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Predictive analysis of maritime accident hotspots using capsule neural network optimized by modified orangutan optimization algorithm 基于改进猩猩优化算法的胶囊神经网络海上事故热点预测分析
IF 3.7 2区 生物学 Q1 MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2025.1634490
Junhe Mao, Feng Li, Jiaqing Hu
Maritime accidents are lethal threats to lives, economies, and the environment as a result of which there is a need to develop advanced prediction models for early risk identification. In this paper, a novel framework integrated with Capsule Neural Networks (CapsNets) and a Modified Orangutan Optimization (MOO) algorithm is proposed to predict maritime accident hotspots. The CapsNet model captures spatio-temporal dependencies from the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) dataset, while the MOO fine-tunes hyperparameters toward maximizing model accuracy and generalization. Experimental results suggest that the framework works exceedingly well against the baseline models by achieving an accuracy of 91.2%, while improving precision and recall, and reducing error rates on the contrary. Geospatial heatmaps and decision boundary visualizations strengthen the claim regarding the model’s capacity to identify high-hazard zones and clearly categorize incident types. Compelling case studies illustrate its potential for reducing response time through proactive monitoring and preparedness, which is possible only through integrating information with prediction methods. The study takes maritime safety analytics into a very intelligent and data-driven domain by overcoming shortcomings of existing predictive methods. The framework opens the door to the future integration into rescue resource planning systems, where predicted risk zones will inform strategies for asset deployment.
海上事故是对生命、经济和环境的致命威胁,因此有必要开发先进的预测模型,以便早期识别风险。本文提出了一种结合胶囊神经网络(CapsNets)和改进的猩猩优化(MOO)算法的新型框架,用于海上事故热点预测。CapsNet模型捕获来自全球海上遇险和安全系统(GMDSS)数据集的时空依赖关系,而MOO对超参数进行微调,以最大限度地提高模型的准确性和泛化。实验结果表明,该框架在基线模型的基础上工作得非常好,准确率达到91.2%,同时提高了精度和召回率,相反降低了错误率。地理空间热图和决策边界可视化强化了模型识别高危险区和清晰分类事件类型的能力。引人注目的案例研究表明,它有可能通过主动监测和准备缩短响应时间,而这只有通过将信息与预测方法相结合才能实现。该研究通过克服现有预测方法的缺点,将海上安全分析带入了一个非常智能和数据驱动的领域。该框架为未来整合到救援资源规划系统打开了大门,其中预测的风险区域将为资产部署策略提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Integrated assessment of ecological environment quality in the eastern coastal zone of Hainan Island (China) using GIS and the analytic hierarchy process 基于GIS和层次分析法的海南岛东部海岸带生态环境质量综合评价
IF 3.7 2区 生物学 Q1 MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2025.1748630
Kaizhe Fu, Jiyong Ma, Lin Zhou, Xiaolei Liu, Yue Gou, Mingguang He, Shiyou Zhang, Dayu Bian, Jianhua Guo
Introduction The core eastern coastal cities of Qionghai and Wanning on Hainan Island are facing escalating pressures on their ecological integrity and biodiversity due to intensifying human activities. Methods To evaluate the regional ecological environmental quality, this study established a comprehensive assessment framework based on a systematic analysis of local ecological-geological conditions. Multiple factors across topographic, geologic, hydrologic, pedologic, and anthropogenic dimensions—including topography, stratigraphy, water and soil quality, land use, and ecosystem type—were integrated. Using the Delphi method to determine factor weights and ArcGIS for spatial analysis. Results The assessment revealed that human activity is the dominant influence. The area was classified into four ecological quality categories: excellent, good, moderate, and poor. Notably, key coastal aquaculture zones such as Wancheng Town, Dongao Town, and Xiaohai Bay in Wanning were identified as having relatively poor ecological quality. Discussion/conclusion Consequently, future coastal management must prioritize regulating ecological risk in human-disturbed areas, enhancing pollution control in aquaculture, and strengthening land-use policies to foster sustained regional ecological improvement.
