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A deep learning methodology for rapid identification of slab damage in concrete face rockfill dams 面板堆石坝面板损伤快速识别的深度学习方法
IF 9.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1111/mice.70110
Jianghan Xue, Pengtao Zhang, Junru Li, Xiang Lu, Zefa Li, Yanling Li, Jiankang Chen, Chufeng Kuang

Accurate identification of slab conditions is critical for ensuring the seepage safety of concrete face rockfill dams (CFRDs). However, existing methods for monitoring slab damage are limited and inconvenient. There is an urgent need to utilize available monitoring data to rapidly and accurately assess the condition of slab damage, and to implement responsive decision-making and early warning measures to prevent dam failure. To address this issue, this study proposes a deep learning (DL) methodology for the rapid identification of slab damage. A multi-objective optimization algorithm, Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm ll (NSGA-II), is employed to carry out inversion analysis and obtain the actual permeability coefficients, which are then used as inputs in numerical seepage simulations of dam behavior after slab damage. Based on the simulation results, a DL model is constructed to establish an accurate mapping relationship between the information of slab damage and the corresponding monitoring data. Given that current DL models often fail to explicitly and effectively capture the importance of features across sequences—leading to redundancy, reduced accuracy, and poor interpretability, a hierarchical optimization structure based on multi-head attention mechanisms is proposed. Specifically, two multi-head attention modules controlling input weights are innovatively integrated into both the input and hidden layers of the DL model, forming a dual multi-head attention enhanced (DMAE) architecture. This structure can be embedded within basic DL models for training and prediction. A case study of the cracked Sanbanxi CFRD project shows that the DMAE-Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) model outperforms other DL models in terms of prediction accuracy and robustness, suggesting it is the most suitable for the identification and prediction of slab damage. Furthermore, the visualization of input attention weights reveals that the key factors in identifying slab damage and should be prioritized in future seepage pressure monitoring. This study fills a critical gap in the field of slab damage identification, provides both technical support and theoretical foundations for intelligent diagnosis and interpretability analysis of slab damage in CFRDs.

面板状态的准确识别是保证面板堆石坝渗流安全的关键。然而,现有的监测板损伤的方法是有限的和不方便的。目前迫切需要利用现有的监测数据来快速、准确地评估坝体损伤状况,并实施响应性决策和早期预警措施,以防止大坝溃坝。为了解决这一问题,本研究提出了一种用于快速识别板损伤的深度学习(DL)方法。采用非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA‐II)进行反演分析,得到实际渗透系数,并将其作为坝体损伤后渗流数值模拟的输入。在此基础上,建立了深度分解模型,建立了板损伤信息与相应监测数据之间的精确映射关系。鉴于目前的深度学习模型经常不能明确有效地捕获跨序列特征的重要性,导致冗余、准确性降低和可解释性差,提出了一种基于多头注意机制的分层优化结构。具体来说,两个控制输入权重的多头注意模块被创新地集成到深度学习模型的输入层和隐藏层中,形成了双多头注意增强(DMAE)架构。这种结构可以嵌入到基本的深度学习模型中,用于训练和预测。结果表明,DMAE -双向长短期记忆(BiLSTM)模型在预测精度和鲁棒性方面优于其他深度学习模型,最适合于板损伤的识别和预测。此外,输入注意权值的可视化揭示了识别板损伤的关键因素,在今后的渗流压力监测中应优先考虑这些因素。该研究填补了目前板损伤识别领域的重要空白,为混凝土混凝土地基板损伤智能诊断和可解释性分析提供了技术支持和理论基础。
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引用次数: 0
An integrated spatiotemporal trust and consensus fusion framework for dam safety assessment with multi-sensor anomaly detection 基于多传感器异常检测的大坝安全评估时空信任与共识融合框架
IF 9.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1111/mice.70112
Xiaosong Shu, HaiBo Yang, Fan Wu, Yuhang Zhou, Peng Xu, Xinyi Liu, Jinjun Guo, Yingchun Cai, Jinyu Fan

Multiple sensors are strategically deployed within concrete dams to monitor structural behavior under intricate environmental conditions. The diverse monitoring parameters, spatial configurations, and temporal variations across these sensors often engender performance conflicts. It is different to obtain the comprehensive dam safety status under the intricate relations and behavior conflicts. To solve the problem, the proposed model integrates anomaly detection, trust propagation, consensus measurement, and information fusion for dam safety assessment. The multi-expert variational autoencoder facilitates anomaly score computations. The social trust network delineates spatiotemporal relationships among sensors. The consensus measurement mitigates information conflicts for data integration using the interval-valued fusion strategy. Empirical validation through a case study involving an arch dam underscores the model's efficacy in identifying anomalies. Through the results analysis, the spatial relationships exhibit divergent attributes in response to changes in water levels. It indicates that the spatial relations are necessary factors in the dam safety assessment.

