Maintaining a consistent water-to-cement (w/c) ratio is critical for the strength development and long-term durability of cementitious materials; however, reliable on-site assessment remains challenging due to environmental variability and uncontrolled water addition. This study proposes a non-destructive, data-driven approach for directly estimating the w/c ratio of fresh cement paste by integrating electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) with a Gradient Boosting model. A total of 538 impedance spectra were collected under controlled laboratory conditions across a w/c range of 0.30–0.45 at early hydration stages. Raw impedance features measured within the 250 kHz–1 Hz frequency range were analyzed without relying on equivalent circuit fitting, and the proposed model achieved a prediction accuracy of up to R2 = 0.85. Statistical preprocessing using median absolute deviation (MAD) filtering improved spectral stability, while frequency-window specification was shown to be critical for robust w/c estimation. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis further revealed that the imaginary impedance component () and the frequency region near 1 kHz dominate the model predictions, reflecting sensitivity to interfacial polarization and ionic relaxation processes associated with early-age microstructural conditions. The proposed EIS–machine learning framework enables a rapid and physically interpretable estimation of the w/c ratio at the paste scale and provides a foundation for future extension to mortar and concrete for practical quality control applications.
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