由于人类活动的加剧,海南省东部沿海核心城市琼海和万宁的生态完整性和生物多样性面临越来越大的压力。方法在系统分析区域生态地质条件的基础上,建立区域生态环境质量综合评价框架。综合了地形、地质、水文、土壤学和人为维度的多种因素,包括地形、地层、水土质量、土地利用和生态系统类型。采用德尔菲法确定因子权重,并用ArcGIS进行空间分析。结果人类活动是主要影响因素。该地区被划分为4个生态质量等级:优、良、中、差。值得注意的是,万宁市的万城镇、东澳镇、小海湾等沿海重点养殖区的生态质量相对较差。因此,未来的沿海管理必须优先考虑调节人为干扰地区的生态风险,加强水产养殖业的污染控制,并加强土地利用政策,以促进持续的区域生态改善。
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引用次数: 0
Satellite tracking of tiger sharks in the Eastern Central Atlantic reveals varied space-use patterns and ocean-basin connectivity 对中大西洋东部虎鲨的卫星跟踪显示了不同的空间使用模式和海洋-盆地连通性
IF 3.7 2区 生物学 Q1 MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2025.1706757
Zeddy T. A. Seymour, Francesco Garzon, Ze Luis Monteiro, Rachel T. Graham
Large-bodied sharks, including the tiger shark ( Galeocerdo cuvier ), play crucial roles as top predators in marine ecosystems, regulating lower trophic-level populations and connecting ecosystems across vast distances. However, elasmobranchs, particularly highly migratory species, face significant threats, with over one-third of species threatened with extinction. In the Eastern Central Atlantic (ECA), a data-poor region for sharks and rays, prolific shark fisheries have led to severe declines in elasmobranch populations, highlighting the urgent need for conservation measures. This study presents the first tracking data for tiger sharks from the region and notably Cabo Verde, describing their movements within and outside the archipelago. Fishing surveys conducted between 2016 and 2019 captured and tagged 42 tiger sharks, revealing the presence of both juvenile and adult individuals. Satellite tracking of 12 individuals showed high variability in movement patterns, with some remaining near tagging sites while others undertook long-distance migrations, including a female shark tracked on a complete return migration to Brazil, representing the second-longest recorded movement and the first double trans-Atlantic journey for the species. The study underscores the importance of Cabo Verde as a habitat for tiger sharks throughout their life cycle in the ECA including Cabo Verde and suggests large-scale connectivity of populations across the Atlantic basin. However, the presence of threats such as unregulated small-scale and industrial fishing activities poses conservation challenges. Conservation efforts should focus on implementing effective management measures, notably in critical hotspot habitats, while addressing data deficiencies to ensure the long-term viability of tiger shark populations in the region.
