Pub Date : 2024-10-18DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110595
Zhiting Song , Jianhua Zhu , Kun Chen
Complex and changing environments often cause resource failures in smart manufacturing systems (SMSs), significantly affecting their robustness. This paper introduces a novel methodology to assess the robustness of SMSs facing resource failures, using a complex network approach. It divides SMSs into social and technical layers, analyzes resources and relationships within and between these layers, and establishes a two-layered network model. It also categorizes various types of failures and proposes three robustness metrics to evaluate system performance at individual, local, and global levels. Simulations visually demonstrate the methodology and key findings: (1) the robust-but-fragile trait of SMSs only reacts to node failures and keeps significant in terms of the gradient of robustness; (2) there exists no edge failure that keeps damaging system robustness to the maximal or minimal degrees, and edge failures cause less damage to system robustness than node failures; (3) when failures occur, SMS robustness at all levels changes with inconsistent paces, and the optimal link mode varies by network structures and failure strategies. Finally, managerial implications are presented to guide practical robustness control at different stages of SMS lifecycles.
{"title":"Robustness analysis of smart manufacturing systems against resource failures: A two-layered network perspective","authors":"Zhiting Song , Jianhua Zhu , Kun Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110595","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110595","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Complex and changing environments often cause resource failures in smart manufacturing systems (SMSs), significantly affecting their robustness. This paper introduces a novel methodology to assess the robustness of SMSs facing resource failures, using a complex network approach. It divides SMSs into social and technical layers, analyzes resources and relationships within and between these layers, and establishes a two-layered network model. It also categorizes various types of failures and proposes three robustness metrics to evaluate system performance at individual, local, and global levels. Simulations visually demonstrate the methodology and key findings: (1) the robust-but-fragile trait of SMSs only reacts to node failures and keeps significant in terms of the gradient of robustness; (2) there exists no edge failure that keeps damaging system robustness to the maximal or minimal degrees, and edge failures cause less damage to system robustness than node failures; (3) when failures occur, SMS robustness at all levels changes with inconsistent paces, and the optimal link mode varies by network structures and failure strategies. Finally, managerial implications are presented to guide practical robustness control at different stages of SMS lifecycles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"253 ","pages":"Article 110595"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142530261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-17DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110582
Xiuwen Fu , Dingyi Zheng , Xiangwei Liu , Liudong Xing , Rui Peng
Under the influence of cascading failures, the failure of a small number of nodes or components may lead to the paralysis of the entire network system. Cascading failures have become one of the major bottlenecks constraining the long-term reliable operation of Internet of Things (IoT) systems, thus attracting extensive attention from researchers. To better understand the complex mechanisms of IoT cascading failures, diverse models and methods have been proposed. This paper systematically reviews the current research status of cascading failures in IoT, covering various aspects such as network objects, performance metrics, failure states, modeling methods, and network optimization. Additionally, we discuss the limitations in current research on cascading failures in IoT and point out the future research directions.
{"title":"Systematic review and future perspectives on cascading failures in Internet of Things: Modeling and optimization","authors":"Xiuwen Fu , Dingyi Zheng , Xiangwei Liu , Liudong Xing , Rui Peng","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110582","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110582","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Under the influence of cascading failures, the failure of a small number of nodes or components may lead to the paralysis of the entire network system. Cascading failures have become one of the major bottlenecks constraining the long-term reliable operation of Internet of Things (IoT) systems, thus attracting extensive attention from researchers. To better understand the complex mechanisms of IoT cascading failures, diverse models and methods have been proposed. This paper systematically reviews the current research status of cascading failures in IoT, covering various aspects such as network objects, performance metrics, failure states, modeling methods, and network optimization. Additionally, we discuss the limitations in current research on cascading failures in IoT and point out the future research directions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 110582"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-17DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110541
Mandana Azarkhil , Ali Mosleh , Marilia Ramos
Operation of highly complex systems such as Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) generally require highly trained professional operating teams. Factors associated with teamwork, such as ineffective communication and coordination, can be important contributing factors to accidents and unsafe behavior. The impact of crew interactions on team effectiveness and, consequently, on the entire system, has not been fully and quantitatively explored in high-risk environments such as NPPs. Since a team is an interactive social system, team-specific issues must be studied and evaluated from a “team perspective”—based on team dynamics and processes. This paper is part of a two-papers series that presents a simulation-based Team Model for NPP control room operations. The current paper, Part 1, describes the theoretical fundaments of the model and details its elements. The accompanying paper describes the simulation aspects, and a full application of the method to a pipe break accident in a four- four-loop steam generator feedwater system. The proposed model is based on the IDAC (Information, Decision, and Action in Crew context) cognitive model framework. The resulting model, Team-centered IDAC (Tc-IDAC), examines the team activities “Collaborative information collection,” “Shared decision making,” and “Distributed action execution” through specific modules for Team Error Management. These modules include error detection, error indication and error correction, and team performance shaping factors.