多个传感器战略性地部署在混凝土大坝内,以监测复杂环境条件下的结构行为。这些传感器之间不同的监控参数、空间配置和时间变化常常会产生性能冲突。在错综复杂的关系和行为冲突下,很难获得大坝的综合安全状态。为了解决这一问题,该模型将异常检测、信任传播、共识度量和信息融合集成到大坝安全评估中。多专家变分自编码器促进异常分数计算。社会信任网络描述了传感器之间的时空关系。共识度量利用区间值融合策略缓解了数据集成中的信息冲突。通过涉及拱坝的案例研究的经验验证强调了该模型在识别异常方面的有效性。结果表明,随着水位的变化,空间关系呈现出不同的属性。表明空间关系是大坝安全评价的必要因素。
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引用次数: 0
Computer vision-based real-time cable safety assessment under vehicle-induced bridge fires 车辆引起的桥梁火灾下基于计算机视觉的实时电缆安全评估
IF 9.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1111/mice.70108
Jinglun Li, Binyang Wang, Xiaoyi Zhou, Raffaele Cucuzza, Kang Gao, Xiang Yun

Vehicle-induced fires present a critical risk to cable-supported bridges, where the integrity of cable components is especially vulnerable. However, conventional monitoring solutions face significant limitations: infrared cameras are often economically prohibitive, and standard smoke detectors are ineffective in open bridge environments. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a multi-stage computer vision framework that utilizes existing visual surveillance infrastructure for real-time fire detection and preliminary cable safety assessment. The proposed system integrates a you only look once v11-m model for accurate vehicle detection, a BoT-SORT tracker with re-identification (Re-ID) capabilities to maintain target consistency through visual obstructions such as smoke, and a ResNet-50 classifier for vehicle-centric fire identification. The framework's novelty lies in the demonstrated synergistic operation of these components across various scenarios, particularly under actual fire conditions. The integration of the Re-ID module proves essential for eliminating false alarms by preserving target identity, while the vehicle-centric approach directly associates fire events with specific vehicles and their tracking identifiers. This linkage provides the fundamental basis for real-time safety evaluation of adjacent cables. Consequently, the framework establishes a cost-effective, readily deployable, and scalable solution for bridge monitoring, offering management authorities a practical tool for immediate fire detection and instant structural assessment.

车辆引发的火灾对电缆支撑的桥梁来说是一个严重的风险,因为电缆组件的完整性特别脆弱。然而,传统的监控解决方案面临着重大的局限性:红外摄像机通常在经济上令人望而却步,标准的烟雾探测器在开放的桥梁环境中是无效的。为了应对这些挑战,本文提出了一种多阶段计算机视觉框架,该框架利用现有的视觉监控基础设施进行实时火灾探测和初步电缆安全评估。该系统集成了一个用于精确车辆检测的“只看一次”v11 - m模型,一个具有重新识别(re - ID)功能的BoT - SORT跟踪器,通过烟雾等视觉障碍物保持目标一致性,以及一个用于车辆中心火灾识别的ResNet - 50分类器。该框架的新颖性在于演示了这些组件在各种场景下的协同操作,特别是在实际火灾条件下。Re - ID模块的集成证明了通过保留目标身份来消除假警报的必要性,而以车辆为中心的方法直接将火灾事件与特定车辆及其跟踪标识符联系起来。这种联动为相邻电缆的实时安全评估提供了基础。因此,该框架为桥梁监测建立了一个具有成本效益、易于部署和可扩展的解决方案,为管理当局提供了一个实用的工具,用于即时火灾探测和即时结构评估。
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引用次数: 0
Proactive framework for evaluating retrieval-augmented generation-based learning assistants in engineering education 评估工程教育中检索增强世代学习助手的主动框架
IF 9.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1111/mice.70063
Linxin Hua, Lirui Guo, Nan Zheng, Ye Lu, Jia Xu, Jianghua Deng