体型庞大的鲨鱼,包括虎鲨(Galeocerdo cuvier),在海洋生态系统中扮演着至关重要的角色,作为顶级捕食者,它们调节着低营养水平的种群,并连接着远距离的生态系统。然而,板鳃目,特别是高度迁徙的物种,面临着严重的威胁,超过三分之一的物种面临灭绝的威胁。在中大西洋东部(ECA),一个缺乏鲨鱼和鳐鱼数据的地区,大量的鲨鱼渔业导致板鳃纲种群数量严重下降,突出表明迫切需要采取保护措施。这项研究首次提供了该地区尤其是佛得角虎鲨的追踪数据,描述了它们在群岛内外的活动。2016年至2019年期间进行的渔业调查捕获并标记了42条虎鲨,显示了幼鲨和成年虎鲨的存在。对12只鲨鱼的卫星追踪显示,它们的移动模式具有很大的可变性,其中一些留在标记地点附近,而另一些则进行了长途迁徙,其中一只雌性鲨鱼被追踪到完全返回巴西的迁徙,这是有记录以来第二长的迁徙,也是该物种的第一次跨大西洋旅行。该研究强调了佛得角作为虎鲨在包括佛得角在内的非洲经委会整个生命周期的栖息地的重要性,并表明大西洋盆地种群的大规模连通性。然而,诸如不受管制的小规模和工业捕鱼活动等威胁的存在构成了保护的挑战。保护工作应侧重于实施有效的管理措施,特别是在关键的热点栖息地,同时解决数据缺陷,以确保该地区虎鲨种群的长期生存能力。
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引用次数: 0
A study of the impact of environmental regulation on land-based marine pollution—evidence from 11 coastal provinces in China 环境规制对陆基海洋污染的影响研究——来自中国11个沿海省份的证据
IF 3.7 2区 生物学 Q1 MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2025.1610100
Hui Wu, Yilin Cao, Yanfen Wang
Based on panel data on Land-Based Marine Pollution from 11 coastal provinces in China spanning 2012 to 2023, this study employs Fixed-Effects, Threshold Regression, and Mediation Models to investigate the impact of Environmental Regulation on Land-Based Marine Pollution. The results show that: (1) there exists an inverted U-shaped relationship between Environmental Regulation and Land-Based Marine Pollution, where regulation beyond a certain threshold continuously reduces pollution levels; (2) threshold regression analysis reveals a single threshold effect in the negative impact of Environmental Regulation on the management of Land-Based Marine Pollution; (3) mediation analysis indicates that Green Technological Innovation and Industrial Structure play a mediating role between Environmental Regulation and pollution management. Specifically, Environmental Regulation reduces Land-Based Marine Pollution by promoting Green Innovation in enterprises and facilitating Industrial upgrading. To improve the management of Land-Based Marine Pollution in China, it is recommended to appropriately strengthen Environmental Regulation intensity and encourage enterprises to engage in Green Technological Innovation and Industrial restructuring, thus balancing environmental management with economic development and providing a scientific basis for pollution control.
基于2012 - 2023年中国11个沿海省份陆基海洋污染面板数据,采用固定效应、阈值回归和中介模型研究了环境规制对陆基海洋污染的影响。结果表明:(1)环境规制与陆源海洋污染之间存在倒u型关系,超过一定阈值的规制会持续降低污染水平;(2)阈值回归分析表明,环境规制对陆源性海洋污染管理的负面影响存在单阈值效应;(3)中介分析表明,绿色技术创新和产业结构在环境规制与污染治理之间起中介作用。具体而言,环境法规通过促进企业绿色创新和促进产业升级来减少陆源海洋污染。为提高中国陆源性海洋污染治理水平,建议适当加大环境监管力度,鼓励企业进行绿色技术创新和产业结构调整,使环境管理与经济发展相协调,为污染治理提供科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of wind stress formulation on Gulf Stream pathway and variability 风应力形成对墨西哥湾流路径和变率的影响
IF 3.7 2区 生物学 Q1 MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2025.1739630
Eric P. Chassignet, Xiaobiao Xu
Current feedback affects surface motions and the numerical experiments presented in this paper highlight its importance when modeling the Gulf Stream. This is not a new notion, but its implementation in the high-resolution 1/50° North and Equatorial Atlantic HYCOM model configuration not only allows us to quantify its impact on the Gulf Stream pathway and variability via detailed comparisons to in-situ and altimetry data, but also to evaluate the latest mean dynamic topography derived from combining altimeter and satellite gravity data, drifters, and hydrological profiles. Introduction of the current feedback induces an “eddy-killing” effect that can reduce the level of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the model by as much as 30%, but this drop in EKE can also be compensated by decreasing the model’s explicit viscosity accordingly. The current feedback is most effective at damping energy at scales above 50–60 km while the reduction in explicit viscosity leads to an increase in small-scale energy. Addition of the current feedback also does result in a much more realistic distribution of the sea surface height variability and the resulting mean field. The detailed comparison of the model results to altimeter data and in-situ measurements leads us to state that the latest mean dynamic topography from CNES-CLS underestimates the maximum Gulf Stream velocity by approximately 10% and that the representation of the shelf circulation may be underestimated.