{"title":"Team-centered IDAC: Modeling and simulation of operating crew in complex systems – Part 1: Team model and fundamentals","authors":"Mandana Azarkhil , Ali Mosleh , Marilia Ramos","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110541","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110541","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Operation of highly complex systems such as Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) generally require highly trained professional operating teams. Factors associated with teamwork, such as ineffective communication and coordination, can be important contributing factors to accidents and unsafe behavior. The impact of crew interactions on team effectiveness and, consequently, on the entire system, has not been fully and quantitatively explored in high-risk environments such as NPPs. Since a team is an interactive social system, team-specific issues must be studied and evaluated from a “team perspective”—based on team dynamics and processes. This paper is part of a two-papers series that presents a simulation-based Team Model for NPP control room operations. The current paper, Part 1, describes the theoretical fundaments of the model and details its elements. The accompanying paper describes the simulation aspects, and a full application of the method to a pipe break accident in a four- four-loop steam generator feedwater system. The proposed model is based on the IDAC (Information, Decision, and Action in Crew context) cognitive model framework. The resulting model, Team-centered IDAC (Tc-IDAC), examines the team activities “Collaborative information collection,” “Shared decision making,” and “Distributed action execution” through specific modules for Team Error Management. These modules include error detection, error indication and error correction, and team performance shaping factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 110541"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142540143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-16DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110591
Zhongyi Sui, Shuaian Wang
Enhancing Situation Awareness (SA) is crucial for maritime traffic safety. Various indicators have been developed to assess risks in encounter situations and support the SA of Vessel Traffic Service Operators (VTSOs) and Officers on Watch (OOW), including collision risk and traffic complexity. Despite the widespread use of these navigational aids, ship collision incidents have not been effectively reduced. This paper abstracts ship encounter situations as linear dynamic systems to enhance the understanding of traffic situations. A traffic advisory framework based on the Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREGs) is proposed by integrating complexity metrics with risk indicators. The proposed method is validated through simulations of head-on, overtaking, and crossing scenarios, demonstrating its ability to accurately assess encounter complexity and issue advisories for free navigation, complexity, and resolution. Finally, we discuss the practical application of the proposed method through real-world experiments conducted in the waters of Qiongzhou Strait. The results indicate that the proposed method effectively quantifies the complexity of ship encounter situations and identifies high-collision-risk vessels from a microscopic perspective while providing insights into maritime traffic surveillance from a macro perspective.
{"title":"Traffic advisory for ship encounter situation based on linear dynamic system","authors":"Zhongyi Sui, Shuaian Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110591","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110591","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Enhancing Situation Awareness (SA) is crucial for maritime traffic safety. Various indicators have been developed to assess risks in encounter situations and support the SA of Vessel Traffic Service Operators (VTSOs) and Officers on Watch (OOW), including collision risk and traffic complexity. Despite the widespread use of these navigational aids, ship collision incidents have not been effectively reduced. This paper abstracts ship encounter situations as linear dynamic systems to enhance the understanding of traffic situations. A traffic advisory framework based on the Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREGs) is proposed by integrating complexity metrics with risk indicators. The proposed method is validated through simulations of head-on, overtaking, and crossing scenarios, demonstrating its ability to accurately assess encounter complexity and issue advisories for free navigation, complexity, and resolution. Finally, we discuss the practical application of the proposed method through real-world experiments conducted in the waters of Qiongzhou Strait. The results indicate that the proposed method effectively quantifies the complexity of ship encounter situations and identifies high-collision-risk vessels from a microscopic perspective while providing insights into maritime traffic surveillance from a macro perspective.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"253 ","pages":"Article 110591"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142530330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-15DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110556
You Keshun , Wang Puzhou , Huang Peng , Gu Yingkui
