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Fair prediction of 2-year stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation. 对心房颤动患者 2 年中风风险的合理预测。
IF 4.7 2区 医学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocae170
Jifan Gao, Philip Mar, Zheng-Zheng Tang, Guanhua Chen

Objective: This study aims to develop machine learning models that provide both accurate and equitable predictions of 2-year stroke risk for patients with atrial fibrillation across diverse racial groups.

Materials and methods: Our study utilized structured electronic health records (EHR) data from the All of Us Research Program. Machine learning models (LightGBM) were utilized to capture the relations between stroke risks and the predictors used by the widely recognized CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores. We mitigated the racial disparity by creating a representative tuning set, customizing tuning criteria, and setting binary thresholds separately for subgroups. We constructed a hold-out test set that not only supports temporal validation but also includes a larger proportion of Black/African Americans for fairness validation.

Results: Compared to the original CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores, significant improvements were achieved by modeling their predictors using machine learning models (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve from near 0.70 to above 0.80). Furthermore, applying our disparity mitigation strategies can effectively enhance model fairness compared to the conventional cross-validation approach.

Discussion: Modeling CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors with LightGBM and our disparity mitigation strategies achieved decent discriminative performance and excellent fairness performance. In addition, this approach can provide a complete interpretation of each predictor. These highlight its potential utility in clinical practice.

Conclusions: Our research presents a practical example of addressing clinical challenges through the All of Us Research Program data. The disparity mitigation framework we proposed is adaptable across various models and data modalities, demonstrating broad potential in clinical informatics.

目的: 本研究旨在开发机器学习模型,以准确、公平地预测不同种族群体心房颤动患者的 2 年中风风险:本研究旨在开发机器学习模型,为不同种族群体的心房颤动患者提供准确、公平的 2 年中风风险预测:我们的研究利用了 "我们所有人研究计划 "的结构化电子健康记录(EHR)数据。我们利用机器学习模型(LightGBM)来捕捉中风风险与被广泛认可的 CHADS2 和 CHA2DS2-VASc 评分所使用的预测因子之间的关系。我们通过创建具有代表性的调整集、定制调整标准以及为亚组分别设置二进制阈值来减少种族差异。我们构建了一个暂不测试集,它不仅支持时间验证,还包括更大比例的黑人/非裔美国人,用于公平性验证:结果:与最初的 CHADS2 和 CHA2DS2-VASc 评分相比,通过使用机器学习模型对其预测因子进行建模,结果有了显著改善(接收者工作特征曲线下面积从接近 0.70 提高到 0.80 以上)。此外,与传统的交叉验证方法相比,采用我们的差异缓解策略可以有效提高模型的公平性:讨论:利用 LightGBM 和我们的差异缓解策略对 CHADS2 和 CHA2DS2-VASc 危险因素建模,取得了良好的判别性能和出色的公平性。此外,这种方法还能提供对每个预测因子的完整解释。这些都凸显了它在临床实践中的潜在用途:我们的研究提供了一个通过 "全民研究计划 "数据应对临床挑战的实例。我们提出的差异缓解框架可适用于各种模型和数据模式,展示了临床信息学的广泛潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Fantasy or reality? Unveiling the power of realistic narratives in tourism social media advertising 幻想还是现实?揭示旅游社交媒体广告中现实叙事的力量
IF 12.7 1区 管理学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2024.104998
Ali Selcuk Can, Yuksel Ekinci, Setenay Dilek-Fidler
Narrative storytelling, a cornerstone of narrative persuasion theory, plays a crucial role in nurturing robust consumer-brand relationships. Understanding persuasive narratives within the social media domain is critical for destination brands. Hence, this study investigates the impact of realistic narratives on attitudinal destination brand loyalty, mediated by self-congruence and brand attachment across two experiments. Study 1 provides evidence for the superiority of adventure-themed realistic fictional narratives over fantasy one in Facebook advertisements. Study 2 supports the findings of Study 1 with a romantic-themed narrative and a diverse destination in Instagram advertisements. Moreover, Study 2 reveals that consumer fantasy proneness diminishes the influence of realistic fictional narratives on self-congruence. These findings suggest a strategic shift toward realistic narratives over fantasy ones to stimulate self-congruence and cultivate destination brand attachment, ultimately fortifying the bonds between travellers and destination brands.
叙事故事是叙事说服理论的基石,在培养消费者与品牌的稳固关系方面发挥着至关重要的作用。了解社交媒体领域的说服性叙事对目的地品牌至关重要。因此,本研究通过两个实验,以自我一致性和品牌依恋为中介,调查了现实叙事对目的地品牌忠诚度的影响。研究 1 提供了证据,证明在 Facebook 广告中,以探险为主题的现实虚构叙事优于幻想叙事。研究 2 通过 Instagram 广告中以浪漫为主题的叙述和多样化的目的地支持了研究 1 的发现。此外,研究 2 发现,消费者的幻想倾向会削弱现实虚构叙事对自我一致性的影响。这些研究结果表明,在刺激自我一致性和培养目的地品牌依恋的过程中,应战略性地转向现实叙事而非幻想叙事,最终加强旅行者与目的地品牌之间的联系。
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引用次数: 0
Risk perception, efficacies and disaster preparedness: A comparison between people with and without disability 风险意识、效率和备灾:残疾人与非残疾人的比较
IF 2.6 3区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1111/1468-5973.12597
Yingxiang Li, Yung-Fang Chen, Ziyi Wang, Ziqiang Han