电流反馈影响地表运动,文中的数值实验突出了它在模拟墨西哥湾流时的重要性。这并不是一个新概念,但它在高分辨率1/50°北大西洋和赤道大西洋HYCOM模型配置中的实施,不仅使我们能够通过详细比较原位和测高数据来量化其对墨西哥湾流路径和变动性的影响,而且还可以评估结合高度计和卫星重力数据,漂移和水文剖面得出的最新平均动态地形。电流反馈的引入引起了“涡流抑制”效应,可以将模型中的涡流动能(EKE)水平降低多达30%,但EKE的下降也可以通过相应降低模型的显式粘度来补偿。电流反馈在50-60 km以上的尺度上阻尼能量最有效,而显粘度的降低导致小尺度能量的增加。此外,电流反馈的加入也确实使海面高度变异性和由此产生的平均场的分布更加真实。将模式结果与高度计数据和现场测量结果进行详细比较,我们认为CNES-CLS的最新平均动力地形低估了墨西哥湾流的最大速度约10%,并且可能低估了陆架环流的表现。
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引用次数: 0
Fermentation of rice milling by-products can completely replace soybean meal in the diet of Oreochromis niloticus fingerlings 碾米副产物发酵可以完全替代尼罗鱼鱼种饲料中的豆粕
IF 3.7 2区 生物学 Q1 MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2025.1718289
Mark Henry F. De Leon, Dinah Grace D. Bienes, Mary Jessa Bell B. Pagapulan, Emelyn Joy G. Mameloco, Vyenge Erre D. Gayosa, Fredson H. Huervana, Carmelo S. del Castillo, Rex Ferdinand M. Traifalgar
The expansion and intensification of aquaculture have been widely adopted to support large-scale production, creating a reliance on high-protein feed ingredients such as soybean meal (SBM) and fish meal (FM). These ingredients, however, are costly and unsustainable, emphasizing the need for alternative plant-based protein sources for aquafeeds. This study assessed the nutritional and feed value of fermented rice bran meal (FRBM) as a substitute for SBM in the diet of tilapia ( Oreochromis niloticus ) fingerlings. Five diets were formulated with FRBM replacing SBM at 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%, and were fed to fingerlings over a 60-day period. Results showed that FRBM could fully replace SBM, with growth-promoting effects particularly observed at 25% replacement. Survival, percentage weight gain, feed conversion ratio (FCR), and specific growth rate (SGR) did not differ significantly among the treatments with varying FRBM levels. No significant differences in carcass composition (protein, lipid, and ash) were observed among tilapia fed with diets containing FRBM replacement. The apparent protein and dry matter digestibility coefficients of FRBM are 91.52% and 66.67%, respectively. Histological examination also revealed no intestinal abnormalities, even at the highest level of FRBM inclusion. Overall, the findings suggest that solid-state fermented rice bran can fully replace soybean meal in the diet of O. niloticus . In addition, its use presents a practical option to help meet the growing protein requirements in aquafeeds and to promote the sustainable expansion of tilapia aquaculture.