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) enabled learning assistants are promising for engineering education, given their capability to supplement domain-specific knowledge and enhance student support. However, it is also a known problem that RAG demands adequate knowledge bases and can experience unreliable retrieval generation alignment. This study proposes a proactive evaluation framework for RAG-based learning assistants, eliminating the need for student feedback in system evaluation. The framework is demonstrated using a Civil Engineering education tool, CivASK. The evaluation framework identifies the deficiencies in CivASK, including database gap, contextual misunderstanding, and incomplete retrievals, based on the performances under simulated student inquiries, automated retrieval ranking, and expert-validated evaluations. Specifically, 742 student queries are analyzed, and 374 test questions are generated for assessment, showing the practical utility of the proposed evaluation framework for real-world education assist development. The application of the proposed framework is transferable to assist other engineering courses as well.

支持检索增强生成(RAG)的学习助手对于工程教育很有希望,因为它们能够补充特定领域的知识并增强学生的支持。然而,RAG需要足够的知识库并且可能经历不可靠的检索生成对齐也是一个已知的问题。本研究提出了一个基于rag的学习助手的主动评估框架,消除了系统评估中对学生反馈的需要。该框架使用土木工程教育工具CivASK进行演示。基于模拟学生查询、自动检索排名和专家验证评估的表现,评估框架确定了CivASK的缺陷,包括数据库缺口、上下文误解和检索不完整。具体来说,分析了742个学生查询,并生成了374个测试问题用于评估,显示了建议的评估框架在现实世界的教育辅助发展中的实际效用。所建议的框架的应用也可转移到其他工程课程中。
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引用次数: 0
Refined segmentation of high-resolution bridge crack images via probability map-guided point rendering technique 通过概率图引导点渲染技术对高分辨率桥梁裂缝图像进行精细分割
IF 9.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1111/mice.70088
Honghu Chu, Weiwei Chen, Lu Deng

High-resolution (HR) imaging technology is increasingly employed to capture crack images in civil infrastructure, which is vital for ensuring the safety of the bridge inspection process conducted via unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Such applications require the development of advanced algorithms for the segmentation of HR images. Traditional deep learning-based segmentation methods for inferencing HR images consume considerable GPU resources, which prompts the authors to draw inspiration from the cost-effective rendering technique in computer graphics and try to apply this advanced method to the refined segmentation of HR crack images. However, the original rendering method, designed to guide rendering points by the coarse segmentation masks, often inadequately directs rendering points towards the crucial boundary areas of tiny cracks, leading to unclear or missing boundary predictions. To address this, an innovative rendering technique was proposed, utilizing probability maps to precisely direct rendering points towards crack boundaries and tiny-crack branches during inference. This method enhances the accuracy of crack boundary segmentation and reduces the miss rate of tiny crack branches from HR images, all while conserving computational resources. Through model parameter experiments and ablation studies, the optimal model was obtained, and the effectiveness of the improved components was demonstrated. Furthermore, the field test has confirmed that, equipped with the proposed point rendering technique, the UAV is permitted to effectively perform crack inspection within a 3-m distance from the main beam. Compared to traditional low-resolution semantic segmentation methods, the UAV bridge inspection time is significantly reduced by 50% while maintaining the same accuracy.

高分辨率(HR)成像技术越来越多地用于捕获民用基础设施的裂缝图像,这对于确保通过无人机(uav)进行的桥梁检查过程的安全性至关重要。这样的应用需要开发用于HR图像分割的高级算法。传统的基于深度学习的HR图像分割方法消耗了大量的GPU资源,这促使作者从计算机图形学中经济高效的渲染技术中汲取灵感,并尝试将这种先进的方法应用于HR裂缝图像的精细分割。然而,原始的渲染方法是通过粗分割掩模来引导渲染点,往往不能充分地将渲染点指向微小裂纹的关键边界区域,导致边界预测不清楚或缺失。为了解决这个问题,提出了一种创新的渲染技术,利用概率图在推理过程中精确地将渲染点指向裂缝边界和微小裂缝分支。该方法提高了裂纹边界分割的精度,降低了HR图像中细小裂纹分支的缺失率,同时节约了计算资源。通过模型参数实验和烧蚀研究,得到了最优模型,并验证了改进部件的有效性。此外,现场测试已经证实,配备了所提出的点渲染技术,无人机可以在距离主梁3米的距离内有效地进行裂缝检查。与传统的低分辨率语义分割方法相比,在保持相同精度的情况下,无人机桥梁检测时间显著减少了50%。
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引用次数: 0
Efficient bridge damage detection using a lightweight attention-based modeling framework 高效桥梁损伤检测使用轻量级的基于注意力的建模框架
IF 9.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1111/mice.70098
Junjie Huang, Yongzhuo Zhu, Mingfu Xiong, Javier Del Ser, Aziz Alotaibi, João Paulo Papa, Khan Muhammad