Persons with disabilities (PwDs) face a disproportionately high risk due to their physical or mental limitations and socioeconomic barriers during emergencies. To better understand and empower PwDs for disaster preparedness, this study used an updated national representative survey (2021 Federal Emergency Management Agency National Household Survey) from the United States to examine the differences between PwDs and their counterparts concerning disaster preparedness with the guidance of the protection motivation theory. The results of the Tobit regression models indicated that being disabled was negatively correlated with the level of preparedness. Furthermore, disability status significantly and negatively modified the relationship between risk perception and disaster preparedness. Likewise, self-efficacy was less strongly correlated with preparedness activities if people self-reported themselves as having a disability. Moreover, for people with disabilities, their beliefs about the effectiveness of preventive behaviours (response efficacy) predicted decreased adoption of preparedness measures. Promoting disaster risk reduction education, strengthening self-efficacy and developing more inclusive and targeted intervention strategies for PwDs can be used to improve their preparedness degree and capacity for disaster prevention.

由于身体或精神上的限制以及社会经济方面的障碍,残疾人(PwDs)在紧急情况下面临着不成比例的高风险。为了更好地了解残疾人并增强他们的备灾能力,本研究利用美国最新的全国代表性调查(2021 年联邦紧急事务管理局全国家庭调查),在保护动机理论的指导下,研究了残疾人与同龄人在备灾方面的差异。Tobit 回归模型的结果表明,残疾与备灾水平呈负相关。此外,残疾状况对风险感知与备灾之间的关系有明显的负向调节作用。同样,如果人们自称有残疾,则自我效能与备灾活动的相关性较低。此外,对于残疾人来说,他们对预防行为有效性的信念(反应效能)预示着备灾措施采用率的下降。促进减少灾害风险教育、加强自我效能以及为残疾人制定更具包容性和针对性的干预策略,可用于提高他们的备灾程度和防灾能力。
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引用次数: 0
Cash holding by consumers: The role of the perceived characteristics of money 消费者的现金持有量:感知货币特征的作用
IF 8.6 2区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1111/ijcs.13075
Jan Acedański, Grzegorz Maciejewski, Jacek Pietrucha

This study examined why consumers who typically pay electronically at points of sale still carry cash and explained the inertia of demand for cash by considering the additional (perceived by consumers) characteristics of cash. The research was motivated by the growing discussion on why cash, despite the increasing importance of e-payments, remains a significant part of the demand for money. The study focused on psychological factors and consumers' perceptions of certain features of cash, which make it an attractive additional option for precautionary reasons, and therefore, explored beyond the typical discussion of money as a means of payment. The structural equation modeling based on data collected as part of a survey of Polish consumers was used to verify the hypotheses. It was revealed that cash becomes a reserve solution for consumers, which is kept “just in case” to expand the scope of personal freedom and flexibility in making payments and protect against various potential restrictions and threats related to e-payments. Consumers' holding of cash as an additional option depends on three key factors: attitude toward cash, particularly the flexibility it offers, unusual purchasing situations, and perceived card or mobile payment risk, considered as a moderator. In the debate on the future of cash, the study supports the position that cash has a place in the modern payment system, although it plays a different role. Cash is a supportive backup solution. Eliminating cash significantly reduces consumer welfare.