水产养殖的扩大和集约化已被广泛采用,以支持大规模生产,造成对高蛋白饲料成分的依赖,如豆粕(SBM)和鱼粉(FM)。然而,这些成分昂贵且不可持续,因此需要替代植物性蛋白质来源作为水产饲料。本研究评价了发酵米糠粉在罗非鱼(Oreochromis niloticus)鱼种饲料中替代发酵米糠粉的营养价值和饲料价值。配制5种饲料,分别以0%、25%、50%、75%和100%的比例替代鱼粉,饲喂60 d。结果表明,FRBM可以完全替代SBM,在替代25%时,促进生长的效果尤其明显。不同FRBM水平处理的成活率、增重率、饲料系数和特定生长率均无显著差异。在罗非鱼的胴体组成(蛋白质、脂质和灰分)方面,饲喂含有FRBM替代品的饲料未观察到显著差异。FRBM的蛋白质和干物质表观消化系数分别为91.52%和66.67%。组织学检查也未发现肠道异常,即使在FRBM的最高水平。综上所述,固体发酵米糠可以完全替代黄豆粕在niloticus的饲料中。此外,它的使用提供了一个实用的选择,可以帮助满足水产饲料中不断增长的蛋白质需求,并促进罗非鱼水产养殖的可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
High precision lightweight prediction of short term sea surface temperature in the East China Sea: TFLinear model 东海短期海面温度的高精度轻量化预测:tlinear模型
IF 3.7 2区 生物学 Q1 MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2025.1674064
Bingjie Xiang, Kai Tang, Chaopeng Li, Xiaochun Cao
Sea surface temperature (SST) serves as a critical indicator for assessing marine ecosystem health. Given the increasing human exploitation of marine resources, accurate SST prediction has garnered significant attention. While existing neural network based approaches effectively capture spatio temporal dependencies within SST data, they often suffer from high computational complexity. To address this, we propose TFLinear, a lightweight SST prediction model that incorporates a novel Residual Temporal Frequency (RTF) module which combines residual linking, depthwise separable convolution, and fast Fourier transform (FFT) into the DLinear framework. The method operates in three key stages: spatial feature extraction via depthwise separable convolution, time frequency decoupling of SST sequences using FFT to isolate trend, seasonal, and transient components, and multi step prediction through dedicated linear channels followed by component wise fusion. We evaluated TFLinear using OSTIA SST data from the East China Sea for 1 to 10 days forecasts, comparing it against state of the art benchmarks. Results show that TFLinear achieves superior performance in MAE, RMSE, and R², with improvements of 7.9% to 23%, while maintaining significantly lower computational cost — demonstrating strong potential for efficient and accurate SST forecasting in practical scenarios.
海表温度(SST)是评价海洋生态系统健康的重要指标。随着人类对海洋资源的开发利用不断增加,准确预测海温已引起人们的广泛关注。虽然现有的基于神经网络的方法可以有效地捕获海温数据中的时空依赖性,但它们往往具有较高的计算复杂度。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了一种轻量级的SST预测模型tlinear,该模型结合了一种新的残余时间频率(RTF)模块,该模块将残差链接、深度可分离卷积和快速傅立叶变换(FFT)结合到DLinear框架中。该方法分为三个关键阶段:通过深度可分离卷积提取空间特征;使用FFT对海表温度序列进行时频解耦,分离趋势、季节和瞬态分量;通过专用线性通道进行多步预测,然后进行分量融合。我们利用东中国海1 - 10天的OSTIA海温预报数据对tlinear进行了评估,并将其与最先进的基准进行了比较。结果表明,tlinear在MAE、RMSE和R²上取得了较好的性能,提高了7.9%至23%,同时保持了较低的计算成本,显示了在实际场景中高效准确预测海温的强大潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Sedimentary evolution and paleoclimate conditions in the Yangtze river estuary across the late Pleistocene to early Holocene 长江口晚更新世至全新世早期沉积演化与古气候条件
IF 3.7 2区 生物学 Q1 MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2025.1750639
Siqi Li, Gaoyuan Sun, Jianuo Chen, Kai Liu, Ren Jiang, Xiaohua Zhou, Tianchen He
Due to the complexity of sedimentary evolution since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE), sedimentary responses across different regions have varied significantly, but the sedimentary record on the northern flank of the estuary remains incomplete. Here we integrate analyses of sedimentology, chemical weathering indices (CIA and K/Al), total organic carbon (TOC), and organic carbon isotopes (δ 13 C org ) from the QDQ2 core to reconstruct the regional environmental evolution from 36.1 to 8.4 cal kyr BP. Facies analysis demonstrates that QDQ2 succession documents environmental shift from terrestrial distributary channels to marine delta fronts. Sedimentary evidence of marine transgression during the Last Deglacial Period is identified, and facies shifts were driven by climate events and sea-level variations. Furthermore, the Gehu transgression did not influence the facies succession of study area. Instead, variations in CIA and K/Al ratios indicate modification in the hinterland chemical weathering intensity, likely driven by the warm climate characteristics of Marine Isotopic Stage 3a (MIS 3a).