Currently, real-time assessment of surface damage to bridges is crucial for ensuring infrastructure safety. Unfortunately, existing methods often present a challenge: overly complex computational models are incompatible with systems that have limited resources, while lightweight models struggle to achieve sufficient detection accuracy. This task is further complicated by the diverse nature of bridge damages, such as cracks, exposed reinforcement, and efflorescence, as well as the challenges of data acquisition under varied conditions from sources like unmanned aerial vehicles and specialized datasets. This work presents an efficient framework developed to improve such applications. The Lightweight Feature Enhancement and Triplet Attention Network for Bridge Damage Detection includes: (1) a multi-scale feature learning module, (2) a slim-neck-based optimized feature pyramid integration module, and (3) a triplet attention-based damage detector module; (1) extracts multi-scale representations of bridge surface features, (2) enhances multi-scale feature integration for lightweight computation, while maintaining accuracy, and (3) optimizes the framework with a three-branch structure for cross-latitude interaction, reducing the importance of irrelevant features. Extensive experiments on the MCDS and CODEBRIM datasets demonstrated its advantages: a 5.6%$5.6%$ increase in Mean Average Precision, a 13.6%$13.6%$ computational load reduction, and a 45 frames per second real-time performance. The model's computational complexity scales linearly with the input instances processed per unit time during inference.

目前,桥梁表面损伤的实时评估对于确保基础设施安全至关重要。不幸的是,现有的方法经常提出一个挑战:过于复杂的计算模型与资源有限的系统不兼容,而轻量级模型难以达到足够的检测精度。由于桥梁损伤的不同性质,如裂缝、暴露的钢筋和风化,以及在不同条件下从无人机和专业数据集等来源获取数据的挑战,这项任务变得更加复杂。这项工作提出了一个有效的框架来改进这种应用。桥梁损伤检测的轻量化特征增强和三重关注网络包括:(1)多尺度特征学习模块;(2)基于细颈的优化特征金字塔集成模块;(3)基于三重关注的损伤检测模块;(1)提取桥梁表面特征的多尺度表示;(2)增强轻量级计算的多尺度特征集成,同时保持准确性;(3)使用三分支结构优化框架以进行跨纬度交互,降低无关特征的重要性。在MCDS和CODEBRIM数据集上进行的大量实验证明了它的优点:平均精度增加,计算负载减少,每秒45帧的实时性能。该模型的计算复杂度与推理过程中单位时间内处理的输入实例呈线性关系。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of road network vulnerability using multilayer perceptron surrogates with automated closure propagation 基于自动封闭传播多层感知器的道路网络脆弱性评估
IF 9.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1111/mice.70105
Abdel Rahman Marian, Mohammad Zaher Serdar, Eyad Masad

Road networks face increasing disruptions, yet vulnerability assessment methods either oversimplify traffic dynamics or require extensive computational simulations. This research introduces a novel approach integrating traffic simulation, graph theory, and machine learning for efficient and accurate vulnerability assessment. Analysis across numerous disruption scenarios showed that static weighting is inadequate for capturing traffic redistribution effects. In contrast, dynamic weighting aligns strongly with simulation results but was computationally infeasible. To overcome this limitation, a specialized multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed with a dual-pathway architecture and a novel automated closure propagation algorithm, separating static network attributes from spatial relationships. This surrogate model generates predictions significantly faster than traffic simulations, enabling comprehensive vulnerability analyses, previously deemed impractical. Testing across diverse disruption scales demonstrated surrogate effectiveness and limitations. This research presents a transferable and scalable methodology for constructing simulation-informed ANN surrogate models, providing practical deployment guidance for informed resilient transportation network planning.