这项研究探讨了为什么通常在销售点使用电子支付的消费者仍然携带现金,并通过考虑现金的额外特征(消费者认为的)来解释现金需求的惯性。这项研究的动机是,尽管电子支付越来越重要,但为什么现金仍然是货币需求的重要组成部分,这一问题的讨论越来越多。这项研究的重点是消费者的心理因素和他们对现金某些特征的看法,这些特征使现金成为一种有吸引力的额外选择,以防万一。在对波兰消费者进行调查的过程中收集了一些数据,并根据这些数据建立了结构方程模型来验证假设。结果显示,现金成为了消费者的一种备用解决方案,"以备不时之需",以扩大个人支付的自由度和灵活性,并抵御与电子支付相关的各种潜在限制和威胁。消费者将现金作为一种额外的选择取决于三个关键因素:对现金的态度,尤其是现金所提供的灵活性;不寻常的购买情况;以及作为调节因素的银行卡或移动支付风险感知。在关于现金未来的讨论中,研究支持这样一种观点,即现金在现代支付系统中占有一席之地,尽管它扮演着不同的角色。现金是一种支持性的备用解决方案。取消现金会大大降低消费者的福利。
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引用次数: 0
Show Your Hand: The Impacts of Fair Pricing Requirements in Procurement Contracting 伸出你的手采购合同中公平定价要求的影响
IF 4.4 2区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1111/1475-679x.12561
BRAD NATHAN
This paper studies how a federal procurement regulation, known as the Truth in Negotiations Act (TINA), affects the competitiveness and execution of government contracts. TINA stipulates how contracting officials (COs) can ensure reasonable prices. Following TINA, for contracts above a certain size threshold, COs can no longer rely solely on their own judgment that a price is reasonable. Instead, they must either require suppliers to provide accounting data supporting their proposed prices or expect multiple bids. Using a regression discontinuity design, I find that above-threshold contracts experience greater competition (i.e., more bids), improved performance (i.e., less frequent renegotiations and cost overruns), and reduced use of the harder-to-monitor cost-plus pricing, compared to below-threshold contracts. These findings suggest that TINA's requirements enhance competition and oversight for above-threshold contracts.
本文研究了联邦采购法规《真实谈判法》(TINA)如何影响政府合同的竞争力和执行。TINA 规定了合同官员(COs)如何确保合理的价格。根据 TINA,对于超过一定规模的合同,合同官员不能再仅仅依靠自己的判断来确定价格是否合理。相反,他们必须要求供应商提供支持其建议价格的会计数据,或者要求多次投标。利用回归不连续设计,我发现与低于阈值的合同相比,高于阈值的合同经历了更大的竞争(即更多的投标)、更好的绩效(即更少的重新谈判和成本超支),以及更少使用难以监控的成本加成定价。这些研究结果表明,TINA 的要求加强了阈值以上合同的竞争和监督。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of government support policies on entrepreneurial orientation and SME performance 政府扶持政策对创业导向和中小企业绩效的影响
IF 5.6 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1007/s11365-024-00993-3
Vanitha Prasannath, Rajendra P. Adhikari, Sarel Gronum, Morgan P. Miles

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are often resource-constrained and motivated by necessity or opportunity. They play an essential role in national economies due to their contributions to employment, human capital development, knowledge spillovers, and social mobility in maintaining diverse entrepreneurial ecosystems. Government support policies (GSP), both financial and nonfinancial, can directly impact SME performance or indirectly by developing an entrepreneurial orientation (EO). Few studies have investigated the important question of how GSP simultaneously may impact both the EO and the performance of an SME. Thus, this paper aims to identify the current understanding of how different forms of GSPs relate to and impact the EO and the performance of SMEs. A systematic literature review was conducted using the PRISMA methodology to synthesize this understanding, resulting in 65 relevant articles from the ABI/INFORM, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science databases. The relationships between the constructs were analyzed using thematic and semantic analyses, employing computer-assisted data analysis software (NVivo 12 and Leximancer 4.5). This resulted in the categorization of GSPs as direct and indirect support policies, with financial and nonfinancial-subcategories, and depicted their pathways of influence on SMEs’ EO and performance. The study found that GSPs have four different pathways by which they can impact performance. Both direct and indirect policies have moderating effects that can magnify the impact of EO on performance. The review established that the direct effect of GSP on EO varies by sector, SME growth-intention, and type of GSP. Based on the findings, we recommend policymakers develop support policies tailored to SMEs’ specific sector and its intentions to enhance performance.