由于末次盛冰期以来长江口沉积演化的复杂性,不同区域的沉积响应差异较大,但长江口北侧的沉积记录并不完整。结合沉积学、化学风化指标(CIA和K/Al)、总有机碳(TOC)和有机碳同位素(δ 13corg)的分析,重建了QDQ2岩心36.1 ~ 8.4 cal kyr BP的区域环境演化。相分析表明,QDQ2序列记录了从陆地分流河道到海洋三角洲前缘的环境转变。在末次冰期确定了海侵的沉积证据,其相移是由气候事件和海平面变化驱动的。此外,格湖海侵对研究区的相演替没有影响。相反,CIA和K/Al比值的变化表明内陆化学风化强度的改变,可能是由海洋同位素阶段3a (MIS 3a)的温暖气候特征驱动的。
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引用次数: 0
Interactive effects of hyposalinity and nitrate loading on growth, physiology, and nitrogen status of the seagrass, Halodule wrightii 低盐度和硝酸盐负荷对海草生长、生理和氮状态的交互影响
IF 3.7 2区 生物学 Q1 MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2025.1712666
Joseph L. Kowalski, Hudson DeYoe, Kirk Cammarata, Kristina Vatcheva
The study goal was to examine the interactive physiological effects of two freshwater inflow stressors, nitrate pulses coupled with salinity decrease, on the seagrass Halodule wrightii . A microcosm experiment was designed to approximate an observed freshwater inflow event. Over a 13-day period plants were subjected to three sequential salinity drops (S35→ S23→ S15→ S5) with nitrate-nitrogen added simultaneously at 0, 30 or 60 µ M . For comparisons, the Control was no salinity change and no nitrate added denoted by S35/No N. Measurements of H. wrightii shoot production, photosynthesis, respiration, quantum efficiency, %N, C:N ratios and δ 15 N values which were made after each salinity drop revealed differing effects of low versus high N levels under S35 compared to reduced salinity. Compared to the Control at the experimental endpoint, leaf net photosynthesis: respiration (P:R) ratio decreased 3-fold for hyposalinity + High N addition (S5/High N) largely due to increased respiration. Leaf %N increased and C:N ratio decreased concomitantly with both stressors, with S5/High N having the highest %N and lowest C:N ratio. While the magnitude of the effect was related to the amount of added N at S35, there were different effects of Low versus High N at low salinity (S5). The trends of P:R ratio, leaf %N and C:N ratio are consistent with increased respiration, uptake of added N, and depletion of carbon reserves. However, δ 15 N suggested that added NO3- was taken up by leaves at S35, but not at S5. The increased %N at S5 may be due to translocation of amino acid N from rhizomes-roots to leaves. Metabolic networks were hypothesized to be regulated differently at 30 versus 60 µ M NO3- under conditions of hyposalinity. These findings add to the growing evidence that simultaneous stressors typical of substantial freshwater inflow events, hyposalinity and nitrate loading, could adversely affect H. wrightii .