道路网络面临越来越多的中断,但脆弱性评估方法要么过于简化交通动态,要么需要大量的计算模拟。本研究提出了一种整合交通模拟、图论和机器学习的新方法,用于高效、准确的脆弱性评估。对众多中断情景的分析表明,静态加权不足以捕捉交通再分配效应。相比之下,动态加权与仿真结果非常吻合,但在计算上不可行。为了克服这一限制,开发了一个专门的多层感知器人工神经网络(ANN)模型,该模型具有双路径架构和一种新的自动闭包传播算法,将静态网络属性从空间关系中分离出来。这个代理模型产生预测的速度比交通模拟快得多,能够进行全面的漏洞分析,而这在以前被认为是不切实际的。在不同的干扰尺度上的测试证明了替代的有效性和局限性。本研究提出了一种可转移和可扩展的方法来构建仿真信息人工神经网络代理模型,为知情弹性交通网络规划提供实用的部署指导。
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引用次数: 0
Machine learning-based analysis of interaction effects among influencing factors on the resilient modulus of stabilized aggregate base 基于机器学习的稳定集料基层弹性模量影响因素交互作用分析
IF 9.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1111/mice.70102
Meng Guo, Mengmeng Zhou, Xiuli Du, Pengfei Liu

To overcome the limitations of conventional single-factor analysis, this study proposed a framework for investigating interaction effects of influencing factors on the resilient modulus (Mr) of stabilized aggregate base. First, cross-validation was utilized to compare the predictive accuracy and generalization capability of gradient boosting (GB) and random forest (RF) in predicting the Mr. The grid search algorithm was used to optimize hyperparameters. After optimization, the coefficient of determination for GB reached 0.99 on the training set and 0.96 on the test set, while those for RF were 0.98 and 0.94, respectively. The results indicated that GB demonstrated higher predictive accuracy for the Mr. Finally, the importance analysis, univariate sensitivity analysis, and bivariate interaction sensitivity analysis of influencing factors were systematically conducted using partial dependence plots (PDP) and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP). The research results showed that the importance of influencing factors on the Mr decreases in the order of maximum dry density to optimum moisture content ratio, wet–dry cycles (WDC), deviator stress, confining pressure, and ratio of oxide compounds in the cementitious materials. The bivariate interaction sensitivity analysis of the WDC, deviator stress, confining pressure, and ratio of oxide compounds in the cementitious materials did not disrupt their single-variable sensitivity relationships with the Mr. The variation of the WDC would destroy the single variable sensitivity relationship between the optimum moisture content ratio and Mr.

为了克服传统单因素分析的局限性,本研究提出了一个框架来研究影响因素对稳定骨料基层弹性模量(Mr)的相互作用。首先,通过交叉验证比较梯度增强(GB)和随机森林(RF)预测mr的预测精度和泛化能力,并采用网格搜索算法对超参数进行优化。优化后,GB在训练集和测试集上的决定系数分别为0.99和0.96,RF的决定系数分别为0.98和0.94。结果表明,GB对mr具有较高的预测精度。最后,采用偏相关图(PDP)和Shapley加性解释(SHAP)对影响因素进行重要性分析、单因素敏感性分析和双因素交互敏感性分析。研究结果表明:影响Mr的因素的重要性依次为最大干密度与最佳含水率比、干湿循环次数(WDC)、偏应力、围压、胶凝材料中氧化物比。胶结材料中WDC、偏应力、围压和氧化物比的二元相互作用敏感性分析没有破坏它们与Mr的单变量敏感性关系,但WDC的变化会破坏最佳含水率与Mr的单变量敏感性关系。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-fidelity data meta-learning approach for seismic response prediction of high-rise shear wall buildings 高层剪力墙建筑地震反应预测的多保真度数据元学习方法
IF 9.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1111/mice.70103
Chenyu Zhang, Changhai Zhai, Weiping Wen, Guoqing Zhang

Rapid and accurate estimation of seismic responses in city-scale buildings is critical for post-earthquake loss assessment and pre-event identification of vulnerable buildings. However, conventional numerical simulation methods struggle to balance efficiency and accuracy when applied to large-scale buildings, while existing data-driven methods often rely on single-source datasets, limiting generalizability. Numerical simulation data of varying detail (e.g., floor- and component-based models) and field monitoring data form inherently multi-fidelity datasets, but integrating these heterogeneous sources remains challenging, particularly when different fidelities correspond to different building targets. To address this gap, we propose a multi-fidelity meta-learning algorithm that extends deep learning methods for seismic response prediction, demonstrated on multiple high-rise shear wall buildings. The proposed algorithm enables incremental data learning and model updates and is applied and validated across datasets of varying fidelities, including multiple numerical simulations and field monitoring data. Under small-sample field monitoring scenarios, the proposed method reduces overall prediction errors by 40.4%, compared to the typical transfer learning approach, demonstrating superior learning capabilities in limited-data settings. Additionally, to account for inaccuracies and potential noise in acquired structural information inputs under real-world conditions, the meta-learning model was trained and evaluated with varying levels of noise based on field monitoring data. Results indicate that the proposed meta-learning algorithm exhibits strong robustness when handling noisy inputs.