中小型企业(SMEs)往往资源有限,出于需要或机遇。它们在国民经济中发挥着至关重要的作用,因为它们在维持多样化创业生态系统的过程中促进了就业、人力资本发展、知识外溢和社会流动。政府的财政和非财政支持政策(GSP)可以直接影响中小企业的表现,也可以通过培养创业导向(EO)间接影响中小企业的表现。对于 GSP 如何同时影响中小企业的创业导向和绩效这一重要问题,很少有研究进行过调查。因此,本文旨在确定目前对不同形式的全球战略优先事项如何与创业导向和中小企业绩效相关并产生影响的理解。本文采用 PRISMA 方法进行了系统的文献综述,从 ABI/INFORM、ScienceDirect、Scopus 和 Web of Science 数据库中收集了 65 篇相关文章。利用计算机辅助数据分析软件(NVivo 12 和 Leximancer 4.5),通过主题分析和语义分析,分析了各构念之间的关系。研究结果将普惠制分为直接支持政策和间接支持政策,以及财政支持政策和非财政支持政策两个子类别,并描绘了普惠制对中小企业企业经营和绩效的影响路径。研究发现,普惠制有四种影响绩效的不同途径。直接和间接政策都有调节作用,可以放大企业经营对绩效的影响。研究发现,普惠制对企业经营绩效的直接影响因行业、中小企业增长意愿和普惠制类型而异。根据研究结果,我们建议政策制定者针对中小企业的具体行业及其提高绩效的意图制定相应的支持政策。
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引用次数: 0
Awareness marketing: cause-related marketing without direct contribution 意识营销:无直接贡献的事业相关营销
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1108/ejm-09-2022-0649
Elizabeth A. Minton, Frank Gregory Cabano

Purpose

Prior research has investigated the benefit of companies that engage in cause-related marketing initiatives. However, this prior research has not adequately examined cause-related marketing situations when brands raise awareness for a cause without contribution of tangible resources to the cause (i.e. awareness marketing); thus, the purpose of this paper is to introduce and test awareness marketing as a new type of cause-related marketing.

Design/methodology/approach

Through four experimental studies with different sample sources, the authors introduce and examine a new type of cause-related marketing (awareness marketing) as well as identify mediating explanatory mechanisms.

Findings

Awareness marketing produces similarly heightened purchase intentions to other types of cause-related marketing (e.g. financial donation) when compared to situations where cause-related marketing is not used. Awareness marketing can also lead to higher brand authenticity and brand originality perceptions in some situations when compared to cause-related marketing incorporating a financial donation component or when no cause-related marketing is used. Brand perceptions and consumers’ perceived self-brand connection mediate the relationship from cause-related marketing to purchase intentions.

Research limitations/implications

This research is limited by conducting studies in only experimental conditions and in one culture. Theoretical implications are provided to the literature on brand authenticity and self-brand connection. In doing so, the authors explain why awareness marketing is evaluated differently than other types of cause-related marketing or marketing without any cause reference.

Practical implications

Marketers would benefit from using awareness marketing (i.e. raising awareness for a cause without direct contribution to the cause) as a lower investment alternative to traditional cause-related marketing efforts.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first research to introduce awareness marketing as a new type of cause-related marketing and compare it to traditional types of cause-related marketing, thereby providing novel contributions as to how cause-related marketing can effectively increase purchase intentions without making a financial, product or other tangible contribution to a cause.