Although current deep learning models for bearing fault diagnosis have achieved excellent accuracy, the lack of constraint-guided learning of the physical mechanisms of real bearing failures and a physically scientific training paradigm leads to low interpretability and unreliability of intelligent fault diagnosis models. In this study, a sound-vibration physical-information fusion constraint-guided (PFCG) deep learning (DL) method is proposed, aiming at weighted fusion of sound and vibration multi-physical information into a deep learning model, to guide the DL model to learn more realistic physical laws of bearing failure. Firstly, a 15-degree-of-freedom nonlinear dynamics model of multi-stage degraded bearing failure mechanism with sound-vibration response is developed, which considers the evolutionary mechanism of bearing failure from healthy state to different stages, and utilizes a particle filtering algorithm for dynamic calibration of hidden parameters. Moreover, a lightweight DL fault diagnosis model is designed to realize the deep interaction between the physical model and the DL model through the weighted fusion of the cross-entropy loss function, physical consistency loss and uncertainty loss. Moreover, the superior diagnostic performance of the proposed sound and vibration PFCG-DL model is verified by comparing the performance fluctuations and parameter attributes of different DL benchmark models before and after being guided by physical information fusion constraints (PFCG). Eventually, the proposed PFCG-Transformer model achieves a diagnostic accuracy of 99.45% while keeping the number of parameters at only 0.62M, which significantly improves the accuracy and reduces the computational complexity by 81.5% compared to the CAME-Transformer model's 3.24 M number of parameters and 95.00% diagnostic accuracy. In addition, the test time of PFCG-Transformer is reduced to 1.02 s, which is 60.2% less than CAME-Transformer, demonstrating higher computational efficiency and real-time performance. Importantly, in terms of interpretability, the engineering interpretability and credibility of the models are further improved by visualizing the feature learning results of the vibration modal and multimodal fusion models and the sensitivity analyses of the sound-vibration response models with internal and external physical hyperparameters. Therefore, this study proposes a physical information-guided deep learning method with strong interpretability and superior performance, which provides an important reference for further research and application in the field of bearing fault diagnosis.
{"title":"A sound-vibration physical-information fusion constraint-guided deep learning method for rolling bearing fault diagnosis","authors":"You Keshun , Wang Puzhou , Huang Peng , Gu Yingkui","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110556","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110556","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although current deep learning models for bearing fault diagnosis have achieved excellent accuracy, the lack of constraint-guided learning of the physical mechanisms of real bearing failures and a physically scientific training paradigm leads to low interpretability and unreliability of intelligent fault diagnosis models. In this study, a sound-vibration physical-information fusion constraint-guided (PFCG) deep learning (DL) method is proposed, aiming at weighted fusion of sound and vibration multi-physical information into a deep learning model, to guide the DL model to learn more realistic physical laws of bearing failure. Firstly, a 15-degree-of-freedom nonlinear dynamics model of multi-stage degraded bearing failure mechanism with sound-vibration response is developed, which considers the evolutionary mechanism of bearing failure from healthy state to different stages, and utilizes a particle filtering algorithm for dynamic calibration of hidden parameters. Moreover, a lightweight DL fault diagnosis model is designed to realize the deep interaction between the physical model and the DL model through the weighted fusion of the cross-entropy loss function, physical consistency loss and uncertainty loss. Moreover, the superior diagnostic performance of the proposed sound and vibration PFCG-DL model is verified by comparing the performance fluctuations and parameter attributes of different DL benchmark models before and after being guided by physical information fusion constraints (PFCG). Eventually, the proposed PFCG-Transformer model achieves a diagnostic accuracy of 99.45% while keeping the number of parameters at only 0.62M, which significantly improves the accuracy and reduces the computational complexity by 81.5% compared to the CAME-Transformer model's 3.24 M number of parameters and 95.00% diagnostic accuracy. In addition, the test time of PFCG-Transformer is reduced to 1.02 s, which is 60.2% less than CAME-Transformer, demonstrating higher computational efficiency and real-time performance. Importantly, in terms of interpretability, the engineering interpretability and credibility of the models are further improved by visualizing the feature learning results of the vibration modal and multimodal fusion models and the sensitivity analyses of the sound-vibration response models with internal and external physical hyperparameters. Therefore, this study proposes a physical information-guided deep learning method with strong interpretability and superior performance, which provides an important reference for further research and application in the field of bearing fault diagnosis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"253 ","pages":"Article 110556"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142530321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-15DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110590
Jingkui Li , Hanzheng Wang , Yunqi Tang , Zhandong Li , Xiuhong Jiang
The load-sharing system (LSS) with the common-cause failure (CCF) is widely used in industrial engineering applications. If a component in this system fails, the total load is shared by the other components, leading to an increased failure rate of the surviving components. The traditional GO-FLOW method is difficult to calculate the reliability of this system accurately. To address this issue, a new reliability analysis approach is proposed in this paper. In this approach, a new GO-FLOW operator is established to simulate the LSS with CCF. Firstly, the state transfer relationship between components in the LSS is identified. Secondly, the α-factor is used to establish the relationship between the independent failure rate λI and the CCF rate λC. Finally, the Markov method is employed to calculate the transient-state and steady-state reliability of the system, and the calculation process for the parallel system and k-out-of-n(F) system are given, respectively. The feasibility of the proposed method is illustrated through a numerical example of a distributed electric propulsion system. This approach extends the applicability of the GO-FLOW method.