快速准确地估计城市规模建筑物的地震反应对于地震后损失评估和易损建筑物的事前识别至关重要。然而,传统的数值模拟方法在应用于大型建筑物时难以平衡效率和准确性,而现有的数据驱动方法通常依赖于单一来源的数据集,限制了通用性。不同细节的数值模拟数据(例如,基于地板和组件的模型)和现场监测数据形成了固有的多保真度数据集,但整合这些异构源仍然具有挑战性,特别是当不同保真度对应于不同的建筑目标时。为了解决这一差距,我们提出了一种多保真元学习算法,该算法扩展了地震响应预测的深度学习方法,并在多个高层剪力墙建筑上进行了演示。所提出的算法可以实现增量数据学习和模型更新,并在不同保真度的数据集(包括多个数值模拟和现场监测数据)上进行应用和验证。在小样本现场监测场景下,与典型的迁移学习方法相比,该方法的总体预测误差降低了40.4%,在有限数据环境下显示出优越的学习能力。此外,为了考虑在现实条件下获得的结构信息输入中的不准确性和潜在噪声,元学习模型在基于现场监测数据的不同噪声水平下进行了训练和评估。结果表明,所提出的元学习算法在处理噪声输入时表现出较强的鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 0
Probabilistic risk assessment framework for cost overruns predictions in infrastructure projects using randomized simulations 基于随机模拟的基础设施项目成本超支预测概率风险评估框架
IF 9.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1111/mice.70100
Rubina Canesi, Laura Gabrielli, Giuliano Marella, Aurora Greta Ruggeri

This paper introduces PRIMoS (Probabilistic Risk matrix Integration with MOnte carlo Simulation), an advanced computational framework that enhances cost overrun risk assessment and uncertainty quantification in infrastructure project management. PRIMoS is an innovative Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation framework integrated with a probabilistic risk matrix, providing comprehensive cost risk analysis. The proposed framework simultaneously addresses both cost uncertainties and time uncertainties, the latter through discount rate assessment, extending beyond traditional cost-focused approaches. PRIMoS employs a novel method to define risk magnitude (RM) levels for all project components, enabling adaptive probability distributions for Monte Carlo inputs. This approach allows for the capture of specific cost-related interdependencies and evolving risk patterns within the financial aspects of the project lifecycle. The framework's efficacy was demonstrated through application to a large infrastructure project, showcasing its ability to provide more accurate and detailed cost overrun forecasts compared to conventional methods. The proposed model improved cost estimation accuracy by predicting an increase in contingencies, thereby reducing the estimation error to less than 5%. PRIMoS offers a powerful tool for proactive risk management and informed decision-making in large-scale infrastructure development.

本文介绍了概率风险矩阵集成与蒙特卡罗模拟(Probabilistic Risk matrix Integration with MOnte carlo Simulation),这是一种先进的计算框架,可增强基础设施项目管理中成本超支风险评估和不确定性量化。PRIMoS是一种创新的贝叶斯蒙特卡罗模拟框架,集成了概率风险矩阵,提供全面的成本风险分析。拟议的框架同时处理成本不确定性和时间不确定性,后者通过贴现率评估,超越了传统的以成本为重点的方法。PRIMoS采用一种新颖的方法来定义所有项目组件的风险大小(RM)水平,使蒙特卡罗输入的概率分布能够自适应。这种方法允许在项目生命周期的财务方面捕获特定的与成本相关的相互依赖关系和不断发展的风险模式。通过在大型基础设施项目中的应用,证明了该框架的有效性,与传统方法相比,它能够提供更准确、更详细的成本超支预测。该模型通过预测或有事件的增加,提高了成本估计的准确性,从而将估计误差降低到5%以下。PRIMoS为大规模基础设施开发中的前瞻性风险管理和知情决策提供了强大的工具。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering
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