本研究的目的是研究硝酸盐脉冲和盐度降低这两种淡水流入压力源对白盐海草的交互生理效应。设计了一个微观实验来模拟观测到的淡水流入事件。在13天的时间里,植物接受三次连续的盐度下降(S35→S23→S15→S5),同时添加0、30或60µM的硝酸盐氮。对照为不改变盐度,不添加以S35/ no N表示的硝酸盐。对每次降盐后黑穗槐芽部产量、光合作用、呼吸作用、量子效率、%N、C:N比率和δ 15 N值的测量显示,S35下低氮与高氮对降低盐度的影响不同。与对照组相比,低盐度+高氮(S5/高氮)处理的叶片净光合作用:呼吸(P:R)比降低了3倍,主要原因是呼吸作用增加。叶片%N升高,C:N降低,其中S5/高N的%N最高,C:N最低。虽然影响的大小与S35的施氮量有关,但低盐度下低氮与高氮的影响不同(S5)。P:R比、叶片%N和C:N的变化趋势与呼吸增加、添加氮的吸收和碳储量的消耗一致。然而,δ 15 N表明添加的NO3-在S35时被叶片吸收,而在S5时不被吸收。S5时%N的增加可能是由于氨基酸N从根茎-根向叶的转运所致。假设在低盐度条件下,代谢网络在30µM NO3-和60µM NO3-下受到不同的调节。这些发现增加了越来越多的证据,表明大量淡水流入事件的典型同时压力因素,低盐度和硝酸盐负荷,可能对赖特氏螺蛳产生不利影响。
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引用次数: 0
Ecological adaptability assessment for adaptive management of island social–ecological systems: a potential–constraint framework applied to Dongtou District, China 海岛社会生态系统适应性管理的生态适应性评价:一个潜在约束框架——以东头区为例
IF 3.7 2区 生物学 Q1 MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2025.1722774
Yunyun Xiang, Cifang Wu
Introduction Artificial Island social–ecological systems face escalating, compound pressures from global environmental change and intensive human activities, while conventional post-hoc restoration approaches are often insufficient to ensure long-term sustainability. We propose an ecological adaptability assessment framework to support proactive, policy-responsive adaptive management. Methods We develop a potential–constraint framework that couples scenario-based spatial modeling with explicit policy feedback. Using Dongtou District (Zhejiang Province, China) as a representative case, we quantify trade-offs between ecological resilience and development potential under alternative policy trajectories. A multidimensional indicator system—covering habitat structure, ecosystem function, socio-economic conditions, marine utilization, and governance responses—is integrated into a gridded modeling platform to identify adaptive management pathways toward 2030. Results Ecological adaptability exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity: high-adaptability zones align with ecological reserves, whereas low-adaptability zones cluster on densely inhabited and industrialized islands. Scenario simulations indicate that policy orientation decisively reshapes adaptability patterns. Among the evaluated pathways, the eco–economic coordination scenario delivers the most balanced configuration, improving spatial connectivity and mitigating landscape fragmentation. Discussion The proposed framework provides a transferable, policy-linked approach that bridges ecological evaluation with spatial governance, offering actionable evidence to design and prioritize island adaptive management strategies.
人工岛屿社会生态系统面临着全球环境变化和人类活动加剧的复合压力,而传统的事后修复方法往往不足以确保长期的可持续性。我们提出了一个生态适应性评估框架,以支持主动的、政策响应的适应性管理。我们开发了一个潜在约束框架,将基于场景的空间建模与明确的策略反馈相结合。本文以浙江省东头区为例,量化了不同政策轨迹下生态弹性与发展潜力之间的权衡关系。将涵盖栖息地结构、生态系统功能、社会经济条件、海洋利用和治理响应的多维指标系统整合到网格建模平台中,以确定到2030年的适应性管理路径。结果生态适应性表现出明显的空间异质性,高适应性区与生态保护区排列一致,低适应性区集聚在人口密集的工业化岛屿上。情景模拟表明,政策导向决定性地重塑了适应性模式。其中,生态经济协调路径配置最均衡,增强了空间连通性,缓解了景观破碎化。拟议的框架提供了一个可转移的、与政策相关的方法,将生态评估与空间治理联系起来,为设计和优先考虑岛屿适应性管理策略提供了可操作的证据。
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引用次数: 0
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Frontiers in Marine Science
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