{"title":"Reliability analysis of load-sharing system with the common-cause failure based on GO-FLOW method","authors":"Jingkui Li , Hanzheng Wang , Yunqi Tang , Zhandong Li , Xiuhong Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110590","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110590","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The load-sharing system (LSS) with the common-cause failure (CCF) is widely used in industrial engineering applications. If a component in this system fails, the total load is shared by the other components, leading to an increased failure rate of the surviving components. The traditional GO-FLOW method is difficult to calculate the reliability of this system accurately. To address this issue, a new reliability analysis approach is proposed in this paper. In this approach, a new GO-FLOW operator is established to simulate the LSS with CCF. Firstly, the state transfer relationship between components in the LSS is identified. Secondly, the <em>α</em>-factor is used to establish the relationship between the independent failure rate <em>λ<sub>I</sub></em> and the CCF rate <em>λ<sub>C</sub></em>. Finally, the Markov method is employed to calculate the transient-state and steady-state reliability of the system, and the calculation process for the parallel system and k-out-of-n(F) system are given, respectively. The feasibility of the proposed method is illustrated through a numerical example of a distributed electric propulsion system. This approach extends the applicability of the GO-FLOW method.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 110590"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-15DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110524
Xiang-Yu Li , He Li , Xiaoyan Xiong , Mingwei Li , Mohammad Yazdi , Esmaeil Zarei
Random phase durations and dynamic combined phases challenge the application of existing reliability models in the reliability analysis of multistate-phased mission systems (MS-PMSs). To this end, this paper presents a new reliability modeling method for multi-state phased mission systems with random phase durations and dynamic combined phases. Initially, a multi-state multi-valued decision diagram-based (MMDD-based) reliability modeling method is created to efficiently map random phase durations and the dynamic combined phase nature of MS-PMSs into the reliability model. To solve the MMDD-based reliability model, a path probability evaluation method is subsequently constructed with the assistance of the Markov regenerative function. The effectiveness and the superior performance of the proposed MMDD-based reliability model and its solving algorithm are validated by the application to the reliability modeling and analysis of an attitude and orbit control system with multiple modes. Overall, this paper provides the reliability sector with a new reliability model and its solving algorithm to enhance the reliability and safety of multi-state phased mission systems.
{"title":"Reliability modeling of multi-state phased mission systems with random phase durations and dynamic combined phases","authors":"Xiang-Yu Li , He Li , Xiaoyan Xiong , Mingwei Li , Mohammad Yazdi , Esmaeil Zarei","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110524","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110524","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Random phase durations and dynamic combined phases challenge the application of existing reliability models in the reliability analysis of multistate-phased mission systems (MS-PMSs). To this end, this paper presents a new reliability modeling method for multi-state phased mission systems with random phase durations and dynamic combined phases. Initially, a multi-state multi-valued decision diagram-based (MMDD-based) reliability modeling method is created to efficiently map random phase durations and the dynamic combined phase nature of MS-PMSs into the reliability model. To solve the MMDD-based reliability model, a path probability evaluation method is subsequently constructed with the assistance of the Markov regenerative function. The effectiveness and the superior performance of the proposed MMDD-based reliability model and its solving algorithm are validated by the application to the reliability modeling and analysis of an attitude and orbit control system with multiple modes. Overall, this paper provides the reliability sector with a new reliability model and its solving algorithm to enhance the reliability and safety of multi-state phased mission systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"253 ","pages":"Article 110524"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142530323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-12DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110544
Vladimir Ulansky , Ahmed Raza
This article offers an extensive historical review of condition-based maintenance (CBM) models, focusing on the impact of imperfect inspections. It examines the progression and development of CBM models that incorporate both constant and non-constant probabilities of inspection outcomes. The review encompasses early foundational work, significant theoretical advancements, and practical applications across diverse industries. It investigates how different assumptions about inspection accuracy and failure detection impact CBM cost, system availability and operational reliability. Moreover, the article highlights methodological innovations that address the challenges posed by imperfect inspections, such as probabilistic modeling and optimization techniques. This survey aims to provide a thorough understanding of the complexities in CBM modeling and offers insights for future research to improve maintenance decision-making under inspection uncertainty.