目的:先前的研究已经调查了参与事业相关营销活动的公司的收益。然而,以往的研究并没有充分研究品牌在不为某一事业贡献有形资源的情况下为该事业提高知名度的事业相关营销情况(即认知营销);因此,本文的目的是将认知营销作为一种新型的事业相关营销进行介绍和测试。研究结果与其他类型的事业相关营销(如经济捐赠)相比,在不使用事业相关营销的情况下,意识营销也能产生类似的购买意向。在某些情况下,与包含经济捐赠成分的事业相关营销相比,或与不使用事业相关营销相比,认知营销也会导致更高的品牌真实性和品牌原创性认知。品牌感知和消费者感知到的自我品牌联系是因果相关营销与购买意向之间关系的中介。本研究为有关品牌真实性和自我品牌联系的文献提供了理论意义。在此过程中,作者解释了为什么对意识营销的评价不同于其他类型的事业相关营销或没有任何事业参考的营销。实践意义将意识营销(即提高对某一事业的意识,但不对该事业做出直接贡献)作为传统事业相关营销努力的一种投资较低的替代方法,将使营销人员受益匪浅。原创性/价值 据作者所知,这是首次将意识营销作为一种新型的事业相关营销进行介绍,并将其与传统的事业相关营销进行比较的研究,从而为事业相关营销如何在不对事业做出经济、产品或其他有形贡献的情况下有效提高购买意向做出了新的贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Diversity targets 多元化目标
IF 4.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1007/s11142-024-09831-x
Wei Cai, Yue Chen, Shiva Rajgopal, Li Azinovic-Yang

From 2008 to 2020, 180 of S&P 1500 have disclosed employee diversity targets. We conduct the first analysis of firms’ employee diversity targets and ask three research questions: (i) who announces diversity targets? (ii) do firms deliver on their diversity targets? (iii) what are the implications of disclosure of such targets for employee hiring and investors? We find that firms with a greater willingness (proxied by past ESG penalties, higher CEO-to-median employee pay ratio, more media coverage, and after #MeToo and Black Lives Matter movements) and ability (proxied by financial strength, a blue-collar heavy labor force, and gender and ethnic minorities on boards) to improve employee diversity are more likely to disclose diversity targets. Exploiting the Revelio dataset of 15,639 firm-years for 1,203 distinct firms from 2008 to 2020, we observe that firms that disclosed a diversity target have indeed hired more diverse employees, but such diversity levels had already increased substantially prior to the target disclosure. Firms with numerical, forward-looking, and rank-and-file employee-targeted goals are associated with greater employee diversity relative to firms that announce other types of diversity goals. Moreover, improved diversity performance does not appear to occur at the cost of employee quality, as measured by Revelio. Overall our results have practical implications for how investors and stakeholders might want to interpret corporate diversity targets.

从 2008 年到 2020 年,S&P 1500 家公司中有 180 家披露了员工多元化目标。我们首次对企业的员工多元化目标进行了分析,并提出了三个研究问题:(i) 谁公布了多元化目标?(ii) 企业是否实现了多元化目标?(iii) 披露此类目标对员工招聘和投资者有何影响?我们发现,更有意愿(以过去的环境、社会和公司治理处罚、更高的首席执行官与中层员工薪酬比、更多的媒体报道以及 #MeToo 和 Black Lives Matter 运动之后为代表)和能力(以财务实力、蓝领劳动力密集以及董事会中的性别和种族少数为代表)改善员工多元化的公司更有可能披露多元化目标。我们利用 2008 年至 2020 年间 1203 家不同公司 15639 个公司年的 Revelio 数据集观察到,披露了多元化目标的公司确实雇佣了更多多元化员工,但这些多元化水平在披露目标之前已经大幅提高。与公布其他类型多元化目标的公司相比,以数字、前瞻性和普通员工为目标的公司与员工多元化程度更高相关。此外,多元化绩效的提高似乎并不以员工素质为代价(以 Revelio 为衡量标准)。总之,我们的研究结果对于投资者和利益相关者如何理解企业多元化目标具有实际意义。
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引用次数: 0
Navigating the spectrum of human-robot collaboration: Addressing robophobia-robophilia in the hospitality industry 在人类与机器人协作的范围内航行:应对酒店业的机器人恐惧症和机器人狂热症
IF 9.9 1区 管理学 Q1 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijhm.2024.103840
Dan Jin

Analyzing human-robot collaboration, this study draws on insights from cognitive science and psychology, with a particular focus on developing strategies for instructing robots and addressing the dynamics of robophobia and robophilia. Robophilia signifies the evolving, positive human-robot relationship, emphasizing the attribution of personhood to robots, while robophobia represents fear of robots. Although hospitality studies have explored anthropomorphism in robots, there is a gap in understanding robophobia impact in this context. This research investigates the transition from robophilia to robophobia and its implications for human-robot interactions in hospitality. Past studies primarily emphasized positive aspects, like anthropomorphism and robot personhood neglecting potential negatives such as robophobia. Guided by analogical transfer theory, fear acquisition theory, and uncanny valley theory using three experimental studies, this research explore factors driving this transition, its impact on embarrassment, customer outrage, and employee sabotage intentions during joint robot interactions. This research enriches our understanding of complex human-robot dynamics, shedding light on robophobia's mediating role within the context of service disruptions.

