. The ecosystem was a consistent sink of COS, with higher uptake observed during nighttime (−11.5 pmol m−2 s−1) than during daytime (-5.6 pmol m−2 s−1). The magnitude of COS fluxes was comparable to non-growing season daytime fluxes reported for C and C plant dominated ecosystems. The soil was a small COS source (0.3 pmol m−2 s−1), with highest emissions under high radiation and temperature conditions. Using random forest modeling, we found that vapor pressure deficit, air temperature and soil water content were the most important drivers of nighttime ecosystem COS exchange (variable importance 0.25, 0.23 and 0.20, respectively), indicating the importance of stomatal limitation for COS fluxes. During daytime, air temperature, photosynthetically active radiation and soil temperature were the most important drivers (variable importances 0.19, 0.18 and 0.18, respectively). COS fluxes were further used to track canopy stomatal conductance and transpiration and compared to another transpiration estimate from the conditional eddy covariance method, which is based on raw water vapor and vertical wind data from eddy covariance. Conductance values ranged from 0.03 ± 0.06 mol m−2 s−1 during daytime to 0.06 ± 0.02 mol m−2 s−1 during nighttime. Transpiration was thus higher during nighttime than during daytime, reflecting the CAM gas exchange strategy.
{"title":"Tracking canopy conductance and transpiration of CAM-plants Agave sisalana with carbonyl sulfide fluxes","authors":"Kukka-Maaria Kohonen , Angelika Kübert , Lutz Merbold , Matti Räsänen , Nina Buchmann , Ivan Mammarella , Petri Pellikka , Timo Vesala","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110966","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110966","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) helps plants in arid regions to reduce water loss by opening their stomata and taking up carbon dioxide (CO<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>) during nighttime. While gas exchange in CAM plants has been mainly studied under controlled laboratory conditions, only a few ecosystem scale studies exist. Moreover, carbonyl sulfide (COS) has been used as a tracer for stomatal conductance, transpiration and photosynthesis in C<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>3</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> and C<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>4</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> plants, but no studies on CAM ecosystems have yet been published. Here we present the first ecosystem scale measurements of COS fluxes over <em>Agave sisalana</em> (CAM plant), commercially cultivated for its fiber. The measurements were made during the wet season in Kenya. The ecosystem was a consistent sink of COS, with higher uptake observed during nighttime (−11.5 pmol m<sup>−2</sup> s<sup>−1</sup>) than during daytime (-5.6 pmol m<sup>−2</sup> s<sup>−1</sup>). The magnitude of COS fluxes was comparable to non-growing season daytime fluxes reported for C<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>3</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> and C<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>4</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> plant dominated ecosystems. The soil was a small COS source (0.3 pmol m<sup>−2</sup> s<sup>−1</sup>), with highest emissions under high radiation and temperature conditions. Using random forest modeling, we found that vapor pressure deficit, air temperature and soil water content were the most important drivers of nighttime ecosystem COS exchange (variable importance 0.25, 0.23 and 0.20, respectively), indicating the importance of stomatal limitation for COS fluxes. During daytime, air temperature, photosynthetically active radiation and soil temperature were the most important drivers (variable importances 0.19, 0.18 and 0.18, respectively). COS fluxes were further used to track canopy stomatal conductance and transpiration and compared to another transpiration estimate from the conditional eddy covariance method, which is based on raw water vapor and vertical wind data from eddy covariance. Conductance values ranged from 0.03 ± 0.06 mol m<sup>−2</sup> s<sup>−1</sup> during daytime to 0.06 ± 0.02 mol m<sup>−2</sup> s<sup>−1</sup> during nighttime. Transpiration was thus higher during nighttime than during daytime, reflecting the CAM gas exchange strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"378 ","pages":"Article 110966"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145731130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}