{"title":"A historical survey of condition-based maintenance models with imperfect inspections: Cases of constant and non-constant probabilities of inspection outcomes","authors":"Vladimir Ulansky , Ahmed Raza","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110544","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110544","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article offers an extensive historical review of condition-based maintenance (CBM) models, focusing on the impact of imperfect inspections. It examines the progression and development of CBM models that incorporate both constant and non-constant probabilities of inspection outcomes. The review encompasses early foundational work, significant theoretical advancements, and practical applications across diverse industries. It investigates how different assumptions about inspection accuracy and failure detection impact CBM cost, system availability and operational reliability. Moreover, the article highlights methodological innovations that address the challenges posed by imperfect inspections, such as probabilistic modeling and optimization techniques. This survey aims to provide a thorough understanding of the complexities in CBM modeling and offers insights for future research to improve maintenance decision-making under inspection uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 110544"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-12DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110588
Huangbin Liang, Qiang Xie
When an earthquake occurs, electrical equipment in a substation exhibits a certain level of seismic failure correlation since they suffer similar ground motions and share similar structural characteristics. However, this equipment-to-equipment seismic failure correlation (E2ESFC) was neglected in previous substation-level probabilistic seismic risk analyses due to the lack of awareness and practical approach. To investigate the effect of different degrees of the E2ESFC on the substation seismic risk, an efficient method for considering partially correlated seismic failure was proposed. The concepts of “damage demand probability” and “damage capacity probability” were derived from the equipment's fragility curve. Then the partial correlation of equipment's capacity probabilities can be easily introduced and incorporated into the substation-level risk analysis through the combination of Copula functions and the Monte Carlo simulation. A case study on a real-world 220/110 kV substation using an equi-correlation model demonstrated that ignoring the E2ESFC among the same type of equipment will lead to an underestimate of the probability of seeing high seismic loss. Furthermore, a general method to assess the E2ESFC coefficients between equipment was also proposed, laying the foundation to facilitate applications of the introduced E2ESFC simulation method and to generate a more reliable system risk assessment result.
{"title":"Probabilistic seismic risk analysis of electrical substations considering equipment-to-equipment seismic failure correlations","authors":"Huangbin Liang, Qiang Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110588","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110588","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When an earthquake occurs, electrical equipment in a substation exhibits a certain level of seismic failure correlation since they suffer similar ground motions and share similar structural characteristics. However, this equipment-to-equipment seismic failure correlation (E2ESFC) was neglected in previous substation-level probabilistic seismic risk analyses due to the lack of awareness and practical approach. To investigate the effect of different degrees of the E2ESFC on the substation seismic risk, an efficient method for considering partially correlated seismic failure was proposed. The concepts of “damage demand probability” and “damage capacity probability” were derived from the equipment's fragility curve. Then the partial correlation of equipment's capacity probabilities can be easily introduced and incorporated into the substation-level risk analysis through the combination of Copula functions and the Monte Carlo simulation. A case study on a real-world 220/110 kV substation using an equi-correlation model demonstrated that ignoring the E2ESFC among the same type of equipment will lead to an underestimate of the probability of seeing high seismic loss. Furthermore, a general method to assess the E2ESFC coefficients between equipment was also proposed, laying the foundation to facilitate applications of the introduced E2ESFC simulation method and to generate a more reliable system risk assessment result.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"253 ","pages":"Article 110588"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142446048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-12DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110587
Do-Eun Choe, Mahyar Ramezani
This study proposes a computational and mathematical framework aimed at assessing the reliability of structural components within Floating Offshore Wind Turbines (FOWT) that reflects the various sources of uncertainties coupled between structural analyses, hydrodynamics, and aerodynamics. The limit state functions are represented through structural capacity and environmental demand models for selected structural failure modes that incorporate fully coupled aero-hydro-servo-elastic analysis. The fragility surfaces are developed for a selected benchmark wind turbine for both operating and parking conditions. The fragilities are also estimated under 50-year and 100-year environmental conditions in the selected U.S. coastal regions. It is found that the wind speed variations largely affect the fragility during non-operation, while wave height variations are significant during operation. Increased uncertainties in environmental parameters raised failure probabilities, especially in lower fragility ranges targeted by design codes. Analyses in U.S. coastal environments show both parking and operating conditions can be critical, challenging the previous focus on parking. Sensitivity studies reveal that under mild conditions, structural reliability is influenced by moment of inertia and material strength, but as environmental loads increase, these parameters become equally significant. Increased uncertainties in parameters lead to higher failure risks, especially below 25 m/s wind speeds.
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