在分析人类与机器人的协作时,本研究借鉴了认知科学和心理学的见解,尤其侧重于制定指导机器人的策略,以及解决机器人恐惧症和机器人惧怕症的动态问题。机器人恋象征着不断发展的、积极的人机关系,强调机器人的人格属性,而机器人恐惧症则代表着对机器人的恐惧。尽管医院研究已经探讨了机器人拟人化的问题,但在了解机器人恐惧症在此背景下的影响方面还存在空白。本研究探讨了从机器人迷恋到机器人恐惧症的转变及其对酒店业人机互动的影响。以往的研究主要强调拟人化和机器人人格等积极方面,而忽视了机器人恐惧症等潜在的消极方面。在类比迁移理论、恐惧获得理论和不可思议谷理论的指导下,本研究通过三项实验研究,探索了驱动这种转变的因素,及其对机器人联合互动过程中的尴尬、顾客愤怒和员工破坏意图的影响。这项研究丰富了我们对复杂的人与机器人动态关系的理解,揭示了机器人恐惧症在服务中断中的中介作用。
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引用次数: 0
Transformation and resilience in times of change: A historical perspective 变革时代的转型和复原力:历史视角
IF 12.9 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123558
Emelie Rohne Till, Sylvia Schwaag Serger, Tobias Axelsson, Martin Andersson

Our current historical moment is marked by a widespread sense of (ongoing and anticipated) crises, prompting calls to change existing economic, political, social, and environmental systems. This discourse has directed increased scholarly and policy-orientated attention to the concepts of “transformation” and “resilience.” However, beyond attention, these concepts have increasingly adopted a place in rationales for policy action and measurements of its success, highlighting the need for conceptual clarity. In light of this, this paper reviews the use of transformation and resilience in the literature. These concepts appear across a broad spectrum of research fields, ranging from the natural to the social sciences. However, definitions and contexts vary broadly, further underlining the need for clarity. In this paper, we delve specifically into two disciplines: science, technology, and innovation (STI) policy research and economic history. Although unified in their explicit concern with societal change, the disciplines' different understandings of such change, particularly temporal aspects, offer fertile ground for exploring the divergent understandings, uses, and definitions of transformation and resilience in the literature. Through this work, the paper makes two main contributions. First, it produces a nuanced review of how the literature employs the concepts of transformation and resilience. Second, it offers an analysis of how transformation and resilience can be understood in relation to each other from a historical perspective. By historically anchoring these concepts while acknowledging that every time is different, the paper also offers some policy guidance on a key challenge of our era: how to successfully govern resilience and transformation in times of change.

我们当前历史时刻的特点是,人们普遍感到(正在发生的和预期的)危机,从而呼吁改变现有的经济、政治、社会和环境体系。这种论调使学术界和政策导向者越来越关注 "变革 "和 "复原力 "的概念。然而,除了关注之外,这些概念也越来越多地出现在政策行动的依据和对其成功的衡量中,这凸显了概念清晰化的必要性。有鉴于此,本文回顾了转型和复原力在文献中的使用情况。这些概念出现在从自然科学到社会科学等广泛的研究领域。然而,定义和背景却大相径庭,这进一步凸显了明确定义的必要性。在本文中,我们将具体探讨两个学科:科学、技术与创新(STI)政策研究和经济史。虽然这两个学科在明确关注社会变革方面是一致的,但它们对这种变革的不同理解,特别是时间方面的理解,为探讨文献中对变革和恢复力的不同理解、使用和定义提供了肥沃的土壤。通过这项工作,本文做出了两项主要贡献。首先,它对文献中如何使用转型和复原力的概念进行了细致的回顾。其次,本文分析了如何从历史的角度理解转型和复原力之间的关系。在承认每个时代都不尽相同的同时,本文还从历史的角度对这些概念进行了归纳,从而为我们这个时代所面临的一个关键挑战提供了一些政策指导:如何在变革时期成功地管理复原力和转型。
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